2️⃣4️⃣🎁🎄 Doing something new for Advent this year: one great data journalism piece per day until Dec 24. I’m teaching a data journalism course @hertieschool.bsky.social next semester, so this is partly selfish homework. But maybe interesting for others too.

Had a great time at the @zweitstimme.bsky.social Workshop on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behavior. I presented my work on why minority groups vote, and how these motivations relate to turnout among LGB and ethnic minorities. Amazing conversations and a very inspiring group!

So great to be in Berlin for this fantastic @zweitstimme.bsky.social workshop! I presented joint work with @bjarneck.bsky.social and @bramwauters.bsky.social on the limited effects of mobilizing measures following the abolition of compulsory voting in Flanders.

Had an absolutely amazing time! Great presentations + discussions, incl. impressive data collections from 160 treatments to 30,000 respondents Thank you for the immaculate organization @eliaskoch.bsky.social @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social @hannahrajski.bsky.social @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social

🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop! We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour. Today’s sessions: 👉 Panel I – Elites 👉 Panel II – Participation 👉 Panel III – Party Strategies Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!

Wir suchen Wahlhilfenhelfer zur #Kommunalwahl in #Hessen 2026. 👉 Anmeldung zur Infoveranstaltung: tudaipol.limesurvey.net/994956?lang=de

Two fantastic days of the annual conference of the #AKWahlen are now behind us. Many thanks for the many excellent presentations, the friendly atmosphere, and to the local Berlin team for the fabulous organisation on site! ❤️ Watch out for the special issue in @electoralstudies.bsky.social!

It was a pleasure to chair and to be the discussant of the papers of such a wonderful @apsa.bsky.social panel! Thanks you all @hannahrajski.bsky.social @marystegmaier.bsky.social @bjerome-t.bsky.social

🗳️ The DFG-funded project @zweitstimme.bsky.social drew widespread attention from media and scholars in the context of the 2025 German federal election. Besides national-level party vote shares, they forecasted district-level vote shares for candidates, and whether districts become “vacant”. (1/5)

EPSA have announced that they will hold a conference in July 2026. 😵‍💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA. 👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things. A short 🧵

Feels like a good time to share this call for papers. Can't wait for EPSS 2026!

Truly honored to be at the #WPM summer school and grateful for the chance to connect with so many inspiring women*. Looking forward to the next days! Big thanks to the organizers for making it all happen!

Interested in election forecasting? 📊🗳️ Check out @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social and my talk on different forecasting models for the 2025 German election and insights into our Zweitstimme.org research project.

‼️ There are a few more days left to apply for the PhD positions in my group at KU Leuven. Make sure to send in applications by July 4! 👇

Really enjoyed Day 1 of #EPSA25 here in Madrid! ☀️ Today I’ll be presenting insights from our Zweitstimme.org pre-election survey on Germans’ electoral expectations 🇩🇪🗳️ 🔍 What affected citizens’ accuracy?
🔍 Can financial incentives improve accuracy? 
VOTBEH – When do campaigns work
📅 11:20
📍 OA.10

🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨 We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community. 🔗 epssnet.org Here’s a thread with everything you need to know. 🧵

🚨 Excited to see my first solo-authored paper now published in IJPOR! 🚨 Do election outcomes affect participation in post-election surveys? And specifically, do election winners respond more than losers? The short answer: not really. The slightly longer answer: 🧵👇 academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...

🕑 Join us *today* at 13:45 CEST for the talk 'Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches' by @hannahrajski.bsky.social (University of Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke University). ⬇️ Zoom link and details below

I'm on my way to Mannheim, looking forward to talk about our forecasting project (zweitstimme.org) with @hannahrajski.bsky.social. Join us at the MZES or online 🤗

📣 If you are interested in election forecasting, cancel your plans! CDSS doctoral candidate @hannahrajski.bsky.social and co-author Dr. @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social will be sharing their work at the MZES Social Science Data Lab. Time, location, and abstract below. Don’t miss it.

Looking forward to presenting our latest insights from forecasting the German federal election (zweitstimme.org) with @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social. Join us at the MZES or online!

New #openaccess "Citizen forecasting in a mixed electoral system: The 2021 German federal election as a test case" (with Andreas Murr, @lstoetze.bsky.social and @markkayser.bsky.social) in International Journal of Forecasting. doi.org/10.1016/j.ij... 1/

New paper out at @electoralstudies.bsky.social with Michael Lewis-Beck. We show that political economy models - based on inflation rate, government/prime minister approval, and the number of terms in office - performed well in forecasting CON vote share ahead of the 2024 GE doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

❗ Reminder: Apply now for a fellowship at the MZES, University of Mannheim! 📅 Deadline: 26 April ❗ Please note the updated link 😊👇🏻 www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/en/news/deta...

As speakers of the @dvpw.bsky.social's working group Elections and Public Opinion, we invite proposals for a special issue on the 2025 German federal election (to be submitted to Electoral Studies). See: www.dvpw.de/gliederung/a... Also see the previous SI: www.sciencedirect.com/special-issu...

Was denken eigentlich Wähler:innen, wie die Wahl ausgeht? @hannahrajski.bsky.social hat auf zweitstimme.org unsere Bürger:innen Vorhersage mit ~20'000 Befragten beschrieben. zweitstimme.org/posts/blog/c...

Wir bei zweitstimme.org haben in den letzten Tagen über 20.000 Menschen gefragt, was Sie denken, wie die Wahl ausgeht. Und auch, was sie erwarten, wer ihren Walkreis gewinnt. zweitstimme.org/posts/blog/c... #citizenforecasting #btw25

Our CfA closes today. Last chance to apply ⬇️

🚨 CfA: MZES-DVPW Conference "Methods of Political Science" 🗓️ Mannheim, Mar 27-28, 2025 ⏰ Deadline: Dec 16, 2024 🔗Apply via sosci.sowi.uni-mannheim.de/mzes-dvpw-me... @gessler.bsky.social, @aleininger.bsky.social, @hannahrajski.bsky.social, Oliver Rittmann & I look forward to your submissions!

🚨great opportunity for PhD students: come join us at the MZES as visiting fellow 👉🏻 www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/d7/en/news/i... Explicitly open to a wide range of research within social science. 🗓️ Application deadline: 24 November #polisky

There’s a job in our team to forecast the 2025 German federal election 👇

Ein paar Anmerkungen zu Umfragen beim @DLF : www.deutschlandfunk.de/afd-umfragen...

Are you a postdoc working on European social research? Then join us as the MZES as Visiting Fellow! Apply 📅 until 3 Dec 2023 to work at the MZES for 2-4 weeks. Funding for accommodation, travel, daily allowance. Interested? 👉 www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/d7/en/news/i... polisky #sociology #socialpsyc