The elimination of USAID was an unforgivable moral atrocity that should haunt Trump, Elon Musk and Marco Rubio for the rest of their days and beyond

You mean "breadjudicial"?

The factional grifters will hate this, but the Mamdani-Spanberger-Sherrill axis actually suggests the outlines of a broad, emerging Dem coalition organized around both anti-Trump *and* affordability politics, not a party bitterly divided against itself.

@jamellebouie.net Why the Exorcist steps?

Right wing billionaires should clearly fund more sci-fi.

Thought about scientific consensus recently? We have a new DP @i4replication.bsky.social that probes into the famous replication debate between Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson (AJR) and Albouy - and how experts assess this debate. We find that they disagree. 1/8 www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...

Worth a friendly reminder that the next set of nation-wide No Kings protests are set for October 18th. There's probably one in your area. I am not generally a crowds or protests sort of person, but there's one in my town and I'll be at it on the 18th. www.nokings.org

All is not well at Elsevier richardtol.substack.com/p/fraud-and-...

One way to address the "its not always sunny or windy" oil and gas disinfo

This seems bad. People unironically calling this their Reichstag Fire moment. 🚩

Don't like stanning for google docs but this looks good.

Not to make light of the Authoritarian take over, but we need more #econtwitter posting too

Oh my milk is too milky, get an espresso.

This man can't even figure out which century he's supposed to buy his suit in. He is wearinf a Double Albert pocket watch chain on a double breasted vest with a (strangely) non-double breasted suit with double pockets! You can't tell me this man ain't gonna double count the jobs numbers!

Coincidence?

This man can't even figure out which century he's supposed to buy his suit in. He is wearinf a Double Albert pocket watch chain on a double breasted vest with a (strangely) non-double breasted suit with double pockets! You can't tell me this man ain't gonna double count the jobs numbers!

At The Unjournal, we compensate experts for evaluating and rating research with impact potential. We committed to pay $450 per evaluation on average - including base pay, incentives, and prizes.

“The well-being cost-effectiveness of StrongMinds and Friendship Bench: Combining a systematic review and meta-analysis with charity-related data” - 2 anonymous evaluators “Global potential for natural regeneration in deforested tropical regions” - @cannoncloud.bsky.social, anonymous evaluator

Argument mostly resolved by this super interesting and depressing figure: doi.org/10.31223/X57... Clearly we're in a new normal. Open question - do we know yet whether the new normal is more like 2020/21 or more like 2023? I suspect the latter, since Canada is so darn big & it keeps burning. /end

It’d be nice if night lights worked for accurately predicting GDP changes, but our best models (with many predictors) explain 60%. Given the LED mess and that lagged BLS data are top predictors, a biased BLS might still be better. Plus, you’re swapping dependency on the BLS for NASA.

It’d be nice if night lights worked for accurately predicting GDP changes, but our best models (with many predictors) explain 60%. Given the LED mess and that lagged BLS data are top predictors, a biased BLS might still be better. Plus, you’re swapping dependency on the BLS for NASA.

"Common ownership grew dramatically in the US economy from 1995 to 2021. It could raise producer profits at the expense of consumer surplus & lead to a substantial deadweight loss." Recently accepted paper by @florianederer.bsky.social & Pellegrino: www.restud.com/a-tale-of-tw... #econsky #REStud

Interesting study from Germany on e-bikes and the modes they replace: "43.1% of electric bicycle trips and 63.2% of electric bicycle mileage would have been undertaken using a car if no e-bike had been available, highlighting their substantial potential to reduce transport-related CO2 emissions"

No no no, you are ~neoclassical~ by tautology. You think humans are robots, and capital and labor are endlessly substitutable for natural resources. Keep your Dobb Couglas production functions away from innocent childens' eyes!

🚨Quote slam alert 🚨. Stata command the_book with option method(every_trick) clearly superior with advanced inference neatly incorporated. No need to mess around with vce() and endless variance matrix wrangling. Dynamic plots of estimates and weights built-in.

🚨 DiD incoming 🚨 Shock increase of teaching staff in BW due to a correction of a bug in some government budget code.

🚨Quote slam alert 🚨. Stata command the_book with option method(every_trick) clearly superior with advanced inference neatly incorporated. No need to mess around with vce() and endless variance matrix wrangling. Dynamic plots of estimates and weights built-in.

If there is one lesson to draw from the history of fascism in the interwar period in Europe, it is this: Democracy falls if and when mainstream conservatives and centrist/center-right elites decide to make common cause with extremists because they consider the “radical Left” the more acute threat.

Abuse of power in personnel relationships ⇔ abuse of power in public duties.

It depends on the strength of the income and substitution effect and if research output is a normal or inferior good. Assuming Labour hates research (plausible given their budget) then higher quality researchers lower the cost of research output, increasing "real income" which decreases demand.

The macro-rebound in energy efficiency interventions is important yet hard to study, they say. Here's our attempt to model & evaluate what happens on the "macro" (i.e. community) level after promotion of energy-efficient biomass cookstoves in Rwanda. academic.oup.com/wber/advance...

@jrgptrs.bsky.social at #GDE2025

✨ Just out on @voxdev.bsky.social: our blog on firstborn daughters, son preference, and family dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa — co-authored with @mariahdb.bsky.social Take a look 👇👇👇

How do firstborn daughters influence long-term family dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa? To learn more, read today's article w/ @ggenicot.bsky.social sky.social & @mariahdb.bsky.social:

We are opening three full professor positions in beautiful Innsbruck!

I had an interesting time evaluating an already published paper. Cool idea, but it seems like earth science folks could definitely benefit from bringing in economist//social scientist when doing machine learning and causal inference. #InterDisciplinary

Williams et al (2024, Nature) model the biophysical potential for forest regeneration. Both Unjournal.org evaluators agree: methodological concerns fundamentally challenge the validity/utility of the modeling & the 215 Mha estimate.

2/ Here’s our new story about how the vacuum left after the U.S. abandoned its humanitarian commitments has destabilized some of the most fragile locations in the world:

Connectivity and Rural Development: Examining India’s Rural Road Construction Scheme: Kumar, Santosh; Shandal, Monica; Zucker, Ariel

I have a large shell about the size of a car on top of my car gyrating back and forth at 45mph, which is my right to do in a free country. How do I know these machines won't fine me for going 75 in a 30 due to the speed of my gyrating accoutrement?

I have a large shell about the size of a car on top of my car gyrating back and forth at 45mph, which is my right to do in a free country. How do I know these machines won't fine me for going 75 in a 30 due to the speed of my gyrating accoutrement?

This arbitrary tariff stuff is another example of full on dictorial-ness that has been normalized. Gotta un-normalize it! Why is it not the second paragraph in every article covering a new capricious act? #preachingtothechoir

I think a smart high school teacher/curriculum instructor would collect all these examples and just blast through them in 1 or 2 lessons just to make sure everyone is on the same page.

My wife keeps catching me using the word breakiful instead of breakable, but it somehow makes intuitive sense in my brain: full of breakiness. I have to say it three or four times before it starts to sound wrong to me.

cannoncloud.github.io/shiny-app/ I added a page on my website that explains OLS/TWFE problems and how you can explore those problem with the app and try to fix them with various new robust DID estimators.

I have gone perhaps too far. Now you can incorporate parallel trend violations and factor loadings correlated with treatment timing. You can see when unit-linear trends and a synthetic DID estimator fixes the new problems. Stop me before I add more buttons to the control panel.

I have gone perhaps too far. Now you can incorporate parallel trend violations and factor loadings correlated with treatment timing. You can see when unit-linear trends and a synthetic DID estimator fixes the new problems. Stop me before I add more buttons to the control panel.

We did not want to start the week like this, but here we are. Yet again our chair’s inbox is filled with messages from replicators who have opened “replication” folders only to find names, Social Insurance Numbers, mental-health diagnoses and incomes of study participants. 🧵

"For me, the answer now lies in refusal, the withdrawal of participation from systems that require dishonesty as the price of belonging." Today I am resigning from the National Science Board and the Library of Congress Scholars Council. I wrote about my decision in TIME. time.com/7285045/resi...