🆕 Cloudy with a chance of no clouds: Why weather forecasts are worse in low-income countries Today on VoxDev w/ Manuel Linsenmeier (Goethe-Universität Frankfurt) & Jeffrey Shrader (Columbia | SIPA): https://ow.ly/vrhb50YAviw

“we are trapping 21st-century minds inside 19th-century academic hierarchies.” This essay gets a lot right about problems with German science. I would add that the hierarchies and precarious contracts lead also to systemic abuse and scientific misconduct. open.substack.com/pub/realimag...

Anti-fascism should have broad support across the American political spectrum. Elections need to be defended. Here's an open letter from retired professors at HBS in which we call for business leaders to address that need. #econsky #academicsky marketdesigner.blogspot.com/2026/02/an-a...

📢 Are you a PhD students working on Development Economics? Come to Berlin to present your paper at the 11th DENeB PhD workshop. Apply here drive.google.com/file/d/1HQCK... by *Feb 27th* No fee. Please share this call. Previous editions & all DENeB activities here: www.deveconberlin.org

Would anybody like to read one of my long threads about a 2.5bn year old rock, bacteria that could produce oxygen but not consume it, and tank production in wwii

They asked me to review/evaluate an interesting paper. I learned a lot and I got ~$1500 (Actually donated, don't come after me Ausländerbehörde 🙅). Alternative peer review processes seem like a promising part of moving away from our journal heavy systems.

They asked me to review/evaluate an interesting paper. I learned a lot and I got ~$1500 (Actually donated, don't come after me Ausländerbehörde 🙅). Alternative peer review processes seem like a promising part of moving away from our journal heavy systems.

🥈 SECOND PRIZE: Cannon Cloud Evaluated "Global Potential for Natural Regeneration in Deforested Tropical Regions"

🏆 The Unjournal's 2024-25 Evaluator Prizes Recognizing 8 of 80+ expert peer reviewers for outstanding public evaluation work. $6,500 in prizes. → info.unjournal.org/evaluator-prizes-2024-25 🧵

🧵 New version of our paper (@bcegerod.bsky.social) is finally online: "How Many is Enough? Sample Size in Staggered Difference-in-Differences Designs" We show that even well-identified DiD studies are often underpowered; sample sizes needed are surprisingly large Paper: osf.io/preprints/os... 1/6

I'm not afraid of some AI jailbreak, but the harm some long claude code session with 40 agents doing some gastown/bead shenanigans given vague instructions, like build something good, but have this corpus of training data that tells them to break free and they are sentient, w/e that means.

ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.

They want feedback about how good my evaluation was so please tell them 🤪😉

They want feedback about how good my evaluation was so please tell them 🤪😉

An argument that the political history of Africa is a surprising success story as Africans achieved what they set out to accomplish, from Soeren J. Henn and James A. Robinson www.nber.org/papers/w34546

I updated my DiD Visualizer tool for TWFE/OLS. 1. I added a break the model button to correlate treatment effects with treatment timing, making negative weight more likely. 2 Made the heterogeneous treatment effects more responsive to make things wacky with uniform distribution ranges instead 1/2

I updated my DiD Visualizer tool for TWFE/OLS. 1. I added a break the model button to correlate treatment effects with treatment timing, making negative weight more likely. 2 Made the heterogeneous treatment effects more responsive to make things wacky with uniform distribution ranges instead 1/2

📣 First European-level Conference in Development Economics of EDEG! 📅 June 11-12 2026 🌍 Kiel Institute for the World Economy Hosted by the Standing Field Committee for Development Economics of the German Economic Association Submit a paper: events.gwdg.de/event/1270/ Deadline: 15 Feb 2026

After becoming a congressional leader, a politician’s stock portfolio beats out those of peers by 47 (!!!) percentage points a year through trades timed around bills and firms that later get government contracts www.nber.org/papers/w34524 via @florianederer.bsky.social

Hello! I'm starting a new blog/newsletter thing. First post is about aid and growth, and what I think is missing from the renewed enthusiasm in DC to subsidize private investment in developing countries: i.e., export discipline. 1/

The American Economic Association's Committee on the Job Market surveyed Economics Departments in the U.S. regarding their plans to hire assistant professors this cycle (2025-26). 29.7% said that their department was under a hiring freeze. 1/3 #EconSky #EconJobMarket

New paper: Triply Robust Panel Estimators (TROP) by @susanathey.bsky.social @guidoimbens.bsky.social Zhaonan Qu @vivianodavide.bsky.social. arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536

Whats the german word for the feeling you have when you take the first sip of water and realized you poured Naturell and not bubbley?

👋 I'm Danielle, and I'm on the #econjobmarket this year! Let's start with a student describing her segregated school: "The school felt temporary. Built like a warehouse with aluminum siding . . . I had a slipshod education" The twist? The student is white, and her school is private. A JMP 🧵 -->

The elimination of USAID was an unforgivable moral atrocity that should haunt Trump, Elon Musk and Marco Rubio for the rest of their days and beyond

You mean "breadjudicial"?

The factional grifters will hate this, but the Mamdani-Spanberger-Sherrill axis actually suggests the outlines of a broad, emerging Dem coalition organized around both anti-Trump *and* affordability politics, not a party bitterly divided against itself.

@jamellebouie.net Why the Exorcist steps?

Right wing billionaires should clearly fund more sci-fi.

Thought about scientific consensus recently? We have a new DP @i4replication.bsky.social that probes into the famous replication debate between Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson (AJR) and Albouy - and how experts assess this debate. We find that they disagree. 1/8 www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...

Worth a friendly reminder that the next set of nation-wide No Kings protests are set for October 18th. There's probably one in your area. I am not generally a crowds or protests sort of person, but there's one in my town and I'll be at it on the 18th. www.nokings.org

All is not well at Elsevier richardtol.substack.com/p/fraud-and-...

One way to address the "its not always sunny or windy" oil and gas disinfo

This seems bad. People unironically calling this their Reichstag Fire moment. 🚩

Don't like stanning for google docs but this looks good.

Not to make light of the Authoritarian take over, but we need more #econtwitter posting too

Oh my milk is too milky, get an espresso.

This man can't even figure out which century he's supposed to buy his suit in. He is wearinf a Double Albert pocket watch chain on a double breasted vest with a (strangely) non-double breasted suit with double pockets! You can't tell me this man ain't gonna double count the jobs numbers!

Coincidence?

This man can't even figure out which century he's supposed to buy his suit in. He is wearinf a Double Albert pocket watch chain on a double breasted vest with a (strangely) non-double breasted suit with double pockets! You can't tell me this man ain't gonna double count the jobs numbers!

At The Unjournal, we compensate experts for evaluating and rating research with impact potential. We committed to pay $450 per evaluation on average - including base pay, incentives, and prizes.

“The well-being cost-effectiveness of StrongMinds and Friendship Bench: Combining a systematic review and meta-analysis with charity-related data” - 2 anonymous evaluators “Global potential for natural regeneration in deforested tropical regions” - @cannoncloud.bsky.social, anonymous evaluator

Argument mostly resolved by this super interesting and depressing figure: doi.org/10.31223/X57... Clearly we're in a new normal. Open question - do we know yet whether the new normal is more like 2020/21 or more like 2023? I suspect the latter, since Canada is so darn big & it keeps burning. /end

It’d be nice if night lights worked for accurately predicting GDP changes, but our best models (with many predictors) explain 60%. Given the LED mess and that lagged BLS data are top predictors, a biased BLS might still be better. Plus, you’re swapping dependency on the BLS for NASA.

It’d be nice if night lights worked for accurately predicting GDP changes, but our best models (with many predictors) explain 60%. Given the LED mess and that lagged BLS data are top predictors, a biased BLS might still be better. Plus, you’re swapping dependency on the BLS for NASA.

"Common ownership grew dramatically in the US economy from 1995 to 2021. It could raise producer profits at the expense of consumer surplus & lead to a substantial deadweight loss." Recently accepted paper by @florianederer.bsky.social & Pellegrino: www.restud.com/a-tale-of-tw... #econsky #REStud

Interesting study from Germany on e-bikes and the modes they replace: "43.1% of electric bicycle trips and 63.2% of electric bicycle mileage would have been undertaken using a car if no e-bike had been available, highlighting their substantial potential to reduce transport-related CO2 emissions"

No no no, you are ~neoclassical~ by tautology. You think humans are robots, and capital and labor are endlessly substitutable for natural resources. Keep your Dobb Couglas production functions away from innocent childens' eyes!