Botswana credit rating downgraded from BBB+ to BBB, still one notch above the lowest investment grade rating of BBB-. Botswana started with a A rating in 2001 from S&P, cut to A- after the global financial crisis and to BBB+ during COVID The external shock hitting Botswana now is very specific

Tourists sun by the pool overlooking the high court next door, where Tanzania’s opposition leader — previously shot 16 times — is being tried for treason. A metaphor perhaps for the international community’s response to Tanzania’s democratic backsliding.

“For all intents and purposes, Nkrumah paralleled Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King Jr. in his reach and influence. That little is known about him outside of Africa and African diasporic communities is a reflection of the continued marginalization of the continent in the Western imagination.”

Emergency 1:30 am blog post: Trump tried to fire a Federal Reserve governor. It’s really bad, not just for the United States, but for everyone else. To start Tuesday off on a positive, cheerful note! open.substack.com/pub/someunpl...

“I have no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet,” Cook said. www.bloomberg.com/news/article... Amen.

My experience is if you send Mauricio a half-baked idea, he might just code it up for you and send back a TeX file. Dunno if it’ll work with him as an editor, but worth trying at least…

School feeding program in Rwanda yields 11x return on investment academic.oup.com/jae/article-...

Lesotho was one of the biggest successes of AGOA -- which meant 'liberation day' hit particularly hard. Little early to see this in the trade data, but doesn't look great. NYT reporting factories shuttered. People going from $7/day factory jobs to $1/day hawking on the street.

@charlesjkenny.bsky.social & @justsand.bsky.social ‬focus on the impact that US foreign aid budget cuts & freezes will have on the field of public #health and find that approx 1/2 million lives will be lost each year mainly from a lack of HIV drugs & vaccinations. cepr.org/publications... #EconSky

Blog by @justsand.bsky.social and me: A Million Lives at Risk? White House proposing a two-thirds cut to global health and humanitarian funding. Using estimates of costs per life saved for US global health and humanitarian assistance suggests the cuts could lead to one million deaths.

They're terminating OPT. Today the nominee to head USCIS stated directly: he will end Optional Practical Training, the single largest channel for high-skill immigrants to work in the US. 6 weeks ago I warned about this & summarized the research on impacts of this drastic action—> @piie.com

Some personal/professional news... After 14 (!) years, this was my last week at @cgdev.org Posted a longer thread on the other site, and will share more later on what's next. For now, just want to say thank you.

The Trump admin’s FY2026 budget proposes deep cuts to US dev. & humanitarian aid, reflecting a shift in global engagement. @ecollinson.bsky.social & @justinrhurley.bsky.social highlight a key choice for Congress: endorse this retreat or pursue a more balanced approach ⬇️ bit.ly/3Z8LIRU

This is accurate. As @charlesjkenny.bsky.social of @cgdev.org has noted, the data we have support the conclusion that the reckless and illegal obliteration of USAID will cause deaths worldwide, particularly of children. —> www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0...

I think a hugely effective form of altruism at the moment is ensuring all potential legal challenges to aid cuts are fully funded and staffed with great lawyers. www.afge.org/local/l1444/...

a very interesting write-up of the world's largest poverty alleviation programme, implemented in China starting 2014. Blog version: www.voxchina.org/show-3-391.h... In contrast to other "multifaceted" anti-poverty interventions (i.e. voxdev.org/topic/social... ) it included industrial promotion

TIL Argentina gets **one-third** of all IMF loans

The illegal obliteration of USAID, an independent agency established and funded by Congress, will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths per year. That is a conservative reading of expert analysis by @charlesjkenny.bsky.social & @justsand.bsky.social of @cgdev.org —> www.cgdev.org/blog/how-man...

Was speaking with a USAID person yesterday explaining how at any other time countless phone lines wld be buzzing, working groups stood up, go-teams and aid being dispatched to after the Myanmar quake. Now ... nothing.

Make America Great Again by slashing basic health services in the Congo. Hopefully Congress doesn't take these numbers as given.

The Economist joins the call here to accelerate malaria vaccine rollout — citing our work on prioritizing R21 for both speed and cost. www.economist.com/middle-east-...

New estimates of the effects of the US Administration's obliteration of our Congressionally-mandated development assistance agency, from the brilliant @charlesjkenny.bsky.social and @justsand.bsky.social of @cgdev.org —>

New Estimates of the USAID Cuts with @justsand.bsky.social ~36% of contracts by value have been terminated, including potentially all awards in sectors including private sector competitiveness, higher education, and political competition & consensus building.

Don't give up on foreign aid just yet - despite huge cuts from many donors there's still a lot of money on the table and still broad public support. We just need to make a better case for aid effectiveness www.cgdev.org/blog/dont-gi...

Elon Musk says that no one has died because he slashed humanitarian aid. I went to South Sudan to check if that's true. It's not. Meet Peter, Achol and Evan, ages 10, 8 and 5. The reckless actions of the world's richest men are killing the world's poorest kids www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Each dot represents 10 people whose lives depend on US foreign aid, just for HIV prevention & treatment. Without it, 1.6m people could die *per year*.

This is a loudly blown whistle.

Centre for the Study of African Economies at University of Oxford will automatically consider all applicants from Africa for full funding for the MPhil in Economics - we have new scholarships for eligible students. How? Just apply asap: deadline 4th March (extended deadline): see below

Rubio terminated 5800 USAID contracts – more than 90% of its foreign aid programs – in defiance of the courts. Here’s a list of just some of the lifesaving awards that were terminated. Nearly all were Congressionally mandated. They’ve saved millions of lives. 🧵

Imagine knowing you are HIV+, treatment exists, but you have no hope of getting it. *In Malawi circa 2004, that knowledge alone killed 20 percent of HIV+ people within 2 years.* ARVs changed things. USAID cuts could take us back to that kind of despair. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Things Elon has ruined that used to be good: 🤣 emoji Space travel Venetian doge Actual doge The American administrative state R̶e̶p̶u̶t̶a̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ o̶f̶ w̶h̶i̶t̶e̶ S̶o̶u̶t̶h̶ A̶f̶r̶i̶c̶a̶n̶s̶

Thread.

Hold off on USAID obituaries and suggesting staff have gone. Most actions so far are under legal challenge, only Congress can get rid of USAID (and its funding), the staff are on administrative leave. What has happened is terrible, but it is time to push back, not give in.

Curious how many mothers and children worldwide will die from slashing USAID programs? We'll never know, because we're gonna stop counting.

A blog. Dear Secretary Rubio: You Are Right, Foreign Assistance Works. Please Resume It. www.cgdev.org/blog/dear-se...

Argentina to withdraw from the World Health Organization, citing “profound differences” & President Milei following US lead www.statnews.com/2025/02/05/a...

if USAID funding for malaria, TB and HIV treatment for millions of people is abruptly cut off, doesn't that greatly increase the chance that treatment-resistant strains of these diseases will develop? which will inevitably find their way back to "the rest of us" ?

Mind-boggling wreckage. Among the lifesaving programs now disrupted by Elon’s attack on @USAID: phase 1 trials for a possible HIV vaccine.

New, from me: So much is happening, so quickly. The purpose of shock and awe is to bewilder and overwhelm. It is important not to look away, or get discouraged. Try to discern the what is a big and real threat. Here is my best effort to do so. 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/meditation...

New op ed from Tom Wein, @garrisonlovely.bsky.social and I on PEPFAR and giving up the legacy of US power in Africa: foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/05/p...

Andrew Natsios, who ran USAID under President George W. Bush and is a lifelong conservative Republican, calls such moves “illegal” and “outrageous.” What Musk and Rubio are doing “is criminal. They can’t abolish the aid program without a vote of Congress.” www.politico.com/news/magazin...

USAID’s website has been deleted, all that is left is a note saying all personnel are now on administrative leave and personnel outside the US are to be brought home. Completely illegal, no act of congress or even executive order was signed to dismantle the agency

USAID.gov is back, with a single announcement: "On Friday, February 7, 2025, at 11:59 pm (EST) all USAID direct hire personnel will be placed on administrative leave globally"

I am credibly told that all the officials working on #HIV at #USAID has been put on administrative leave. Meanwhile the waivers Sec Rubio is claiming have not actually been communicated to implementers and they are withdrawing in-country staff, so nobody is actually available to stop the stop-work.

Come ON. You fight unconstitutional moves even if the target is unpopular because the next target will be for something even bigger and more important. And because many innocent people will die.

Congressional Research Service brief on status of USAID is here: crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...

Secretary Rubio: waivers are meaningless if there is no one to implement them. This will cost unnecessary deaths, more children born with HIV, more getting malaria. Please act.

Economists: man, these endless appendices of robustness checks are getting absurd. Epidemiologists: [post 30-page appendix explaining *authorship* of the paper]

*Extremely* timely EDCC article #econtwitter #econsky about effectiveness of foreign aid in building soft power. . .for China! Completion of Chinese foreign aid projects ⬆️ support for Chinese gov in recipient countries @elwellner @DreherAxel @fuchs_andreas @AustinMStrange