Human capital index shows why Kenya will be next to industrialise in SSA after Mauritius The chart strongly correlated with The Time Travelling Economist PS I do wish the World Bank would write names instead of country codes. It would “democratise” information rather than be just for elites like u

Sharing from Linkdin- I hope she does not mind - Joyce Chang's IMF meeting investors conference consensus. Often been as reliable as the Davos consensus but always interesting ... Memories from Washington 2008 end of the world IMF times.. Nervous laughter...

Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist. Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s. In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”. Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea

Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist. Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s. In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”. Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea

Good read Love the quote about a “potential” bubble in gold 😀😀

Go Congo ! .. another African currency rallies sharply, after Ghana and Zambia earlier this year .. what makes this fun, is that the parallel rate is way way stronger than the official rate. Even now www.radiookapi.net/2025/10/13/a...

I do explain why this is the case, in The Time Travelling Economist (high fertility = low savings = high interest rates = overly expensive electricity) Cheap solar panels and cheap batteries do help

China must be wishing that its exports to Africa were more meaningful in terms of size But at least there's Asia, whose demand for Chinese goods (helping de-industrialise others on the continent) and Europe, to offset the drop in exports to the US

Price matters .. battery prices and additions of GW of electricity battery capacity A key issue to help Africa experience the greenest industrial revolution ever

Nigeria’s central bank governor speaking to a packed event organised by the Wheeler Institute, part of London Business School. Impressive

Enjoyed this essay by economic historian Scott Bessent www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Bes... He highlights how the Fed kept over-estimating the growth benefits of QE Also hints here about how the Fed may have contributed to the dissatisfaction which led to Trump’s victory in 2024

Not often there's a media report on Burundi .. so appreciate this by the FT and Andres Schipani

This is great piece, very clear and well structured When the AI stock bubble crashes, it won’t necessitate QE type policies from the Fed as the bubble is built on equity on debt

Pakistan is not ready to industrialise, due to low female literacy. P&G decision to stop manufacturing razors and other goods, is evidence of this. See “The Time Travelling Economist” Unfortunate for this government which has done an excellent job in bringing macro stability to Pakistan

AGOA expired last night, but most assume it will be renewed, and attached to some other legislation Congress passes Doubt it'll show up in trade data if we get renewal in the next few weeks Ex-AGOA, Kenya's total tariff increase half of China or India, but above Vietnam unctad.org/news/tariffs...

US government looming shutdown All important upcoming Argentina elections Zimbabwe introduces a new currency to control inflation Any other headlines you've read more times than you can count over your career?

Some basically good inflation data out of Uganda, rising from 3.8% to 4.0% driven by tomatoes and pineapples from what I can see. Good news for bullish Uganda bond investors .. and there's a lot of you about www.ubos.org/wp-content/u...

Good news on AGOA, especially for SA, Kenya, Madagascar and DR Congo among the non-oil beneficiaries Uncertain which piece of legislation it can be attached to .. or whether we face a temporary interruption until the US government shutdown is over (a month with Trump last time) t.co/XrO0ljvBN0

A little economic history on how the US dollar rose, and then fell, before becoming the world’s dominant currency, by Barry Eichengreen Today China remains far from from rivalling the US based on these factors www.wsj.com/finance/curr...

Morocco gets back the investment grade it lost in 2021. The other two agencies are still 1 notch lower, with stable outlooks on their Ba1 and BB+ sub-investment grade ratings S&P thinks budget deficit will be 3% of GDP in 2026 and the C/A deficit will remain small www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...

It’s a shame to see the FT ignore the first half of its name. First 9 pages of UK edition has no reference to an exchange rate or interest rate, or an equity or bond price. The Argentine peso gets a mention on page 10. Silver lining, FT only needs skim reading WSJ now becoming required reading

Good timing

The Trump administration doesn’t want Russian crude exports disrupted because he wants lower pump prices. But apparently the US does not mind this pressure on Russia. Testing NATO in Poland and Estonia may be Russia’s response

"Jean-Philippe Bouchaud is both baffled and frustrated by how economics has fallen in thrall to theorists — mathematical, social or political — and become bereft of the rigour of proper sciences, where real-world experiments and experiences actually matter." Aren't we all? www.ft.com/content/6f54...

The judiciary is looking politicised in the US, with the appeals court backing Fed’s Cook vs Trump, but in a 2-1 decision The 2 appointed by Biden backed Cook. Trump’s appointee backed the White House It’s not the institutions, it’s the people www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

Botswana credit rating downgraded from BBB+ to BBB, still one notch above the lowest investment grade rating of BBB-. Botswana started with a A rating in 2001 from S&P, cut to A- after the global financial crisis and to BBB+ during COVID The external shock hitting Botswana now is very specific

Very interesting history here ..about the connection between supply and demand of money for mortgages. The building society model kept the pace the of house prices connected to household earnings (John Plender, FT big read)

Botswana. A bit like Chile and Peru losing guano exports after German industrialists developed industrial fertilisers .. or Norway losing ice exports after the invention of the fridge www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Syria exported 600,000 barrels of heavy crude in its first oil shipment in years, as the lifting of western sanctions brings relief to its war-ravaged economy

Good read on the solar panel growth story in Africa .. echoing what we’ve seen in Pakistan. In Pakistan the issue is so important it’s threatening the finances of the big electricity companies

This is a curious story .. would be good to see some more media digging on this The investment pledges are enormous The lack of transparency about Gulf sovereign wealth funds is a contributory factor Now the pledge to Botswana is being cited in a FT story to do with diamonds

A solar panel boom in Africa Will check some per capita figures one day .. original data source seems to be here ember-energy.org/data/china-s...

I’d always found emerging markets more interesting than developed markets (DM) partly because of guys like Erdogan Trump is doing a very good job at making the US interesting for those DM economists who’ve missed out on seeing institutions attacked/undermined by political leaders

The Lisa Cook “firing” by Trump …can he / can’t he ..may end up with the Supreme Court and more clarity on its May 2025 statement suggesting he can’t Politically, this is smart of Trump to test this over allegations of mortgage fraud. It can align him with “the people” vs Fed

Indonesia industrialised in line with the education, fertility and electricity thesis of @TTTEconomist but has now seen manufacturing shrink from 32% to 19% of GDP The article suggests too much focus on Indonesia’s plentiful natural resources + these reasons www.ft.com/content/0eb1...

Chinese growth AND value equities have both returned more than 40% in past 12m. Astonishing But almost entirely valuation driven. 12-month fwd earnings for value stocks are lower today than a year ago "Quality" companies, where the earnings outlook has picked up nicely, have underperformed by 10%

As my publisher says it would take 1-2 years to do an audio version of The Time Travelling Economist, this may be a good option for those who've not read it. It's like a second edition of the book, with 2024 UN demographic forecasts + focus on services and women podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/c...

USD lower & US Treasury bonds lower in price. The US is an EM but you all aren't EM investors... yet. You'll learn the hard way... we all did.

US and EU close in on deal to massively raise taxes on Americans, in total violation of both US domestic law & WTO treaty obligations

The author shows "Education can account for about 45% of global economic growth and 60% of pretax income growth among the world’s poorest 20% from 1980 to 2019".

Delighted to announce that Benin, Côte d’Ivoire & Nigeria have become our recipient countries as of today. We'll bring our distinct private-sector focused, locally based business model to unlock access to finance, promote local businesses, foster sustainable and long-term growth

This such bad news for Botswana which has been one of Africa’s luckiest countries in recent decades, due to huge natural resource wealth and a tiny population Now the diamond price shock is akin to the commodity price shock that hit Nigeria and others in the 1980s and 2015-16

Meeting with Tanzania central bank governor Tutuba yesterday and we didn’t talk about Trump at all. It was great

S&P cuts Senegal to B- with a negative outlook (was cut to B from B+ in March) za.investing.com/news/world-n...

Good morning *TRUMP SAYS US WILL IMPOSE 30% TARIFFS ON EU, MEXICO FROM AUG. 1

I guess Americans can just sell their shares to pay for their higher import bill

No TACO necessary when markets hit a record high

After 3 months of negotiations and great trade deals, the average tariff to be imposed on 1 August, is down just 1 percentage point from those imposed in early April Trump wants this consumption tax on Americans to cut the budget deficit by $300bn or 1% of GDP

Good to see some African equity markets powering ahead this year: Egypt +16% in US dollars Nigeria +22% in US dollars Kenya +39% and Morocco up 45% (I didn't expect that) Africa, like much of EM, does well when the $ is weak .. and when Trump isn't paying them much attention

Me, sipping tea in a Starbucks: "Wow, Americans really know how to hold a grudge"