SocGen recommending Kenya infrastructure bonds, due to decreasing CBK rate hike risk, and yields are up vs pre-Hormuz closure. Makes sense for this year

Tanzania rate hike to 6.25pc was flagged by the central bank last month .. inflation still around target and GDP growth is goof www.bot.go.tz/Adverts/Pres...

The energy market has transitioned from vicious cycle dynamics to virtuous ones: The fall in insurance premiums (FT reporting below) comes on top of normalizing production/shipment levels and high OPEC+ ceilings,exerting downward pressure on energy costs, with Brent oil now trading below $70 #energy

📰 #Finance "Critics dub Aliko Dangote a crony capitalist. He says he is pioneering Asian-style economic development"

Pretty amazing to see YoY Murban oil price rises of nearly 120% two months ago, and 49% YoY two weeks ago, become just +18% this morning .. and 12% for Brent.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on what he calls the biggest energy security crisis the world has ever seen: “For me, to be silent is an admission, a humble admission of the fact that I don’t know what will happen. 1/2

The Malawi fuel price here is what happens when a country runs out of strategic fuel reserves, and is already on the brink of default so can’t afford to subsidise

My new surprise looking at Africa's GDP figures: the biggest 10 countries account for 2/3 of GDP while the bottom half account for just 10% (the smallest 15 countries only 1.8%) Romania is bigger than any economy in Africa The continent as a whole is a little smaller than France (which is 7th)

This appears to be such a misleading piece on the impact of Ebola. They cite an economic impact of $50bn when the three countries affected in 2014-15 had a combined GDP of $17bn. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38299454/

I do meet a lot of Nigerians in London, but did not realise the UK is responsible for 2/3 of global "inward personal transfers" to Nigeria, at $12bn of $19bn in total in 2023

As the US sits relatively insulated from the Hormuz closure, Pakistan surprises markets with a 100bp rate hike to 11.5%. Probably the right move, but unhelpful for a government that was getting the macro right since 2023 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Agreed. There is a contradiction between bigger EU cohesion funding, which requires co-financing from national government, and the requirement for austerity to achieve euro adoption Also austerity probably doesn’t help re-election chances in 2030 So more likely Hungary gets Euro by 2033 or 2034

Foreigners in Japan On the right, the typical controls for a Japanese toilet On the left, a translation polystyrene sticker helpfully provided by the Airbnb host Also on the left, the deep imprints of desperate, frantic foreigners pressing Flush into the translation

I'm less worried about oil going to $100-150/bbl than I am about fuel shortages Countries whose "strategic reserves" barely exist, at 2-4 weeks or less, are usually low income and vulnerable A big SPR release by OECD countries won't easily resolve this (wrong place/wrong type of oil)

I'm less worried about oil going to $100-150/bbl than I am about fuel shortages Countries whose "strategic reserves" barely exist, at 3-4 weeks or less, are usually low income and vulnerable A big SPR release by OECD countries won't easily resolve this (wrong place/type)

Even in Bahrain - seemingly everyone in EM is sure it should trade wider as the weakest Gulf credit with lots of long-term issues, very high debt to GDP, etc. Yet its long-term debt is back under a spread of 300bps today.

One of the biggest issues from this Iran attack comes from the decision to decapitate the leadership of a country. The tacit understanding not to target leaders means the world has largely avoided tit-for-tat state sponsored assassinations of our leaders. Now, running for office carries higher risk

Disagree with this. Kenya and other (especially textile) African exporters to the US had won a big relative advantage as Trump imposed much higher tariffs on Asia. Factories were wanting to locate to AGOA countries with better access to the US That advantage has now been lost

Useful piece on what comes next after the Supreme Court struck down many of Trump's tariffs blog.freshfields.us/post/102mig3...

Africa's trade take off will come with industrialisation, as happened in Asia. In 1950, China and Korea exported $13 and $15 per person, per year. In 2024, $2,510 and $13,212 Even with the EAC, 2024 east Africa is sub-$300 (next post) (Claude in Excel will be blamed for errors :-))

DR Congo is planning to issue a $750m Eurobond in April, a debut for the country. High copper prices and adherence to IMF programme are helpful. I’ve been in debate for some months about where this Eurobond will come, in terms of yield. #DRC #eurobond #frontiermarkets

Nedbank has put in an offer to one of Kenya's bigger banks NCBA, which Standard Bank was expected to buy. FDI of 0.6% of GDP. South Africans appear to recognise the conclusions of the Time Travelling Economist, that Kenya will be the next country to industrialise in SSA (the first since Mauritius)

There are no bears left on gold forecasts. They've all given up. The median forecast for Dec-2026 is now 30% above the extreme record gold price in 2025, which is the highest we've ever seen This despite world peace for 39 of the top 40 economies and globally low inflation Odd

South Africa is getting its mojo back Total vehicle sales the highest since the boom year of 2007 (SA had 49m population then vs 64m now). This is good news even though SA is no longer Africa's biggest producer Morocco (see The Time Travelling Economist for why) has taken first place

Mozambique's opposition leader VM7 makes a good point. The dominant political parties (the old liberation movements) are facing severe challenges across southern Africa This hints at why he backed down in 2024/25. He's playing the long game, earning trust of incumbents www.ft.com/content/b13a...

This is excess labour (“disposables” says the Russian), probably from Uganda, finding jobs via emigration The Time Travelling Economist thesis shows up even in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine

This can only feed the gold narrative (even if the gold price is more about central bank buying and speculation) Trump must be angry that the Fed won’t cut rates in January and help him (try and) win the mid-terms

What a great year for Frontier markets and Africa in particular Nigeria stock market up 67% in $ Egypt 55% Kenya 51% Morocco 45% And all of them except Morocco are still cheap in p/e terms. US under Trump left far behind, up just 18%. (Latam numbers might change in next few hours)

The freeing up of currencies in Egypt, Nigeria and Ethiopia have made them plausible FDI targets again. Portfolio investors have already profited from the better backdrop and are the pathfinders for FDI. Meanwhile, Gulf interest is booming in Africa, from mining to logistics to energy

It is just incredible that the people who always go on about immigration and muslims and sharia law in Britain are the first to promote British immigration into a muslim country with sharia law.

I might finally understand all the media attention on the UK budget in recent months UK political class terrified of another Truss event, so they leak every possible tax rise and change not recognizing how damaging to sentiment this is The leakers will think they won because mkt didn't melt down

Another coup, for the reasons explained in The Time Travelling Economist Poor education and high fertility means low per capita GDP growth so no reason to back the status quo

A simple message from a newly released book You usually lose money owning Nigerian domestic bonds You usually make money owning Tanzanian domestic bonds It's a coin-toss (50/50) if you buy Egyptian domestic bonds Regularly negative real rates is how Egypt and Nigeria have avoided default

Which is why I assume Europe won't sanction China if it invades ("re-incorporates" depending on your perspective) Taiwan .. or least won't impose any meaningful sanctions

Again, people trying to explain a symptom (Africa's low credit ratings) and often missing the structural cause. Young people/countries are on average a higher credit risk than people/countries in their 20s, 30s or 40s. See The Time Travelling Economist www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I don't get all the fuss about UK growth or the budget. Numbers look comparable to Europe and Japan, a bit worse than US on growth, but much better on the budget. UK media narrative portrays a very different picture from Bloomberg consensus macro forecasts

Best explanation for the weak Germany IFO current conditions numbers we're seeing German manufacturing struggling to compete with China Jobs being lost, tax take to city councils dropping, and Chinese firms undercutting European prices (Swiss firm here) by 78.5% www.ft.com/content/239e...

Looks like China may have learnt a valuable lesson in its foreign lending practices. There's not much point building expensive infrastructure if there's not enough human capital to exploit it. Now their lending is increasing the focus on human capital (great news for the 2040s)

Human capital index shows why Kenya will be next to industrialise in SSA after Mauritius The chart strongly correlated with The Time Travelling Economist PS I do wish the World Bank would write names instead of country codes. It would “democratise” information rather than be just for elites like u

Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist. Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s. In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”. Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea

Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist. Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s. In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”. Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea

Good read Love the quote about a “potential” bubble in gold 😀😀

Go Congo ! .. another African currency rallies sharply, after Ghana and Zambia earlier this year .. what makes this fun, is that the parallel rate is way way stronger than the official rate. Even now www.radiookapi.net/2025/10/13/a...

I do explain why this is the case, in The Time Travelling Economist (high fertility = low savings = high interest rates = overly expensive electricity) Cheap solar panels and cheap batteries do help

China must be wishing that its exports to Africa were more meaningful in terms of size But at least there's Asia, whose demand for Chinese goods (helping de-industrialise others on the continent) and Europe, to offset the drop in exports to the US

Price matters .. battery prices and additions of GW of electricity battery capacity A key issue to help Africa experience the greenest industrial revolution ever

Nigeria’s central bank governor speaking to a packed event organised by the Wheeler Institute, part of London Business School. Impressive

Enjoyed this essay by economic historian Scott Bessent www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Bes... He highlights how the Fed kept over-estimating the growth benefits of QE Also hints here about how the Fed may have contributed to the dissatisfaction which led to Trump’s victory in 2024

Not often there's a media report on Burundi .. so appreciate this by the FT and Andres Schipani