Useful piece on what comes next after the Supreme Court struck down many of Trump's tariffs blog.freshfields.us/post/102mig3...

Africa's trade take off will come with industrialisation, as happened in Asia. In 1950, China and Korea exported $13 and $15 per person, per year. In 2024, $2,510 and $13,212 Even with the EAC, 2024 east Africa is sub-$300 (next post) (Claude in Excel will be blamed for errors :-))

DR Congo is planning to issue a $750m Eurobond in April, a debut for the country. High copper prices and adherence to IMF programme are helpful. I’ve been in debate for some months about where this Eurobond will come, in terms of yield. #DRC #eurobond #frontiermarkets

Nedbank has put in an offer to one of Kenya's bigger banks NCBA, which Standard Bank was expected to buy. FDI of 0.6% of GDP. South Africans appear to recognise the conclusions of the Time Travelling Economist, that Kenya will be the next country to industrialise in SSA (the first since Mauritius)

There are no bears left on gold forecasts. They've all given up. The median forecast for Dec-2026 is now 30% above the extreme record gold price in 2025, which is the highest we've ever seen This despite world peace for 39 of the top 40 economies and globally low inflation Odd

South Africa is getting its mojo back Total vehicle sales the highest since the boom year of 2007 (SA had 49m population then vs 64m now). This is good news even though SA is no longer Africa's biggest producer Morocco (see The Time Travelling Economist for why) has taken first place

Mozambique's opposition leader VM7 makes a good point. The dominant political parties (the old liberation movements) are facing severe challenges across southern Africa This hints at why he backed down in 2024/25. He's playing the long game, earning trust of incumbents www.ft.com/content/b13a...

This is excess labour (“disposables” says the Russian), probably from Uganda, finding jobs via emigration The Time Travelling Economist thesis shows up even in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine

This can only feed the gold narrative (even if the gold price is more about central bank buying and speculation) Trump must be angry that the Fed won’t cut rates in January and help him (try and) win the mid-terms

What a great year for Frontier markets and Africa in particular Nigeria stock market up 67% in $ Egypt 55% Kenya 51% Morocco 45% And all of them except Morocco are still cheap in p/e terms. US under Trump left far behind, up just 18%. (Latam numbers might change in next few hours)

The freeing up of currencies in Egypt, Nigeria and Ethiopia have made them plausible FDI targets again. Portfolio investors have already profited from the better backdrop and are the pathfinders for FDI. Meanwhile, Gulf interest is booming in Africa, from mining to logistics to energy

It is just incredible that the people who always go on about immigration and muslims and sharia law in Britain are the first to promote British immigration into a muslim country with sharia law.

I might finally understand all the media attention on the UK budget in recent months UK political class terrified of another Truss event, so they leak every possible tax rise and change not recognizing how damaging to sentiment this is The leakers will think they won because mkt didn't melt down

Another coup, for the reasons explained in The Time Travelling Economist Poor education and high fertility means low per capita GDP growth so no reason to back the status quo

A simple message from a newly released book You usually lose money owning Nigerian domestic bonds You usually make money owning Tanzanian domestic bonds It's a coin-toss (50/50) if you buy Egyptian domestic bonds Regularly negative real rates is how Egypt and Nigeria have avoided default

Which is why I assume Europe won't sanction China if it invades ("re-incorporates" depending on your perspective) Taiwan .. or least won't impose any meaningful sanctions

Again, people trying to explain a symptom (Africa's low credit ratings) and often missing the structural cause. Young people/countries are on average a higher credit risk than people/countries in their 20s, 30s or 40s. See The Time Travelling Economist www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I don't get all the fuss about UK growth or the budget. Numbers look comparable to Europe and Japan, a bit worse than US on growth, but much better on the budget. UK media narrative portrays a very different picture from Bloomberg consensus macro forecasts

Best explanation for the weak Germany IFO current conditions numbers we're seeing German manufacturing struggling to compete with China Jobs being lost, tax take to city councils dropping, and Chinese firms undercutting European prices (Swiss firm here) by 78.5% www.ft.com/content/239e...

Looks like China may have learnt a valuable lesson in its foreign lending practices. There's not much point building expensive infrastructure if there's not enough human capital to exploit it. Now their lending is increasing the focus on human capital (great news for the 2040s)

Human capital index shows why Kenya will be next to industrialise in SSA after Mauritius The chart strongly correlated with The Time Travelling Economist PS I do wish the World Bank would write names instead of country codes. It would “democratise” information rather than be just for elites like u

Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist. Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s. In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”. Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea

Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist. Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s. In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”. Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea

Good read Love the quote about a “potential” bubble in gold 😀😀

Go Congo ! .. another African currency rallies sharply, after Ghana and Zambia earlier this year .. what makes this fun, is that the parallel rate is way way stronger than the official rate. Even now www.radiookapi.net/2025/10/13/a...

I do explain why this is the case, in The Time Travelling Economist (high fertility = low savings = high interest rates = overly expensive electricity) Cheap solar panels and cheap batteries do help

China must be wishing that its exports to Africa were more meaningful in terms of size But at least there's Asia, whose demand for Chinese goods (helping de-industrialise others on the continent) and Europe, to offset the drop in exports to the US

Price matters .. battery prices and additions of GW of electricity battery capacity A key issue to help Africa experience the greenest industrial revolution ever

Nigeria’s central bank governor speaking to a packed event organised by the Wheeler Institute, part of London Business School. Impressive

Enjoyed this essay by economic historian Scott Bessent www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Bes... He highlights how the Fed kept over-estimating the growth benefits of QE Also hints here about how the Fed may have contributed to the dissatisfaction which led to Trump’s victory in 2024

Not often there's a media report on Burundi .. so appreciate this by the FT and Andres Schipani

This is great piece, very clear and well structured When the AI stock bubble crashes, it won’t necessitate QE type policies from the Fed as the bubble is built on equity on debt

Pakistan is not ready to industrialise, due to low female literacy. P&G decision to stop manufacturing razors and other goods, is evidence of this. See “The Time Travelling Economist” Unfortunate for this government which has done an excellent job in bringing macro stability to Pakistan

AGOA expired last night, but most assume it will be renewed, and attached to some other legislation Congress passes Doubt it'll show up in trade data if we get renewal in the next few weeks Ex-AGOA, Kenya's total tariff increase half of China or India, but above Vietnam unctad.org/news/tariffs...

US government looming shutdown All important upcoming Argentina elections Zimbabwe introduces a new currency to control inflation Any other headlines you've read more times than you can count over your career?

Some basically good inflation data out of Uganda, rising from 3.8% to 4.0% driven by tomatoes and pineapples from what I can see. Good news for bullish Uganda bond investors .. and there's a lot of you about www.ubos.org/wp-content/u...

Good news on AGOA, especially for SA, Kenya, Madagascar and DR Congo among the non-oil beneficiaries Uncertain which piece of legislation it can be attached to .. or whether we face a temporary interruption until the US government shutdown is over (a month with Trump last time) t.co/XrO0ljvBN0

A little economic history on how the US dollar rose, and then fell, before becoming the world’s dominant currency, by Barry Eichengreen Today China remains far from from rivalling the US based on these factors www.wsj.com/finance/curr...

Morocco gets back the investment grade it lost in 2021. The other two agencies are still 1 notch lower, with stable outlooks on their Ba1 and BB+ sub-investment grade ratings S&P thinks budget deficit will be 3% of GDP in 2026 and the C/A deficit will remain small www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...

It’s a shame to see the FT ignore the first half of its name. First 9 pages of UK edition has no reference to an exchange rate or interest rate, or an equity or bond price. The Argentine peso gets a mention on page 10. Silver lining, FT only needs skim reading WSJ now becoming required reading

Good timing

The Trump administration doesn’t want Russian crude exports disrupted because he wants lower pump prices. But apparently the US does not mind this pressure on Russia. Testing NATO in Poland and Estonia may be Russia’s response

"Jean-Philippe Bouchaud is both baffled and frustrated by how economics has fallen in thrall to theorists — mathematical, social or political — and become bereft of the rigour of proper sciences, where real-world experiments and experiences actually matter." Aren't we all? www.ft.com/content/6f54...

The judiciary is looking politicised in the US, with the appeals court backing Fed’s Cook vs Trump, but in a 2-1 decision The 2 appointed by Biden backed Cook. Trump’s appointee backed the White House It’s not the institutions, it’s the people www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

Botswana credit rating downgraded from BBB+ to BBB, still one notch above the lowest investment grade rating of BBB-. Botswana started with a A rating in 2001 from S&P, cut to A- after the global financial crisis and to BBB+ during COVID The external shock hitting Botswana now is very specific

Very interesting history here ..about the connection between supply and demand of money for mortgages. The building society model kept the pace the of house prices connected to household earnings (John Plender, FT big read)

Botswana. A bit like Chile and Peru losing guano exports after German industrialists developed industrial fertilisers .. or Norway losing ice exports after the invention of the fridge www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Syria exported 600,000 barrels of heavy crude in its first oil shipment in years, as the lifting of western sanctions brings relief to its war-ravaged economy

Good read on the solar panel growth story in Africa .. echoing what we’ve seen in Pakistan. In Pakistan the issue is so important it’s threatening the finances of the big electricity companies