Two new CGD papers on World Bank climate finance, by @euanaritchie.bsky.social and me. We agree ‘mitigation’ projects overwhelmingly look designed to be ‘development first, mitigation... second?’ Thread including bonus paper by @jonathanbeynon.bsky.social …

Two new CGD papers on World Bank climate finance, by @euanaritchie.bsky.social and me. We agree ‘mitigation’ projects overwhelmingly look designed to be ‘development first, mitigation... second?’ Thread including bonus paper by @jonathanbeynon.bsky.social …

Important update from @ecollinson.bsky.social & Jocilyn Estes on US foreign assistance spending. Lots of reasons to caveat, & it is a *bad* picture for ongoing disaster assistance & development assistance, but global health picture better than previously forecast. www.cgdev.org/blog/reports...

Blog related to earlier note: If You Want China to Win Fewer Development Bank Financed Contracts, Increase Policy Lending. 1. This is all pretty silly. Evidence is Chinese contractors deliver quality at low price (in part b/c China subsidizing —good for MDB clients!)...

Yay trick or treat for UNICEF. www.npr.org/sections/goa...

"Louisiana sugarcane farmers say they depend heavily on migrant workers from Mexico" lailluminator.com/2025/10/28/l... Sugarcane, eh? 🤔

New note: A number of multilateral development banks have implemented or are considering mandated local content or labor requirements in their procurement rules. This is a *very bad idea.* (thread)

More immigrants = lower crime rates. Again. www.cgdev.org/publication/... (This time Venezuela and Ecuador)

The World Bank Group is planning to reorganize its research functions. The results could be even uglier than the powerpoint: an end to independent research at the institution and conflicts of interest all over... New blog with @eeshani.bsky.social, link in reply.

The number of low-income countries fell from 63 in 2000 to 26 today—but progress has stalled. @charlesjkenny.bsky.social urges the #G20 to take action on aid, investment, and migration to reignite growth: https://bit.ly/47nMG07

potentially good news on AGOA --US trade preferences for Africa. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Billions to Trillions, which was dead... www.cgdev.org/blog/did-par... ...But then came staggering back to life like a zombie demonic pony ... www.worldbank.org/en/news/spee... ...Is now dead again? www.globalcapital.com/globalmarket...

Telecoms pricing remains weird.

Update regarding the status of international organizations I talked about in the blog linked in thread: Universal Postal Union, NATO, WTO, ITU, CCC, WIPO (and more) now added to UN, IAEA, PAHO, OAS as organizations that got assessed contributions obligations in FY25. Yay...

Great news on @malengo.org: With a new large investment from The Shapiro Foundation (theshapirofoundation.org), we'll be able to bring several hundred vocational training and university students from Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda to Europe over the coming years! More here: malengo.org/malengo-secu...

"Between 2000 and 2023, the number of low-income countries worldwide ... declined from 63 to 26." But current growth rates suggest "as few as three additional graduations by 2035 & three more in the 15 years 2035 to 2050." www.cgdev.org/publication/... @charlesjkenny.bsky.social's call to action!

A call for G20 action: Zero Low Income Countries by 2040. LICs not only home to the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people, also fragile states at high risk of conflict, with limited capacity to provide global public goods from security to biodiversity and pandemic control.

This is great. S&P says that MDBs/DFIs releasing data on risk of their investments means they need to hold less capital to cover their liabilities --so can lend more. Onwards to greater transparency in contracting! www.publishwhatyoufund.org/2025/10/cred...

New CGD note by Ramona Godbole on the status of PEPFAR delivery. Picture: in Uganda, whether or not there have (likely) been big disruptions to PEPFAR provision of support/HIV meds depends if you happen to live in a district where USAID managed delivery awards rather than CDC.

I have been slow on this, but a dangerous idea --World Bank Group is moving to a single country manager for both private (IFC, MIGA) & public (IBRD, IDA) arms. For eg: IFC sponsoring a noncompetitive energy project with lock in take or pay agreements (they do that)...

oof. Short thread on new blog + paper by @euanritchie on ODA data. Below: Because EU's own borrowing costs fell in 2022, loans to developing countries with *exactly the same terms* stopped being counted as other official flows, ecame ODA --no more money, lots more reported aid.

With respect, and definitely agreeing we need to reform how aid works: It isn't right that "Foreign Aid Is Mostly Gone" (this added by an editor?). And, thankfully, it is unlikely that 14m people will die because of US assistance cuts. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/13/o...

Blog with CGD colleagues: Cholera in Africa: Rising Deaths, Shrinking US Aid. Africa seeing rising cholera deaths, but US foreign assistance not responding...

Blog with CGD colleagues: Cholera in Africa: Rising Deaths, Shrinking US Aid. Africa seeing rising cholera deaths, but US foreign assistance not responding...

Did you like Randall Munroe's Thing Explainer? Person Do Thing is a bit like the game of the book. You have to use the same twenty words to get across "complain" "rocket" and "fantasy" (as it might be). Funny, short, and portable. www.amazon.com/dp/B0FST4LFNH

From new ODI multilateral bank client survey. IADB Research Department: take a bow. media.odi.org/documents/Ar...

At its peak, about 1 in 7 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa caused by HIV/AIDS. It is now one in 20. PEPFAR takes a lot of credit. Since the launch of PMI in 2005, death rates from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa are down by a third. This is the time to double down, not walk away.

Blog with Ramona Godbole: Unpacking the US’s New Global Health Strategy: Retreating When We Could Be Winning. There's stuff to like in the US global health strategy, but its built around rapidly sunsetting finance rather than rapidly sunsetting HIV & malaria deaths. Not Great...

Widespread disruptions to the delivery of lifesaving US foreign assistance including antiretrovirals and malaria medicines laid out in this: www.washingtonpost.com/investigatio...

Rich oil and gas exporters relatively unscathed by recent US foreign economic policy. US allies, not so much. [darker green, bigger impact]. www.cgdev.org/blog/who-bea...

Another call for better aid reporting. Axel Dreher says we should distinguish & report separately on: 1. Humanitarian aid 2. Global public goods 3. Development aid www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

This is true, & backed by the best peer-reviewed research. @kevinshih.bsky.social of @ucrchass.bsky.social uses large shocks to international student supply in the past to test the hypothesis that they crowd out natives. They crowd *in* natives, via tuition revenue—> doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...

Foreign aid from the United States saved millions of lives each year by @hannahritchie.bsky.social and @simonvanteutem.bsky.social ourworldindata.org/us-foreign-a...

When trade deals expire: What’s at stake for Africa and the US? Market access to the United States could further deteriorate for many African countries if the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is not renewed before its expiration on 30 September 2025. Full data story: ▶️ ow.ly/Hq0w50X3E9a

This, from a survey paid for by Rockefeller Foundation, interesting on who trusts which international organizations worldwide....

Update: USASpending still reporting non-zero obligations to only 11 international orgs this fiscal year (which ends tomorrow). This excludes (ia) World Trade Organization, NATO, WHO, FAO, UPU, ITU IMO, WMO, WIPO... www.usaspending.gov/federal_acco...

The Economic Support Fund has been used recently to finance (ia): the budget of the government of Ukraine; private sector development, governance, fighting disease... now the Administration wants to use $1.4 billion from it for (short thread)... www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Please Pope Leo: speak to this foolish meanness. Sometimes it's embarrassing (and maddening) to be even a "fallen-away" Catholic: www.cgdev.org/blog/catholi...

Favorite World Bank graph of all time. Now I know your fancy econometricians with their highfalutin' views on causality and its demonstration might want to argue, but sometimes evidence speaks for itself. Almost Perfectly matches a graph of global GNI over time and the conclusion is obvious.

"This new tax on highly educated workers [the H1-B $100k fee]—127 times higher than the US visa fees for workers without a high school degree—is effectively a skill penalty." www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Global Aid Freeze tracker surveying US foreign assistance implementing partners on impacts of aid cuts. Lots of info here and if you are an implementing partner please fill out their survey. www.globalaidfreeze.com

Some not-totally-disinterested and probably not-original thoughts on what foundations should be doing at a time like this. www.cgdev.org/blog/foundat...

Some not-totally-disinterested and probably not-original thoughts on what foundations should be doing at a time like this. www.cgdev.org/blog/foundat...

Awesome

Please do not forget to panic about this: www.cgdev.org/blog/us-fund...

Blog: The World Bank and Climate Projects- A Matter of Definition. For climate finance at the Bank, almost everything counts in small amounts. In some ways that's fair, but it does make it hard to tell if things are additional, useful or well targeted. www.cgdev.org/blog/world-b...

New note on the status of PEPFAR from Ramona Godbole, formerly of USAID, for @CGDev. 24% by value of USAID’s PEPFAR awards have been reported terminated, including 16% lifesaving HIV programming. Thread and link below.

this awesome

"Long-wrought WTO agreement aimed at reducing overfishing takes effect" apnews.com/article/wto-...

15 days to the end of the fiscal year. Administration meant to give 15 days notification to Congress of new obligations. So today is last day to obligate any expiring funds. Better hope pocket rescission deemed constitutional? www.cgdev.org/blog/theres-... www.cgdev.org/blog/pocket-...