Of the 5.3 million new contracts the Trump Administration has agreed since the inauguration, 3 of the 5 largest were issued to Fisher Sand and Gravel to build a border wall, $5bn in total. Not bad considering entire value of federal contracts issued to the company before FY25 was $380m.

Many countries of origin have shifted from concerns about "brain drain" to actively promoting emigration. New @cgdev.org paper by @charlesjkenny.bsky.social outlines how emigration *can* contribute to growth, but only if the right policies are in place. www.cgdev.org/publication/...

New paper and blog: emigration as a growth strategy. Even as the strategy of using manufactured exports to kickstart rapid growth is showing its age, a strategy focused on the movement of people rather than goods is coming into its own...

New note: G20 Policies to Improve Development Prospects in Low-Income Countries. And blog: Time for an International Development Research Projects Association. (short thread)

Should have been clearer in thread this data is draft, looks to be imperfectly cleaned, likely suffers from under- and mis-reporting and misses a lot of what was going on at the local level.

I've written a entire draft of a book on this and then the FT just... tweeted it out?

New blog: Millions Lost Access to PEPFAR-Supported HIV Drugs During the US Foreign Assistance Pause The US State Department has collected data on the performance of PEPFAR in 2025, but is yet to officially release it. But some data has become available...

Linking TVET w/ labour mobility could improve quality & outcomes, while supporting employers & economic growth: the manifestation of “aid in the national interest.” New @cgdev.org research w/ @irexintl.bsky.social outlines why donors should do this & how they can. www.cgdev.org/tags/skills-...

"Borjas’s February 2026 working paper attempted to answer whether H-1B workers earn less than comparable native-born workers... [the] findings result from substantial data errors." eig.org/the-flawed-p...

"This time, [USAID] programs that survived the initial purge precisely because they were judged to be lifesaving are slated for cancellation...the administration will soon end all of the humanitarian funding it is currently providing [to] seven African nations...

Interesting stuff from Sophie Edwards at Devex on Ajay Banga and the World Bank's role in the Board of Peace. As the World Bank communications team is at pains to point out, the Bank should be involved in Gaza reconstruction and the UN told the Bank to work with the Board to deliver that....

The Supreme Court reprieve comes too late for a lot of people who used work in garment factories in Lesotho in Haiti. www.wsj.com/world/americ... www.npr.org/2025/07/20/n...

The US says its G20 presidency will be about economic prosperity through better regulation, affordable and secure energy, and new technologies and innovations. You know what would help with all three? Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) contract transparency. www.cgdev.org/blog/us-g20-...

New Blog for CGD: US Aid Cuts Fueled Conflict in Africa www.cgdev.org/blog/us-aid-...

In terms of what cures are being lost: - Epstein-Barr virus is perhaps the major trigger for multiple sclerosis - herpes simplex virus causes cold sores, genital herpes, infections in babies, deadly meningitis - shingles virus causes an intensely painful disease

New blog: The Global Collapse in Funding for the Food Insecure Picture: Countries receiving more or less annual humanitarian support than predicted from number of people food insecure (#$BN) 2017-2025. Thread...

New paper: Can we sustain progress and convergence in an ageing world? We are past peak baby. Richer countries are shrinking and ageing. Knock-on effects in terms of global progress could be considerable. The most powerful tool to mitigate the effects is migration...

The world workforce imbalance: red = declining working age population, green = rising. From: docs.iza.org/dp18308.pdf

Indeed. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/o...

Slowly leaving the orbit of academic economists and development researchers under the gravity of metal musicians and enthusiasts. My Cantril ladder already goes to 11.

Major news outlets: Please consider prominently reporting what this all-star team of researchers has found. www.nber.org/papers/w34791

We do not know the names of the vast majority who have died or will die due to the shuttering of USAID, the US aid pause and assistance cuts, but we do know some. Tim Hirschel-Burns has a list. Suza Kenyaba, Santina, Daniella Kalenga, Mohammed Hashim...

Today @cato.org published our report providing the first look at the fiscal effects of the wave of legal & illegal immigration over the last 3 decades. It shows immigrants created surpluses every year, by a combined $14.5 trillion, even as deficits grew www.cato.org/white-paper/...

Gosh, my Grokipedia entry takes me back. I had such a good time writing for Gene Autry, and still hum "I'd Like to Be a Cow in Switzerland" in the bath. grokipedia.com/page/charles...

In a blog published yesterday I suggested PEPFAR data for 2025 wasn't available. That's true at data.pepfar.gov, but not at data-dev.pepfar.net which apparently went live a few weeks ago. (1/n)

GAO issues report on State Department oversight of assistance to Ukraine. In a draft, makes two recommendations on how things can be done better. Then removes them when State notes they are already being done. So: pretty good overall, then? www.gao.gov/products/gao...

New Blog: Congress: Please Help Restore Lifesaving Data Systems The US Congress has restored considerable global health and humanitarian finance. But it needs to ensure the data is available to use it effectively and monitor delivery. (1/n)...

Sorry, *includes* private non sovereign lending

From the new ONE report on development finance. Picture is net grant and lending flows to low and lower middle income country governments plus other ODA by source (excludes FDI, equity, private loans). cms.one.org/assets/72523...

US Development Finance Corporation did $3.5bn in business last year. For comparison, China's Belt and Road investments last year were about $85bn. www.cgdev.org/blog/looking... greenfdc.org/china-belt-a...

@clemencelanders.bsky.social says IBRD could fill the gap in IDA funding created by falling donor pledges using its $2.8bn/yr profits. It should do that. www.cgdev.org/blog/world-b...

The world has now gone a record amount of time without detonating a nuclear weapon. How long will it last? www.vox.com/future-perfe...

I think this has aged rather well. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Blog: The US Halt on Immigrant Visa Processing. On Wednesday the US announced it was suspending processing for immigrant visa applications in 75 countries home to 2.5 billion people with a combined GNI of $9.9 trillion....

New Blog: Even With Reform, Humanitarian Assistance Needs More US Finance. The US administration is supporting UN humanitarian assistance reform, but unless it provides considerably more resources, many more people will still be at risk in 2026.

Blog: The US Is Staying in Most International Organizations, but Slashing Support www.cgdev.org/blog/us-stay...

New blog: The US Is Staying in Most International Organizations, but Slashing Support. US administration announced that as a result of a review of international organizations to judge if they were "contrary to the interests of the United States," it is exiting 66. Good news?

Blog: What do we want out of poverty measures? I think $1/$3 day international poverty lines a powerful rhetorical tool, but less important for policy. Higher international poverty lines and depth of poverty measures might have (even) less impact? www.cgdev.org/blog/what-do...

The diversity visa lottery is the closest thing to a "line" to immigrate to the US that exists. Yesterday Kristi Noem suspended it indefinitely. I've spent the last few years following someone waiting in that line. Today I published his story timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

There has been well-documented and extensive disruption of life-saving programs. While quantification is difficult, there is little doubt many people have died as a result, and without action many more will die in the future

We have now posted post-doc openings for the Reimagining the Economy Program at Harvard. Interested in economic transformation, industrial policy, place-based policies, and next-generation ideas on generating inclusive prosperity? Apply at www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/wien...

@justsand.bsky.social and I have updated our estimates of lives lost based on cuts to US foreign assistance spending through the end of the fiscal year. They look similar or worse than they did back in June: in the range of 500,000 to 1,000,000 people. www.cgdev.org/blog/update-...

Mounting cholera deaths in Bentiu, South Sudan, due to US assistance cuts. Such stories are multiplying across the world. If Secretary Rubio would act on his promise to preserve lifesaving aid, many hundreds of thousands of deaths could be prevented. www.propublica.org/article/usai...

The US Millennium Challenge Corporation has traditionally worked in poorer countries. That's about to change. Graph is ten-project moving average of income per capita of MCC financing recipients weighted by size of project.

Asian Development Bank celebrates providing government transaction advice, credit guarantees, & direct investments with private providers *all on the same deal.* development.asia/case-study/d... ADB might want to read the Wikipedia entry on conflict of interest? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conflic...

This is a screenshot from USASpending.gov of the International Disaster Assistance Account --the major budget line for US humanitarian relief. Dark teal bar is obligations (contracted commitments to spend money), yellow line is outlays (money spent).

"Migrants who came to the UK on skilled work visas in 2022-23 will make a net contribution of £47bn to the public finances over their lifetime, according to new estimates from the government’s Migration Advisory Committee." Not surprising, but some observations (1/n) www.ft.com/content/10da...

An early (depressing) take on the new US Global Health Strategy MoU signed with Kenya by Emily Bass. substack.com/home/post/p-...

New blog: The Millennium Challenge Corporation’s New Country Scorecards Discriminate Against Development Impact I'm glad the MCC is still open, but it is becoming increasingly irrelevant as a tool for promoting economic development as it works in ever richer countries :-(

Great evidence of the power of transparency to improve outcomes here. www.cgdev.org/publication/...