Good stuff from @alanbeattie.bsky.social, although we cannot have a decent society if migrants (and other humans) are mainly seen as serving the needs of the economy. Maybe ministers think AI will magically replace all migrant labour or that middle managers displaced by AI will pick the veg

Who should qualify for official development assistance (ODA)? Euan Ritchie and @charlesjkenny.bsky.social argue that ODA eligibility should account for purchasing power and use a lower graduation threshold—not new vulnerability measures. https://go.cgdev.org/4udhlqn

New note with (largely by) @euanaritchie.bsky.social: Any Change to ODA Eligibility Should Lower the Graduation Criteria and Account for Purchasing Power The OECD DAC coalition of donors is thinking about redefining ODA, including the income threshold. That threshold should be lower.

Survey suggests 60 percent of funded startup founders in Africa have studied or worked outside Africa. Emigration is a growth strategy. www.nber.org/papers/w35261

All the trade not aid language rings more than a bit hollow when you are slapping tariffs left and right and stopping people coming to make deals.

oops

Dear foot Meet projectile Shot by hand Led by brain Full of straw

WBG hasn't been worried about conflicts of interest between IFC and World Bank because the two “are separate legal entities, with distinct objectives, management, information flows and governance processes.” ...not any more. So, what's the institution doing about that?

@davidpilling.bsky.social on Dangote. Perhaps necessary for Nigerian industrialization? Still sad.

Blog: Too Cavalier About Conflicts of Interest at the World Bank? The Private Sector Investment Lab and the IFC-World Bank unit mergers both raise concerns about conflict of interest policies at the World Bank Group.

Enjoyed writing this for the new magazine In Development: Where’s My Ministry For Emigration? On the new age of mass migration and what it could mean for the developing world. indevelopmentmag.com/wheres-my-mi...

ICE activity => unemployment for the US born. For every immigrant ICE arrests, one US-born worker loses their job. Effect is concentrated amongst non-college educated. www.colorado.edu/today/2026/0...

Relying on emigration as a growth strategy in this global climate risky, but also true of trade. And as the rich world ages, not convinced it will be harder to find a new place to move than a new place to export. One opportunity is expanding in aggregate, the other shrinking.

Obviously I'm more optimistic about the potential upside, but I'd definitely agree that migration as a growth strategy both carries risks and isn't primarily about absolute numbers.

Inspired by @charlesjkenny.bsky.social new paper on emigration as a development strategy I visited the Indian state of Kerala, which has certainly escaped poverty by sending expats to the Gulf but doesn’t look like it will get rich with that approach. economist.com/finance-and-...

The IFC has the potential to be a major player in the world’s poorest countries—but right now, it isn’t delivering. @charlesjkenny.bsky.social argues it’s time to shift toward supporting country-led industrial development strategies, working with governments as key partners. go.cgdev.org/4ug7aSn

New paper: IFC and IDA Countries: Past Time for a New Approach The World Bank's private sector arm is being subsidized by its public sector arm to work more in the poorest countries. It is working less in the poorest countries. This is not smart. A thread.

New blog: Dealing with the Legacy of Billions to Trillions We need a reckoning about the toxic legacy of the idea that we could take billions in aid and generate trillions in private finance for development because it is still polluting development finance discussions...

Blog with @eeshani.bsky.social @markusgold.bsky.social and Brian Webster Cholera Deaths Nearly Doubled in Africa in 2025. Cuts to Aid May Have Contributed. 7,500 reported cholera deaths in SS Africa in 2025, ~2x 2024/2023.

Blog with @eeshani.bsky.social @markusgold.bsky.social and Brian Webster Cholera Deaths Nearly Doubled in Africa in 2025. Cuts to Aid May Have Contributed. 7,500 reported cholera deaths in SS Africa in 2025, ~2x 2024/2023.

New blog: Dealing with the Legacy of Billions to Trillions We need a reckoning about the toxic legacy of the idea that we could take billions in aid and generate trillions in private finance for development because it is still polluting development finance discussions...

New paper: IFC and IDA Countries: Past Time for a New Approach The World Bank's private sector arm is being subsidized by its public sector arm to work more in the poorest countries. It is working less in the poorest countries. This is not smart. A thread.

Please read this NYT piece on the resurgence of AIDS in Zambia: "A year ago, in Mpongwe, there was one case like this each month, or maybe two. In January this year, there were 28 new cases; in February, 28 more; in March, seven more."...

ooh, ahhh, new World Bank Report by Stéphane Straub et al generates new data on global infrastructure stocks (and suggests a 'big push' for infrastructure (especially transport) in LICs and LMICs. openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/pub...

We now have the full FY25 picture for #USAID spending. Compared to FY24, spending fell 23% and future funding commitments dropped 43%. The largest declines were in humanitarian aid, where spending fell from $8.0B to $5.8B and commitments dropped even more sharply. https://go.cgdev.org/4eoFINJ

Blog with @JustinSandefur on USAID cuts, the FY2025 data. TLDR: Aggregate spending picture not far off where we predicted a year ago, sectoral and country distribution different, mortality impact likely lower. Below: changes in USAID country disbursements FY2024 to 2025 (thread)

Mark Mobius was the first person who declined to offer me a job out of college (many followed). But it was an interesting road to rejection. RIP.

What makes this even more intriguing of course is that Dangote is looking to IPO the refinery in the near future, at a valuation that could be in the tens of billions of dollars...

Intriguing: On April 7th, the World Bank publishes a report on Nigeria’s economy. One of the recommendations: open petrol imports to bring prices down. That would be bad news for the profits of Nigeria’s largest refinery, owned by Aliko Dangote.

Fair but depressing conclusion from @economist.com - we could avoid some of the worst of the hunger, but we won’t economist.com/leaders/2026...

Quick thread on newly released Q4 2025 PEPFAR data... TLDR: antiretroviral coverage appears back to levels of 2024 under 'PEPFAR supported' programs, testing still down, I think Q2/Q3 were probably a lot worse, haven't looked at other (v. important) indicators.

Ooooh, aaah indevelopmentmag.com/issues/

Some quick thoughts on Secretary Bessent’s WB/IMF Spring Meetings statement as regards the World Bank bits… TLDR: one really good bit, some silly bits, and a lot in the middle.

Some quick thoughts on Secretary Bessent’s WB/IMF Spring Meetings statement as regards the World Bank bits… TLDR: one really good bit, some silly bits, and a lot in the middle.

Currently ongoing at CGD: the launch of "A Clearer Case for Aid" by Masood Ahmed Mikaela Gavas & Sara Casadevall Bellés. Really like the demand for focus on development in low income countries, calling out the need for different instruments for different challenges, realism about the private sector.

A quick thread on the the U.S. Mission to the United Nations "Trade Over Aid" initiative. “For decades, government aid has been flowing from developed to developing countries with only limited impact,” suggests the Mission.

New blog: Who is getting new US foreign assistance awards and contracts. The answer may surprise you....

Hadn't thought of it that way but... dogma (still a Consensus on H St), ritual (Development Committee), sacred text (WEO), sacred places (WB atrium)... checks out. May the gods of multilateralism smile down upon this gathering of the pure in faith, & maybe some nonviolent smiting of non-believers?

Feb 3 2025: "Despite plans for restructuring, Rubio said the United States would remain the 'most generous nation on Earth.' " 2025 ODA statistics: Germany has overtaken US as largest donor. Sad.

New Blog: A Washington Post editorial last week suggested while the “abrupt change” made to US foreign assistance last year was “messy,” it “forced governments to reform fast.” That underplays the “messy,” and there is little evidence for the reform claim. (1/n)

Blog: The World Bank and Industrial Strategy. The Bank's "Industrial Policy for Development" is in part an update and re-evaluation of the 1993 "East Asian Miracle" report. Bank’s chief economist says Miracle report “has the practical value of a floppy disk today”... [thread]

New blog with Eeshani Kandpal: The World Bank’s Self-Inflicted Crisis. The World Bank is undertaking some extremely odd internal reforms: ▪️ A centralization of expertise that appears to replicate Jim Kim’s “One World Bank Group” model that was widely considered a failure ...

Ahead of the World Bank/IMF annual meetings, both institutions could do more to respond to the Iran War crisis. But is there any appetite to do them? Blogs by Karen Mathiasen, Nico Martinez and Mary Svenstrup www.cgdev.org/blog/between... www.cgdev.org/blog/stress-...

Blog by Clemence Landers and Erin Collinson on the use of the US Development Finance Corporation to insure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. TLDR: it won't work. www.cgdev.org/blog/debt-sw...

New blog with Eeshani Kandpal: The World Bank’s Self-Inflicted Crisis. The World Bank is undertaking some extremely odd internal reforms: ▪️ A centralization of expertise that appears to replicate Jim Kim’s “One World Bank Group” model that was widely considered a failure ...

'Pitcairn has never been on any ODA-eligible list. In its reporting the UK has got around this by labelling aid to Pitcairn as going to “Oceania, regional” or, more bizarrely, attributing it to Saint Helena (which is around 8,000 miles away).' Very strange!

Since Liberation Day, a year ago today: * US foreign direct investment is lower * US factories employ 89,000 fewer people * US goods trade deficit is UP 2% @npr.org www.npr.org/2026/04/02/n...

Glad to announce my next book: *New World Ordure*, available 2027. America is throwing feces at the global economy-- how do countries navigate the feculent waters that result? Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 350 pages, Tarp-back available April 1 2027

Of the 5.3 million new contracts the Trump Administration has agreed since the inauguration, 3 of the 5 largest were issued to Fisher Sand and Gravel to build a border wall, $5bn in total. Not bad considering entire value of federal contracts issued to the company before FY25 was $380m.