This is an excellent thread on the polls and the upcoming Dutch elections by one of the foremost scholars of Dutch politics @tomlouwerse.nl 👇

Driven by fear of the far right, the EU is losing its compass, whether on migration, climate or Gaza. By undermining its own principles, Europe weakens its global position and risks losing not just dignity but political agency. With @jannikjansen.bsky.social: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

!! Excellent! “Counting U.S.-led buys on the list … the total comes to about €6.8 billion, around 8 percent of Berlin’s plan, with the rest overwhelmingly going to European industry.” www.politico.eu/article/germ...

Where the separate divisions of ANTIFA landed on the beaches of Normandy on June 6, 1944:

Jimmy Kimmel’s show has been cancelled - The New Disney #Trump #JimmyKimmel #Disney #LUBACH

cato institute analysis of murders by political ideology since 1975, excluding 9/11

In de eerste weken van de verkiezingscampagne zien we weer te veel voorbeelden waarin peilingen verkeerd gebruikt worden door interviewers, duiders, en journalisten. Daarom hierbij tien vuistregels om de peilingen wijzer te duiden, en om elkaar op aan te spreken. stukroodvlees.nl/peilingen-du...

How will Trump respond to this? @anupriyadatta.bsky.social has this huge story here. www.euractiv.com/section/tech...

Peilingen zijn nuttige instrumenten voor kiezers, politici, en media. Ze kunnen wezenlijke effecten hebben, vooral via de wijze waarop media er - juist én onjuist - over rapporteren. Ook in de campagneperiode hoop ik dat journalisten en duiders de peilingen gebruiken waarvoor ze geschikt zijn:

The EU is the elephant in the room in the Dutch snap election campaign

📰 Media exposure and extreme views A new study found that uncritical TV interviews with extreme right activists increase agreement with their views and the belief that more people support them. 🔗 www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #SciComm 🧪 #MediaBias

NEW! 🚨 My take on Trump's power grab in Washington, DC. 👇

“We’re creating something even more dangerous to the country: A masked monster of a law enforcement agency, one uniquely unsuited for its new power, authority, reach, and funding levels." www.motherjones.com/politics/202...

Job alert! Postdoc position available in my project on EU economic governance — with a focus on fiscally conservative member states. www.academictransfer.com/en/jobs/3536...

🧵 & article on the potential electoral tradeoffs facing social democratic parties, especially along the dimensions of age (much less on education and class). Top-notch political science from a great group of scholars.

Republicans in Congress have structured the most painful benefit cuts in their budget bill to kick in AFTER the 2026 midterms.  But the tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy? Those begin immediately. Remember this.

Powerful example of Justice Jackson bearing witness to what is now evident to all - especially the lower federal courts:

The Supreme Court just took the brakes off. They gutted nationwide injunctions...one of the last fast-acting tools to block presidential overreach. This is the most dangerous shift of the Trump era yet—and most people won’t see it until it’s too late. www.jackhopkinsnow.com

Absolutely striking numbers. 65% of Germans support Germany significantly increasing its defence expenditures to reach NATO’s 5%* goal. *it’s a 3,5%+ goal, to be exact.

This is one of the most eye-opening things I've read this week. If you're interested in what drives Netanyahu, I'd really recommend it. 🧵1/n

Just to give an idea of how much the Trump administration wants to "help" the citizens of Los Angeles by sending in the military

The replies to this. Bluesky gold.

What happened in the Netherlands and what will happen next? I wrote a short piece about the collapse of the Dutch government for @ukandeu.bsky.social ukandeu.ac.uk/when-not-if-...

Enkele maanden geleden werd gesuggereerd dat Wilders de volgende verkiezingen sowieso zal gaan winnen. Een paar redenen waarom dat helemaal niet zo evident is:

The PVV has left the Dutch coalition. What does this mean? Will there we be new elections? When? Who will win? Which government will form? 🧵

Dutch polls are a rollercoaster

My take on the broader implications of the outcome of Polish presidential elections published in the Guardian today. ps. this is not the title I chose… 👇🏽 www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Given the local election results in the UK, a short #thread - based on much of our own research - on the vicious cycle of radical right support that we have seen in many countries. 1) When radical right parties (such as Reform) are electorally successful established parties move right on immigration

The German coalition treaty is in, and digesting it for EU and foreign/security policy, a couple of things stand out to me: First, the foreign/security part no longer includes threat of Russian attack on NATO in the next five years, and is more traditional on US partnership.

What is - very effectively - lost in all the confected outrage by the extreme right is that LE PEN CHEATED IN FRENCH ELECTIONS BY STEALING MONEY FROM THE EU AND USING IT IN FRANCE. Amazing how this gets buried in newspaper reports even in excellent newspapers.

Eppo Bruins wil in de voorhoede blijven van landen waar wetenschappers voor kiezen. Daarom (checks notes): - heftige bezuinigingen - de-internationalisering (ten koste van studenten uit NL) - morele steun voor beurzen voor wetenschappers VS, te betalen via bezuinigingen op andere onderzoeksbeurzen

Et voilà: Germany's €500 billion investment package and debt brake reform for defence spending passed with a stable majority in the Bundestag. Next step: Bundesrat www.zdf.de/nachrichten/...

Amsterdam higher education on strike. #DoeHetNiet @woinactie.bsky.social

The new loan facility for European defence has a name now, 'Security Action For Europe', short SAFE. Legal proposal expected to put forward within the next ten days based on Art. 122. It can thus be adopted by qualified majority, so no individual veto, but also no parliamentary co-decision.

A very stimulating read

Very good thread (in German) analysing in depth where the AfD won and mobilised its voters:

First exit polls are in, and it is extremely tight. The ZDF has both FDP and BSW in, which means only a three party coalition can work, whereas the ARD has both just bout failing to enter parliament, allowing for an CDU/CSU & SPD coalition. This will be a long night for German politics.

Please share this fact sheet on Ukraine with anyone who needs it understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

Here is what to watch out for in the 6pm exit polls: 1) does the CDU cross 30% & how large is the gap to the AfD? 2) is there a majority of seats for a CDU-SPD coalition? This is the easiest (but by no means easy) coalition to negotiate. 3) are FDP and BSW in or out? 4) how well does die Linke do?

As Germans head for the polls today, the stakes could not be higher for Germany‘s future and Europe. My in-depth analysis on Merz‘ huge mistakes, but also some hope that the centre will get its act together in light of what happened since Munich.

Nederland laat zich lam slaan, Noord-Europa wijst de weg - mijn column in ⁦‪@nrc.nl‬⁩ www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2025/...

My thoughts on the Russian-American talks on Ukraine, without Ukraine. The simplest interpretation of the available facts is that the Americans are using Russian violence to try to exploit Ukraine. snyder.substack.com/p/peace-or-p...

I’m in Munich and people keep asking me to decode Vance’s speech. OK: In Vance English “free speech” means “Let Musk run your elections” and “democracy” means “let Russia run your elections.” Now move on. 2025 is about what Europeans do, not what Americans say.

With Macron calling an intergovernmental summit in Paris tomorrow, many wonder what is best institutional venue to discuss Europe's response to biggest security crisis since 1945. Here are 8 reasons why intergovernmental route is crucial now instead of relying on 🇪🇺 & Brussels institutions. 🧵👇 1/10

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state... This is by far the best, clearest and most realistic analysis of what we're in for that I've seen.

For those in the EU hoping for a more stable German government after February: there exists a real possibility that there won't be a majority for a two-party coalition between CDU/SPD or CDU/Greens, and that we will end up looking at a complicated three-party government in Berlin once again

Auschwitz was at the end of a long process. It did not start from gas chambers. This hatred was gradually developed by humans. From ideas, words, stereotypes & prejudice through legal exclusion, dehumanization & escalating violence... to systematic and industrial murder. Auschwitz took time.

This afternoon, CDU Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz gave a keynote speech on foreign and EU policy at @koerberip.bsky.social. A thread on his main points on the EU and Germany's role in it: