It was under the ‘Exposure’ umbrella and broadcast 21 Sept.

‘Covid Contracts: Follow the Money’ is on ITV1 & ITVX

"The most powerful and influential people in the UK remain 5 times more likely to have attended a fee-paying school than the general population." Still, with all those independent schools closing owing to VAT being imposed on their fees by the government, no doubt that'll soon change....

On this one, Farage might actually be going too far for some of Reform's less diehard supporters. Even leaving aside the absurdly inflated claims of savings and the logistical nightmare it would create, the retrospective nature of the proposal goes against popular notions what is and isn't 'fair'.

😂💇‍♂️🤡

The Windrush Scandal, the Grenfell Tower tragedy, Boris partying with Russians in Italy in the middle of the pandemic, the cost of sending people to Rwanda, the Infected blood scandal, etc. But immigrants are evil

It is nonetheless inexcusable given the recognition that Reform is a possible even though improbable winner that no steps are being taken to limit creation of both Lords temporal and Lords spiritual by a Prime Minister

Editor to subs: cut 'highly contentious' and replace with 'batshit crazy'.

An even worse example of legitimising batshit crazy is the BBC article on this. www.bbc.com/news/article...

The strategy of decades of extreme right parties trying to normalise relies on them not revealing their explicit core too early. So revealing this was a big strategic mistake on their part. The marker is racism, and who is and isn’t in the community is how you locate that marker in their programme.

And he's broken his own former red lines - seems likely due to pressure to his right

IMO most of Farages actions over the past 3 months have been strategic mistakes. Deportations, pulling closer to Trump, a lot of the DOGE stuff. Hes making the political weather and tactical gains, but at the expense of some huge hostages to fortune 4 years out from a election

From Politico’s Playbook… I very much hope this foul Reform remigration policy withers immediately on the vine. But what it has done is much more clearly place a ‘far right’ marker on Reform that they will find it hard to shrug off. Yes it was a moral travesty but also a political mistake IMO.

Let’s hope…

“The way to think of Britain is of a homeowner who has not done any home repairs or bought new appliances for a sustained period of time. In doing so, they boosted their day-to-day standard of living because they could dedicate all their income to everyday consumption”

It just straightforwardly *insane* how much political chatter in the United Kingdom is about the next general election, an event that is a long way in the future, and how basically none of it is about 'uh, this policy agenda doesn't look adequate to the scale of the inherited problem'.

The even more unbelievable crime fact (which I learned relatively recently) is that burglary has fallen by more than 90% since the 1990s. Did anyone notice? Nope. Does anyone believe it? Nope. But is is true? It is!

big part of this is because they sent the health reporters, not the political reporters

Nails it: 'New York University bioethicist Art Caplan said it was “the saddest display of a lack of evidence, rumors, recycling old myths, lousy advice, outright lies, and dangerous advice I have ever witnessed by anyone in authority.”'

Prof Ford’s cautionary note …

“Reform’s greatest strength - its leading position in a fragmented landscape - is also its greatest potential weakness. Voters who reject Reform still outnumber those who support it by more than two to one. Reform can be defeated if its opponents can come together”

Prof Ford: “The Reform earthquake next year could be as big, or even bigger. Reform was polling in the high 20s in the months before the May locals, now it is polling in the low 30s. Reform’s growing poll leads make them an electoral Snow White in a land of political dwarves”

“Two things are clear. 1. Reform does better today in places where UKIP did better a decade ago… 2. Reform outperforms UKIP most where the latter was weakest in 2013. Reform are 9 points stronger than UKIP in strongest UKIP districts, but beat UKIP 2013 by 18 points where UKIP was weakest”

‘Peak UKIP’ came in 2013, when most of the same councils were up for election as this May. UKIP won around 25% of the vote in the seats it stood & won 147 seats - Reform won just a few percentage points more votes, but over four times as many seats, despite fewer seats being available to win”

“At a certain point, first past the post drastically magnifies and accelerates change. Below 29%, Reform win few seats anywhere, and control nothing. Above 33%, just a few percentage points more, Reform win most seats everywhere, and control every town hall”

“The key to this remarkable success lies in the FPTP electoral system used in English local elections, as it is in Westminster contests. This system has been a sandbag for young insurgent parties but it became a springboard for Reform”

“The Tories lost 45% of their 2021 Council seats to Reform this time, while Labour lost half of their seats to Farage’s party. The Liberal Democrats, by contrast, held over 90% of the seats they were defending”

Prof Rob Ford - open.substack.com/pub/swingome...?

Heather Richardson - Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, claiming Brazil is engaged in a ‘witch-hunt’ against Bolsonaro. In addition the US is sanctioning the *wife* of the Brazilian Supreme Court justice who oversaw the Bolsonaro prosecution. open.substack.com/pub/heatherc...?

The likelihood is that most Reform/UKIP voters are the ones claiming benefits and the ones struggling to find jobs because they left education at 16. “A thief thinks everyone is a thief” (I don’t have a problem with people claiming benefits if they’re in need)

“Last October, when I suggested that misinformation, whatever its root, was a cause of much hostility to immigrants, Matthew Parris sent me a brief email: ‘No, Peter. The misbelief does not cause the hostility. The hostility causes the misbelief.’

In 2013, when stories of ‘welfare tourism by EU citizens’ caused a fuss, YouGov found that most people massively overstated the (actually very small) proportion of people born in the EU who claimed benefits. UKIP supporters overstated the figures most of all.

Peter Kellner: The gap between public debate & reality is so wide that many voters no longer see the country they actually live in … Our society, for all its faults, is probably safer, richer and better than any before it. Progress is the truth that is hidden. open.substack.com/pub/kellnerp...?

open.substack.com/pub/morningc...?

Diagnostic criteria are the primary reason autism rates have spiked. It’s a complex condition that does not have a single cause: Studies suggest genetics play a bigger role than environmental factors in determining a person’s autism risk though both seem likely to contribute & may work in concert.

Will Badenoch follow suit? Will she call out Five Garages Farage? Or just let it just slide by? Does she have any limits or will she simply echo what Farage says? Has she any distinctive Tory policies at all? Without any kind of credo she and her party are gone.

The ‘Overton Side Step’ is a humorous satirical dig at Starmer. But reality is intruding as Farage is trying to Out-Far-Right Lowe. The latter had already taken Tommy Robinson and Britain First/EDL on board to support forced deportation of resident immigrants. Farage now says the same.

France has officially recognised the Palestinian state at a UN summit on a two-state solution. The New York summit is being boycotted by the US and Israel. news.sky.com/story/gaza-l...

Trump links paracetamol use in pregnancy to increased risk of autism - here's what the evidence says. Avoiding paracetamol could do more harm than good. apple.news/An1dKgc5LT6i...

This is mad wacky science: “FDA Commissioner Marty Makary, National Institutes for Health Director Jay Bhattacharya and Centres for Medicare Services Administrator Mehmet Oz – suggest leucoverin - used to treat cancer and anemia patients - can help ASD children too” apple.news/Af6jYcao5Sra...