Post-combine WR update! I'm splitting hairs with the top-five and this isn't the order I would draft them in. The model includes teammate adjustments and it produces the variables weights based on how much they've mattered historically. But I still wonder if Jeremiah Smith isn't properly accounted.

Post-combine TE update! Biggest surprise to me is the gap between Sadiq and Stowers is shrinking fast. Stowers' athleticism isn't quite as insane as Sadiq's, but it's pretty close and he actually has production to match that athleticism. He checks nearly every box besides elite draft capital.

Post-combine rookie RB update! And a guy that did basically nothing at the combine due to injury, Nick Singleton, is currently my RB3. We want pass catching, TDs, and explosive runs from our RBs. Singleton's 1.52 YPRR, nearly 8% career rushing TD rate, and estimated speed score check every box.

Rookie QB primer! By far the least interesting position from a model perspective because it's so heavily weighted toward draft capital, with film grade and rookie year ADP also important. With only 2 QBs projected to go in Round 1...we only have 2 QBs that we truly care about in fantasy.

Rookie QB primer! By far the least interesting position from a model perspective because it's so heavily weighted toward draft capital, with film grade and rookie year ADP also important. With only 2 QBs projected to go in Round 1...we only have 2 QBs that we truly care about in fantasy.

Superflex rookie szn is officially here👀 @herms.bsky.social pulled together a 12-team superflex PPR rookie mock before combine data & ADP settle... Love or Mendoza at 1 & what that means for your rookie boards ⬇️ ftnfantasy.com/nfl/love-or-...

This is one of my favorite exercises each year, partially because I think the graph looks cool. But it's also useful. I really like ESPN Analytics' WR scores. The graph clusters WRs into 4 buckets based on their Open, Catch, and YAC scores. The player names are an example of each group.

This is one of my favorite exercises each year, partially because I think the graph looks cool. But it's also useful. I really like ESPN Analytics' WR scores. The graph clusters WRs into 4 buckets based on their Open, Catch, and YAC scores. The player names are an example of each group.

We’re sure they know the definition of the word?

I really liked @bengretch.bsky.social's callout in his Field Tippers article that the distribution of aDoT is important context. That's what the graph below shows. The x-axis is aDoT while the y-axis is the standard deviation of air yards per target. And I highlighted 3 interesting guys.

WR tight window (TW) target rates are often a QB stat. Most QBs tend to keep their TW rate pretty stable. Here are Dak's finishes in TW rate over the last 4 seasons: 1st, 4th, 1st, and 1st. But we did have some big upticks this year from Baker (derogatory) and Lawrence/Stafford (complimentary).

It's a long offseason, so I'm starting a new series detailing each stat that popped in my weekly fantasy point prediction models. I'll start things off with WR slot rate. A lot of great work has been done showing problems with high slot rates in the current NFL meta. But what about low slot rates?

@mrcaseb.com Any chance you had some luck finding 2025 injury data for nfl_data_py?

There’s a very real chance that Sean Mannion was hired to elevate a clear deficiency in Jalen Hurts’ game, and may wind up being the perfect fit to fix what’s ailed the Eagles’ offense. ▶️ mattlombardonfl.substack.com/p/how-the-su...

The SIS NFL Draft Website is live!!🔥🔥 We've got more than 100 scouting reports up (the top players are well covered) with ~200 more to come. There's also skill ratings, plenty of statistical analysis, injury details & much more. Come check it out! nfldraft.sportsinfosolutions.com

With the #Eagles bringing in Sean Mannion as offensive coordinator and Josh Grizzard as passing game coordinator, here is a look at how the offenses they just came from compared to the Eagles in terms of play style tendencies.

Absolutely insane from Kenneth Walker

Really interested to see a few things in the Bills/Broncos game. Opponents pass on the Broncos at one of the highest rates in the league and do so with a very-high aDoT. Well, that's not what the Bills have wanted to do this year.

13% of teams in The Gauntlet last year, after the playoff bracket was determined, still could not fill out a full lineup during Super Bowl week. That was for any possible Super Bowl matchup, not just the one that ultimately happened. The rake is 11.1% in comparison. www.4for4.com/2025/w19/ult...

Game preview tables for TB/CAR tomorrow!

Pass rate over expected (PROE) by team and week. I'm hoping we see the early-season version of the Chargers next year when their offensive line isn't an injured mess. The Lions are usually one of the least volatile teams in the league, but they've been all over the place recently.

I mute Redzone during every commercial as a matter of principle.

Hoopes There It Is: Week 16 Game Preview is live Week 15 got ugly — and this time of year we’re hunting ceiling. The key: good offenses + condensed volume (target concentration) Full game-by-game preview 👇

For the Underdog playoff best ball folks! The best Gauntlet team with 4 or fewer players in the Super Bowl last year finished in 82nd place. The best team without Mahomes/Hurts finished in 113th. 13% of teams could not fill out a full lineup during the Super Bowl. www.4for4.com/2025/w19/ult...

For the Underdog playoff best ball folks! The best Gauntlet team with 4 or fewer players in the Super Bowl last year finished in 82nd place. The best team without Mahomes/Hurts finished in 113th. 13% of teams could not fill out a full lineup during the Super Bowl. www.4for4.com/2025/w19/ult...

Hoopes There It Is: Week 15 Game Preview 🏈 📈 Fantasy playoffs = every lineup call matters 🧠 EPA/play vs plays-per-game chart to frame every matchup 🔍 @stephenhoopes.bsky.social walks through all 16 games so you can sanity-check those start/sit decisions

Jauan Jennings has 4+ catches in 7 straight games. The last #49ers wide receiver with a longer streak was Anquan Boldin with 9 in a row in 2014

“What this offense really needs is more hitch routes.” - Nick

Another satisfied customer.

Hoopes There It Is: Week 13 Game Preview 👇 • Chiefs back atop PROE, but the run game is still a problem • Cards, Cowboys, Bengals, Rams passing volume we want to chase • A few implied totals that say more than the spreads

Hoopes There It Is: Week 12 Game Preview 🏈 🔥 Trade-deadline angles before Saturday’s Yahoo cutoff 📊 Explosive play data + expected fantasy points for Week 17 🧠 Start/sit leans for every Week 12 matchup Full breakdown from @stephenhoopes.bsky.social ⬇️

“Let’s see Sean Payton forget about RJ Harvey now!” *15 Jaleel McLaughlin carries per game* “Ahh well nevertheless”

PFF's second-highest graded rookie receiver? You guessed it: Jaylin Noel. Shoutout my fellow propagandists @stephenhoopes.bsky.social @riversmccown.bsky.social and shoutout Lauren Gray, who does some of the best WR work in all the land www.pff.com/news/nfl-wid...

I wonder if Aaron Glenn doesn't want to be asked about his QBs because he knows Breece Hall is clearly his best option?

Hoopes There It Is — Week 11 Game Preview 🧨📈 • SEA due for volume through the air; CHI volatility cuts both ways • NE–NYJ trench edge, HOU–TEN mismatch, GB run funnel for Jacobs • Start vibes & matchup reads for every game Full preview 👇

Graphs for tonight! The season-long numbers look bleak for the Raiders. But, they're coming off a solid game last week, hitting a 51.5% success rate and 79th-percentile passing efficiency. They leaned heavily into the pass with an 11.6% pass rate over expected (PROE), and are average on the season.

Hoopes There It Is: Week 10 🏈 @stephenhoopes.bsky.social breaks down every matchup from a betting + fantasy lens: 📊 Success-rate trends 🚨 Turnover chaos from Week 9 💡 Concentrated offenses to target 🔎 Full game-by-game breakdowns for every team

Lmao

🎃 Halloween Eve football in Miami! Lamar returns, Ravens –7.5 @ Dolphins (51.5 O/U) 👀 Baltimore’s stars in great spots 🔥 Waddle + Achane can light it up too Full preview from @stephenhoopes.bsky.social: www.4for4.com/2025/w9/hoop...

Quick hits from @stephenhoopes.bsky.social 🔍 🔥 A few pass games ready to explode 💪 One rushing attack built to bully 🧠 A sneaky TE spot you’ll want in lineups 🚫 Two offenses to keep on the bench Full Week 9 breakdown 🔽 www.4for4.com/2025/w9/hoop...

2 things I'm excited to see in the PHI/NYG game. NYG led the league in 2-TE dropbacks last week. And they're 2x as efficient compared to 1-TE DBs with Dart. Hurts had 3 under-center play action DBs last week, compared to 4 total Weeks 1-6. He leads the league in efficiency (very small sample).

Thursday Night kicks off with Vikings ⚔️ vs. Chargers ⚡ Wentz is hanging onto the job (for now), Justin Jefferson’s still commanding double-digit targets, and Jordan Mason could lose work if Aaron Jones returns. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert just fed his receivers 50 targets 😳

Hoopes There It Is: Week 8 Game Preview

After last night's insanity, and with Puka Nacua leaving early in Week 6, Ja'Marr Chase has retaken the expected fantasy point lead among WRs. A 23 (!) target game will certainly help with that.

After last night's insanity, and with Puka Nacua leaving early in Week 6, Ja'Marr Chase has retaken the expected fantasy point lead among WRs. A 23 (!) target game will certainly help with that.

PIT can't possibly keep getting away with it. They have a below-average passing success rate with the lowest number of plays in the league...But they probably can against CIN, especially with Trey Hendrickson likely out. PIT remains the 5-1 manager in your league with the fewest points against.

KC reclaimed the pass rate over expectation (PROE) crown from LAC. There have been 9 instances of a team hitting at least 10% PROE this season, and KC has 3 of them. They're going to pass regardless, but especially this week with the Raiders' 6th-most-efficient run defense and Rashee Rice returning.

📊 Eagles vs. Giants — Thursday Night Preview @stephenhoopes.bsky.social dives deep into tonight’s matchup: • Eagles’ passing splits vs man & zone • Hurts’ efficiency rebound potential • Giants’ offensive volatility • Theo Johnson sneaky volume play 🔗 www.4for4.com/2025/w6/hoop...

The full Week 6 “Hoopes There It Is” breakdown is live 🧠 Implied totals, PROE trends, TD regression candidates, and which offenses are heating up (or cooling fast). Full game-by-game preview from @stephenhoopes.bsky.social ⬇️ www.4for4.com/2025/w6/hoop...