My latest with Svante Cornell on the potential of Central Asia-Nordic cooperation.

Chinese influence in the #CentralAsia region will significantly increase and will be especially important in the coming years. buff.ly/pQE7A3i

How is the Nordic experience of regional cooperation relevant to the distant Central Asia? Read more on this intriguing topic here: buff.ly/EprDyZv

Den som hoppas på fred i Ukraina vid fredagens möte i Alaska mellan Trump och Putin hoppas för mycket – Ryssland har gång på gång genom åren talat om fred och svarat med kulor. @dagensnyheter.bsky.social @sceeus-ui.bsky.social @uisweden.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social @sveukr.bsky.social

After a country is taken over by illiberal rule, it's not easy to bring the pendulum back to liberalism. Read FREE: muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...

Thanks @FPRI for publishing my look at some of the Chinese investment and deals for projects in Central Asia since 2023. www.fpri.org/article/2025...

Capitalism isn't a threat to democracy on its own. The real threat is state capture of business. Read "Can Capitalism Save Democracy?" by Semuhi Sinanoglu, Lucan Way, and Steven Levitsky: muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...

The Nordic region and the Central Asian region have more in common and more to learn from each other than meets the eye. The case for why the Nordic countries should engage Central Asia. nationalinterest.org/blog/silk-ro...

Our @pannierb.bsky.social makes the case for Uzbekistan's military budget rise signaling its potential as a Central Asian power timesca.com/uzbekistans-... #Uzbekistan #CentralAsia #MilitaryBudget #UzbekDefense #MilitaryStrategy #CentralAsianSecurity #PolicyAnalysis

Amid talks of a new European security architecture, European countries no longer have the luxury of ignoring Türkiye. Re-upping this piece from a year ago, in which I argued that it is a strong EU interest to strengthen security cooperation with Ankara.

Fresh off-the-press: I had the honor of contributing a chapter on Kazakhstan for the 2025 Atlas Freedom and Prosperity Around the World, the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social's flagship publication: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...

Caucasus and Central Asia - different worlds? Not anymore. As trade routes are redrawn and diplomatic alliances diversified, the Caspian Sea is becoming a unifier rather than divider of the regions. The EU should develop a comprehensive strategy that recognizes this evolving geopolitical landscape.

If you’re unsure why 🇹🇷🇪🇺 EU-Türkiye relations are important? 🔟-point-list 👇 ———————— 1️⃣ Germany’s 🇩🇪🇪🇺 economy (& by extension Europe) depends on 🇹🇷 Türkiye, and vice versa. German 🇩🇪🇪🇺 supply-chains (not only trade) largely depend on China 🇨🇳, Poland 🇵🇱🇪🇺 and Türkiye . . . Continued

Will Donald Trump divide and rule a Europe that is too weak to stand on its own feet? My take in @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/30/e...

"The shifting geopolitical landscape presents the U.S. with a unique opportunity to adopt a more proactive foreign policy toward Central Asia," writes Uzbekistan's former ambassador to the US Javlon Vakhabov for @thediplomat.com thediplomat.com/2025/01/rene...

Caucasus and Central Asia - different worlds? Not anymore. As trade routes are redrawn and diplomatic alliances diversified, the Caspian Sea is becoming a unifier rather than divider of the regions. The EU should develop a comprehensive strategy that recognizes this evolving geopolitical landscape.

🆕 Read CACI's new Feature Article: "The Convergence of the South Caucasus and Central Asia: an Opportunity for a New EU partnership" by Johan Engvall (@jengvall.bsky.social). 🔗 Link here: https://buff.ly/40O6ibS

In the South Caucasus and Central Asia, the desire to forge closer ties with the EU has increased following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. @jengvall.bsky.social, #SCEEUS, in NEE @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @ecpr.bsky.social @fpri.bsky.social @euwatch.live @caucasussurvey.bsky.social

Ten years of insufficient support for Ukraine, coupled with many states' continued trade with Russia, have led Kyiv to shift from a defensive to an offensive stance. My today's @kyivindependent.com article based on a #SCEEUS commentary. @nordicukraine.bsky.social @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social

The Ukrainian foray into Russian state territory deconstructs the image – inside Russia and around the world – of a seemingly static frontline, stable force constellation, and predictable course of the conflict. @nordicukraine.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social

A Russian victory over Ukraine would have grave implications not only for the post-Soviet region, but far beyond it. Conversely, a Ukrainian success in its defense against Russia will have stabilizing and innovating effects far beyond Eastern Europe. The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune

Anniversary of #Belarus2020 mass protests Check out our special issue “The Dynamics of Mass Mobilization in Belarus” by @gwendolynsasse.bsky.social & me How can & should we analyze mass mobilization and its outcomes in authoritarian states as social scientists? www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Kyiv has not only changed the military narrative on the ground but also tries to change the narrative on negotiations—from a “land for peace” deal to a “land for land” deal. My today's piece in @foreignpolicy.com @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social

"Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia Could Bring a Quicker End to the War" ...has now been for almost 24 hours the top story, number one editors' pick & most trending article on the website of @foreignpolicy.com. Here is a gift link for free access to the text: foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/09/k...

A Ukrainian victory and recovery may save not only Ukraine but also its neighbors from Russian imperialism. Ukraine’s fight also contributes to solving numerous larger problems of the world today. @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social @ukrainer.bsky.social

Dans les faits, le PO original s’est effondré, la ligne de démarcation nette entre le Caucase du Sud et l’Asie centrale se dissout rapidement, et une véritable dynamique transcaspienne émerge. @jengvall.bsky.social in @deskrussie.bsky.social CC: @ifri.bsky.social @geopolitique.bsky.social

Very important and informative new Center for Strategic and International Studies-report by @drjademcglynn.bsky.social whose seminal book "Russia's War" is also highly recommended. www.csis.org/analysis/cro...

The West can learn so much from Ukrainian resistance to russia. My own country, Canada, is committing to buying a few conventional submarines. But what I think we need are the equivalent price in Seababy and other water/underwater drones.

Had there not been so many Western misconceptions about Russia’s 2014-21 invasion, today’s larger war might have been avoided. With J. Kazdobina & @jakobhedenskog.bsky.social @foreignpolicy.com @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @ukrainer.bsky.social @ukrainekompakt.bsky.social @munsecconf.bsky.social

Is it so difficult to understand what Putin's even partial victory means for international order? States would try to be either as smart as Russia & use WMDs to expand their territory, or they would try to be not as stupid as Ukraine & acquire WMDs to protect their territory. Or both.

Theories are there to generate possible explanations that can be verified, modified, or falsified. They are not meant to be preached as catechisms & followed as religions. E-International Relations The Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI)

Putin's adventurism has developed over the last quarter of a century against the backdrop of Moscow's military aggression remaining more or less unpunished, or Western punitive measures turning out to be air acts. @nordicukraine.bsky.social @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @ukrainekompakt.bsky.social

Ukraine's local governance reform is sometimes seen as driven by foreign factors. This chapter aims to remedy this gap & explain the prehistory of the Ukrainian decentralization. With Valentyna Romanova, IDE-JETRO @aseees.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social

Turkey has its own agenda, which does not include subordination to either Russia or China. It is a Western interest to encourage Turkey’s emergence as a partial counterweight to this axis. Dr @jengvall.bsky.social, #SCEEUS at The Swedish Institute of International Affairs, for The National Interest

Czech President Pavel on Saturday: "Europe is at the start of a longer confrontation wIth Russia." He emphasized that Russia's intentions extend beyond Ukraine. The question arises: where should the boundaries be set? @badzmyrazemtvp.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @deaidua.org

Simplistic analytical models that cast Putin as an all-powerful autocrat obscure how the Russian political system actually works. nationalinterest.org/feature/peri...

Russia’s subversion of international order not only concerns the European continent. It may be more dangerous for weak non-Western countries than for NATO members or non-NATO allies of the US. THE NATIONAL INTEREST @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social

A shortage of ammunition, manpower, and fortifications are the main causes behind Ukraine's defenses reaching a breaking point. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggAk...

Skarpare uttalanden från Macron och Cameron är tänkta att skapa en osäkerhet hos Kreml. Jan Majlard - @svenskadagbladet1.bsky.social CC: @sipri.bsky.social @statsvetfo.bsky.social @mhafhs.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social @sveukr.bsky.social

Våldsamma protester fortsätter att skaka Georgiens huvudstad Tbilisi. En Ukrainabaserad expert fruktar en utveckling som i Kiev under Euromajdan. ”Ett första dödsfall kan bli den tändande gnistan” Jan Majlard in @svenskadagbladet1.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social

Actors interested in Ukraine should emphasize that the armed conflict in the Donbas in 2014–22 was a delegated interstate war between Russia and Ukraine, and not a Ukrainian civil war. With @jakobhedenskog.bsky.social @sceeus-ui.bsky.social @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social

As Russia’s war against Ukraine approaches its two-year mark, why is there still no negotiated end to it & unlikely to be one in the near future? Four circumstances are currently hindering a compromise between Kyiv & Moscow. @sceeus-ui.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social

I see a lot of doom/gloom about the 🇷🇺🇺🇦 war now. But the West still has agency on the outcome. However it needs to decide fast to turn things around: training, procurement, munition production. My 3 scenarios for @ecfr.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/ukra...

As soon as a meaningful agreement is signed between Kyiv and Moscow, its functioning must be ensured. In light of Russia’s behavior in the post-Soviet space over the past 30 years, securing future peace will only be possible with plausible deterrence against a renewed escalation.

Thank you, CNN, for having the basic good sense not to immediately and unquestioningly headline the Russian version of events. Unlike so many other Western media outlets that you would think by now would know better.

This week for World Politics Review, I examine the early 1990s war in Moldova and the Moscow-backed secession of Transnistria that were early signs missed by too many in the West of how far post-Soviet Russian elites were embracing imperial ambitions. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/russia-moldo...

Experts' Scenarios on Russia's Future. Edited by S. Frederick Starr. Washington, DC: Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, 2024. silkroadstudies.org/publications... @aseees.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @pspolisci.bsky.social

Wherein I argue that the very different East Central European responses to Ukraine have more to do with elites' personal interests than strategery. Also, can we please retire "postcommunist" as an analytical category? muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...

A recent article of mine details Russia’s many weapons of influence in Kyrgyzstan. www.cacianalyst.org/publications...