New 🇪🇺🇹🇷 article by @news.dw.com is kind enough to quote my analysis. Çok teşekkürler / Danke🙏 Topic: İmamoğlu imprisonment and Erdogan reach for power & international bargaining 🇺🇸🇪🇺👇 🔸”Türkiye's 🇹🇷 natural choice should be Europe, where it shares a common geography.” . . . Continued

I wish I could have joined you in Rome 🇮🇹🇪🇺, Bucharest 🇷🇴🇪🇺, Belgrade 🇷🇸🇪🇺, Brussels 🇧🇪🇪🇺, Berlin 🇩🇪🇪🇺, Tbilisi 🇬🇪🇪🇺and many more cities this weekend for the #EuropeMarch. I wore my 🇪🇺 jumper for a morning jog. Viva L’Europa! 🙏 #UnitedInDiversity #StrongerTogether #ContinentalUnity

Thousands of people gathered in Bucharest, Romania to declare their solidarity with Europe and Ukraine, and to reject Russia and Trump's attempts to corrupt their democracy. #3E #RomaniaProtests

I wish I could have joined you in Rome 🇮🇹🇪🇺, Bucharest 🇷🇴🇪🇺, Belgrade 🇷🇸🇪🇺, Brussels 🇧🇪🇪🇺, Berlin 🇩🇪🇪🇺, Tbilisi 🇬🇪🇪🇺and many more cities this weekend for the #EuropeMarch. I wore my 🇪🇺 jumper for a morning jog. Viva L’Europa! 🙏 #UnitedInDiversity #StrongerTogether #ContinentalUnity

#French 🇫🇷🇪🇺 #intelligence community publishes my views on considering #Türkiye 🇹🇷 in European security architecture 👇 Ex-senior-intelligence & military-industrial expert Alain Rodier adds my views in 2025 public article for ‘Centre Francais Recherche sur les Renseignement’👇 cf2r.org/actualite/quel…

. . . Now, geo-politics, customs union and new security agenda are at play. Paradoxically, EU-Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relations have never been more relevant and fragile at the same time. Read my article (2024) about #Türkiye in Europe’s New Security Architecture 🇪🇺🇹🇷 liberalforum.eu/wp-content/u...

. . . Perhaps personal relationship of two leaders is lacking. Perhaps structural-divisions are too great between two of Europe’s leading powers. Only time will tell. What remains certain: 🇫🇷 popular misconceptions about 🇹🇷 and 🇫🇷 should be relegated to the past. . . . (Continued)

. . . Complex points of contention 🇫🇷🇹🇷👇 🔸Africa influence 🔸Caucasus & Central Asia 🔸Customs Union & EIB 🔸Security, Space & Defence 🔸Strategic Autonomy 🔸Eastern Mediterranean 🔸Cyprus territorial integrity 🔸Greek maritime 🔸Nuclear Plants 🔸Theology & Laicite 🔸Syria 🔸Migration . . . (Continued)

. . . @EmmanuelMacron.bsky.social should accept Erdoğan’s invitation to Ankara instead of always stalling. @rterdogana.bsky.social personnel should privately propose something more concrete to Paris, instead of offering little concrete. . . . (Continued)

The fastest way for Europe to counter American threats is through 🇫🇷🇪🇺🇹🇷 Franco-Turkish rapprochement. The question is whether 🇹🇷 Ankara and 🇫🇷Paris are willing to sacrifice or will instead out-rat/out-bid each other to Washington. . . . (Continued)

No Elon Musk. Europe does not need American 🇺🇸 and Russian 🇷🇺 foreign interference to make “Europe Great Again”. Europe needs👇 🔸 EU Unity 🇪🇺 🔸 EU Defence 🚀 🔸 EU Bonds 💶 🔸 EU Nuclear ☢️ 🔸 EU Technology & Social Media👨‍🔬

#Türkiye’s 🇹🇷 most read (top 3) newspaper @Hurriyet translated & reprinted my Op-Ed into Turkish languagefor domestic 🇹🇷 audience ⤵️ 🇪🇺🇹🇷 Çok teşekkürler 🙏 Main points of Op-Ed 👇 🔸Trump 🇺🇸 #hypocrisy with Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 🔸#Nuclear France 🇫🇷🇪🇺 & German 🇩🇪🇪🇺#Eurobonds to replace Washington? . . . Continued

. . . Continued 🔸#US 🇺🇸 gets closer to #Russia 🇷🇺 in order to fight #China 🇨🇳 at expense of 🇪🇺 Europe, including Türkiye 🇹🇷 🔸#Türkiye 🇹🇷 is an ally of Kiev 🇺🇦 & must be included in 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇪🇺 core European security architecture Link 🔗 Turkish language Hürriyet 🇹🇷 hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/ukrayna-… [END].

#French 🇫🇷🇪🇺 #intelligence community publishes my views on considering #Türkiye 🇹🇷 in European security architecture 👇 Ex-senior-intelligence & military-industrial expert Alain Rodier adds my views in 2025 public article for ‘Centre Francais Recherche sur les Renseignement’👇 cf2r.org/actualite/quel…

“The general sentiment in the EU is that Turkey is more important than ever on security cooperation. That ranges from military procurement to Ukraine, energy, critical infrastructure, you name it," said @samueljsdv.bsky.social. My latest for @turkeyrecap.bsky.social:

As doubts grow over US defense commitments to Ukraine and the EU, Ankara’s role in regional security is likely to expand due to its existing force and weapons production capacities. @diegocupolo.bsky.social reports with comments by @samueljsdv.bsky.social, Daria Isachenko and @yoruk.bsky.social.

#Türkiye’s 🇹🇷 most read (top 3) newspaper @Hurriyet translated & reprinted my Op-Ed into Turkish languagefor domestic 🇹🇷 audience ⤵️ 🇪🇺🇹🇷 Çok teşekkürler 🙏 Main points of Op-Ed 👇 🔸Trump 🇺🇸 #hypocrisy with Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 🔸#Nuclear France 🇫🇷🇪🇺 & German 🇩🇪🇪🇺#Eurobonds to replace Washington? . . . Continued

🎇 @Turkeyrecap.bsky.social Editor @DiegoCupolo.bsky.social kindly asked me to predict EU-Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 in 2025 🎇 5-points👇⤵️ 1️⃣ #EU-#Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relations in 2025 are fragile and very dependent on 🇺🇸 Donald Trump. . . . 👇

The fastest way for Europe to counter American threats is through 🇫🇷🇪🇺🇹🇷 Franco-Turkish rapprochement. The question is whether 🇹🇷 Ankara and 🇫🇷Paris are willing to sacrifice or will instead out-rat/out-bid each other to Washington. . . . (Continued)

As HRVP @kajakallas.bsky.social arrives in Ankara, it’s worth reading my 🇪🇺🇹🇷 prediction 2025👇 EU-Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 matters. Regardless of whether you’re secular or religious, or whether you like EU or Erdogan. Deteriorating relations would be a huge strategic, economic & security loss for both sides👇

If you’re unsure why 🇹🇷🇪🇺 EU-Türkiye relations are important? 🔟-point-list 👇 ———————— 1️⃣ Germany’s 🇩🇪🇪🇺 economy (& by extension Europe) depends on 🇹🇷 Türkiye, and vice versa. German 🇩🇪🇪🇺 supply-chains (not only trade) largely depend on China 🇨🇳, Poland 🇵🇱🇪🇺 and Türkiye . . . Continued

5️⃣ Let’s not forget that a Turkish economy without 🇩🇪🇪🇺 Germany is weak, and vice versa, Germany can’t build cars without Europe’s biggest back office: 🇹🇷 Türkiye. . . . 👇 [END].

4️⃣ Existing vulnerabilities will be exploited. 🇫🇷🇪🇺 #France’s geopolitical rivalry w 🇹🇷#Turkey in #Caucasus & #Africa & disagreements over 🇬🇷🇪🇺 Greek & 🇨🇾🇪🇺Cypriot maritime in East Med are targets of foreign superpowers to divide Europe. A crisis will exacerbate vulnerable 🇪🇺🇹🇷 Euro-Turkish ties. . . . 👇

3️⃣ Ankara 🇹🇷 and Berlin’s 🇩🇪🇪🇺 deep supply chains and economic relations will be seen with caution by 🇺🇸 Washington. That is because 🇺🇸 Trump, and Washington generally, see “the new great threat as 🇨🇳 #China”. It’s the opposite for Europe, which sees 🇷🇺 #Russia as the main threat. . . . 👇

2️⃣ #Trump 🇺🇸 doesn’t want to give power to regional initiatives like 🇪🇺 EU. He prefers instead to handle relations bilaterally to weaken his counterparts. He will also be deeply uninterested in a powerful 🇹🇷 Türkiye since 🇷🇺 Russia’s wings have been clipped and #Ankara 🇹🇷 is gaining influence. . . . 👇

🔟 Türkiye 🇹🇷 has limited firepower without EU 🇪🇺. EIB & EBRD are pillars for success when it comes to large scale investments in technology, energy, infrastructure etc. It’s important that Türkiye 🇹🇷 start considering EU 🇪🇺 needs to attract investment, sustainable supply chains & defence coop. END.

. . . 9️⃣ CRM & Central Asia In today’s “hunt for Minerals” Central Asia will benefit from investment and tech-transfer. Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 & Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 have signed MOUs with EU 🇪🇺. Türkiye 🇹🇷 is well placed for processing, construction & other activities, provided 🇪🇺🇹🇷relations improve. Continued . . .

. . . 7️⃣ Russia 🇷🇺 containment. Nordics, Baltics & East of Europe know that Türkiye 🇹🇷 is a key ally in containing Russia 🇷🇺 in Central Asia, Caucasus and elsewhere. At the same time, Ankara has a polemically (unbalanced) energy relationship with Moscow in nuclear ☢️ and gas ⛽️. Continued . . .

6️⃣ Security. Türkiye 🇹🇷 is NATO member and - in the era of new European 🇪🇺 defence - it’s crystal clear that Türkiye 🇹🇷 needs the spending power and technology of the EU 🇪🇺defence industry, while EU needs Ankara for ground experience & strategic partnership. Continued . . .

. . . Migration management is important, but the long term strategy cannot be to “outsource everything to Türkiye 🇹🇷”. Increased common foreign policy in region (de-escalating + border management) helps to avoid crisis and forced migration. Return of Gymlich is good, more is needed. Continued . . .

. . . 5️⃣ Türkiye’s Stability, migration & spillover Türkiye 🇹🇷 is close to “the action” & sometimes it also instigates it (while at times also a victim of others). Whatever the reasons, the stability of 🇹🇷 is of strategic interest economically, security, & politically for 🇪🇺 EU. Continued . . .

. . . If Türkiye 🇹🇷 commits to Republican values (currently not the case), there is a real chance for Turkic Islam to play a bigger role amongst European Muslims in year to come. This however requires careful, moderate and intelligent diplomacy in sensitive areas. Continued . . .

. . . 4️⃣ Moderate Islam ☪️ It’s been a taboo to talk about culture & creed for a long time. Reality is that it matters to billions and mobilises people in ways that other things don’t. Europeans have therefore come around to think about religious narratives in recent years. Continued . . .

. . . The big prize of Ankara’s energy dreams is to transit Turkmen 🇹🇲 , Iraqi 🇮🇶 or Iranian 🇮🇷 reserves one day. Each have problems & benefits, as well as realistic & unrealistic prospects. Benefits include diversifying away from Russia (cheaply), but w risk of overdependence on 🇹🇷. Continued . . .

. . . 3️⃣ Energy transit. Energy is the motor of economy & a primary geopolitical factor. Türkiye 🇹🇷 is a non-fossil fuel exporting country, but it lay strategically and serves as a transit for gas/oil. It aims towards becoming a hub, something which it competes for w Greece+others . . . continued

This is true, but it is only true if Europe only invests in Trans-Caspian. Instead, as it does, Europe should invest and diversify across many corridors, including Trans-Atlantic, Suez, IMEC/Israel, Africa, L. America and so forth. . . . Continued

. . . I’m essence, the more roads & shipping lanes the better for Europe. Having many connection points will protects each route/lane from disruption through diversification. On trans-Caspian, some critics say that Europe becomes dependent on 🇦🇿Azerbaijan & Caucasus instability Continued . . .

. . . 2️⃣ Land bridge to Asia & Connectivity. Logically, a land corridor running through Asia is crucial for a more autonomous & fully diversified multi-corridor trade and supply chain policy of the 🇪🇺 EU. Trans-Caspian corridor allows for an additional trade-route & less risk. Continued . . .

. . . Türkiye is a key back-office for building goods for Europe’s economic motor with assembly & on-time manufacturing at low prices within proximity. In turn, Europe is 🇹🇷Türkiye’s biggest market & Ankara depends on 🇪🇺EU for imports and exports. They are interdependent economically. Continued . . .

Will Donald Trump divide and rule a Europe that is too weak to stand on its own feet? My take in @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/30/e...

If you’re unsure why 🇹🇷🇪🇺 EU-Türkiye relations are important? 🔟-point-list 👇 ———————— 1️⃣ Germany’s 🇩🇪🇪🇺 economy (& by extension Europe) depends on 🇹🇷 Türkiye, and vice versa. German 🇩🇪🇪🇺 supply-chains (not only trade) largely depend on China 🇨🇳, Poland 🇵🇱🇪🇺 and Türkiye . . . Continued

Thirteen of Trump’s cabinet picks are billionaires helenlewis.substack.com/p/the-bluest...

Bilingualism is associated with a bigger brain. Similar to other cognitively demanding skills, it leads to dynamic subcortical structural adaptations which can be nonlinear, in line with expansion-renormalisation models of experience-dependent neuroplasticity. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

“Ümit Özdağ is someone who's been launching a very effective opposition ... So, my gut feeling is that, for Erdoğan, this is not a great time for Ümit Özdağ to be around and talking to people," @gonultol.bsky.social said. More on the latest opposition arrests in this week's @turkeyrecap.bsky.social

US President Donald Trump has said that if the EU doesn’t want to face crippling tariffs on trade, they can “buy our oil and gas.” But experts are pointing out that upcoming emissions rules may get in the way. 🔗 www.politico.eu/article/eu-r...

As HRVP @kajakallas.bsky.social arrives in Ankara, it’s worth reading my 🇪🇺🇹🇷 prediction 2025👇 EU-Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 matters. Regardless of whether you’re secular or religious, or whether you like EU or Erdogan. Deteriorating relations would be a huge strategic, economic & security loss for both sides👇

Clear trend lines in the region:

In preparation for this afternoon re-upping 3 insightful papers on #EU-#US relations, complementary in many ways: Can American abandonment help Europe by @nathalietocci.bsky.social @guntramwolff.bsky.social @aranchagonzalez.bsky.social @camillegrand.bsky.social @kpisarska.bsky.social y.social

Ma tribune dans @lemonde sur Trump et l’Europe (cette fois avec le lien) www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...