@gonultol.bsky.social talks with David Romano to unpack the collapse of the Kurdish forces in Syria. www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfQL...

Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan says Washington may be prepared to tolerate limited Iranian enrichment under strict limits, while Iran may accept tight caps and intrusive inspections resembling the 2015 model—if it gets meaningful sanctions relief. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

The Trump administration is trying to build a critical minerals trading bloc with allies—using tariffs to enforce minimum prices and push back against China’s grip on supply chains. It even hosted a summit in DC last week. Turkey wasn’t invited. 1/2

EU commissioner Marta Kos’s visit to Turkey—and her warm rhetoric about Turkey’s growing importance and the EU’s need to deepen ties—has had the intended effect. In Ankar, it’s being hailed as the start of a new chapter in Turkey–EU relations. But that reading is far too optimistic. 1/4

Trump’s fixation on the Kennedy Center echoes Erdogan’s obsession with the Atatürk Cultural Center (AKM) — a modernist landmark and a symbol of the secular republic founded by Atatürk. In 2008, Erdoğan shut the AKM under the pretext of “renovation” and what followed was a ++

📌Trump Orta Doğu'da Türkiye'yi dışlıyor mu? 📌Suriye'de Amerikan diplomasisi ile askeriyesi karşı karşıya mı geldi? 📌Trump İran'ı vurma emri verir mi? Gönül Tol @gonultol.bsky.social ile konuşuyoruz. Abone olmayı unutmayın! www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRJ-...

🧵 New piece: What Syria’s fast-moving map changes mean for Turkey’s PKK push—and the Turkey–Israel rivalry inside Syria. 1/ Post-Assad Syria posed Ankara two immediate problems: Kurdish autonomy along Turkey’s border + Israeli actions Ankara saw as undercutting its goals. (1)

Ankara’s double win: Kurds, Israel, and the new Syria mei.edu/publication/... By @gonultol.bsky.social #Syria #Turkey #Kurds #Israel

Good on Syria, and the balance between Turkish and Israeli influence.

🧵 New piece: What Syria’s fast-moving map changes mean for Turkey’s PKK push—and the Turkey–Israel rivalry inside Syria. 1/ Post-Assad Syria posed Ankara two immediate problems: Kurdish autonomy along Turkey’s border + Israeli actions Ankara saw as undercutting its goals. (1)

Since the United States began airdropping weapons to Syrian militias fighting ISIS in Kobane in 2014, American officials have repeatedly insisted that the partnership was “transactional and temporary.” Two actors never accepted that claim: Turkey and the Kurds. 1/4

New reports that Ankara is mediating between Hezbollah and Damascus have sparked a fresh debate: is Turkey emerging as Hezbollah’s new partner? Several experts—including me—weighed in. Read the full debate 👇 amwaj.media/en/debate/de...

There’s been growing debate over Turkey’s interest in joining the Saudi–Pakistan defense pact and its apparent alignment with Saudi Arabia in the Saudi–UAE rift over Yemen. My latest piece steps into that debate and addresses the core questions driving it. (1/6)

For the latest episode of Rethinking Democracy, I spoke with two leading Iran experts, Alex Vatanka and Nader Habibi, about what may lie ahead for Iran’s rulers—and for the millions of Iranians pushing back against them. You can listen to the conversation here. mei.edu/podcast/can-...

For the latest episode of Rethinking Democracy, I spoke with two leading Iran experts, Alex Vatanka and Nader Habibi, about what may lie ahead for Iran’s rulers—and for the millions of Iranians pushing back against them. You can listen to the conversation here. mei.edu/podcast/can-...

Turkey and Saudi Arabia just held their first high-level naval coordination talks in Ankara—a small but telling sign of how much their defense relationship has warmed up. The meeting points to a growing focus on working together at sea, especially in the Red Sea,++

Erdoğan spent years criticizing Obama administration for its slow response to July 15 coup attempt, even citing that delay as evidence of US involvement. It remains to be seen how fast he will condemn the capture of his close friend Maduro by his other good friend,Trump. So far, no word from Ankara.

2025 was a bleak year for democracy and freedoms in Turkey. With the arrest of Erdoğan’s top rival, Ekrem İmamoğlu, Ankara took a decisive step toward hollowing out the ballot box. Record numbers of arrests and detentions of Erdoğan’s critics pushed attacks on freedom of expression to new highs,++

Are welfare states bankrupting Europe—or saving its democracy? In ForeignPolicy, Omer Taspinar argues that strong welfare states aren’t the source of Europe’s democratic crisis—they’re one of the few tools left to stop populism and authoritarianism. foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/12/e...

Ömer Taşpınar yazdı: Refah devleti kapitalizmi kurtardı, şimdi de Batı demokrasisini kurtarabilir

Are welfare states bankrupting Europe—or saving its democracy? In ForeignPolicy, Omer Taspinar argues that strong welfare states aren’t the source of Europe’s democratic crisis—they’re one of the few tools left to stop populism and authoritarianism. foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/12/e...

As the Syrian President meets with President Trump today, one of the most consequential issues for Syria’s future stability is the ongoing negotiation between Damascus and the Syrian Kurds. In last week’s MEI podcast, I argued that a sustainable solution requires all sides to ++

"Erdoğan Forever?" with @gonultol.bsky.social, Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj. [3/5] www.mei.edu/multimedia/p...

If you are at all interested in Turkey, I urge you to listen to this lengthy conversation with @gonultol.bsky.social It is probably the best thing I have heard on Turkey in at least the past six months.

@gonultol.bsky.social had a fantastic one-two punch in terms of public discussions of Turkey this week. Here is her NYT piece: "Mr. Erdogan will find it difficult to consolidate his rule — no matter how much cover he gets from the West." www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/o...

A good reminder from @gonultol.bsky.social that you can write about the West's willingness to accommodate Erdogan without actually endorsing the West's willingness to accommodate Erdogan www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/o...

Another grim day for the rule of law in Turkey. Journalists are now being summoned for questioning simply for sharing posts in support of Erdoğan’s jailed rival, Ekrem İmamoğlu. I’m sharing my New York Times piece, which argues that the West’s eagerness to do business with Erdoğan—

This is not just a piece about #Turkey, but what happens when capitals embrace an autocrat b/c 1) they don't believe the country he rules can ever be true democracy 2) the autocrat advances their agenda @gonultol.bsky.social on how #Erdogan rules at home from abroad www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/o...

Israel’s democracy was under strain long before Oct 7—but the war has pushed it to the brink. In the latest Rethinking Democracy, I talk with @dahliasc, one of the sharpest, most insightful analysts of Israeli politics, about how wartime politics are reshaping power, protest,++

Thrilled to share that I’ve just written the first sentence of my second book 😊 This one looks beyond Turkey to the broader Middle East—and explores how Trump’s policies are reshaping the region. It’ll be a challenge,blending archival digging with fast-moving current politics—but I’m excited for it.

🇹🇷 Turkey Last Week 1️⃣ PKK withdrawal: The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) announced it is pulling out of Turkey as part of a disarmament process coordinated with Ankara, urging the government to take steps allowing its reintegration into political life. 2️⃣ Fresh arrest order for İmamoğlu: (1/7)

"The Future of Turkey's Defense Sector" with @gonultol.bsky.social, Iulia-Sabina Joja, @jasonhcampbell.bsky.social and Missy Ryan. [4/5]

If you missed yesterday’s event with my colleagues and The Atlantic’s Missy Ryan on the future of Turkey’s defense sector, you can watch it here. www.youtube.com/watch?v=cS7-...

#TurkeyLastWeek 1️⃣ Parliament Opens, Opposition Boycotts Turkey kicked off a new legislative year on Wednesday, but the CHP boycotted the session, which featured a speech by President Erdoğan. 2️⃣ Fighter Jet Engine Debate Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s claim that U.S. sanctions are ++

Sunday extras: "Can Turkey and Israel Find Common Ground in Syria?" with Kenneth Pollack, @gonultol.bsky.social and @natansachs.bsky.social . [1/5]

A Bloomberg report from today confirmed this 👇

#TurkeyLastWeek 1.Ankara joins the list of opposition-run municipalities under judicial pressure: 13 detained in a corruption probe tied to city concerts. 2.CHP re-elected Özgür Çelik as Istanbul provincial head after a court briefly removed him over alleged irregularities++

#TurkeyLastWeek 1.Ankara joins the list of opposition-run municipalities under judicial pressure: 13 detained in a corruption probe tied to city concerts. 2.CHP re-elected Özgür Çelik as Istanbul provincial head after a court briefly removed him over alleged irregularities++

Great thread

As usual, great analysis by @gonultol.bsky.social. My standard response to those asking “Is Turkey pivoting to the West” has always been: No. It’s called hedging. Or strategic autonomy. Read TR media. Erdoğan consistently positions Turkey as a mediator. It conveniently means you don’t take sides

Trump’s joint press conference with Erdogan today was filled with softball questions that surely pleased the Turkish side. Yet there were four remarks Ankara likely wished he hadn’t made on camera: “Turkey had sentenced Pastor Brunson to 35 years in jail, I called Erdogan and he released him.”+++

Today’s Trump–Erdoğan meeting underscored how dependent Turkey remains on the West for its defense needs, and on the East for its energy needs. Despite claims at home and abroad that Ankara’s expanding indigenous defense sector makes it ‘strategically autonomous,’++

Once hailed as a rare democracy in the Middle East, Lebanon has now slipped into the ranks of closed autocracies, according to a 2025 democracy index report. Decades of corruption, sectarian rule, and foreign meddling have left the country reeling — and the past year brought++

Once hailed as a rare democracy in the Middle East, Lebanon has now slipped into the ranks of closed autocracies, according to a 2025 democracy index report. Decades of corruption, sectarian rule, and foreign meddling have left the country reeling — and the past year brought++

"Markets, Mayors, and Crackdowns: Erdoğan’s High-Stakes Gamble" with @sedademiralp.bsky.social, @selvademiralp.com and @gonultol.bsky.social. [3/5]

Great @turkeyrecap.bsky.social episode with @gonultol.bsky.social on Turkish democracy, Syria, PKK www.turkeyrecap.com/p/turkeys-de...

📌Amerika'nın Orta Doğu politikası ne? 📌Türkiye-İsrail geriliminde Amerika'nın tavrı ne olur? Orta Doğu Enstitüsü Türkiye Direktörü Gönül Tol ile konuştuk. Abone olmayı unutmayın! www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACGn...

📌Amerika'nın Orta Doğu politikası ne? 📌Trump Türkiye-İsrail gerilimi konusunda bir şey yapacak mı? Orta Doğu Enstitüsü Türkiye Direktörü Gönül Tol @gonultol.bsky.social ile konuşuyoruz. ⏰20.30'da Abone olmayı unutmayın! www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACGn...

Turkey’s main opposition, the CHP, is facing its toughest test yet: mass arrests, sham court rulings, and the ouster of key leaders. With trials looming that could replace CHP leadership with government loyalists, the party warns of a legal ‘coup.’ +++

My new piece in @ForeignPolicy : Erdoğan once hoped post-Assad Syria would ease his domestic & foreign headaches. Instead, it’s created bigger ones—chief among them Israel. To counter, he’s falling back on old tools: threats of military action in Syria or reliance on Russia.++