“Erdogan [controls] media, security services and every state bureaucracy, [yet his rule shows] not a collapse, but a slow erosion, from both regime fatigue and his failure to recover the economy.” My comments, along with @gonultol.bsky.social and Henri Barkey for al Hurra alhurra.com/en/21387

🎙️Sunday extras! Podcasts only edition: "Will the PKK Really Disarm?" with Aliza Marcus and @gonultol.bsky.social. [1/5]

"Turkey's outsize influence in Somalia fuels corruption and autocracy, says MEI's @gonultol.bsky.social " hosted by @amberinzaman.bsky.social. [2/5]

"Middle Eastern Rivalry in the Horn of Africa" with @mmabrouk.bsky.social, @gonultol.bsky.social, Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj. [3/5]

In 2025, jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan made a historic call for the group to disarm and dissolve, raising hopes of ending a 40-year conflict that has shaped Turkey and the wider region. Months later, the PKK symbolically laid down arms in what many viewed as a breakthrough moment for the ++

In 2025, jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan made a historic call for the group to disarm and dissolve, raising hopes of ending a 40-year conflict that has shaped Turkey and the wider region. Months later, the PKK symbolically laid down arms in what many viewed as a breakthrough moment for the ++

Syria is in the midst of a fragile transition. Many observers see positive momentum but the risks remain serious: regional spillover, deep humanitarian needs, funding shortfalls, Israeli strikes, sectarian tensions, stalled political tracks, and continued reports of abuses by multiple actors.++

🗞️ Sunday extras: "The Impact of the Iran War on Turkey" with @serhatg.bsky.social, @jasonhcampbell.bsky.social and @gonultol.bsky.social . [1/5]

My latest on Turkey and the Iran war: The war has posed significant immediate challenges for Turkey but Turkish officials think that Ankara could reap benefits from the war in the long term: mei.edu/publication/...

My latest on Turkey and the Iran war: The war has posed significant immediate challenges for Turkey but Turkish officials think that Ankara could reap benefits from the war in the long term: mei.edu/publication/...

When people who haven’t read the book argue with the person who wrote it…

Just weeks before Trump’s war began, Iran was in the midst of a powerful wave of anti-regime protests spreading across the country. But once the war started, that momentum largely came to a halt. To unpack what this war means for Iran’s democracy movement,++

📌"Sıra Türkiye'de" ne demek? 📌Trump, Hürmüz'ü işgal eder mi? 📌Körfez ülkeleri İran savaşına nasıl bakıyor? Siyaset Bilimci Gönül Tol @gonultol.bsky.social ve Gazeteci Sarkis Kassarjian @sarkiska.bsky.social ile konuştuk. Abone olmayı unutmayın! www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPOL...

Israel’s campaign in Lebanon isn’t getting enough attention in the West but the country is nearing a breaking point.On my podcast, Lebanese MP Mark Daou and I unpack what Iran war and Israeli operations in Lebanon mean for the country. You can watch here www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vmxl...

Israel’s campaign in Lebanon isn’t getting enough attention in the West but the country is nearing a breaking point.On my podcast, Lebanese MP Mark Daou and I unpack what Iran war and Israeli operations in Lebanon mean for the country. You can watch here www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vmxl...

In the latest episode of Rethinking Democracy, I speak with Allan Hassaniyan, author of a book on Iranian Kurds. We discuss the history of Kurdish struggle in Iran, where Kurds stand within the broader Iranian opposition, their ties with Israel and the US, and how Kurdish leaders are responding to++

Trump’s suggestion that they rise up against the regime. Listen here www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sgw...

In the latest episode of Rethinking Democracy, I speak with Allan Hassaniyan, author of a book on Iranian Kurds. We discuss the history of Kurdish struggle in Iran, where Kurds stand within the broader Iranian opposition, their ties with Israel and the US, and how Kurdish leaders are responding to++

🗞️ Sunday extras: "Can Turkey Stay Out of the Iran War?" with @gonultol.bsky.social, Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj. [1/5]

Good interview @gonultol.bsky.social on Turkey and the Iran War open.spotify.com/episode/0ZNd...

Turkey news recapped with comments by @gonultol.bsky.social: 1. Airspace violated again, NATO boosts defenses 2. Calculations on Kurdish ground forces 3. Istanbul municipality trial underway 4. Domestic and diplomatic wraps 5. Sánchez sparks Turkey-Spain meme flood

My latest piece on Turkey and the Iran war: 1️⃣ NATO intercepted a second Iranian missile that entered Turkish airspace. Ankara warned Tehran, while Iranian officials denied responsibility and said they respect Turkish sovereignty. But Iran’s so-called “mosaic defense” strategy, 1/4

Valuable thread from @gonultol.bsky.social

My latest piece on Turkey and the Iran war: 1️⃣ NATO intercepted a second Iranian missile that entered Turkish airspace. Ankara warned Tehran, while Iranian officials denied responsibility and said they respect Turkish sovereignty. But Iran’s so-called “mosaic defense” strategy, 1/4

🗞️ Sunday extras: "After Rojava: What’s Next for the Kurds?" with David Romano and @gonultol.bsky.social . [1/5]

@gonultol.bsky.social talks with David Romano to unpack the collapse of the Kurdish forces in Syria. www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfQL...

Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan says Washington may be prepared to tolerate limited Iranian enrichment under strict limits, while Iran may accept tight caps and intrusive inspections resembling the 2015 model—if it gets meaningful sanctions relief. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

The Trump administration is trying to build a critical minerals trading bloc with allies—using tariffs to enforce minimum prices and push back against China’s grip on supply chains. It even hosted a summit in DC last week. Turkey wasn’t invited. 1/2

EU commissioner Marta Kos’s visit to Turkey—and her warm rhetoric about Turkey’s growing importance and the EU’s need to deepen ties—has had the intended effect. In Ankar, it’s being hailed as the start of a new chapter in Turkey–EU relations. But that reading is far too optimistic. 1/4

Trump’s fixation on the Kennedy Center echoes Erdogan’s obsession with the Atatürk Cultural Center (AKM) — a modernist landmark and a symbol of the secular republic founded by Atatürk. In 2008, Erdoğan shut the AKM under the pretext of “renovation” and what followed was a ++

📌Trump Orta Doğu'da Türkiye'yi dışlıyor mu? 📌Suriye'de Amerikan diplomasisi ile askeriyesi karşı karşıya mı geldi? 📌Trump İran'ı vurma emri verir mi? Gönül Tol @gonultol.bsky.social ile konuşuyoruz. Abone olmayı unutmayın! www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRJ-...

🧵 New piece: What Syria’s fast-moving map changes mean for Turkey’s PKK push—and the Turkey–Israel rivalry inside Syria. 1/ Post-Assad Syria posed Ankara two immediate problems: Kurdish autonomy along Turkey’s border + Israeli actions Ankara saw as undercutting its goals. (1)

Ankara’s double win: Kurds, Israel, and the new Syria mei.edu/publication/... By @gonultol.bsky.social #Syria #Turkey #Kurds #Israel

Good on Syria, and the balance between Turkish and Israeli influence.

🧵 New piece: What Syria’s fast-moving map changes mean for Turkey’s PKK push—and the Turkey–Israel rivalry inside Syria. 1/ Post-Assad Syria posed Ankara two immediate problems: Kurdish autonomy along Turkey’s border + Israeli actions Ankara saw as undercutting its goals. (1)

Since the United States began airdropping weapons to Syrian militias fighting ISIS in Kobane in 2014, American officials have repeatedly insisted that the partnership was “transactional and temporary.” Two actors never accepted that claim: Turkey and the Kurds. 1/4

New reports that Ankara is mediating between Hezbollah and Damascus have sparked a fresh debate: is Turkey emerging as Hezbollah’s new partner? Several experts—including me—weighed in. Read the full debate 👇 amwaj.media/en/debate/de...

There’s been growing debate over Turkey’s interest in joining the Saudi–Pakistan defense pact and its apparent alignment with Saudi Arabia in the Saudi–UAE rift over Yemen. My latest piece steps into that debate and addresses the core questions driving it. (1/6)

For the latest episode of Rethinking Democracy, I spoke with two leading Iran experts, Alex Vatanka and Nader Habibi, about what may lie ahead for Iran’s rulers—and for the millions of Iranians pushing back against them. You can listen to the conversation here. mei.edu/podcast/can-...

For the latest episode of Rethinking Democracy, I spoke with two leading Iran experts, Alex Vatanka and Nader Habibi, about what may lie ahead for Iran’s rulers—and for the millions of Iranians pushing back against them. You can listen to the conversation here. mei.edu/podcast/can-...

Turkey and Saudi Arabia just held their first high-level naval coordination talks in Ankara—a small but telling sign of how much their defense relationship has warmed up. The meeting points to a growing focus on working together at sea, especially in the Red Sea,++

Erdoğan spent years criticizing Obama administration for its slow response to July 15 coup attempt, even citing that delay as evidence of US involvement. It remains to be seen how fast he will condemn the capture of his close friend Maduro by his other good friend,Trump. So far, no word from Ankara.

2025 was a bleak year for democracy and freedoms in Turkey. With the arrest of Erdoğan’s top rival, Ekrem İmamoğlu, Ankara took a decisive step toward hollowing out the ballot box. Record numbers of arrests and detentions of Erdoğan’s critics pushed attacks on freedom of expression to new highs,++

Are welfare states bankrupting Europe—or saving its democracy? In ForeignPolicy, Omer Taspinar argues that strong welfare states aren’t the source of Europe’s democratic crisis—they’re one of the few tools left to stop populism and authoritarianism. foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/12/e...

Ömer Taşpınar yazdı: Refah devleti kapitalizmi kurtardı, şimdi de Batı demokrasisini kurtarabilir

Are welfare states bankrupting Europe—or saving its democracy? In ForeignPolicy, Omer Taspinar argues that strong welfare states aren’t the source of Europe’s democratic crisis—they’re one of the few tools left to stop populism and authoritarianism. foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/12/e...

As the Syrian President meets with President Trump today, one of the most consequential issues for Syria’s future stability is the ongoing negotiation between Damascus and the Syrian Kurds. In last week’s MEI podcast, I argued that a sustainable solution requires all sides to ++

"Erdoğan Forever?" with @gonultol.bsky.social, Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj. [3/5] www.mei.edu/multimedia/p...

If you are at all interested in Turkey, I urge you to listen to this lengthy conversation with @gonultol.bsky.social It is probably the best thing I have heard on Turkey in at least the past six months.