Great thread

As usual, great analysis by @gonultol.bsky.social. My standard response to those asking “Is Turkey pivoting to the West” has always been: No. It’s called hedging. Or strategic autonomy. Read TR media. Erdoğan consistently positions Turkey as a mediator. It conveniently means you don’t take sides

Trump’s joint press conference with Erdogan today was filled with softball questions that surely pleased the Turkish side. Yet there were four remarks Ankara likely wished he hadn’t made on camera: “Turkey had sentenced Pastor Brunson to 35 years in jail, I called Erdogan and he released him.”+++

Today’s Trump–Erdoğan meeting underscored how dependent Turkey remains on the West for its defense needs, and on the East for its energy needs. Despite claims at home and abroad that Ankara’s expanding indigenous defense sector makes it ‘strategically autonomous,’++

Once hailed as a rare democracy in the Middle East, Lebanon has now slipped into the ranks of closed autocracies, according to a 2025 democracy index report. Decades of corruption, sectarian rule, and foreign meddling have left the country reeling — and the past year brought++

Once hailed as a rare democracy in the Middle East, Lebanon has now slipped into the ranks of closed autocracies, according to a 2025 democracy index report. Decades of corruption, sectarian rule, and foreign meddling have left the country reeling — and the past year brought++

"Markets, Mayors, and Crackdowns: Erdoğan’s High-Stakes Gamble" with @sedademiralp.bsky.social, @selvademiralp.com and @gonultol.bsky.social. [3/5]

Great @turkeyrecap.bsky.social episode with @gonultol.bsky.social on Turkish democracy, Syria, PKK www.turkeyrecap.com/p/turkeys-de...

📌Amerika'nın Orta Doğu politikası ne? 📌Türkiye-İsrail geriliminde Amerika'nın tavrı ne olur? Orta Doğu Enstitüsü Türkiye Direktörü Gönül Tol ile konuştuk. Abone olmayı unutmayın! www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACGn...

📌Amerika'nın Orta Doğu politikası ne? 📌Trump Türkiye-İsrail gerilimi konusunda bir şey yapacak mı? Orta Doğu Enstitüsü Türkiye Direktörü Gönül Tol @gonultol.bsky.social ile konuşuyoruz. ⏰20.30'da Abone olmayı unutmayın! www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACGn...

Turkey’s main opposition, the CHP, is facing its toughest test yet: mass arrests, sham court rulings, and the ouster of key leaders. With trials looming that could replace CHP leadership with government loyalists, the party warns of a legal ‘coup.’ +++

My new piece in @ForeignPolicy : Erdoğan once hoped post-Assad Syria would ease his domestic & foreign headaches. Instead, it’s created bigger ones—chief among them Israel. To counter, he’s falling back on old tools: threats of military action in Syria or reliance on Russia.++

Turkey today where the main opposition is locked away and getting arrested is becoming "the easiest thing", said @gonultol.bsky.social. “You just have to like a tweet or a Facebook post criticising Erdogan." www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

My new piece in @ForeignPolicy : Erdoğan once hoped post-Assad Syria would ease his domestic & foreign headaches. Instead, it’s created bigger ones—chief among them Israel. To counter, he’s falling back on old tools: threats of military action in Syria or reliance on Russia.++

A lot is happening in Turkey right now. @gonultol.bsky.social breaks down the three major developments on the @turkeyrecap.bsky.social podcast:

As the crackdown on the opposition deepens, the government is ramping up detentions—targeting people likely for nothing more than tweets criticizing the repression. Here are just a few:

Excellent discussion of what's going on behind the news in Turkey, @diegocupolo.bsky.social interviews @gonultol.bsky.social for @turkeyrecap.bsky.social Highly recommended www.turkeyrecap.com/p/turkeys-de...

Worth🎙️listening/watching: @gonultol.bsky.social @diegocupolo.bsky.social @turkeyrecap.bsky.social 🇹🇷's newest democratic backsliding, Erdoğan's tactics to divide the opposition, the CHP case, elections, the role of kurdish peace process #TürkiyeEU #EurSky www.turkeyrecap.com/p/turkeys-de...

Worth tuning in, @gonultol.bsky.social is doing great today.

In front of main opposition CHP’s Istanbul HQ, police tear-gassed opposition MPs resisting the government’s move to replace the party’s elected officials with hand-picked trustees. Erdoğan is lifting a page from Putin’s playbook—ensuring the opposition is obedient and his hold on power is permanent.

A Turkish court just removed Turkish main opposition CHP’s Istanbul head for ‘irregularities’—Erdoğan’s latest judicial strike on the opposition. Next up: a September ruling that could unseat CHP leader Özel & void the 2023 congress. Textbook autocratic legalism in action.

Since Öcalan’s call on the PKK to lay down arms, the parliamentary commission set up in Turkey to oversee disarmament has taken no concrete steps, and the process shows no visible progress. More than a month without any contact with Öcalan has fueled talk of deadlock. ++

Random thought: I absolutely hate everything about this century.

📰Sunday extras: "The Regional and Domestic Elements of Erdoğan's Grand Strategy" with @gonultol.bsky.social and Alistair Taylor. [1/5]

Extremely useful and extensive discussion with @gonultol.bsky.social on Turkey, the Kurds, the US, and more open.spotify.com/episode/30hn...

Turkey’s Defense Ministry says the Syrian government has officially requested support to boost its military capacity and fight terrorist groups, including ISIS. In response, Ankara is moving to provide training, advisory, and technical assistance. t24.com.tr/haber/msb-su...

Amid Israel’s latest strikes on Syria, Turkey’s Defense Ministry declared, “If requested, we’ll support Syria’s defense and anti-terror efforts.” Some took this as Ankara inching toward military confrontation with Israel. I’m resurfacing my piece to push back:

The turmoil in Syria’s Suwayda province is likely to deepen the rift between Damascus and the Kurds. For the Kurds, it’s proof that Damascus can’t guarantee security, justifying their own armed forces. For Damascus, it’s a warning that even limited autonomy, like the Druze enjoy in the south, risks+

In what many called a “historic speech,” Erdogan urged full support for the Kurdish disarmament process, marked by the PKK’s symbolic handover of weapons — a move he claimed turned a new page for Turkey. He declared the AKP, nationalist MHP, and pro-Kurdish DEM party as partners in this effort.++

Lisel @liselhintz.bsky.social always has something brilliant to say about Turkey. Dont miss it 👇

🇹🇷 Turkey Last Week: •PKK set to disarm after Öcalan orders group’s dissolution. Weapons handover planned in Sulaymaniyah. •Öcalan says the process has “entered a new phase.” •Istanbul Mayor İmamoğlu indicted over diploma case; faces 8 yrs 9 mos jail + political ban ++

🇹🇷 Turkey Last Week: •PKK set to disarm after Öcalan orders group’s dissolution. Weapons handover planned in Sulaymaniyah. •Öcalan says the process has “entered a new phase.” •Istanbul Mayor İmamoğlu indicted over diploma case; faces 8 yrs 9 mos jail + political ban ++

I wrote this piece for Foreign Affairs soon after Erdoğan jailed his top rival İmamoğlu. I argued that this blatant act of repression marked a major shift toward Russian-style autocracy in Turkey. Since then, the crackdown and imprisonment of++ www.foreignaffairs.com/turkey/turke...

With @harunercan.bsky.social, we argued the AKP initially didn't risk public protest by arresting CHP mayors. We argued permissive prejudice allowed such arrests against pro-Kurdish mayors. We suggested after 2023 elex, CHP might face tactics honed against Kurds. www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...

I wrote this piece for Foreign Affairs soon after Erdoğan jailed his top rival İmamoğlu. I argued that this blatant act of repression marked a major shift toward Russian-style autocracy in Turkey. Since then, the crackdown and imprisonment of++ www.foreignaffairs.com/turkey/turke...

Price hikes are slowing, but food costs are cherry high. @emilyricejohnson.bsky.social has the latest Turkey economy news. Inside this week's issue: 1. Inflation dips further in July 2. Summer hike for natural gas prices 3. FDI: Cash flow monitor 4. This week’s stat round-up

Turkey’s arrest spree is so relentless, keeping up with domestic politics these days feels more like reading the daily court docket. Today alone, dozens of opposition mayors and their staff were arrested, a university student was detained for tearing up his diploma in protest of the++

I’m an avid reader of Marc Lynch, so pre-ordering his book on Amazon was a [email protected]

Random thought: I reject the idea that Israel is now the region’s hegemon. Even the U.S. never fully achieved hegemony in the Middle East after the Cold War, because true hegemony demands more than sheer power—it requires legitimacy and unifying ideas that can underpin a consensual order.

In Turkey, we're watching, over the past few months, probably the most dramatic degradation of democracy and civil liberties that we've seen since the purges directly after the attempted coup attempt in 2016. It deserves more attention than it is getting.

Though many see Turkey and Russia as rivals in Africa, this map tells another story: Ankara and Moscow are forging defense ties across the continent. In Niger, Erdogan’s so-called ‘shadow army,’ SADAT, has reportedly placed mercenaries under Russian advisers. Meanwhile, Wagner-linked sources claim+

Podcast from MEI with Radwan Ziadeh and me discussing Syria’s transition. Thanks to @gonultol.bsky.social for hosting. www.mei.edu/multimedia/p...

"Deal or Deception: The Kurdish Card in Erdogan’s New Game" wwith @ceylanakca.bsky.social, @muratsomer.bsky.social and @gonultol.bsky.social . [4/5]

In other words, after dropping 420,000 pounds of bombs, Trump is still miles behind what Obama accomplished in 2015 without firing a single shot.

🇹🇷 Turkey Last Week — June 16–22 1. Baykar-Leonardo UAV Deal Draws Fire Turkey’s Baykar, owned by Erdoğan’s son-in-law, launched a joint UAV venture with Italy’s Leonardo. The deal raised eyebrows inside Turkey, given Leonardo’s deep defense ties with Israel—at a time when anti-Israel sentiment

📰Sunday extras: "Caught in the crossfire: How the Iran-Israel war undermines Erdoğan’s agenda" by @gonultol.bsky.social. [1/5]

Turkey detains prominent journalist for allegedly threatening Erdogan reut.rs/4eiGmdo

Axios reports Erdoğan proposed hosting U.S.-Iran talks in Istanbul. Trump agreed,— and was even willing to meet President Pezeshkian himself. But with Khamenei in hiding over assassination fears and unreachable, Iran told Turkey they lacked his sign-off. Ankara then called off the meeting.

In my latest piece, I unpack why Ankara is urgently pushing for an end to the Israel-Iran war — and why it’s especially anxious to keep the U.S. out of it. 🚩Among the most immediate risks is the possibility of Turkey becoming a target for Iranian retaliation, particularly because of the NATO 1/5

Caught in the crossfire: How the Iran-Israel war undermines Erdoğan’s agenda @gonultol.bsky.social www.mei.edu/publications...