@brookings.edu - @univofmaryland.bsky.social poll shows most Americans (56%) feel the Iran War has been mostly negative. However, partisan divide exists, with self-identified Republicans showing greater approval than self-identified Democrats and Independents. www.brookings.edu/interactive/...

At what point could this war render the Strait of Hormuz obsolete? New piece in @financialtimes.com reports Gulf states in talks to buy oil pipelines to bypass Hormuz. www.ft.com/content/2842...

Trump ‘shouted and cursed Netanyahu over threat to resume Beirut bombing’

The Netanyahu-Trump call is audience costs in real time. Netanyahu threatened Hizbollah strikes, Trump said stop, Israel stood down — and Bibi’s opponents are already calling it "humiliating" & a loss of sovereignty. @financialtimes.com - www.ft.com/content/9938...

شایعه استعفای رئیس جمهور پزشکیان به دلیل نفوذ #سپاه_پاسداران؛ رسانه‌ها سکوت کرده‌اند. ۱. درست است؟ ۲. انتخابات جدید؟ سرپرست ریاست جمهوری؟

Great discussion on @warontherocks.bsky.social “The Insider” podcast on Putin’s continuing to fight despite the odds against any sort of recognizable victory (shorturl.at/dHA4w). Putin isn’t just fighting to stay in power, but to avoid nasty ex post fate (e.g.,imprisonment, exile, or execution).

Nice scoop by Amichai Stein @thejerusalempost.bsky.social. Suggests a deal is not imminent, contrary to messaging from the White House in reporting from @axios.com.

Kevin Hassett predicted that it will be 1-2 months before oil shipments resume and return to normal in the Strait of Hormuz. abcnews.com/Politics/whi...

Policy-makers’ use of sanctions adheres to Maslow’s law of the instrument. Problem: some targets benefit from them, including #Iran. *. Take the case of Rhodesia - economic pain didn’t translate into political concessions. Instead, they served as a source of protection for the Smith government.

The emerging U.S.-#Iran MOU represents a defeat for #Israel, and Netanyahu in particular. Likely to see more of his team passing blame for failure to achieve major objectives (e.g.,regime change) to Trump. (See piece by Caspit in @almonitor.bsky.social- www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...).

Interesting piece by @valinasr.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com on #Iran’s hesitance to sign the MOU. Trump & the US face an assurance dilemma. The lack of trust (coupled w/regime’s own “paranoid style”) hinder signing of MOU and extension of ceasefire. www.ft.com/content/6ccf...

@wsj.com Scoop: “The United Arab Emirates carried out dozens of airstrikes against Iran beginning in the early days of the war, a deeper involvement than was previously known.”

Hardline outfits in #Iran are reporting that while the exact text of an MOU with the US has not been agreed upon, @pezeshkian.bsky.social’s recent remarks on Pakistani mediation suggest the two sides are close to an agreement.

Trump & his aides repeatedly said a deal was close before, then walked it back. Leadership of #Iran & US have not signed the MOU to extend ceasefire & start negotiations. Teams have agreed to: *. No tolls, harassment in the Strait, & #Iran agrees to clear mines;

Terrific piece in @bjpols.bsky.social ( @jkertzer.bsky.social,et.al) on elite misperception of public’s foreign policy preferences. Elites incorrectly stereotype U.S. voters as more isolationist than they are. How much does public opinion affect fp? Open Access: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Today is the Day of Arafah. I would like to wish everyone who practices, “Eid Mubarak.”

Azar Nafisi, in stating Netanyahu does not represent Israelis, made the very mistake about Netanyahu that Benny Gantz warned against in his @nytopinion.nytimes.com piece, “What the World Gets Wrong About Israel” (nytimes.com/2025/09/24/o...):

#Iran has reportedly agreed to give up its stockpile of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU). Some will point out that #Iran could simply enrich more in the future; it also has enough plutonium at Bushehr for another (est) 200 bombs. @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/05/23/w...

Trump ( @axios.com) reportedly wants KSA, #Pakistan, & #Qatar to sign the Abraham Accords (www.axios.com/2026/05/24/t...). A couple of issues: 1). Even if this were a possibility, each of these countries would likely want individual, bilateral deals with #Israel.

So much for, “It takes a Nixon (Trump) to go to China (#Iran).” Contrary to CW, Hawks that become peacemakers often need to rely on the support of moderate doves to get their packages through. Case in point: Menachem Begin Labor to pass Egypt peace deal. @johnphudson.bsky.social, shorturl.at/PpaOw

Iran war could add billions of dollars in interest payments to US debt ft.trib.al/qp5h83H

#Iran was unable to deter Israel and the US from attacking it in 6/2025 or 2/2026. However, it has established intra-war deterrence by striking out at Gulf states, including Qatar and Oman, its closest regional partners. Interesting piece by Amanda Taub @nytimes.com. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/w...

“If #Hezbollah behaves well, #Israel will behave well.” The hardest part of the MOU to implement, as reported by @barakravid.bsky.social: ending the war between #Israel & #Hezbollah.

Esmail Bagheai, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, said that the US & #Iran were moving closer to “finalizing a memorandum of understanding,” according to @presstv.bsky.social: www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/...

Even IF Congress rejects giving Trump war authority in an #Iran war vote (& Trump vetoes it), Tehran could still infer this means the U.S. lacks resolve to continue pursuing the conflict. @axios.com, @andrewsolender.bsky.social & Santaliz. www.axios.com/2026/05/20/t...

As U.S. depletes its inventory of advanced missile-defense interceptors on behalf of #Israel, will this reduce its leverage over other allies in the Middle East? Will these states look to other suppliers? Scoop by @johnphudson.bsky.social - shorturl.at/vamZ3

Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since his election as Supreme Leader. Speculation: what if the younger Khamenei succumbed to his injuries? Who would take over? Would it matter since the Pasdaran would be the preeminent veto player? www.ft.com/content/4dfd...

The fact that the US & Israel were planning to install Ahmadinejad demonstrates the internal contradictions of the regime. On the one hand, it is deeply resilient in the face of challenges, including attempts at decapitation. On the other, it is also deeply compromised. #IranWar‌

Israel & US attempted to pursue regime change in #Iran by installing former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad In office. After strike on his home, even Ahmadinejad felt the plan was infeasible. @nytimes.com. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/u...

It is hard to imagine American leaders suffering audience costs for backing down in crises given the difficulties in removing Presidents from office. The public’s muted reaction to Trump’s propensity to back down from public threats..

“I don’t think it’s necessary [to get the uranium], except from a public relations standpoint,” the president said. “I think it’s important for the fake news that we get it.” - Trump to Sean Hannity @foxnews.com.web.brid.gy. Circa 2015, #Iran had far less HEU than post-2018. So, what was this for?

Interesting piece by Swanson & Sharp @foreignaffairs.com. Beyond bragging rights, a serious nuclear deal can’t look like the JCPOA *. B/c of the technological advancements #Iran has made since @realDonaldTrump left the agreement in 2018; *. #Iran has enough plutonium for (est) 200 bombs.

Well-informed Faisal Abbas: “..I would tend to believe recent media reports, albeit unconfirmed by official Saudi sources yet, that the Kingdom had silently struck back against Iran & pro-Tehran militias targets in Iraq in recent weeks.” @arabnews.bsky.social. www.arabnews.com/node/2643818

@joycekaram.bsky.social @almonitor.bsky.social shows why China rejected @realDonaldTrump’s request for help with reaching an #Iran deal. *Any deal will be purely bilateral *Reaching a deal will be harder b/c U.S. lacks pressure & reassurances offered by P5+1. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

Part of the reason the #JCPOA worked was b/c it had the support of the EU+3, along with Russia & China. It was also textbook (successful) coercive diplomacy. China is not interested in helping. Any deal that is reached will be bilateral between the U.S. & #Iran.

Is #Fatah preparing a patrimonial succession? @nerizilber.bsky.social & Malaika Tapper report on anticipated election of Abbas’s son to Fatah Central Committee. *Implications for PA governance, competition w/Hamas? *Interaction w/next Israeli gov’t? @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/6bf3...

Mike Singh @washinstitute.bsky.social argues for agreement for opening Strait of #Hormuz in exchange for ending blockade. Will make it easier to pursue agreements on stockpile, missiles & proxies. *. Ignores what we know about effective coercive diplomacy. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analy....

Saudi Arabia is exploring a non-aggression pact with #Iran. *. Looking to Helsinki 1975 for inspiration; *. Better model may be Locarno. *. Question: who will enforce it? @financialtimes.com, www.ft.com/content/ab78...

Another great scoop by @johnphudson.bsky.social @washingtonpost.com. *. #China gaining advantages over US b/c of #IranWar; *. Include increased arms sales to US’ Gulf allies; *. Propaganda advantages; and, *. US’ decreased ability to defend allies in Asia. shorturl.at/XJ2K9

The @nytimes.com‘s Autocracy index: *. How did it develop these indicators? *. Why use these instead of POLITY, Freedom House, or other datasets? *. Coding rules? *. Reliability and validity? www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

#Iran update via @nytimes.com: *. 30/33 missile sites restored *. 70% of launchers & stockpile intact Trump & Netanyahu insist they've crippled these programs; the data says otherwise. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/u....

Can covert attacks from Saudi Arabia & UAE restore deterrence vis-a-vis #Iran? How does making them public change the calculus and earlier statements by figures from Turki al-Faisal to Anwar Gargash? @almonitor.bsky.social

The U.S. & #Iran do not have a ceasefire. They are in the midst of (another) phony war. Has either side used the time to build an advantage over the other? @wsj.com. wsj.com/articles/u-s...

In @foreignpolicy.com, @matthewkroenig.bsky.social ( @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social) contends #Iran has no right to enrich uranium & Trump should insist they give it up. However, Trump doesn’t have the leverage...

Interesting piece on #Turkiye’s Steel Dome & buildup in @warontherocks.bsky.social by Ryan Gingeras. Question looms as to how Erdogan will manage guns-butter trade-off given anemic state of Turkish economy. warontherocks.com/ankaras-cros...

#Iran’s response shows gaps with the US & belief in its ability to leverage its position. However, also some movement toward U.S.’ positions on HEU & enrichment. wsj.com/livecoverage.... @wsj.com

Some have raised using the Black Sea Grain Deal as a template for resolving the double blockade around the Strait of #Hormuz. This strikes me as impractical for a few reasons. A thread🧵:

Initial reports in U.S. & Lebanon are saying #Iran‘s response says nothing about enrichment or the nuclear program. Assuming these reports are correct, #Iran is back to its old playbook of dragging its feet in negotiations. Moreover, they can see Trump is desperate for an exit ramp.

#Iran Says It Submitted Response to U.S. Proposal, State Media Reports, but no Details on Its Content. US, #Iran, & #Pakistan working to put together a one-page MOU for monthlong talks to end war. www.wsj.com/livecoverage... via @wsj.com

Prince Turki al-Faisal writes of “..an Israeli plan to ignite war between us and Iran.” When it comes to hopes of Saudi-Israeli normalization, fair to quote fmr. Sec’y of State Jim Baker and say, “Give up the dream”? @arabnewsic26.bsky.social “https://arab.news/26wrr” arabnews.com/node/2642938