EXCLUSIVE: Israel suspects Trump admin. is in contract with three #Iran officials, including Ghalibaf, to try and end war. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

🔔 Live webinar 3/31: Join us for a virtual discussion on the US & Israel’s war in Iran, including implications for the Iranian regime, the Lebanon front, and the Gulf, ft.: • Hamidreza Azizi • Randa Slim • Hasan AlHasan • ALM's @joycekaram.bsky.social Register here: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

⚡️#Iran war: Outlook & Implications. Our webinar next week, with • Hamidreza Azizi • Randa Slim • Hasan AlHasan You don’t wanna miss this one. RSVP us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

🚨BREAKING: Iran rejects Trump's proposal for ceasefire as US dispatches forces www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

Why Iran ballistic missile incident in #Lebanon is dangerous • A first • Target may have been US embassy • Drags Lebanon deeper into war • Deepens divide, anger at Hezbollah, discrimination against displaced • Helps Israel prolong war in South www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

BREAKING: Lebanon expels Iranian ambassador as war tensions mount www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

Bears repeating: Iran is not Venezuela, IRGC are not Chavistas, Ghalibaf is not Rodriguez and Middle East is certainly not Latin America. Question those leaks and silly headlines going around today..

CONFIRMED: Turkish source tells @almonitor.bsky.social that US is asking for talks between VP Vance & #Iran's Ghalibaf. Turkey will be one intermediary, but Iran has yet to respond... www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

Rapid Iran developments this a.m • Trump pauses energy strikes • Witkoff talking to 'top person' • Israeli media: Ghalibaf • Possible meeting in Pakistan: Axios • Oil prices see ~10% drop www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/tr...

Shift happening in Gulf on Iran: - Both Saudi Arabia and UAE inching closer to Trump on war - Qatar cracking down on pro Iran influencers + some Jazeera voices - Kuwait going after Hezbollah elements - Oman keeps distance, contradicts Trump - Bahrain in line w Saudi, UAE

#Iran war enters much more dangerous zone of escalation - Nuclear facilities targeted: US & Israel struck Natanz; Iran hit in Dimona - Infrastructure: Trump gives Iran 48 hrs before “obliterating” power plants - Higher casualties: > 88 injured in Arad, Iran death toll >1,500

UPDATE: 3 weeks on #Iran war • US more dug in, deploying 4,000+ marines,🚢, considers occupying Kharg • Iran regime lost big names but operationally intact, IRGC tightens grip • Global energy crisis, NATO leaving Iraq, Russia pleased, China not too bothered

NEW: 5 reasons #China in no rush to end Iran war 1. US draining resources, distracted 2. Still getting Iranian 🛢️via Hormuz 3. China not too wed to regime 4. Improving Gulf ties 5. Offering aid to Lebanon, Iraq www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

🚨BREAKING: Israel has killed #Iran security chief Ali Larijani, Katz says. Larijani, one of regime’s most influential, emerged as lead figure after Khamenei’s death www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

Trump’s Iran dilemma • Unable to bring in EUR allies • He has to lean on China • Risks losing Gulf allies • Nuclear sites op. requires troops • He realizes protests internally, Kurdish revolt not fully feasible • Israel not listening on🛢️targets, Lebanon Not a good place

On Lebanon: - Israeli threats are partially pressure tactics on LAF vs Hezbollah - Lebanon is not Gaza. Hezbollah is not PLO & Beirut 2026 is not 1982 - Re-occupying South Lebanon won’t produce peace for either side - Keep an eye on direct talks proposed in France to de-escalate

NEW: Hamas is urging #Iran NOT to target Gulf countries (including Qatar where group is based). Abeer Ayyoub looks at Hamas’ calculus and why it’s sitting this one out: www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

How Russia benefits from Iran war • IRGC in control: close to Moscow • Iran more dependent on Russia • Oil, gas prices↗️ • US sanctions waiver • War distracts from Ukraine • Economic crunch in West • US military tied up • No nuclear deal anytime soon • Trump 📞 Putin

Countries hit on day 12 of #Iran war - Oman - Kuwait - UAE - Saudi Arabia - Qatar - Bahrain - Iraq - Iran - Israel - Lebanon + Strait of Hormuz This is very much devolving into a regional war

NEW: Israel has concluded in #Iran war • Regime change not an option • Protests didn’t mobilize • Kurdish option is no more Result: Escalation of strikes as Trump looks for “elegant exit” and wait for next round www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei • More hardline than father • He’s the IRGC candidate • Relatively young: 56 • Avoids public • Trusted by father, clerics • Was in military during Iraq-Iran war • His wife, Zahra, killed in Israeli airstrike w his father

China, meanwhile not losing much sleep over Khamenei killing, is cutting its own side deals to make sure ships not targeted, LNG/oil flow continues. Beijing also happy to see US distracted in another Middle East war. #Iran www.al-monitor.com/newsletter/2...

Since Iran President apologized to neighboring countries this morning, IRGC has fired drones/missiles at: - UAE - Qatar - Bahrain - Azerbaijan foiled a plot Araghchi, Ghalibaf issued more threats as US, Israel bombardment continues across Iran. Week 2.

📻 Great to be on NPR’s 1A this morning with @nickschifrin & @joshuakeating to discuss the war in #Iran, why the IRGC disarming is a mirage, and how Russia is taking advantage of the situation as China deconflicts. the1a.org/segments/the...

Post by @joycekaram.bsky.social: "Video of a shepherd in #Lebanon evacuating with his herd from Naqoura on Israel’s border to western Beqaa. They’ve already been walking for 2 days and expect 3 more to go. War doesn’t spare anyone…"

#China is not losing sleep over Khamenei, sees opening on Taiwan, but: • Iran war complicating oil flow • Threatening Gulf allies • Forcing deconfliction deals • Looking at Russia. This week's newsletter www.al-monitor.com/newsletter/2...

NEW: UAE billionaire Habtoor openly lambasts Trump over Iran war The Emirati businessman condemned the US president, a former business partner, for his “dangerous” attack on Iran and asked whether he had stopped to consider the collateral damage. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

SCOOP: Iranian Kurds, in contact with CIA now in Iraq, are poised to cross to #Iran in next few days. Masoud Barzani no longer opposed. @amberinzaman.bsky.social reporting: www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

UPDATE: Day 4 Iran war • Drone hits US consulate in Dubai • US closes Lebanon, Kuwait, Saudi embassies • Pakistan warns Iran over targeting Saudi • France sending carrier • Israel gives Iran figures in LB 24 hrs to leave • > 787 killed in Iran www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/su...

The Venezuela analogy simply doesn’t apply to Iran. There is no ‘Venezuela scenario’ in Iran or Middle East. This is 47‑yr‑old entrenched security ideological regime with web of proxies across the region. To compare it to any Latin American case is not just misguided, it’s naive.

UPDATE: Day 3, Iran war • IRGC says Hormuz CLOSED • Tanker set of fire • Qatar downs 2 Iran ✈️ • US emb. in Jordan evacuates • Total 6 US forces killed • > 550 dead in Iran • F-15s down in Kuwait www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/qa...

EXCLUSIVE: Sources tell @AlMonitor Israel sees anti-regime protests as imminent in #Iran, is unlikely to invade #Lebanon before Iranian situation clears out. Details www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

🚨 BIG: #Lebanon BANS Hezbollah’s military activities after rockets fired at Israel. Major decision by Beirut try avert both getting dragged into Iran war & civil war. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

UPDATE: Hezbollah enters #Iran war, reportedly firing missiles at Israel from South Lebanon. Israel now retaliating across Lebanon including in Dahiye (S. Beirut). The 2024 ceasefire was already shaky but this is what many in Lebanon hoped to avoid. Latest: www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/tr...

Less than 48 hrs into war, Trump says ready to talk to regime in #Iran. “They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them”, he tells Atlantic. Comes as 3 US troops killed, IRGC hit UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi, Iraq, Syria, Qatar, Israel. Hormuz crippled.

JUST IN: Three US troops killed in war with Iran. Day 2 www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

DAY 2: US/Israel - Iran war • Drones hit Oman, missiles @ Cyprus, UAE heavily hit • Leadership of 3 post-Khamenei • 🚢 stranded, turn from Hormuz • 1000s of flights ❌ • Bomb shelter hit near Jerusalem • Israel, US bombing • > 300 total casualties www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/ir...

UPDATE: TRUMP says KHAMENEI DEAD • US and Israel confirm • Barrage of missiles at Tel Aviv • Drones hit Dubai int’l airport www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/tr...

Increasing chatter in Israeli media that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has been killed. No US confirmation, no Iranian confirmation as of now.

Here we go: Iran's IRGC announces closure of Hormuz Strait, carries 20% of global oil supply www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/ir...

UPDATE: US/Israel - Iran war • Khamenei whereabouts unknown • Khamenei son in law killed • Iran threatens 🚢 in Hormuz • Iran missiles, drones hit across region • Netanyahu to speak soon • Israel says targeted 30 Iranian leaders www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/ir...

LIVE UPDATES: US, Israel -#Iran war • US, Israel hit >20 cities • Defense minister, IRGC cmdr killed (Rtrs) • Iran fires missiles at Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan • Iran FM: Khamenei alive • Airlines suspend✈️ • US: Op could last days www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/tr...

Diplo Sources in Tehran tell @al-monitor.bsky.social that at least 5 embassies have fully evacuated their staff: 1- Argentina 2- UK 3- New Zealand 4- Ukraine 5- Iceland www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/us...

UPDATE : #Iran - US talks • > 2 hrs in Geneva, break now • Iran: Closed some gaps, new ideas • Iranian official: no zero enrichment, no dismantling of ☢️ facilities (AJ) • Israel: Serious gaps • Modi left Israel • Trump holding intel briefing now www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

US-Iran talks tom. in Geneva will determine whether • Trump agrees to partial deal • Trump orders limited strike • Trump & Israel strike together • Trump & Iran buy more time Regime change option & full deal (missiles, proxies) seem unrealistic given US & Iran red lines

➡️ JOIN us for this #Iran webinar today • @Alihashem just back from Tehran • @ElizHagedorn on latest US talks • @hdagres on protests returning to Iran 🕐 1 pm ET, 9:30 pm Tehran LINK us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

UPDATE: #Iran • US partially evacuating #Lebanon embassy • Rubio delays Israel visit • Report: Larijani may travel to Oman tom. • Israel strikes Hezbollah • Modi in Israel on Wed. • Talks on Thursday in Geneva • Ford 🚢 arrives in Souda Bay www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

NEW: Israeli defense officials are warning Netanyahu against pushing US for Iran strikes. 2 reasons: War of attrition, blaming Israel later. More www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

NEW: Join us this Tues, 2/24 for a live webinar on escalating US-Iran tensions amid fears of war should nuclear negotiations fail. @joycekaram.bsky.social will moderate the discussion with @elizhagedorn.bsky.social, Holly Dagres, & Ali Hashem. Register here: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

⚡️LIVE Webinar: Join us Tuesday to discuss latest on #Iran - US escalation. Great panel with colleagues Ali Hashem(was just in Tehran), Elizabeth Hagedorn & Holly Dagres. REGISTER ➡️ us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...