With real disposable personal income in Sept 2025 still fractionally below where it was in Jan 2021, there is hardly a surplus of spendable inflation-adjusted consumer purchasing power that points to painless way out from America’s affordability trap stephenroach.substack.com/p/affordabil...

In de harde cijfers is nog weinig te merken van buitenlands talent dat Amerika ontvlucht? www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

China appears to have got what it wants, which is control over its own destiny. By using its leverage from rare earths, it has kept US pressure at arm’s length. Now, it needs to unlock stronger domestic demand; the real test will be at home www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Ganesh had A'dam/Randstad vs 'De Provincie' ook kunnen noemen www.ft.com/content/f9c2...

At ~14.5% margins, the S&P is more profitable than ever. And unlike the clear “bubbles” of Dotcom and Pandemania, current valuations are well within trend. Adjusting for margins, the current p/e is ~17.75%, which is about the same as it was from 2015-2018! a16z.substack.com/p/charts-of-...

These days, if you knock a hole in your wall, it’s probably cheaper to buy a flatscreen TV and stick it in front of the hole, than to hire a handyman to fix your drywall a16z.substack.com/p/why-ac-is-... HT @semafor.com

U.S. employers have announced 1.1 million layoffs so far this year — the largest reading since the pandemic recession and on par with 2008 and 2009 job cuts during the Great Recession www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Bretton Woods, GATT, dollar hegemony looked like pillars of a universal order but were just instruments of demographic arbitrage. "The international order” was actually a contingent settlement that only worked whilst specific demographic conditions held 7thin.gs/p/automation...

China ages rapidly. Europe’s population shrinks. The US will grow only through immigration – which is now politically constrained. The demographic heartlands of future demand are clear 7thin.gs/p/automation...

The real question isn’t how to fight Chinese robots. It’s how to ensure automation’s benefits spread rather than concentrate 7thin.gs/p/automation...

The longest shutdown ever. Supreme Court hearings on Trump’s trade powers. America still sets the rhythm of the global economy — but right now the beat is off. I looks at how these overlapping shocks are rewriting the risk map for investors ecrresearch.com/research/glo...

Hong Kong’s leaders reject the choice between being a Chinese or a world city, if “world” is another way of saying “Western”. Hong Kong officials insist that the territory can prosper without hewing to liberal, democratic values www.economist.com/internationa...

There’s been so much talk this year about crypto and Bitcoin specifically, and Bitcoin’s role as a debasement hedge. And yet not only have Treasuries and Bitcoin offered similar returns, the Bitcoin volatility has been so much more aggressive www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

As a year ago, this election was less an endorsement of a programme than another expression of frustration. Mamdani’s joyful campaign made New Yorkers feel good, but his victory could make Republican strategists feel even better www.economist.com/leaders/2025...

President Trump isn’t yet winning voters over on the agenda he promised, and he’s also activating his political opposition with his power grabs. This is a recipe for a midterm blowout www.readtangle.com/the-2025-ele...

Remember the bumper stickers: “I’d Take Mean Tweets & $2 Gas Right Now.” Well… here you go: A lot of people will take mean texts & fighting Trump right now. Or mean texts & their federal job, or stability from the government, or even just political power www.readtangle.com/the-2025-ele...

Tuesday’s results signal that many voters in all the constituencies that moved toward Trump in 2024 remain within reach for both parties www.readtangle.com/the-2025-ele...

Yesterday shows that Democrats should have a relentless focus on pocketbook issues and largely avoid invitations to join culture wars. Certainly in Mamdani’s case, it also helped to have a good ground game, a charismatic presence and savvy media machine www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

SCOTUS Showdown, Shutdown & Trade War 2.0 America still calls the tune for the world economy, but it’s dancing to an increasingly erratic political beat. I unpack 3 US flashpoints: the shutdown, Trump’s Supreme Court tariff battle & the ongoing trade war ecrresearch.com/research/glo...

Despite all the problems with its domestic economy, China has shown it can dump exports on the rest of the world, and use its leverage (from soybeans to rare earths) to deter the US www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Without understanding, we observe more closely, we read physical cues. We slow down. We watch what they do so we can copy it. We make mistakes, embracing an increasingly rare experience in our day-to-day: failure. Few opportunities for not knowing remain www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

Canada a heroic record of standing up to President Donald Trump, in political advertisements written by Canadians, that is. In the real world, Trumpian bullying is racking up the wins www.economist.com/internationa...

16 charts that explain the AI boom www.understandingai.org/p/16-charts-...

Trump will pull a TACO but claim to be a rooster, not a chicken. He’ll crow that Brussels caved, Japan conceded, India folded, & Korea yielded. The tariffs can remain at 10% because, rhetorically, America has already won rbaldwin.substack.com/p/how-does-t...

@baldwinre.bsky.social: The true objective of Trump II’s trade policy isn't economic transformation, but emotional restoration. The trade war isn’t about fixing the economy. It’s about making MAGA America feel like it’s winning again rbaldwin.substack.com/p/how-does-t...

If we really believe in the dignity of work, why do we tax income from labour at a higher rate than the income from dividends and capital gains? www.ft.com/content/c505...

China Exit = Myth? | Sahel = Ticking Bomb Every two weeks, I send a flash update to our clients. Drawing on top-tier sources and think tanks, I cut through the noise and I’ll flag what’s overexposed, what’s underexposed, and what’s spot-on ecrresearch.com/global-polit... #geopolitics #tradewar

If drug smugglers can be labelled terrorists, deemed to be waging war against America, and then slain at presidential command, then other people he identifies as terrorists could be just as vulnerable www.economist.com/united-state...

"Corporate Democrats took the Party’s away from its real mission — to lift up the working class and lower middle class, and help the poor. Instead, they pushed for globalization, privatization & the deregulation of Wall Street. They became Republican-Lite" robertreich.substack.com/p/the-mamdan...

Two betting markets expect the previous government shutdown record to be shattered @kalshiofficial.bsky.social @polymarket.bsky.social

Amerika - Het land van de onbegrensde cryptoboefjes www.bbc.com/news/article...

France’s Fifth Republic Has Reached Its Limit. A constitution built for two parties can’t govern a nation fractured in three danperry.substack.com/p/frances-fi...

The right has to rethink whether being anti-PC is really the best glue to hold together a community. Tasteless and rude isn’t a flex. And performatively standing against something isn’t a coherent ideology www.readtangle.com/the-republic...

Almost nothing in commerce can equal affairs of state as a source of intellectual stimulation and a means to historical impact. Those who reach the top of tech seem the most clear-sighted about its limits www.ft.com/content/519a...

Petr Fiala tried to mobilise Czech voters by asking: “Do we want to move towards the east or towards the west?”. But what does that mean, when the west is Donald Trump, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, Germany’s AfD and France’s Rassemblement National? timothygartonash.substack.com/p/prague-is-...

"For Democrats, California is not just the big enchilada. It’s the only enchilada on the menu.” www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

It’s not the rate of inflation that counts as much as the price level of the basics that people must buy www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

"The US strategy is cruder but devastatingly effective...If you control oil today and position yourself to control rare earths, lithium and Arctic resources tomorrow, you maintain power regardless of which way the energy transition goes. You can sell fossil fuels now and critical minerals later."

Whilst Europe writes sustainability reports, the United States is positioning itself to control the physical inputs climate adaptation will require 7thin.gs/p/sustainabi...

Europe has led on policy, not on technology. China has manufactured the transition Europe regulated for. And the United States has doubled down on extraction 7thin.gs/p/sustainabi...

Agentic AI is the kind of AI that workers dread and executives dream of — it threatens jobs while lifting productivity www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

The US economy is locked into a “K-shaped recovery” in which some do well and many do not. This perversely keeps rates under control and eggs on the stock market — while allowing risks of social unrest to increase www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

"The [Gaza] war was neither new, anomalous, or aberrant. Not an abnormal deviation from traditional Israeli-Palestinian dynamics but their culmination. Not the wave of the future but the past’s formidable revenge" www.ft.com/content/358d...

Today, immigrants make up a seventh of the U.S. population, about the same as the historical high in 1890. One result is MAGA www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...

Republicans remain highly patriotic while their party hollows out America’s democratic institutions & their leader flirts with kingship. Democrats have a hard time feeling proud of their country unless one of their own is in office, pursuing their favored policies www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...

As the world is still catching its breath from earlier rounds of the trade war, US & Chinese cowboys — after a deceptively calm summer — once again face each other at high noon. How will this duel end, and what does it reveal about the broader power struggle? ecrresearch.com/research/glo...

Japan's Takaichi faces an unenviable trifecta: a divided parliament, an economy struggling under the weight of inflation and demographic decline, and foreign partners growing harder to manage www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Only two countries in Africa were never colonised by Europeans, Liberia and Ethiopia brilliantmaps.com/african-coun...

The US is unique by separating financing authority from spending authority. You can have spending authority without financing authority (debt ceiling crisis) & financing authority without spending authority. In parliamentary systems, this doesn't happen www.crisesnotes.com/what-the-hel...

In the early cold war, intelligence advantage came from cash, operatives and ideals. In 2030, it will come from control of AI companions that billions will trust with their secrets www.chinatalk.media/p/the-us-chi...