Italy's exports to well-known transshipment hubs like Kyrgyzstan (lhs) and Armenia (rhs) are going through the roof. This is happening more than 3 years after the invasion of Ukraine. You can do this kind of thing, but it makes the EU ineffective as a geopolitical actor. You can't have it both ways.

NYT: “.. The Trump Organization is in talks that could bring a Trump-branded property to one of Saudi Arabia’s largest government-owned real estate developments .. the latest example of Mr. Trump blending governance and family business ..” @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/w...

Prof. Rodriguez-Pose asks to which extent size of cities matters, at Regional Studies Associaton conference. Bigger needs not to be better, and density may destroy social capital (and more lessons)

German industry once the economic powerhouse of Europe is now being hit from multiple directions. The latest assault comes from US bend to hit its closest allies on.ft.com/4p5sjvP

The Economic Impact of Brexit on GDP seems to be - 6% to - 8% till 2025. Impact on investment is even larger. share.google/30UFNyXkw2M5...

"Campaigns aimed at anti-elite candidates can unintentionally mobilize support for them" www.nber.org/papers/w3443...

There is a point for a country, when self-inflicted decline in soft power translates into decline in hard power. The latter depends on how many close allies a country has. US passport lost significantly in terms of its value measured by visa free entry worldwide. www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

Germany plans €377B in defense procurements as Kremlin bot network spreads fake story about Chancellor Merz’s wife buying Rheinmetall shares A new disinfo campaign flagged by @antibot4navalny.bsky.social is spreading videos posing as @bellingcat.com, The Telegraph, and German tabloid Bild.

"Mr Putin’s initial war boom has now given way to stagflation, with growth at almost zero, labour shortages, hidden bad debts, inflation of 8% and interest rates of 16.5%. Another half-decade of this would probably trigger an economic and banking crisis in Russia." www.economist.com/leaders/2025...

Russia: Lukoil is now down 20% and Rosneft 13% over the rolling 5 day period.

"Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles. Musk’s partisan activities also increased the sales of other automakers' electric and hybrid vehicles 17-22%" www.nber.org/papers/w3441...

US goods prices are reaccelerating amidst the trade war—goods inflation is at the highest level in more than two years, with prices for all goods rising 1.9% over the last year & prices for durables rising 1.8%

The last time America hit 12% credit card delinquency rate, the country was deep in the middle of a major financial crisis that threatened to unravel the entire banking system

New w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: Wealthy Americans, buoyed by a booming stock market, are spending freely. Lower-income households, stung by inflation and a slowing labor market, are pulling back www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com

A record $50-billion payment from Russia to shareholders of dismantled oil giant Yukos remains in force after the Dutch Supreme Court on Friday quashed a Russian appeal, ending a long-running legal saga.

Both Italy and US are not on the sustainable fiscal paths, but that data shows that US is actually in worse shape than Italy, when the fiscal gap is properly measured... www.nber.org/papers/w3434...

Welcome to Europe. There is space here for best development economists around.

There is no single market in Europe. But it can be created and that would help. on.ft.com/3WuJjiR via @FT

“By infecting AI models, Russia is rewriting history for everyone around the world in real time,” writes NewsGuard co-CEO Gordon Crovitz in his Reality Check Commentary. Read it here: www.newsguardrealitycheck.com/p/ai-models-...

“.. Lower population growth as the president presses ahead with mass deportations will knock between 0.5 and one percentage points off America’s GDP growth between mid-2025 and mid-2026, according to S&P Global Ratings.” @telegraphnews.bsky.social www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...

"Russia’s oil refineries are a bit like a man who is being repeatedly punched. He will not die from one punch, or even half a dozen punches. But it becomes harder and harder for him to recover after each subsequent blow." carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Inflation down in Euro area (2.0% compared to 2.2% year ago), and the same as year ago in the EU (2.4%). ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...

Broad tariffs downsides: "Efficiency losses would approach one-third of revenues raised, the tax system would be less progressive, and there would be serious tax administration concerns. ... Broad tariffs generate a large negative supply shock ..." www.nber.org/papers/w3419...

NEW: Since the start of the Ukraine invasion, 17 out of 27 EU nations have spent more on Russian oil and gas than they’ve sent to Ukraine in aid! Despite an oil embargo, Europe is still sending £1bn a month on Russian energy. This week’s column: www.thetimes.com/article/dd9d...

Russia: Fuel crisis is spreading rapidly and has now reached Lipetsk region, located north of Voronezh and south of Moscow.

The US is a major importer of Indian products made of Russian oil @npr.org www.npr.org/2025/09/08/n...

Quite significant downward revisions of #Russia GDP forecasts. In 2025 from 2.5% to 1% In 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3%

Just sent out this piece. We are starting to get some decent data on the Ukrainian campaign against Russian refineries--seeing what they are attacking and when. It’s revealing about their strategy and points out how the campaign is poised to develop. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

European governments voting with their money. Only 8% of new German defence procurement planned to go to US companies. Wise move.

Finland-Russia life expectancy gap is the largest border gap in the world

European unemployment rate went up during the COVID pandemics of 2020, but the downward trend continues since then, according to the latest Eurostat data. ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...

Poland and Romania have the lowest vacancy rates in the EU (the number of available, unfilled jobs relative to the total number of positions in the economy). ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...

40% (!) of Chinese urban workers (and 25% total) have short-term, on demand job contracts, many in manufacturing. They gain flexibility but at cost of not upgrading their skills, no provision for pensions, no stability and families. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Poland has closed its border with Belarus due to Zapad-2025 military exercises by Russia and Belarus and Russian drones flying into Poland. This cuts off a €25-billion-a-year trade artery between China and the EU -

according to an immigration attorney representing several arrested workers, ICE agents chose to arrest the Korean workers to fulfill the quota of 3,000 daily immigrant arrests set by Stephen Miller www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...

Employment rate in the European Union (age 20-64) continues to grow in 2025Q2 compared to 2025Q1, and is now at 76.2%. But the two worst performers are Hungary (-.5% change) and Italy (-.3% change). ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...

They say it's better to be lucky than good. That's the story of France since Jay Powell's very dovish speech at Jackson Hole on August 22. That speech has sent US long-term yields a lot lower (blue), which has also pulled down French yields (red). Breathing space for France...

"Manufacturing shed 12,000 jobs, bringing total losses to 78,000 this year. The mining sector, which includes oil and gas, lost 6,000 jobs in August, while employment in wholesale trade has fallen by 32,000 this year." on.ft.com/4nuyN6y

Denmark announced the record air defence contract and is not buying from US on.ft.com/3HVeSPq

The only things that have kept the United States out of being a major global coffee supplier are climate, altitude, and soil, and fortunately we have a 50% tariff on Brazil which will solve these, reducing our dependence on foreign beans.

Over 20 Russian drones fired into Poland from Belarus during the night. Some were shot by Polish and Dutch F15 & F35 (see below). Poland initiates NATO discussion to use Article 4. wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/polska/pierw...

Highest level of support since Gallup started asking this question a quarter century ago

"International students, particularly in STEM fields, play a critical role in shaping host countries' innovation ecosystems, often transitioning to permanent residents and STEM workers." www.nber.org/papers/w3421...

Erosion of institutions has serious consequences for economic performance. Yet the process is gradual: tipping points are difficult to identify. And economic effects are not immediate so also difficult to detect on time.

MORGAN STANLEY: “.. Pricing power is now the most frequently mentioned tariff mitigation strategy, even edging out supply chain diversification. “.. Consumer Goods prices are likely to firm as tariffs ripple through the system.”

The United States Department of Defense is a massive organization, with millions of personnel and thousands of facilities. Do you realize how expensive it is to rebrand something that big? It means new signs, IDs, stationary, etc. On top of everything else, it’d be unprecedentedly huge govt waste.

Hi All, Just released my free weekend update. The big story this week the Ukrainians keeping up their ranged campaign against Russian oil refineries and pipelines--and having strategic effect. Putin is warning Russians about shortages and Fico is making nice. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

When even Rand Paul thinks you’re despicable.

Hiring people is a form of investment. And when tariffs and some key parameters of economic policy may change overnight (sometimes twice, back and forth) hiring is less attractive because there is more risk... on.ft.com/45SJDxx

Trump cuts financial support for security of countries bordering Russia. Not very surprising. Maybe he was asked for a small favour in Alaska. on.ft.com/4pgjLmX