The US is a major importer of Indian products made of Russian oil @npr.org www.npr.org/2025/09/08/n...

Quite significant downward revisions of #Russia GDP forecasts. In 2025 from 2.5% to 1% In 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3%

Just sent out this piece. We are starting to get some decent data on the Ukrainian campaign against Russian refineries--seeing what they are attacking and when. It’s revealing about their strategy and points out how the campaign is poised to develop. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

European governments voting with their money. Only 8% of new German defence procurement planned to go to US companies. Wise move.

Finland-Russia life expectancy gap is the largest border gap in the world

European unemployment rate went up during the COVID pandemics of 2020, but the downward trend continues since then, according to the latest Eurostat data. ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...

Poland and Romania have the lowest vacancy rates in the EU (the number of available, unfilled jobs relative to the total number of positions in the economy). ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...

40% (!) of Chinese urban workers (and 25% total) have short-term, on demand job contracts, many in manufacturing. They gain flexibility but at cost of not upgrading their skills, no provision for pensions, no stability and families. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Poland has closed its border with Belarus due to Zapad-2025 military exercises by Russia and Belarus and Russian drones flying into Poland. This cuts off a €25-billion-a-year trade artery between China and the EU -

according to an immigration attorney representing several arrested workers, ICE agents chose to arrest the Korean workers to fulfill the quota of 3,000 daily immigrant arrests set by Stephen Miller www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...

Employment rate in the European Union (age 20-64) continues to grow in 2025Q2 compared to 2025Q1, and is now at 76.2%. But the two worst performers are Hungary (-.5% change) and Italy (-.3% change). ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...

They say it's better to be lucky than good. That's the story of France since Jay Powell's very dovish speech at Jackson Hole on August 22. That speech has sent US long-term yields a lot lower (blue), which has also pulled down French yields (red). Breathing space for France...

"Manufacturing shed 12,000 jobs, bringing total losses to 78,000 this year. The mining sector, which includes oil and gas, lost 6,000 jobs in August, while employment in wholesale trade has fallen by 32,000 this year." on.ft.com/4nuyN6y

Denmark announced the record air defence contract and is not buying from US on.ft.com/3HVeSPq

The only things that have kept the United States out of being a major global coffee supplier are climate, altitude, and soil, and fortunately we have a 50% tariff on Brazil which will solve these, reducing our dependence on foreign beans.

Over 20 Russian drones fired into Poland from Belarus during the night. Some were shot by Polish and Dutch F15 & F35 (see below). Poland initiates NATO discussion to use Article 4. wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/polska/pierw...

Highest level of support since Gallup started asking this question a quarter century ago

"International students, particularly in STEM fields, play a critical role in shaping host countries' innovation ecosystems, often transitioning to permanent residents and STEM workers." www.nber.org/papers/w3421...

Erosion of institutions has serious consequences for economic performance. Yet the process is gradual: tipping points are difficult to identify. And economic effects are not immediate so also difficult to detect on time.

MORGAN STANLEY: “.. Pricing power is now the most frequently mentioned tariff mitigation strategy, even edging out supply chain diversification. “.. Consumer Goods prices are likely to firm as tariffs ripple through the system.”

The United States Department of Defense is a massive organization, with millions of personnel and thousands of facilities. Do you realize how expensive it is to rebrand something that big? It means new signs, IDs, stationary, etc. On top of everything else, it’d be unprecedentedly huge govt waste.

Hi All, Just released my free weekend update. The big story this week the Ukrainians keeping up their ranged campaign against Russian oil refineries and pipelines--and having strategic effect. Putin is warning Russians about shortages and Fico is making nice. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

When even Rand Paul thinks you’re despicable.

Hiring people is a form of investment. And when tariffs and some key parameters of economic policy may change overnight (sometimes twice, back and forth) hiring is less attractive because there is more risk... on.ft.com/45SJDxx

Trump cuts financial support for security of countries bordering Russia. Not very surprising. Maybe he was asked for a small favour in Alaska. on.ft.com/4pgjLmX

The 30-year yield is rising everywhere, even though the world's central banks are in an easing cycle. That's the best indication that rising long yields are due to a global debt glut, the answer to which is to get lax fiscal policy under control. Not lean on your central bank...

"A Homeland Security source said the jump was driven by deportees swept up in Trump’s mass deportation campaign trying to sneak back into the US." It turns out that people object to being torn away from their life partners, their kids, the lives they've built. Who could've foreseen this.

Germany and Italy say they export lots of goods to Kyrgyzstan (black), but Kyrgyz import data (blue) show little arriving from either. Kyrgyzstan is just what it says on the invoice. This stuff obviously goes to Russia. Poland & Lithuania stopped this racket. Why won't Germany and Italy do the same?

Hi All, Just sent out this piece on a Ukrainian strategic air campaign against Russia. The Ukrainians seem to understand that targeting Russia strategically through oil and rail attacks is one of the best ways to weaken the Russian war machine. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

💰🦓 Viktor Orbán’s €30M Hatvanpuszta family dacha (ex-Habsburg estate) with zebras and antelopes around is now global news (New York Post etc.) after dominating 🇭🇺 media all summer. The world can see how “pro-family conservatism” simply masks classic post-Soviet kleptocracy. 🎥 by @telexhu.bsky.social

Over the last 30 years the dominant mindset of the American right drifted away from the rest of the West, towards China and Russia. Trump is an outcome of something deeper on.ft.com/4gkt8xX via @FT

CAP ECON: “We obviously have no particular insight into whether the Supreme Court will uphold .. If it did, “Treasury would .. need to return most of the now-close to $100bn in additional customs duties .. and there is a danger .. other countries would back-track on any preliminary agreements.”

The EU’s €150bn loans-for-arms programme is set to be spent in full. on.ft.com/4oVA7Bj

Trump's tariffs declared illigal but will stay pending appeal. on.ft.com/3JxOnzZ via @FT

UK solar power output is breaking records this year, and has now exceeded the total generated in 2024 🌞 www.ft.com/content/9e49...

Russian media report massive lines at gas stations due to a fuel shortage — refineries have partially or completely halted operations after drone attacks. Fuel collapse in Russia: Primorsky Krai, occupied Crimea, Zabaykalsky Krai. Well then, Russians can confidently switch to horses and donkeys.

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Fuel fallout. Ukrainian drone strikes have pushed Russian gasoline prices higher than ever, and experts say a shortage could be looming

"if you bring across a semiconductor inside a computer, it'll get no tariff. But if you pluck it out of the computer, it'll get 300%." That’s not policy; that’s a loophole factory. You’ll get creative packaging, not new fabs.

Cut immigration, cut labor supply, add tariffs on imports… and voilà: higher food prices.

Brave new world is coming? AI is quite effective in political persuasion: top chatbots can change your mind - on.ft.com/3Hgb76P via @FT

Trump has no cards www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

“Would have never happened if I were President.”

Putin's gloating face yesterday was hard to watch. Only one thing will make him understand he can't win in Ukraine: the US shuts down the shadow fleet. @econharris.bsky.social and I've done lots of work on this. US sanctions can crush Russia's shadow fleet. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/time-to-tu...

✍️ "Putin Should Be Careful What He Wishes For," writes @hannanotte.bsky.social in her new piece in @nytimes.com. Don't miss her full essay below––outlining why the stakes of today's #TrumpPutinSummit may be higher for Russia than meets the eye: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...

"US wholesale prices jump 3.3% as Trump trade war hits economy. Rise in Producer Price Index in July was the highest since February." If I were in the White House I would generate some big distraction so people do not pay attention. on.ft.com/4misPWl

" Subverting the Fed and causing it to fly blind without reliable data will be far more dangerous than clowning about with tariffs." on.ft.com/4mgwyE1

We've become so accustomed to lawbreaking that this probably won't ripple much, but it is important not to forget that firing the IRS Commissioner for refusing to break the law--if that's in fact what happened here--would and should prompt immediate articles of impeachment in any other presidency.

“All it takes is a tacky gift and a pinky promise ..” $AAPL

Sanctioned Russian oligarchs including a producer of arms received one million Euro of EU funds and do rather well producing wine in Tuscany, using clever ownership schemes. en.ilsole24ore.com/art/russian-...