OK so we've just published a whole bunch of papers on how the UK should be thinking about economic strategy. The main argument is that we should think about our deep assets and invest in those comparative advantages. Here's a synthesis paper www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/publications...

Parliament needs better national security briefings ✍️ @robinpotter.bsky.social www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

This is great from @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social, and correct to say gov must shore up public realm to cope in a crisis, and forge a more mutually trusting and tolerant society that is resilient to extremism, "where neighbour does not fear neighbour and people willingly help each other"

Latest news article: Shadow fleet gets a naval bodyguard as Russia tests UK resolve in the Channel www.navylookout.com/shadow-fleet...

A 400-strong parliamentary party that can't muster at least a couple of decent potential PMs from within its ranks is really in terrible trouble www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

The more I pay attention to the Government (& on the one hand I don't think I pay *that* much attention, but on the other hand I've just watched over 2 hrs of Olly Robbins giving testimony to a Commons committee) the more I think the big issue is Morgan McSweeney being *hopelessly* out of his depth.

Also they have social media in Canada and Carney's doing fine. They have it in Spain and Sanchez has been PM since 2018. And in France where Macron's been President since 2017.

Giles was so generous with his time and so helpful when it came to explaining to journalists very clearly and with quotable precision exactly how a wrong un landlord was being a wrong un. But mostly I just remember thinking he was a really, really kind human who cared about the state of others.

This is the text message journalist David Maddox sent to No.10 Director of Communications Tim Allan. They knew Mandelson was a security risk, had failed vetting, but appointed him anyway. Then they orchestrated a cover up; now firing the Foreign Office Perm Sec who wasn’t even in post at the time.

It’s not like Mandelson’s reputation was not known to the PM - Epstein, the lobbying work, New Labour era scandals Surely the PM knew any of this could give rise to issues in a vetting process? Yet he announces the appointment before any process could happen - why? That’s the Q that needs asking

Russia was not deterred from invading Ukraine because it (correctly) believed UK and European powers lacked the means and will to fight UK arguably still falls short on both counts. Absent US commitment, Europe must now deter Russia alone Defence investment has to catch up with Germany and Poland

🇬🇧 must procure cost-effective vessels and counter sub-threshold threats to protect its Overseas Territories and prevent the erosion of its global influence 👉 Read the #Memorandum for #BritainsWorld by @robinpotter.bsky.social

FACTCHECK UPDATE: No, the UK can't "be more like Norway" in the North Sea 🇬🇧 extracted most of its oil & gas after privatisation 🇳🇴 has much more left due to state stewardship 🤔Lawson spent UK windfall on tax cuts; Norway got a sovereign wealth fund www.carbonbrief.org/...

No mention of any UK attack submarine deploying in response - likely as only one is operational and sent to Australia to fulfil AUKUS commitments Can UK actually sustain ambitious global strategy with a small navy and threats at home? If the operation lasted for a month, was it really deterred?

💥 New leaked calls — transcripts and audio: Sergey Lavrov encourages Hungarian foreign minister Péter Szijjártó to blackmail the EU Council over Ukraine, then asks him to pass along EU documents. It’s hard to say which part is worse.

🚨🚨Whilst unsurprising still quite a scoop by @politico.eu revealing that #Hungary and #Russia struck 12-point cooperation agreement for closer ties in light of the forthcoming general election. 🧵 www.politico.eu/article/hung...

It is sad when the vice-president of the United States sees his job as spreading Kremlin propaganda.

Hope the UK’s political-security apparatus is now much more clear eyed about the threats to UK interests from this administration, and indeed where those interests really lie after the Greenland crisis

Fair enough doesn’t sound urgent

🚨🚨special episode: I spoke to the UK’s former head of international energy strategy about what the war means for global energy supplies. It’s bad news, I’m afraid. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...

This has been brewing for a while Iran has brought UK military decline and inadequate defence of Cyprus into focus For UK MoD allocating thin resources, tension between 'NATO first' and sovereign requirement to defend UK territories Nicosia will have been watching Diego Garcia deal with interest

Today's newsletter. Cheery topic!

Genuinely good news But - whether it’s on fiscal devolution or the EU single market, the depth of the inherited economic hole which has necessitated these moves was very clear two years ago Why didn’t Labour arrive with fiscal pilot packages ready to roll in London, Manchester, and West Midlands?

Unfortunately across range of security spheres the UK at present looks least likely globally to start extricating itself, to build autonomy or diversify its relationships Look at the language in the National Security Strategy or the 'Tech Prosperity Deal', the agenda was/is deepening dependency!

Just fundamentally unserious Three decades of defence cuts and delays to replacement ships during austerity have consequences, it turns out “The Navy is not just hollowed out, but is now actually incapable of performing many of the routine tasks it was managing until quite recently”

Heartbreaking

Can anyone explain to me what the Blue Labour justification for this is? Who out there will vote Labour because Mahmood prevented a Sudanese Chevening Scholar? And to be honest, why won’t the PM simply overrule her?

I dunno guys I feel this probably should have implications for more areas of domestic policy? Though as has been put to me in recent discussions at Chatham House - do our leaders really believe these assessments? As incomprehensible to understand relative inactivity otherwise 📸UK/FR strategies

Another example (as if we needed it) of the UK government’s strange aversion to civil defence planning - despite commitments to develop “whole of society” resilience in UK defence and security strategies “We’re not thinking about this adequately. We’re ducking it”

Another great review of my New Labour book! Alongside Macintyre's book on Brown, by @rostaylor.bsky.social in @thenewworldmag.bsky.social. 'The Blair and Brown governments made people’s lives better. The same can hardly be said for any of their successors'. www.thenewworld.co.uk/ros-taylor-w...

MoD on a strat comms push to loosen focus on inadequate deployed units to protect UK interests in the region Not necessarily this government’s fault mind you… defence spending has only recently returned to 2010 level

Bonkers. "One western official said that the proposal to send the ship [HMS Dragon] did not cross the desk of the chief of defence staff until 9.30am on Tuesday — four days after the war started and nearly two days after RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus was hit" www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...

I heard about this from Estonian and Lithuanian officials in Tallinn last year How well developed is UK government planning for a potential rapid reception of large numbers of evacuees? Are local and national UK officials drawing on Warsaw’s experience? I’m not sure answer to either is positive..

Does... Kemi think you can magic up a warship overnight? I mean, I have my criticisms of the govts defense policy/spending but the reason we haven't got ships to deploy is because the Tories failed to invest in the forces for years. You can only use the ships you have

This is a big reason European states are getting drawn in. Iran can keep chucking drones at Gulf states for longer than they can shoot them down.

Viktor Orban is now 20 points behind in the polls - and so he has ordered the military to guard “key energy facilities” against a possible Ukrainian “attack.” Hungarians fear he plans a fake national security emergency or false-flag incident before the April 12 election apnews.com/article/hung...

NEW How Palantir captured the Ministry of Defence How a close read of public domain documents show how MoD was commercially colonised by Palantir By me, at FT www.ft.com/content/5207...

Such a good piece today from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com which shows that the declining graduate premium is very much a UK problem rather than a general (or inevevitable) consequence of more people going to uni www.ft.com/content/649d...

Who is briefing the PM on this? No prioritisation of the 62 recommendations in the Strategic Defence Review gov accepted in full, while the 2023 equipment plan has a £17 billion hole No world in which that doesn’t require substantial work on what really gets funded within 2.6% commitment or 3% aim

A new paper shows that less than 2 months of exposure to Twitter’s algorithmic feed significantly shifts people’s political views to the right. Moving from chronological feed to the algorithmic feed also increases engagement. This is one of the most concerning papers I’ve read in awhile.

Why didn’t MoD or DBT through the UK Space Agency place contracts as launch customers?

BBC's Arabic radio service in Lebanon closed after 85 years as part of a £28.5m savings drive. 'Just months later, in October 2023, the Russian state-owned Sputnik news agency took over the frequency. Its news bulletin opened with “This is Moscow”, replacing the previous “This is London” intro.' 🙄

BBC World Service and the British Council are core elements of UK influence overseas. In this moment of geopolitical upheaval they are needed more than ever. Appears reflective of wider spending issues. Could be Spring before we see a Defence Investment Plan, nearly 2 years after taking office.

Not a good idea

Per @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk: 'Reform has gobbled up a large chunk of the right-leaning youth, this is reallocation within an already shrinking bloc [...] rather than a far-right surge, the youth vote in the UK shows a remarkable opposite trend: a surge of progressive voting, including among young men'

An Inspector calls

it's really not over yet

A new national police force is the right move, but the case for merging local forces is much weaker @cassiarowland.bsky.social gives her verdict on the home secretary's proposals on police reform www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/poli...

Dozens of shadow fleet tankers have traversed the English Channel since promises of tougher stance. Danish Straits see about the same numbers. BBC is not clear on if they mean flagless or flagged tankers, but either way there are lots. Pic related, sanctioned tankers this minute.

457 British service personnel died in Afghanistan A sacrifice Trump betrayed in the Doha Agreement with the Taliban (UK and NATO not even in the room), and Biden carried through Should be clear enough by now that the British government must build capacity to defend its interests without the US