This is a big reason European states are getting drawn in. Iran can keep chucking drones at Gulf states for longer than they can shoot them down.

Viktor Orban is now 20 points behind in the polls - and so he has ordered the military to guard “key energy facilities” against a possible Ukrainian “attack.” Hungarians fear he plans a fake national security emergency or false-flag incident before the April 12 election apnews.com/article/hung...

NEW How Palantir captured the Ministry of Defence How a close read of public domain documents show how MoD was commercially colonised by Palantir By me, at FT www.ft.com/content/5207...

Such a good piece today from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com which shows that the declining graduate premium is very much a UK problem rather than a general (or inevevitable) consequence of more people going to uni www.ft.com/content/649d...

Who is briefing the PM on this? No prioritisation of the 62 recommendations in the Strategic Defence Review gov accepted in full, while the 2023 equipment plan has a £17 billion hole No world in which that doesn’t require substantial work on what really gets funded within 2.6% commitment or 3% aim

A new paper shows that less than 2 months of exposure to Twitter’s algorithmic feed significantly shifts people’s political views to the right. Moving from chronological feed to the algorithmic feed also increases engagement. This is one of the most concerning papers I’ve read in awhile.

Why didn’t MoD or DBT through the UK Space Agency place contracts as launch customers?

BBC's Arabic radio service in Lebanon closed after 85 years as part of a £28.5m savings drive. 'Just months later, in October 2023, the Russian state-owned Sputnik news agency took over the frequency. Its news bulletin opened with “This is Moscow”, replacing the previous “This is London” intro.' 🙄

BBC World Service and the British Council are core elements of UK influence overseas. In this moment of geopolitical upheaval they are needed more than ever. Appears reflective of wider spending issues. Could be Spring before we see a Defence Investment Plan, nearly 2 years after taking office.

Not a good idea

Per @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk: 'Reform has gobbled up a large chunk of the right-leaning youth, this is reallocation within an already shrinking bloc [...] rather than a far-right surge, the youth vote in the UK shows a remarkable opposite trend: a surge of progressive voting, including among young men'

An Inspector calls

it's really not over yet

A new national police force is the right move, but the case for merging local forces is much weaker @cassiarowland.bsky.social gives her verdict on the home secretary's proposals on police reform www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/poli...

Dozens of shadow fleet tankers have traversed the English Channel since promises of tougher stance. Danish Straits see about the same numbers. BBC is not clear on if they mean flagless or flagged tankers, but either way there are lots. Pic related, sanctioned tankers this minute.

457 British service personnel died in Afghanistan A sacrifice Trump betrayed in the Doha Agreement with the Taliban (UK and NATO not even in the room), and Biden carried through Should be clear enough by now that the British government must build capacity to defend its interests without the US

We need more publications from UK defence and intelligence sources in this style 2025 UK Strategic Defence Review said defence needed to reconnect with society as part of a national conversation on security Contrast MI5’s threat update with, for example, the equivalent Estonian agency’s yearbooks

Finnish MILINT: Russia’s ability to utilise vessels sailing in the Baltic Sea region for hybrid influencing remains significant. It will likely persist in its ambitions to damage the undersea infrastructure of the Baltic Sea. Download review here: sotilastiedustelukatsaus.fi/app/uploads/...

One reason I am gloomy about Britain’s ability to rise to this geopolitical moment is the sheer parochialism and unseriousness of much of its media. The Times, which used to be a serious paper, does not have a single comment piece today on the gravest international crisis in 80 years

Here is the full text of Carney's speech. Very much worth reading. paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...

Interwar British defence spending/what rearmament actually looks like. (Table from Peden’s Arms, Economics & British Strategy).

This is key point - why is UK falling over itself to gain US “security guarantees” for Ukraine? Given threats to Greenland, what are they worth? How many treaty commitments would US breach if it seized by force or coercion? Answer is UK and France shirking responsibilities for defence of Europe

In fairness to Ed, he did recognise on Wednesday that higher defence spending is likely to be required sooner rather than later Would be good to hear specifics of Lib Dems implied proposals to recapitalise the UK Armed Forces to allow simultaneous deployments to Estonia, Ukraine, and now Greenland

Do you like maps? These are good maps. www.geostrategy.org.uk/research/bri...

Disclosure: I am in favour of Britain sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine. Questions: let's say at a minimum we are looking at one armoured brigade on a rotation basis (5k x 4), that is a significant chunk of our medically deployable troops at last count. Will we redeploy resources?

Ed + others saying similar must also explain their implied plan (and costs) for British (European?) strategic autonomy UK remains critically reliant on the US for defence and intelligence, and in Ukraine No choice to acquiesce unless serious about replacing US forces in Europe tomorrow - not 2034!

The FIFA Peace Prize doesn't mean what it used to

The conclusion is spot on

When a group of defense insiders gathered in Whitehall, the home of the British government, last month to discuss how prepared the United Kingdom and its allies were for a war they believe could come in the next few years, their verdict was pretty grim: They are not. https://cnn.it/49bBhS2

“Top priority”.

More great journalism from London Centric Really encouraging to see increasing quality local media with rise of @millmedia.bsky.social @kentcurrent.news and many others

Positive news! Though that's double the budget for grassroots sport in England... which could really do with an uplift

Oslo and Copenhagen have separately, and on the same day, confirmed significant additions to their naval forces, both aimed at strengthening surveillance and protection of undersea infrastructure and strategic maritime areas in the North European waters. breakingdefense.com/2025/12/norw...

‘Autistic men in suits talking loudly and self-importantly at each other in jargon that nobody understands’ A decent summation of the defence pundit class, who delight in arcane language. As such, I've written a guide to the most annoying phrases out there. Let me know what I missed!

Way outside my area of expertise but this doesn’t paint an encouraging picture of the country’s underseas defence capability. open.substack.com/pub/robinjpo...

This may in part explain why France is particularly targeted by cyberattacks and disinformation: "In few years, both France and the UK — the only European nuclear weapon states — may be simultaneously under control of populist far right parties that are at best skeptical of European solidarity."

🚨SPIES, DAY TWO: Counter-Terror Police were reported to a suspicious man spying on Lulworth Firing Range - flying drones and fixing metal devices in trees. The call was made during the same time that a suspected Russian spy was near to the military base. inews.co.uk/news/suspect...

Quite breathtaking story - military grade drones at Dublin airport which flew on the path Zelensky's plane took. The drones reached the flight path of his plane exactly the time it should have been there, but just missed it because Zelensky arrived ahead of schedule:

It does not get mentioned enough, but Norway is one of the UK's most critical allies (and vice versa), especially for matters of territorial defence. Its good to see the relationship appears as strong as it is right now.

Thanks for the nod in London Playbook @politico.eu

This week on the blog, a deep dive (pardon the pun) on the Russian undersea threat to the UK’s home waters, and whether it is equipped to deal with it

Have started a Substack. Will mainly be concerned with security and foreign affairs with digressions into UK politics. To kick off, an account of Labour’s challenges on asylum, immigration, and its own leadership. First time having a go at writing outside my niche, so all feedback very welcome!

If individual politicians want to keep using it that’s one thing However is it appropriate for smorgasbord of public authorities - every arm of national and local govt + agencies (including 100s of police accounts!) - to remain given the proliferation of illegal hate speech and racism?

Germany on course to hit 3% of GDP on defence by 2029 - placing orders now Meanwhile in the UK we still have no clarity on spending plans to 2.6% in 2028, orders to industry on hold, plus £17bn hole remains from 2023 equipment plan And questions on plans to fulfil obligations under NATO article 3…

EU foreign ministers will be briefed tomorrow about a spate of sabotage attempts and airspace incursions that Russia’s neighbors say marks a “very dangerous phase of escalation” by the Kremlin, and one that endangers civilians.

One of Labour’s most egregious shortcomings for government has been the absence of a plan for adult social care

Nuts policy

The reaction to the Panorama edit has been nothing short of hysterical. Yes the BBC has some impartiality problems. But its biggest isn't the one you think. New piece from me. open.substack.com/pub/goodalla...

What a stitch-up www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...