6/6 🧵In @electoralstudies.bsky.social, @joshgoddard98.bsky.social studies influence of homeownerhip on voting behavior. Housing & election data from 14 countries. Results show homeowners are increasingly more likely to vote for center-right parties & renters for radical left parties. doi.org/qh8v

New from my phd student @joshgoddard98.bsky.social: he shows, using many election and panel studies across the advanced democracies, that housing status has replaced occupational class as a key predictor of voting. Class voting is now about assets, not income www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Really excited to share my new article published in @electoralstudies.bsky.social! 1/7

Great comparative research from @joshgoddard98.bsky.social . Highly intuitive from a UK pov, too:

Happy to see the first paper from @joshgoddard98.bsky.social ’s PhD project published today! 🙌 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... Class voting is alive and well, once we recognise the importance of asset (housing) ownership as well as labour market position as a class marker

Really excited to share my new article published in @electoralstudies.bsky.social! 1/7

That's the second consecutive morning where my first word of the day has been a swear word. Test cricket eh?

Several recent studies have found that politicians aren't very good at estimating public support for policies. But we have little idea about whether politicians are good at knowing which issues are more important to voters. Our new publication has a first go at answering this question rdcu.be/eQGm4

A chart from "The British General Election of 2024" (out soon!) which is relevant to this debate - here's what voters wanted (black line) and what they though Labour (red) and Cons (blue) would do on tax and spend during the campaign. Higher figures = "put them up". Some important lessons here 1/?

Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵

Stephen Fry, Olivia Colman, Edith Cavell, Admiral Nelson, Robert Kett, my nan, Ed Balls, Lynn Benfield, Jarrolds, the 16th centruy weaving trade, Aviva, Colmans mustard, Julian of Norwich...your boys took one hell of a beating

Natural order restored in East Anglia #itfc

This is thinly disguised homophobia by Farage. The same far-right figures who have spent years coming for my trans friends & colleagues are emboldened again against anything different from their "normal." Today and everyday I stand with the whole LGBTQIA+ community. Your struggle is my struggle.

Thoughts from me on the UK government's elections policy paper. In short: many good things, but several points don't go far enough, and there is one big mistake.

🚨New Research 🚨 Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE. Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters. 🧵⬇️ tinyurl.com/3m62exph

I refuse to accept this, will not recognise it, and shall therefore continue living in a reality where he plays for Ipswich Town

what an extraordinary talent Lauren James is, so mesmerising to watch

Setting myself targets like "work for 10 minutes and then you get to check the cricket score"

No chance today

the first week of Wimbledon is the pinnacle of the sporting calendar and I don't think anybody could convince me otherwise

Absolutely incredible turnout for Budapest Pride! So proud of all the organizers, including some old friends, who estimate hundreds of thousands— major embarrassment to Orban

The Green party polling regularly at 10%+ is such a fundamental transformation in the British party system and has gone completely under the radar

The return of an age old question: how to be productive when a test match is on?

In the same way that Burton Albion target Jurgen Klopp

I'm happy for Spurs but sad to see how much the UEFA cup has been degraded (what was that final?!). There was a time - 1981, to pick a date at random🤔 - when it was a respectable trophy

Guardiola typically graceless in defeat

I think Green/Lib Dem sentiment towards Labour was always going to be a crucial indicator to keep an eye on in this parliament. If these groups' attitudes towards Labour start to resemble Reform supporters' attitudes towards the Tories in 2024 (which they almost do now) that has major implications

As Jim puts it:

This is a brilliant article in many ways, but really insightful on the implications of wealth inequality/financialisation for the social democratic politics of growth. That the expansion of wealth and assets complicates the translation of GDP growth into "taxable capacity" is overlooked hugely

This chart is from @britishelectionstudy.com @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, me and Ed Fieldhouse. You can see that 2024 Reform voters mainly came from the Conservatives or UKIP in 2015. This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.

I've started a substack which I hope to use to share some of my thoughts and work about political sociology and voting behaviour. The first post concerns income-based voting patterns in British politics

Very happy to release a tool I build with the inspiration of @jonnelledge.bsky.social's thoughtful prompt about the east coast of England kafkaesque.blog/post/depriva... You can find it here! deprivation-site.vercel.app

👏👏👏💙🤍

I've started a substack which I hope to use to share some of my thoughts and work about political sociology and voting behaviour. The first post concerns income-based voting patterns in British politics

My annual post re. St George's day. A symbol of the Norman conquest. St Edmund should be our patron saint!

"The Supreme Court’s decision regarding trans women has made me ashamed of my profession – and ashamed of what our law has become." www.independent.co.uk/voices/trans...

I don't have much useful to say at the moment, but sending out love and solidarity to all those who are feeling scared after today's ruling 🏳️‍⚧️

As a good East Anglian I'm intrigued by just how Liberal EA was in the 19th century (see 1885 and 1892 election maps). Unlike the West Country though, this did not persist far into the 20th. Why did East Anglia become more like the rest of the south in its (Tory) voting behaviour ?

It appears that Ipswich Town winning has collapsed the global trade system

I see Chris Philp is now repeating Matt Goodwin's deliberate lie. The correct figure is 17%, and most of those are long-standing residents (and in many cases will have British spouses/children).

AfD overwhelmingly won votes from non-voters and the centre-right. This is a standard pattern. It is a myth that the radical right are mainly winning disaffected centre-left voters.

StopTB has a new report estimating the impact of the foreign aid freeze. It's useful to understand the huge impact that global health efforts have everyday, and worrying. Some highlights... 🧵

Public investment in social housing will be crucial over the coming Parliament to reverse decades of chronic under-investment. Read more ➡️ https://buff.ly/4jdDb8W

The left map shows the parts of Germany with the highest percentage of Syrian refugees. The right map shows public support for the anti-migrant AfD. Something to keep in mind when reading stories that posit a direct link between refugee numbers and support for the far-right.

This is ghoulish from Labour. Using people's suffering to try and appease Reform, which is something no-one will ever go far enough for. Labour has the potential to actually be doing something to reduce hostility. Instead they are stoking anti-migrant attitudes just like the Conservatives did.

Powerful front page from L'Humanité on Jean Marie Le Pen: 'His Profession Was Hatred'. The dagger pictured was recovered at the scene of the brutal torture and murder of Ahmed Moulay in Algiers in 1957. One of multiple pieces of evidence showing Le Pen was a torturer.

Here's an alternative look at Britain's current voting intention: 6 in 10 of today's Reform UK voters come from the Boris Johnson block of Conservative voters, which has completely splintered since 2019.

suffolk is looking particularly nice this morning

Incredibly proud to share that our paper with @simonecremaschi.bsky.social , @paularettl.bsky.social and @catherinedevries.bsky.social has been published in @ajpseditor.bsky.social! We argue and empirically show that reduced access to public services fosters far-right support in Italy. 👇

New paper published @ajpseditor.bsky.social Showing that reduced access to public services fuelled far right support in 🇮🇹 Existing work on far right highlights globalization & migration grievances, what about people’s experiences with the state? We use 🇮🇹 reform to find out shorturl.at/zQ8bJ