On the street, it's got a dozen names. Some call 'em White Devils. Simple, classic. Some cats call 'em The Levelers, 'cause they take you from a 10 on the pain scale down to a zero. Smooths you right out. You call it Tylenol. I call it death.

please, think about the damage you might cause before sending an invoice

Today's blog post is a bit niche, but it's important. It seems like federal redistribution maps are drawn with too much consideration of not moving voters, and they are doing it more than they did in the past. #auspol

Fifty years ago, Papua New Guinea became independent from Australia. The speech Gough Whitlam delivered on that day reminds us both of Australia's history as an empire, and how thoroughly the nation has forgotten its colonial past and the responsibilities which grow from it.

I've called the Kiama by-election for Labor. They haven't picked up a primary vote swing but a more fragmented opposition and a very high rate of exhaustion means they will comfortably win the 2PP count. #nswpol

I'll be live-blogging the results of the Kiama by-election night, here: www.tallyroom.com.au/61914 #nswpol

I was on ABC Radio Sydney this afternoon with @domknight.bsky.social discussing tomorrow's Kiama by-election. Here's a short clip #nswpol

In another clip from yesterday's podcast, I run through the seats that would be most affected if the LNP's proposed redistribution was adopted #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/61911

A couple down, now only maybe 12(?) months of Qld state redistribution news to go! I dove into public consultation stage 1/4 (initial party & interested ppl’s proposals) recently here: www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/que... But as this chat w Ben suggests, there’s plenty more to come…

I was joined by @mattdennien.bsky.social for this week's podcast, discussing the Queensland state redistribution. In this clip we discuss the LNP's proposal to break the city of Bundaberg in half, flipping the seat from Labor to LNP. #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/61911

Really interesting and detailed post from @kevinbonham.bsky.social explaining how Labor turned a 35% primary vote into 63% of seats in the House. It's mostly explained single-member electorates favouring major parties, and giving a winners' bonus to the winning major party, not preference flows.

We're watching old episodes of Lego Masters on 9Now and they keep running ads for the Relics Lego exhibition at the Australian Museum (a good exhibition!) and keep saying "closing soon" and "final weeks" for something that doesn't close until January. Seems pretty misleading!

The federal government has again raised the prospect of expanding the parliament. In today's post I take a look at how long redistributions take, and how they take longer now than they did in 1984, so if they want to move on parliamentary expansion they need to do it asap.

Is Tasmania ungovernable or just badly governed? #AUListen #DemocracySausage 🎙 @markgkenny.bsky.social & @marijataflaga.bsky.social are joined by A/Prof Kate Crowley & @benraue.com ‬to discuss Tasmania’s perpetual political instability in the wash-up from July’s election. bit.ly/41VTIYf.

NEW SUBMISSION CATEGORY ADDED! AJPS invites Reform Notes from practitioners and/or academics that set out proposed innovations about (or relevant to) aspects of Australian politics practice - e.g. proposals for or modifications to existing political institutions, procedures, laws and practices 1/4

It's not clear if there will be a by-election in Mount Gambier, or if the seat will just lay vacant until March 2026, but I've updated and unlocked my seat profile for Mt Gambier, which I'll convert to a by-election guide if needed #sapol

Quite genuinely and enthusiastically cheering for a draw in #afllionshawks. A Giants top 4 finish is still possible! www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJta...

So if the Giants and Suns both win their last games (which seems likely), the Suns first ever final will be at the Showground against GWS.

I've launched my guide to the 2026 Victorian state election. The guide features profiles of all 88 lower house races and the 8 upper house regions. The full guide is available to those who sign up on Patreon for $8 or more per month.

GPT-5 regularly asks you why you are not citing its work. GPT-5 always believes your estimator is biased. GPT-5 has more of a comment than a question. Sometimes GPT-5 tells you stories about grad school and expresses regret about getting a PhD. GPT-5's mom wonders when it will start making money.

Gallagher index (disproportionality) for Danish parliamentary elections. Guess when they stopped using single-member electorates? @benraue.com

With Gareth Ward's resignation, there will need to be a by-election for his seat of Kiama on the NSW south coast. I've now published my guide to that by-election #nswpol

Today's blog post is probably my favourite bit of analysis I can do for Hare-Clark elections - mapping out the relative support of candidates within the same party in an electorate #politas #tasvotes

Australia's preferential voting system is often praised, and for good reason. But in terms of reflecting overall votes cast it's not much better than first past the post. My look at how our winner-takes-all voting system skews election outcomes for @australiainstitute.org.au 👇 #auspol

Today's blog post explores how the preference counts played out in Bass and Clark, where candidates came from behind to win #tasvotes #politas

George Razay has been elected in Bass, just narrowly outpolling the second and third Labor candidates. Jess Greene wins the seventh seat, with Geoff Lyons missing out by a few hundred votes. Final seat count: -14 Liberal -10 Labor -5 Greens -1 Shooters -5 Independents

Good work Google. Sure, there has literally never been a game of Aussie rules football played at that stadium, and it's entirely the wrong shape, but it'll do.

Distributions of preferences have commences in Tasmania, so I have started a live blog here: www.tallyroom.com.au/60961 #politas #tasvotes

The AEC's estimate of 2PP in Bradfield were flawed, and this flows on to the statewide and national 2PP. There were also some issues with estimates of pre-election 2CP margins in non-classic seats producing odd swings. But I've now produced results files with corrected figures! #ausvotes #auspol

Is it possible that Labor, after polling a record low vote and winning barely a quarter of seats, could form government? Or could they have no choice but to form government? Ben discussed this topic with @cmonnox.bsky.social and @kevinbonham.bsky.social last week on the podcast #politas #tasvotes

Today's blog post previews the coming federal redistributions in QLD, SA, TAS & ACT. It seems certain that no state will have a change in their seat entitlement in the House of Representatives next year, so the only changes will be due to 7 years passing since the last redistribution. #auspol

For this week's podcast with Chris Monnox and Kevin Bonham, we discuss the tendency in Tasmanian elections for anti-hung parliament voters to swing behind whoever can win a majority, and whether it had an effect in 2025. #tasvotes #politas

Last Friday (day before the election) I did an interview with ABC Radio Hobart about Votes at 16. Take a listen. Is this a good way to share radio interviews? Trying a new thing.

So the ending of same-day enrolment in NZ is justified to speed up the declaration of the results. But this wouldn’t be necessary if NZ just copied something we do in Australia.

On this week's podcast with Chris Monnox and Kevin Bonham, Ben discussed the inclusion of former federal MPs and other big names who aren't sitting state MPs on the major party tickets in the Tasmanian election, and how it will likely push out some incumbent MPs. #tasvotes www.tallyroom.com.au/60946

I've started putting up short videos from my podcasts on Instagram, here's the latest one with @kevinbonham.bsky.social Follow thetallyroom on Instagram for more.

It's extremely overconfident to say Tasmania will never have majority government again. A uniform swing to the Liberals of maybe 4% from this year's results could do it. pulsetasmania.com.au/news/tasmani... #politas

Me and @cmonnox.bsky.social and and @benraue.com re Tasmanian Election 2025 - results and government formation www.tallyroom.com.au/60946 #politas

Today's blog post breaks down the state of the close races in the five Tasmanian electorates. It's more complicated than just looking at the totals for each party. #politas #tasvotes

My assessment of the Tasmanian election results is up now www.tallyroom.com.au/60934 #tasvotes

I'll be liveblogging the results of the Tasmanian state election tonight at the Tally Room website: www.tallyroom.com.au/60895 #politas #tasvotes

Right now the Giants are on 4-0-24 and Essendon are on 0-8-8. I wonder how far a game has gone on with one team only scoring goals and the other only scoring behinds?

Not to be the "everything is electoral systems" guy, but this is a feature of the "pick 10" model triple j uses. The average voter in the average election would struggle to name 10 so they fill it out with what they remember (remember Big Jet Plane?) while supervoters have to vote strategically

For today's podcast, I was joined by @pollbludger.bsky.social to go through each of five electorates in the Tasmanian state election, and also discuss the latest polls #politas #tasvotes

The Office of Local Government makes this claim with absolutely no evidence. Countbacks are very stable, there is not one case where a grouped councillor wasn't replaced by a member of the same group (when there was one eligible). And if there was a change, it would reflect voters' preferences.

As more journalists are driven out of their jobs, I keep hearing this drumbeat of "it's ok -- they can start their own newsletter or publication." Some can. But becoming your own business is a huge job, and will eliminate many talented reporters from the public sphere. Here's why. (1/5)

A whole lot of organizations and politicians do not understand just how minimal their 'reach' truly is on X. It's not what Twitter was. You are shouting at bots and right-wingers. Nobody else sees what you do there. Daily users are down, time on site is down, and the algorithm is hostile to you.

The civics nerds have had their say but this is unequivocal proof we need to demerge inner west council

You can rationalize it however you want but staying on twitter is a terrible choice. It is not the “town square.” It is the world’s disease-ridden dump. You don’t need to be there to think critically or write relevantly or stay abreast of current events.