The Welsh Senedd has a new electoral system; replacing MMP with low-magnitude closed list PR (with DM=6), ie. bang in the middle of the Carey-Hix “sweet spot” 😉 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Se...

Is it normal now for banks to not give you the option of exporting your data as a CSV? Our bank just switched to a new system without that option.

Today's blog post shows a new pendulum following the South Australian election, but also looks at seats where a different 2CP was possible, and includes graphs showing how 3CP relates to who wins in each seat. www.tallyroom.com.au/64680 #sapol

There are now 10 toilets in Space International Space Station: 4 Crew Dragon Docked at ISS: 1 Soyuz Docked at ISS: 1 Tiangong Space Station: 2 Shenzhou Docked at TSS: 1 Artemis II on way around Moon: 1 This will be the first time a toilet has left low earth orbit!

In the seat of Finniss, independent Lou Nicholson has won despite coming fourth on primary votes. Nicholson was 108 votes behind Labor on the primary vote, 18.5% to 18.1%. On the 4CP, it was: -Lib 28.7% -Ind 25.4% -ON 24.3% -ALP 21.6% On the 3CP it was: -IND 40.4% -LIB 32.6% -ON 26.9%

I've got a blog post up today looking at the shape of the vote in South Australia - in particular it shows how Labor managed such an efficient vote, allowing them to win such a huge number of seats on a relatively low vote www.tallyroom.com.au/64667

The redistribution committee's draft changes to South Australia's ten federal electorates has dropped this morning, and I've finished my analysis at the Tally Room. Here's a quick thread summarising some changes www.tallyroom.com.au/64649

The Lamestream newsletter has excellent coverage of the ABC strike today, worth signing up for www.lamestream.com.au/express-your...

I've got a new blog post, which runs through all the data we've gained from the preference counts conducted in South Australia in the last two days, and then I go through a few uncalled races and call some of them. www.tallyroom.com.au/64645 #sapol

Hey, it worked for Israel!

Here's my latest podcast, about Saturday's amazing election result, with Rob Manwaring www.tallyroom.com.au/64642 #sapol

Here is my analysis this morning after last night's election result. It includes some statistics on how the parties performed, and analysis of the close races. #sapol

Join me for the Tally Room live on YouTube tonight from 6:30pm Adelaide time: www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCv6... #sapol

📚 BOOK LAUNCH 📚 What really happened in the 2025 election? Hosted by renowned journalist Nick Bryant, join leading experts for the launch of 'Landslide: The 2025 Australian Federal Election'. 🗓️ 16 April ⏰ 6 pm 📍National Library of Australia Register 👇 www.library.gov.au/whats-on/eve...

It’s Ride2School Day today. My son’s school encouraged kids to ride to school and decorate their bikes. We all rode to school this morning, and the school hall was converted into a parking lot for bikes and scooters.

I cannot work out how to just post a slideshow of a few photos on Instagram anymore - they keep turning it into a video. Baffling.

I’m very excited to announce that this Saturday night I’ll be doing my first election night livestream for the SA state election. www.tallyroom.com.au/64630

Australia’s 2025 election upended politics. Labor’s landslide, the Liberals’ collapse and a surging non-major vote are examined through campaigns, demographics, social media, AI, misinformation and the 'Trump effect' in this authoritative illustrated book. Get your copy doi.org/10.22459/L.2...

I've got a piece in the Guardian today summing up the South Australian election #sapol

I've also added a page containing my appearance on @benraue.com's excellent podcast, The Tally Room, where we and Intifar Chowdhury discussed the ongoing major threads of this upcoming election. australianelectionguides.wordpress.com/election-pre... My full predictions will be out later this week!

Today's podcast is with @joshsunman.bsky.social about this weekend's South Australian state election. We go through the seats to watch and how preference counting might get more complicated #sapol

If you plan a transit trip, navigation apps estimate time spent waiting for the bus/train & walking from a station to your destination. But for drivers, apps assume zero minutes spent looking for parking and then walking, as though everyone quickly finds an ideally convenient spot. Seems ...off.

NEW VIDEO: Independent election analyst Ben Raue has spoken 6 News to preview South Australia's election, looking at the possibility of One Nation winning lower house seats and the lessons learnt from SA-BEST's 2018 campaign WATCH: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nw-V...

There are some very loud planes flying over the Canberra city centre, any idea what is going on?

The draft redistribution of the ACT's three federal seats was published this morning and I have completed my analysis. Voters were swapped in both directions on the Canberra-Bean and Canberra-Fenner borders, but it has minimal impact on margins. #auspol www.tallyroom.com.au/64607

What is “the E-Bike Effect?” “Those who bought e-bikes increased their average daily bicycle use from 2.1km (1.3 miles) to 9.2km (5.7 miles), a 340% increase. The e-bike share of all their transportation increased dramatically too; from 17% to 49%.” Fewer car trips. Via @lloydalter.bsky.social

The Queensland draft redistribution was published late this afternoon. Unfortunately it was bad timing for a quick response, but I've now published my margin estimates. LNP gain 2 seats, and increase uniform swing needed for them to lose majority from 1.9% to 2.9%. #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/64578

We’re Training Students To Write Worse To Prove They’re Not Robots, And It’s Pushing Them To Use More AI About a year and a half ago, I wrote about my kid's experience with an AI checker tool that was pre-installed on a school-issued Chromebook. The assignment had been to write an essay about Kurt…

Iranian govt: everything bad is the fault of the USA! Iranian resistance: no it isn't, the current govt sucks and needs to go * US bombs Iranian cities * Iranian govt: the bombing is the fault of the USA! Iranian resistance: ooh you've got us there

Suburban Sprawl may seem cheap, but even the costs we CAN count are far too high, and we ALL pay them. HT Smart Prosperity Institute #UrbanTruth institute.smartprosperity.ca/library/publ...

Tasmania's draft redistribution is due out later this morning. These new boundaries will cover both federal and state elections in the island state. I've started a liveblog where I'll post analysis when I have something to say. #politas #auspol

I’ve been pushing the amalgamation like for year but not for fiscal reasons (which has mixed at best evidence) but for democratic reasons. Tiny wards in tiny councils create an anti-growth incentive by pushing lower wage people (usually renters) who might work or want to live there further afield.

I am confident that Liberal, One Nation and Greens will all nominate a full slate of 47 candidates in SA, but it's interesting that right now ON has a more complete list than the Liberals. www.tallyroom.com.au/64449

It looks like Labor is getting ready to announce plans to expand the size of the federal Parliament, for only the third time in the history of the Australian federation, according to the SMH www.theage.com.au/politics/fed...

Today's podcast features @joshgoddard98.bsky.social and @shaunratcliff.bsky.social and is about how your position in the housing market (and your asset wealth) is becoming a more significant determinant of how you vote. www.tallyroom.com.au/64384

The problem here is knowing who those top two are. There's going to be enormous numbers of seats where you can't tell for sure.

s Farrer more traditionally a Liberal or National seat? I break down the last Liberal versus National contest in 2001 by local government area. But boundary changes since have added a big slice of National voting territory from the Riverina. antonygreen.com.au/farrer-a-lib...

My latest post is a big drop of new data. For the first time I publish two-party preferred preference data in so-called Non-Classic divisions, including high profile Independents. Data for the 2019, 2022 and 2025 elections. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-inde...

I’ve taken my 2028 guide to Farrer and updated it for the upcoming by-election which will likely pit Liberal against National and One Nation. Check it out #auspol

Today I've published two by-election guides for upcoming by-elections: for the NT seat of Nightcliff and for the mayoralty of Newcastle. Both incumbents announced their resignations for health reasons yesterday. #ntpol #nswpol

Today's post is my case for crafting a new single-member electoral system which takes a bit from optional preferential voting and a bit from compulsory preferential voting, and why it could work now in Queensland #auspol #qldpol

In which @davidnir.com tells everyone "don't be a 'margin bro'" when it comes to looking at polling toplines (I will be stealing this): www.gelliottmorris.com/p/yes-democr...

In today's post, I make the case that neither major party can rely on a consistent self-interested advantage from OPV or CPV, but rather that self-interest will be different in different seats, and over time. #qldpol

Pollsters should not be referring to 1pt differences between polls as "tiny changes". It is not a change in the same way there's no such thing as a 2pt poll lead. It's hard enough to encourage the media to follow basic reporting practices without those in the industry ignoring them too.

I have published my guide to the upcoming Nepean by-election in Victoria, you can check it out here #springst

Today's podcast previews this weekend's Japanese general election with Donna Weeks, @psephy.bsky.social

With seven weeks to go until the South Australian election, I have updated my candidate lists and unlocked the election guide #sapol

Good to see Fox&Hedgehog are now Australian Polling Council members, joining Pyxis, YouGov, DemosAU and Essential among the usual federal polls that are.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/01/poll... Poll Roundup: What Do We Do With A Split Coalition ... Or A Rampant One Nation?

The podcast is back for 2026. Yesterday I interviewed @georgehasanakos.bsky.social from DemosAU about the surge in support for One Nation, the split in the Coalition, and how pollsters will deal with these challenges #auspol