Today's blog post looks at the first time the federal parliament was expanded in 1948 - how the pendulum looked before and after the change, and where the marginal seats were located #auspol www.tallyroom.com.au/63613

my take on this growing "roblox should be in the teen social media ban" discourse is that this is what happens when a government tells the electorate/the world that the way to deal with online harms is to ban something for kids, and let everyone else suffer.

I'll obviously write a more fulsome submission with my colleagues at @abundanthousing.org.au but I'm gonna also write a personal submission responding to (e) with my Most Annoying Opinion Yet: The Electoral Systems Theory of Political NIMBYism: how single member districts make NIMBYs kingmakers

If you are posting on or engaging with content on X, you are working as a volunteer laborer helping this specific man earn money and political influence. Any person, group or organisation that is still there and helping keep you there: you have to make them get out, not give them reason to stay

The by-election for the Queensland state seat of Hinchinbrook will be held on November 29. Former Katter MP Nick Dametto held it on a 13.2 per cent margin but resigned to run for mayor of Townsville. Premier David Crisafulli announced the election date today in a campaign video. #qldvotes

It's probably over two years until the next federal election, but I've decided to launch the first part of my federal election guide. It features profiles of 102 House seats in NSW, VIC, WA and NT, and all eight Senate guides. #auspol www.tallyroom.com.au/63541

I've been getting back into the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy series after many years, and the most relatable part is how everyday objects like doors and elevators have been imbued with artificial intelligence and it just makes them obnoxious and frustrating to use and everyone hates it.

Yep I was told this by the AEC media team.

Today's blog post is again about the 1984 election - how many MPs jumped ship to safer seats? And how different was the swing in seats with sitting Labor MPs or without any sitting MP? #auspol www.tallyroom.com.au/63522

Today's blog post looks back at the 1984 parliamentary expansion - how did it change the shape of the pendulum, and how did it change where marginal seats were located? www.tallyroom.com.au/63515 #auspol

Anyone done this bit yet

Today's blog post looks back at the 1984 parliamentary expansion - how did it change the shape of the pendulum, and how did it change where marginal seats were located? www.tallyroom.com.au/63515 #auspol

Learned that an anonymous outside expert on submersibles did an interview with the OceanGate Titan investigation, and they released a transcript, with all the names redacted. The first line of his first answer? "I'm sure you're familiar with my film Titanic."

Just in time for reference if you're still mulling over registering a political party to contest the election.

I've published my full guide to the 2027 NSW state election. Yes, it's a while away, but if you're trying to wrap your head around how it might go, you'll find it useful. www.tallyroom.com.au/62772 #nswpol

New Zealand has undergone a redistribution of their electorate boundaries, and I thought I would summarise the changes and estimate the vote margins for the new seats. #nzpol www.tallyroom.com.au/62140

I'm voting in UQ's Senate election today for the three alumni seats and it's a masterclass in terrible electoral design. For one it uses the terrible perversion that is the FPTP method of election multiple members in a seat.

In response to an error-riddled op-ed from George Brandis yesterday, I’ve written a post about who would benefit from an expanded parliament. www.tallyroom.com.au/62130

This op-ed from George Brandis is full of holes and I don't know how The Age let it through. -He claims that "Because most population growth is in city electorates", the ALP would gain most from a House expansion, even though the population growth benefits parties who do well in cities regardless.

Besides how insulting this is to the hardworking election crew, or how wrong the international comparison is, it ignores a very simple fix: NZ does not have a live progress count after election night. This is why Australian counts feel faster even though they often aren't; we can see results firm up

On the street, it's got a dozen names. Some call 'em White Devils. Simple, classic. Some cats call 'em The Levelers, 'cause they take you from a 10 on the pain scale down to a zero. Smooths you right out. You call it Tylenol. I call it death.

please, think about the damage you might cause before sending an invoice

Today's blog post is a bit niche, but it's important. It seems like federal redistribution maps are drawn with too much consideration of not moving voters, and they are doing it more than they did in the past. #auspol

Fifty years ago, Papua New Guinea became independent from Australia. The speech Gough Whitlam delivered on that day reminds us both of Australia's history as an empire, and how thoroughly the nation has forgotten its colonial past and the responsibilities which grow from it.

I've called the Kiama by-election for Labor. They haven't picked up a primary vote swing but a more fragmented opposition and a very high rate of exhaustion means they will comfortably win the 2PP count. #nswpol

I'll be live-blogging the results of the Kiama by-election night, here: www.tallyroom.com.au/61914 #nswpol

I was on ABC Radio Sydney this afternoon with @domknight.bsky.social discussing tomorrow's Kiama by-election. Here's a short clip #nswpol

In another clip from yesterday's podcast, I run through the seats that would be most affected if the LNP's proposed redistribution was adopted #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/61911

A couple down, now only maybe 12(?) months of Qld state redistribution news to go! I dove into public consultation stage 1/4 (initial party & interested ppl’s proposals) recently here: www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/que... But as this chat w Ben suggests, there’s plenty more to come…

I was joined by @mattdennien.bsky.social for this week's podcast, discussing the Queensland state redistribution. In this clip we discuss the LNP's proposal to break the city of Bundaberg in half, flipping the seat from Labor to LNP. #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/61911

Really interesting and detailed post from @kevinbonham.bsky.social explaining how Labor turned a 35% primary vote into 63% of seats in the House. It's mostly explained single-member electorates favouring major parties, and giving a winners' bonus to the winning major party, not preference flows.

We're watching old episodes of Lego Masters on 9Now and they keep running ads for the Relics Lego exhibition at the Australian Museum (a good exhibition!) and keep saying "closing soon" and "final weeks" for something that doesn't close until January. Seems pretty misleading!

The federal government has again raised the prospect of expanding the parliament. In today's post I take a look at how long redistributions take, and how they take longer now than they did in 1984, so if they want to move on parliamentary expansion they need to do it asap.

Is Tasmania ungovernable or just badly governed? #AUListen #DemocracySausage 🎙 @markgkenny.bsky.social & @marijataflaga.bsky.social are joined by A/Prof Kate Crowley & @benraue.com ‬to discuss Tasmania’s perpetual political instability in the wash-up from July’s election. bit.ly/41VTIYf.

NEW SUBMISSION CATEGORY ADDED! AJPS invites Reform Notes from practitioners and/or academics that set out proposed innovations about (or relevant to) aspects of Australian politics practice - e.g. proposals for or modifications to existing political institutions, procedures, laws and practices 1/4

It's not clear if there will be a by-election in Mount Gambier, or if the seat will just lay vacant until March 2026, but I've updated and unlocked my seat profile for Mt Gambier, which I'll convert to a by-election guide if needed #sapol

Quite genuinely and enthusiastically cheering for a draw in #afllionshawks. A Giants top 4 finish is still possible! www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJta...

So if the Giants and Suns both win their last games (which seems likely), the Suns first ever final will be at the Showground against GWS.

I've launched my guide to the 2026 Victorian state election. The guide features profiles of all 88 lower house races and the 8 upper house regions. The full guide is available to those who sign up on Patreon for $8 or more per month.

GPT-5 regularly asks you why you are not citing its work. GPT-5 always believes your estimator is biased. GPT-5 has more of a comment than a question. Sometimes GPT-5 tells you stories about grad school and expresses regret about getting a PhD. GPT-5's mom wonders when it will start making money.

Gallagher index (disproportionality) for Danish parliamentary elections. Guess when they stopped using single-member electorates? @benraue.com

With Gareth Ward's resignation, there will need to be a by-election for his seat of Kiama on the NSW south coast. I've now published my guide to that by-election #nswpol

Today's blog post is probably my favourite bit of analysis I can do for Hare-Clark elections - mapping out the relative support of candidates within the same party in an electorate #politas #tasvotes

Australia's preferential voting system is often praised, and for good reason. But in terms of reflecting overall votes cast it's not much better than first past the post. My look at how our winner-takes-all voting system skews election outcomes for @australiainstitute.org.au 👇 #auspol

Today's blog post explores how the preference counts played out in Bass and Clark, where candidates came from behind to win #tasvotes #politas

George Razay has been elected in Bass, just narrowly outpolling the second and third Labor candidates. Jess Greene wins the seventh seat, with Geoff Lyons missing out by a few hundred votes. Final seat count: -14 Liberal -10 Labor -5 Greens -1 Shooters -5 Independents

Good work Google. Sure, there has literally never been a game of Aussie rules football played at that stadium, and it's entirely the wrong shape, but it'll do.