I spoke to Marija Taflaga and @markgkenny.bsky.social on ANU's Democracy Sausage podcast about our polling and what it means for Australian politics Listen here: reporter.anu.edu.au/all-stories/...

Listen to the latest episode of ANU's Democracy Sausage podcast, where I talk to Marija and Mark about the January AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll, and the potential of a realignment of the Australian party system

How has the preferential voting system masked the decline of the major parties and why is the decline worse for the Liberals and Nationals? 🗳️ #AUListen #DemocracySausage 🎙️ @shaunratcliff.bsky.social @marijataflaga.bsky.social @markgkenny.bsky.social 👉 ausi.anu.edu.au/news/democra...

Listen to the latest episode of ANU's Democracy Sausage podcast, where I talk to Marija and Mark about the January AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll, and the potential of a realignment of the Australian party system

The January AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out now. It shows that since December, the vote share of the former Coalition parties has collapsed further. The Liberal, LNP and National vote is less than half of their pre-election high.

The January AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out now. It shows that since December, the vote share of the former Coalition parties has collapsed further. The Liberal, LNP and National vote is less than half of their pre-election high.

Taiwan erasure

Just built my own media monitor service in Claude. It searches a set of news outlets for several topics I've specified and emails it to me three times per day. This is going to disrupt a few businesses...

Wanna see real-life miracles? Fund scientific research. A team of US scientists just cured Alzheimer’s in mice — and there is now hope that the disease can be reversed in humans. futurism.com/health-medic...

The latest AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out, this time for NSW state vote intention If a NSW state election were held now, Labor would win in a landslide (2pp 57% to Labor) www.afr.com/politics/swi...

The latest AFR/ RedBridge/ Accent Research poll is now out. Based on a sample nearly 5,000 Australian voters collected over November, shows that consistent with our previous poll, 18% of voters would give One Nation their first preference if an election were held today

The latest AFR/ RedBridge/ Accent Research poll is now out. Based on a sample nearly 5,000 Australian voters collected over November, shows that consistent with our previous poll, 18% of voters would give One Nation their first preference if an election were held today

The November AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out. The big story is the ongoing decline of the Coalition primary vote, which is down 5 points since Oct, to 24%, 8 points lower than the May election

The November AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out. The big story is the ongoing decline of the Coalition primary vote, which is down 5 points since Oct, to 24%, 8 points lower than the May election

The 1st publication from the 2025 Cooperative Election survey was launched yesterday prepared by the Macquarie Housing & Urban Research Centre, this report explores perceptions of housing affordability and perceived solutions (thread)

Join us on Wednesday for a free webinar hosted by Macquarie Uni where researchers will present the fascinating insights they have drawn from data collected by Accent Research showing how voters' demographics, backgrounds and economic interests shape housing politics in Australia

Shaun Wilson in the @theconversation.com using data from Accent Research surveys to answer the question "Why has support for One Nation surged since the 2025 federal election?" theconversation.com/why-has-supp...

Join us for a free webinar hosted by Macquarie University where researchers will present the fascinating insights they have drawn from data collected by Accent Research at the 2025 federal election showing how voters' demographics, backgrounds and economic interests shape housing politics

How did #Housing shape the 2025 #auspol Election? Come to our free webinar. We analyse new data to see how generation, tenure and voting shape housing politics With @emmabaker.bsky.social @shaunratcliff.bsky.social and @everybodyshome.bsky.social Maiy Azize events.humanitix.com/webinar-on-h...

What happened at the 2025 election? When did the race turn in Labor's favour, and what do the results mean for Australian politics in the future? Recently, I had the pleasure of joining Marija Taflaga and @markgkenny.bsky.social to answers these questions, and more ausi.anu.edu.au/news/democra...

New ep of #DemocracySausage is out! 🎙️ @shaunratcliff.bsky.social joins @markgkenny.bsky.social & @marijataflaga.bsky.social to unpack the latest election numbers and what they reveal about the state of our democracy. Don’t miss this one! #auspol 🎧 #AUListen bit.ly/4kwNcNQ.

If you're looking for something different in your election coverage tonight, join Simon Welsh and me on SBS

I and some of my fellow political scientists and election watchers (including the always insightful @benraue.com) tried to help our American friends understand the 2025 Australian federal election by speaking to Victoria Kim at the New York Times Read the story here: www.nytimes.com/2025/05/02/w...

I spoke to @charischang.bsky.social at SBS News about some of the key seats to watch on election day www.sbs.com.au/news/article...

I'm a bit late posting this, but I was quoted in this very comprehensive piece about generational politics in the Age/SMH by Angus Holland www.smh.com.au/national/gen...

Last week I joined Kos Samaras, Jessica Elgood and Tom Connell at the National Press Club of Australia to discuss “Where the 2025 election will be won (and lost)” This was a really interesting panel that covered a lot of ground. You can watch the address here: youtu.be/viVN6dsNZMo?...

Last week I joined Kos Samaras, Jessica Elgood and Tom Connell at the National Press Club of Australia to discuss “Where the 2025 election will be won (and lost)” This was a really interesting panel that covered a lot of ground. You can watch the address here: youtu.be/viVN6dsNZMo?...

This humble little triangle explains the big shift in how we vote over 50 years. My latest: www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04...

Looking forward to joining Kos Samaras and Jessica Elgood at the National Press Club today to discuss the 2025 federal election, polling, and where the battleground seats are You should be able to watch on the ABC and Sky News at 12:30

Looking forward to joining Kos Samaras and Jessica Elgood at the National Press Club today to discuss the 2025 federal election, polling, and where the battleground seats are You should be able to watch on the ABC and Sky News at 12:30

At the beginning of the 2025 federal election campaign, the latest Accent Research | RedBridge MRP estimates that while a minority government still looks to be the most likely outcome, Labor are the favourites, and are within reach of a parliamentary majority

I had the pleasure of talking to Marija and @markgkenny.bsky.social for the latest ep of Democracy Sausage, about our recent polling We discussed how different groups are voting, the Coalition's weakness on economic policy & the political geography of the election ausi.anu.edu.au/news/democra...

I had the pleasure of talking to Marija and @markgkenny.bsky.social for the latest ep of Democracy Sausage, about our recent polling We discussed how different groups are voting, the Coalition's weakness on economic policy & the political geography of the election ausi.anu.edu.au/news/democra...

I've been really happy with how News has been willing to represent the uncertainty in sampling (which is the heart of opinion polling). This is the first time I am aware of a major Australian media outlet doing this We're in the field now with more polling. Watch this space

ICYMI: Tomorrow night I'll be discussing #housing and the #auspol election at Sydney uni - there'll be politics, data and time for discussion

interested in research on Australian politics, housing and inequality? Join us for a seminar on: The Housing Affordability Crisis, Intergenerational Inequality, and the 2025 Federal Election hosted by the University of Sydney and Macquarie, this Thursday Details below, link in next post

Looking forward to discussing #housing, intergenerational equity and the upcoming #auspol #election on March 27 with the amazing Nicole Gurran and @shaunratcliff.bsky.social. Perfect first outing with Macquarie's Centre for Housing and Urban Research events.humanitix.com/the-housing-...

Ah, political advice from Joel ("$250000 a year is not wealthy") Fitzgibbon If Labor agreed to this and backed a Coalition minority govt that pushed through mostly unpopular reforms (regardless of their merit) it would destroy the party

You can listen to the podcast here reporter.anu.edu.au/all-stories/...

What is polling saying about public opinion in the lead up for the federal election? I joined Marija Taflaga and @markgkenny.bsky.social on the Democracy Sausage podcast to answer these questions (and plugged our latest tracking poll)

What is polling saying about public opinion in the lead up for the federal election? I joined Marija Taflaga and @markgkenny.bsky.social on the Democracy Sausage podcast to answer these questions (and plugged our latest tracking poll)

As another Trump-induced market crisis unfolds from tariffs, it's time we ask "What's the Matter with Billionaires?" I've run the numbers. Billionaires do better under Dems. So why do billionaires keep supporting GOP policies against their economic interests? See my latest piece on why. (TLDR 🧵⬇️)

It should be noted that these results are a snapshot of public opinion at a point in time, not a prediction. In particular, vote intention (especially among Labor voters) remains soft, which could add some volatility to support over the next few months.

They also show that in wave 2 of the track, a slightly larger share of voters believed Australia is heading in the right direction

If the shift is real, it’s almost certainly the result of the 25 basis point cut in interest rates by the Reserve Bank. Voters also mention the Whyalla steelworks announcement as a reason that their view of Albanese and the Labor Party has improved in the last week.

This second wave of the Election Track used the same methodology as the first. It surveyed 1,004 voters across 20 key seats (see below) with a ±3.4% margin of error. After weighting, the effective sample size was 809

On Sunday, the News Ltd papers published the second of the RedBridge and Accent Research key seats tracking polls This showed that Labor’s vote has improved since the first wave of the track

three posts down in a thread (as well as there literally being error bars in the figure they reposted) imagine being this confident, and this wrong. how embarrassing.

This will inordinately impact women. Almost like it was designed to do so. www.news.com.au/finance/work...