New at Can We Still Govern? "I am writing as an ordinary citizen of Minneapolis/St Paul...to share with the outside world what is really going on ─ the terror being inflicted upon a U.S. city and state by our federal government." Please read, share, help. 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/dispatch-f...

Why is the independence of the Fed so important? Here's how former chairs Bernanke and Yellen explain it in a short @brookings.edu video youtu.be/xeIAlIEzlI8?...

I am on the #EconJobMarket this year! I work on questions about women’s health, family, & labor. In my #JMP I study how changes in abortion access affect infant and maternal health, finding that reductions in access harm health at birth. Read the full manuscript here: lillyspringer.com

The Trump Administration is abandoning plans for the biggest-ever cut to Social Security Disability Insurance, which would have hit older workers hardest. The rule would have devastated up to 1.5 million workers' financial stability, retirement security & access to health care. wapo.st/4o48J24

Now do the people who get sick

Tell me you don’t understand risk pools without telling me you don’t understand risk pools

Alarming news this morning that Social Security head Frank Bisignano has been named “CEO” of IRS, a move that raises 3 major concerns: www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

The FTC is hiring Statisticians in the Bureau of Economics! This is a great opportunity for seniors or recent grads interested in antitrust and consumer protection economics, and applied microeconomics research. Come work with me! Happy to answer any questions. www.usajobs.gov/job/845835200

What’s so surprising about this imo is that the change in attitude is strong across all groups - young, old, liberal, conservative, college grads, non-college grads. Just a monumental shift in attitudes.

Fed independence is critical to a functioning economy! I was proud to sign this letter- please consider and do so TODAY too

▶️ Yesterday's webinar recording and slides on "Navigating Disability Benefits: New Research on Administrative Burden and Work Incentives" now posted! Thanks to our presenters Debra Brucker w/ UNH, @michaellevere.bsky.social w/ Colgate, and Ramonia Rochester w/ NDI. www.irp.wisc.edu/resource/nav...

Still time to sign up for this webinar this afternoon from 2-3 ET. What better way to spend your Wednesday afternoon than learning about administrative burden in disability benefits programs?? Looking forward to the conversation! www.irp.wisc.edu/resource/nav...

Excited to be speaking at this webinar on 8/27- sign up! Should be a great discussion.

Really enjoyed presenting at NBER SI last week about my working paper analyzing PROMISE, a large RCT trying to improve economic outcomes for disadvantaged youth with disabilities. See video here: www.youtube.com/live/tzaNRDq...

After 22 years, NBER shuts its Retirement and Disability Research Center. It was funded by the Social Security Administration (SSA) through a cooperative agreement with the NBER with the goal of providing research and analysis that could inform Social Security policy. www.nber.org/brd/20251/nb...

Yesterday the Social Security Administration sent a highly misleading & political press release about the tax bill to my work account, where I'd signed up for SSA updates. Then overnight I got it again, this time to my personal account. And I heard from lots of others who did, too. 🧵

Pssst . . . it costs about the same amount to shore up Social Security's finances as it does to make the Trump tax cuts permanent. But Congressional Republicans are on the verge of shoveling trillions at the wealthiest, while leaving a shortfall in the program we ALL need and love.

They could have used this gimmick to extend the enhanced tax credits at "no cost" and prevent 4.2 million people from losing coverage. This would be no more (or less) gimmicky than using it to extend tax breaks for the wealthy.

Female academics are much more affected by the birth of a child than are male academics. Academic mothers are much more likely to... ◾temporarily leave the labor force ◾and, if they return, shift away from tenure-track positions. scholar.harvard.edu/files/sdchen...

It is essential to know that the $1 BILLION of savings noted here is less than 0.1% of the total amount spent on annually Social Security -- why is the benchmark the operating budget? Can't help but think of Dr. Evil here...

OBBB's tax provisions are more regressive than the Bush tax cut deal. The latter had refundable tax credit expansions helping the bottom OBBB lacks and didn't include the top rate cut/pass-through deduction. And the Bush tax cut deal didn't cut SNAP/Medicaid at the same time.

Once again, I find myself thinking of the press release announcing that the Social Security Administration was unilaterally cancelling funding for all Retirement and Disability Research Consortia. It called the centers “wasteful initiatives.” All of them had a combined cost of about $15 million.

There's a lot to unpack here. But the "why do people in the developed world die from chronic diseases at higher rates than in poorer countries" is because we survive long enough to die from chronic rather than infectious disease. This is epidemiology 101. It's not a mystery.

This is why we need *public* research funding--the public has a right to know what the best evidence is on these complex topics.

The incredible value of the excellent research showing that health insurance saves lives!

New from @chloeneast.bsky.social at Can We Still Govern: AEI cited her work to make the case for SNAP work requirements. Chloe explains that her and other research show that work requirements reduce SNAP access while doing nothing for employment outcomes. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-aei-g...

New research from me&@agpines.bsky.social Congress is pushing work requirements for Medicaid&SNAP. You’ve heard these kick eligible folks off (@pamherd.bsky.social @donmoyn.bsky.social), don't increase work&cause hunger (@laurenhlb.bsky.social @chloeneast.bsky.social). But wait there's more! 1/n

This is especially important: “We call upon our fellow institutions of higher education in the United States to declare their willingness to facilitate the immediate co-enrollment of Harvard’s international students, including formal acceptance of transfer for immigration purposes.”

See, the money goes into his personal account, so it's not a conflict.

First big sabbatical project achieved!

It’s almost as if they don’t care what data say and cancel research because knowing the truth wouldn’t change their minds anyways.

We cannot harm those deemed “undeserving” without also harming many who are supposedly “deserving.” These false dichotomies serve only the most wealthy/elite. MLK was on point when he said that “injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.” We ignore that wisdom to our own peril.

Really helpful details in here for the wonky who want to understand how this bill will cut Medicaid spending and coverage for 8 million people

Ocean’s twenty-two

Such an important point. One devastating aspect of SSA canceling the RDRC is losing JSIT: a weeklong training to help junior researchers prep for research with SSA. I loved being a mentor and talking with people last summer. Now many won't go into this space, and we'll learn less about programs.

Oh, absolutely. But even if this was an accurate portrayal of autism (it’s not) his rhetoric and behavior still wouldn’t be okay. I want to live in a world where someone’s right to exist isn’t conditional on their productive capacity, ability to write a poem, or go to the bathroom unassisted.

Very frustrating to see the government's thoughtful development of good tools that genuinely help people disappear -- this was a great way to show people how government can be trusted and an example I spoke of often in my public econ class

See full thread but a) govt trying to coerce people into work just generally does not work; we already have very strong work incentives; b) Trump has gutted research like this on how SSA is working and can be improved.

Really interesting work examining a work incentive proposal in the Social Security Disability program. It didn't work, with a likely cause due to administrative burden. This is a theme across social welfare programs, including Medicaid. Work requirements or incentives often are hobbled by burdens

New paper in @jpube.bsky.social: Changing SSDI work incentives by replacing a cash cliff—where people lose their benefits by earning even $1 above a threshold—with a benefit offset does not affect work activity (using an RCT with 10,000 SSDI beneficiaries). The key question then is why! 1/5

New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: The IRS is entering into an agmt to share data about undocumented immigrants with ICE. Historically, the agency promised data would not be used in this way. We estimate the govt will lose ~$300B in the next decade as a result.

🚨 NEWS: The IRS and DHS have signed an agreement to share confidential tax data for suspected undocumented immigrants. Follows our reporting that this deal was imminent — and would cover **7 million** suspected undocumented folks. More to come… www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

I'm getting ready to talk about data on government fraud in my public econ class later this week -- is this $140B number because they simply summed every number with a B in the list at the last link, ignoring that the last point of $55B refers to proper payments?

The simple truth is that Trump believes that, if we send money to a county in exchange for stuff, we've just lost because now they have our money

NEW 🧵 A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far: 1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively. These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.

So, the DOGE kids intend to rewrite the social-security administration's COBOL code-base! and they want to do it ... ... in *a few months* I did a huge dive into COBOL a few years ago (www.wealthsimple.com/en-ca/magazi...) ... ... so let me explain why DOGE is *way* over its skis here 1/9

#FundSocSci www.irp.wisc.edu/wp/wp-conten...

Just as we warned, breakdowns at Social Security are happening already—reported in a brand new must-read from the Post. (gift link) wapo.st/4hM5MAn