Fascinating and richly reported story on the mechanics and consequences of Iranian fruit & veg smuggling. “Iran now supplies nine out of ten cauliflowers, tomatoes and watermelons imported by the UAE, a near-monopoly built in just a few years.” www.economist.com/interactive/...

In 1945 my father was with the British fleet in the Pacific. He visited Nagasaki not long after it was destroyed. I wrote a brief post about the visual record he left behind.

In which myself and @snellarthur.bsky.social discuss the catastrophic aid situation in Gaza, and France's recognition of a Palestinian State. It's long long discussion, but there's a lot to say. It's frank and will cut at times, but we've tried to be fair. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/a...

“exercises led to the conclusion that … any attack on Fordo would have to come in waves, with B-2s releasing one bomb after another down the same hole. And the operation would have to be executed by an American pilot and crew” www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/u...

Looks like IDF decapitation of leadership prevented Iranian missile launch. Notable that Iran, despite strategic warning, hadn’t delegated launch authority. Or launchers were suppressed. www.axios.com/2025/06/13/i...

A short podcast I did for the Spectator about today’s events www.spectator.co.uk/podcast/isra...

It appears that Netanyahu has the freedom to escalate at will at this point. The only way off the ladder would seem to me to be Trump, who can say to Iran, "look what happens if you don't talk to me, this is the cost. Come back to the table now, or this gets way worse."

Healey: “SDR recommends commencing discussions with the US & NATO on enhancing the UK’s participation in NATO’s nuclear mission. We have accepted that …, as we have the other 61 recommendations…I will not comment in public on those discussions” ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-confirms-...

Striking chart. "In a scenario where defence is increased to 3% of GDP, and DHSC gets 3.4% (around the long-run average), all other departments would face cuts of around 1.8% per year" ifs.org.uk/articles/fou...

My latest piece co-authored with Dr Azriel Bermant on the future of UK-Israel relations. www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

I spoke to @mikerstephens.bsky.social about the terrible humanitarian crisis in #Gaza and the world’s shifting response. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...

I don't always agree with Jeremy Bowen on this conflict. But he is absolutely right. Patience has run out, and the last supplies of political goodwill for Israel are fast slipping away. Outside of a small group of right wing politicians and advocates support has gone. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Tory MP on party polling fourth: “Forget renewal. More like resuscitation.”

Trump says he’ll drop the Syria sanctions, so what happens now? Me on The Warcast: warontherocks.com/episode/warc... @warontherocks.bsky.social

“NATO member Turkey’s military is on a roll — just as Europe seems willing to overlook the latest democratic backsliding by its strongman president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan because it needs a well-armed ally to protect its south-eastern flank from Russian revanchism.”

This is not ok...this isn't about the horrors of October 7, or going easy on Hamas (who continue to behave appallingly). Israel's current Gaza policy is morally wrong, and is strategically highly questionable in its efficacy. It should be roundly condemned by all sensible and decent people.

Great to be at the National Liberal Club’s Defence and Security Circle Anzac Day breakfast, we heard a fascinating talk about online extremism while having a shot of rum!

COLUMN: How do you say "drill, baby, drill" in Mandarin? Call it “zuan ba, bao bei, zuan ba." China may not have a drilling slogan, but it just lifted oil production to an all-time high, surpassing a peak set 10 years ago. My @opinion.bloomberg.com column: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Steve Rosen: US force posture "made sense during the Cold War because of the economic value of Europe and Japan to the United States and the ability of the [US] to deploy its forces safely nearer to enemy forces...But the world has changed significantly" www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

🎙Will the transatlantic relationship endure? In the latest Global Security Briefing episode, with special guest Dr Liana Fix, we explore the future of US policy toward European security amidst growing global security challenges, shifting US priorities, and Europe's pursuit of strategic autonomy.

EXC: EU to exclude US, UK and Turkey from €150bn rearmament fund - unless they sign new defence pacts with bloc Move has sparked anger in UK defence sector and disappointment in UK govt, though officials insist it was anticipated via @henryjfoy.ft.com & me www.ft.com/content/eb9e...

This is a critical year for Iran’s nuclear programme. Without an off-ramp, Iran could weaponize its nuclear programme — or have its nuclear facilities attacked.

🧵 Where are we headed in Ukraine/Europe? A few scenarios, off the top of my head.

🎙Shifting alliances and global power struggles are redefining the Middle East's future. Join Neil Melvin, @burcuozcelik.bsky.social and @mikerstephens.bsky.social as they explore who will ultimately hold the power in the latest episode of Global Security Briefing.

Aha. Finally, a sensible, balanced, non hysterical analysis of the challenge Reform may pose to the Tories and Labour. Thank you, @lucyfisher.ft.com 👍🏾www.ft.com/content/faa5...

Good to chat with @jaheale.bsky.social and Katy Balls about a rock and roll week... www.spectator.co.uk/podcast/shou...

On Wednesday lunch time I'll be chatting with the always excellent @ukandeu.bsky.social about the new world of global politics that will be created by a Trump presidency. t.co/Y7I53T8EuR

"It is understood Downing Street is about to appoint a new senior foreign affairs adviser to replace the academic and historian John Bew, who worked under Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak but left after Labour came to power." www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

The idea that UK press hushed up child sexual abuse until Musk is laughable. This is what my colleagues were writing 10+ years ago: "In Rotherham, this ethnic misogyny then ran up against the institutional misogyny of the police and the mostly white council" economist.com/britain/2014...

'A lazy consensus seems to have emerged in the West, based more on hope than serious analysis, that Putin will agree to stop his further incursions into Ukraine' writes Tim Willasey-Wilsey in the latest RUSI Commentary.

🎙 In the final #GlobalSecurityBriefing episode of 2024, we ask @burcuozcelik.bsky.social and @mikerstephens.bsky.social what comes next for Syria and the future of the region, following the fall of the Assad regime. Learn more here: rusi.org/podcasts/glo...

Always a delight to do a podcast with the excellent @burcuozcelik.bsky.social this time on Syria and the aftermath of the regime's collapse. rusi.org/podcasts/glo...

Assad is going to start a blog, isn’t he

watching German ice football highlights, I’ve never felt more alive

If you want to understand where Trump foreign policy might be heading, I recommend this pod I recorded with Dan Caldwell in DC last week. www.ft.com/content/ffe7...

After the fall of a brutal dictatorship, the West needs a plan for sanctions relief. #Syria is one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world. Leaving severe #sanctions in place will be like pulling the rug out from under Syria just as it tries to stand. 🧵1/

Pleased to offer my thoughts to the Spectator Coffee shorts podcast about what’s at stake for the UK in the Syria conflict with the great @jaheale.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/c...

At this point, Mr Sharaa is just going around Damascus doing scenic photoshoots, like some heavily armed influencer. Source: t.me/G_CSyriaa/29

Someone just told me their annual Christmas tree reference point is Ronald and Nancy Reagan's 1987 White House tree, so I googled it.

TEN employees. “NBC News reported Tuesday that Hegseth’s drinking concerned his colleagues at Fox News, according to 10 current and former Fox employees. At times, before going on air, colleagues said he smelled of alcohol or talked about being hung over.” www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcn...

So are they going to write of 2024 European politics in the way they wrote about 1848? Britain looks remarkably sane right now (which is saying something). But hey Repeal of the Corn Laws 1846 split the Tories for a generation and we stayed stable as Europe wobbled in revolt. #parallels.

I am so happy @bsky.app has turned into a X/Threads replacement. Taking me back to the old days on Twitter--minus all the annoying trolls. This has pretty much all the accounts I follow on X and seemingly none of the ones I want to avoid! It's become useful, like the old Twitter, for breaking news.

Under a second Trump term, America could become a global bully, @davidfrum.bsky.social writes—and this will only leave the country weaker:

This is the speech Starmer needed to make at this point in time, the UK's role must surely be to bridge a Trump-led US and Europe. Although in practice balancing the two will be incredibly difficult. www.gov.uk/government/s...

another example of people who say they're willing to pay more for American but do not, in fact, pay for made-in-USA goods.

Massive away win for the little fella.

Remarkable intervention by Ya'alon: “Former defense minister and IDF chief of staff Moshe Ya’alon said… Israel’s leadership, driven by far-right elements who seek to resettle Gaza, was taking the country down a path of ethnic cleansing in the Gaza Strip” www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahus-e...

Now Hama has fallen. Next stop Homs, multiple reports of gunfire in Damascus and fighting south in Deraa. Syria is fully back to civil war. The regime hasn’t been this weak since 2015.

For those curious about Jawlani and his evolution, I've been tracking every single media release/public appearance he has had since January 2012 jihadology.net/2020/05/27/a...

Regime now pulling out of Hama leaving a clear run for the Syrian rebels to capture half of the M5…and even push toward Homs. This is quite remarkable…who would have thought. Unless the regime has some grand plan up its sleeve this is an incredibly fast collapse.