Cool paper, @nilsblossey.bsky.social!

The current state of AI for sustained work: exponential progress continues with no unexpected leaps but also no walls. (The METR measure is just one of many benchmarks, and like all benchmarks has flaws, but also has the advantage of have neither a ceiling or floor effect) metr.org/blog/2025-03...

Irritating Discourse Cliche - "The Public Are Frustrated With Mainstream Politics" - up there with vague references to "the dangers of populism". Look at the last century of democratic politics - * Pre WW2 * Post-War * Post-Post-War

New AI regulations suggested by the White House mirror changes to environmental permitting suggested by Meta and a lobbying group representing firms like Google and Amazon Web Services. www.wired.com/story/big-te...

New WP w/ @riazsascha.bsky.social: via >42 million placebo tests, we show type I error inflation in Unexpected Event during Survey Designs (UESD), propose an adjustment, implement via new R package uesdRobust, and demonstrate utility by replicating two top UESD studies. osf.io/preprints/os... 1/9

Cool paper showing that unemployment risks causally increase demand for welfare state insurance (in Denmark): doi.org/10.1111/ajps...

@mbusemeyer.bsky.social, @slstutzmann.bsky.social, and I have a new article in the special issue "Greening the Economy: Toward a New Political Economy" in @reggovjournal.bsky.social, now out in print. The article is open access — read it here: dx.doi.org/10.1111/rego...

I've been a huge fan of Mr. Hussman's monthly market comments for years. Always informative and thought-provoking, he goes well beyond market analysis, weaving in broader social and economic themes. Just brilliant. Highly recommend!

Terrific lineup for our Comparative Politics & Political Economy series this summer,incl @clandwehr.bsky.social @finseraas.bsky.social @eunjikim.bsky.social @ccavaille.bsky.social @anewq.bsky.social & @valentimvicente.bsky.social . Thanks for organizing @tobiastober.bsky.social @na-wehl.bsky.social

We just launched a call for a workshop and special issue proposal on "The Politics of AI"! Excited to see many great submissions—join us in Oxford!

We just launched a call for a workshop and special issue proposal on "The Politics of AI"! Excited to see many great submissions—join us in Oxford!

How do attitudes to 🇪🇺 European integration relate to political ideology and policy preferences? A major update of my study: - I added the latest 2023 ESS data for citizens and 2024 CHES data for parties - I built an app to explore these relationships across datasets, indicators, years & countries

I'm not a China expert, just an interested observer. But if you compare how China regularly celebrates the return of successful scientists with the way science is being treated in the US under Trump, the contrast could hardly be greater.

“The Rise of Affective Polarization: Is It What We Think, or Who We Are?” by John Konicki Preprint: osf.io/preprints/osf...

"It would be a great mistake for U.S. policymakers to ignore DeepSeek or to suggest that its accomplishments are merely a combination of [IP] theft and misleading Chinese propaganda...DeepSeek has also demonstrated genuine technological breakthroughs" www.csis.org/analysis/dee...

Important: Commission plan ‘Rearm Europe’ will not require unanimity. Hungary and Slovakia cannot block it on their own ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

Trade with less developed countries reduces unionization in rich democracies. Global value chains lead to union decline even in countries with the most union-friendly institutions journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Well, the next Boris Johnson column is going to be a doozy

Big tech has a tremendous impact on democracy 🚨New report out w focus on misinformation, content moderation & generative AI Team @anjabechmann.bsky.social @adler-nissen.bsky.social @madshovethy.bsky.social @golovchenko.bsky.social @fghjorth.bsky.social👏 Details⬇️ www.linkedin.com/posts/claes-...

Come work with us! In my research group, we have two four-year PhD positions available in comparative politics. Happy to answer questions per email. Please share the ad. You can find the ad here: stellen.uni-konstanz.de/jobposting/d...

Erstaunlich, wie aktuell dieses Strauß-Interview von Günter Gaus—aufgenommen kurz nach der Niederschlagung des Prager Frühlings—heute wirkt: youtu.be/DI7Kw9TWS98?...

DeepSunk

We streamlined six new DID-like estimators and created this tutorial for implementation in R. yiqingxu.org/packages/fec... Hope you no longer need to spend months figuring out what these estimators are and how to use them.

I am keeping a diary of daily events, as they unfold open.substack.com/pub/adamprze... It is available to everyone. I am new to Substack, so please let me know if something is wrong with the link or the file.

Last week, Sharon Baute and I were honored to receive the In_equality ECR Excellence Award from @excinequality.bsky.social for our recent paper in @bjpols.bsky.social! 🎉 #HonoredToBeHonored (hashtag credit to the great Tom Waits)

From our new issue: "Explaining Rural Conservatism: Political Consequences of Technological Change in the Great Plains" by Aditya Dasgupta and Elena Ramirez. #APSRNewIssue www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Read our new paper on how the economic empowerment of one generation of women drives greater political officeholding for the next 💪✨

The application deadline for doctoral positions in #PoliticalEconomy and #EconomicSociology is fast approaching. We look forward to receiving your application by February 28. 👉 career.mpifg.de/jobposting/9... 👉 career.mpifg.de/jobposting/1...

Our article 'A Crisis of Political Trust?' led by @viktorv.bsky.social is now out in @bjpols.bsky.social! We use >3,000 surveys in 143 countries between 1958 and 2019, finding that trust in representative institutions has generally been declining in recent decades. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

🚨Looking for an RA🚨I'm looking to hire a Research Assistant based in the UK for a project on the “Political economy of AI.” Please find the relevant information in the dropbox link. Please feel free to share this with your students or those you think may be interested. Thank you!

We find that (1) education structures voting for GAL and TAN parties in Western Europe; (2) social structuration is as high as for classic social democratic parties in the 1950s; (3) education structures also Republicans and Democrats. Open access, and on our homepages.

Please apply to the workshop "The Politics of AI: Actors, Policy, Geopolitics, and Resistances" (Barcelona, October 2-3). We seek empirical work on key actors, lobby and regulatory activities, and political conflict related to AI and Big Tech. Submission: forms.gle/o4rwT9km3iPX... by February 28.

What are public perceptions on climate change and carbon-dioxide removal around the world? The survey dataset by @chadmbaum.bsky.social @liviafritz.bsky.social et al is now available via the #GENIE CDR Knowledge Hub... 📝 cdr.apps.ece.iiasa.ac.at/story/2025_0...

#OpenAccess from our new issue - European Institutional Integration and the Educational Divide in Support for the European Union - cup.org/4h4nShk - Sharon Baute & @tobiastober.bsky.social

📢 Our new paper in Political Analysis explains how to use LLMs like GPT-4o, Llama or Mistral to estimate the ideological and policy position of political texts. Our approach is fast, reliable, cost-effective and reproducible and works with texts written in different languages 1/7 cup.org/4axBEXo

Excited to share a new publication with Sharon Baute! In our latest paper @bjpols.bsky.social , we explore how the growing educational divide in EU support is partly shaped by European institutional integration itself. Check it out here, it's open access:

Too big to regulate? Some first instruments are now in play, under the Digital Services Act #DSA. And the @ec.europa.eu is using it! The EC opens proceedings against #TikTok to investigate how it handles risks to elections (recommender systems and political ads/content) ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

Wow. Go read an absolutely blistering report (w/tons of charts) from the World Economic Forum on the massive cost of Climate Inaction: "Rising climate risks are already impacting the global economy and the business case for collective action is clear" reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The...

Check out the newest paper of our #inequality Cluster members Sharon Baute & @tobiastober.bsky.social @unikonstanz.bsky.social #OpenAccess

Here's a provocative new paper "Confronting the New Gatekeepers of Experimental Political Science" doi.org/10.33774/aps...

My unit (Department of Public Policy at CEU, Vienna) is hiring!We’re looking for candidates with excellent skills in quantitative methods (specifically text mining, natural language processing, machine learning). Link to full call: careers.ceu.edu/job/Vienna-A... Happy to answer questions!

Excited to share a new publication with Sharon Baute! In our latest paper @bjpols.bsky.social , we explore how the growing educational divide in EU support is partly shaped by European institutional integration itself. Check it out here, it's open access:

"While Silicon Valley has always wielded influence in American politics, what's emerging now is different – a world where the interests of select technology companies become indistinguishable from US government policy" www.techpolicy.press/on-the-comin...

🇬🇧🇪🇺 Published Today in EJPR 🇬🇧🇪🇺 @simonhix.bsky.social @juhoharkonen.bsky.social and I find that 1/3 of the anti-Brexit shift in the UK can be attributed to the impact of cohort replacement (old voters dying, young people becoming eligible to vote)! 1/12 ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

As long as social class is visible in the average body height, the "death of class"-thesis is quite overblow.

🚨New Tool: paper-picnic.com The latest published political science research (and research in adjacent fields) every Friday. No alert chaos, no registration, no clutter. Powered by @crossref.bsky.social

Powerful map illustrating 100 years of economic change in West Germany, from this paper by Paul Berbée, @sebastiantbraun.bsky.social and Richard Franke: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Some of the most important lottery anomalies from the behavioral risk literature (e.g., probability weighting and loss aversion) actually have nothing to do with risk. They also arise in perfectly deterministic settings. Lead article in the latest AER issue: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

There is a general assumption that urban-rural divides in politics have increased across Western Democracies in recent decades. But is this really case? Or are we just extrapolating from the US? A recent paper by @twanhuijsmans.bsky.social and Jonathan Rodden provides comparative evidence. 1/c

I made some updates to the website, including adding a Bluesky button and removing the button for the old place-that-shall-not-be-named. See here: tobiastober.github.io