1/4 Last week I was at NATO’s Maritime Security Conference in Istanbul, where Sofia Steensma Tedder and I presented our paper. What a way to celebrate Sofia joining the Department of Political Science (University of Copenhagen) as a Research Assistant!

Some daunting outlooks, some inspiring insights, but overall hesitant optimism among all speakers @golovchenko.bsky.social @claravandeweerdt.bsky.social @keltonminor.bsky.social @robert-habeck.de at this exciting event.

@seagor.bsky.social (et al?) has just published two glorious methods to locate GPS/GNSS jammers using already active satellite constellations where data is open. NASA CYGNSS, a micro-satellite constellation devised to detect hurricanes and NISAR, a global radar to track changes in nature.

I had a break from Russian news media for a while. Coming back feels like someone is trying to corrode my brain. The “Special Military Operation” continues.

"The Prime Minister has agreed that the UK Armed Forces and law enforcement officers will now be able to interdict vessels that have been sanctioned by the UK and are transiting through UK waters." This could be an impactful move if followed by allies, especially 🇫🇷 & 🇧🇪 www.gov.uk/government/n...

I was interviewed for an article in France 24 about a sanctioned, Russian-flagged tanker that may or may not be on its way to Cuba. In short, this could be Russia’s way of testing/poking at the U.S. in the “Western Hemisphere” (i.e. the U.S administrations self-percieved sphere of influence)

Interesting dive into China’s use of civilian research vessels for gathering data of military value. Another reminder for those of us focused on hybrid activity in Baltic Sea region that a lot of similar activity has been taking place around Asia for a very long time www.reuters.com/investigatio...

1/ Denne artikel kan måske give indtryk af, at Ukraines angreb på gas- og olieinfrastruktur generelt ikke er særlig effektive. Men Ruslands budgetindtægter fra olie og gas faldt med 24% i 2025 under intensiveringen af angrebene - det laveste niveau siden 2020. Det er enormt www.dr.dk/nyheder/udla...

Krigen mellem Rusland og Ukraine udspiller sig også i Østersøen. Det bliver endnu tydeligere med Ukraines droneangreb på Primorsk Havn. Mange af de skyggeflådeskibe, der passerer Danmark, bliver lastet med olie netop her. www.dr.dk/nyheder/sene...

It's been a while. I'm finally back at work and happy to share our newest piece on the detained Iranian tanker Nora, which is currently moored in Kalundborg for mysterious reasons. Leaked data shows it's crewed by Iranians and a single Russian and that all its papers are seemingly falsified.

“It is time for the gloves to come off on the Russia’s shadow fleet”

The US war against Iran is undermining some of the strategic gains achieved by Ukraine's strike against Russian oil facilities as well Western sanctions. Oil prices are now up, sanctions on Russian oil are being temporarily lifted. Stable genius vibes.

“Trump warns Nato faces 'very bad' future if allies do not help secure Strait of Hormuz”. The US was once the core of NATO. It is increasingly becoming the core burden of the alliance. This is just another wake-up call for Europe to become self-reliant in the long term. www.bbc.com/news/live/cx...

1/ The Swedish Coast Guard is on 🔥. Yesterday, they seized another shadow fleet vessel suspected of sailing under a false flag and sanctioned by the EU. As I wrote in one of my previous posts, now is the golden opportunity to ramp up this kind of action. www.kustbevakningen.se/nyheter/ytte...

Pro Russian propaganda channel. That is how @golovchenko.bsky.social characterizes the role of these efforts in the upcoming 🇩🇰 elections. Modest foreign accounts getting domestic traction. Important story by @kevinshakir.bsky.social www.dr.dk/nyheder/poli...

1/ Jeg blev interviewet om PETs vurdering af risikoen for påvirkningskampagner rettet mod Danmark under valgkampen. Det mest dybdegående indslag kom i Mandag Morgen i selskab med gode kollegaer. Sandsynligheden for påvirkningsaktivitet rettet mod netop Danmark er stor. www.mm.dk/groen-omstil...

This exciting lecture is on Friday! 📣

1/ Svenske myndigheder har tilbageholdt et fragtskib, som de blandt andet mistænker for at sejle under falsk flag. Det har Danmark også gjort tidligere i år - og kan gøre mere af.

1/ Hvad har krigen i Iran at gøre med skyggeflåden, Venezuela og Kina? Herhjemme taler vi meget om den russiske skyggeflåde. Men faktisk har både Iran og Venezuela længe haft deres egne skyggeflåder til at omgå sanktioner rettet mod deres olieeksport. Hvem er en af de største købere? Kina.

Today's episode in the series of beautiful maps

1/ This is interesting news: The UK has sanctioned a New Zealand–based company that insured shadow fleet vessels, including some that were already sanctioned, according to journalist reports. www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...

SwePol high voltage power cable "malfunctioned" February 11. @windward-ai.bsky.social finds a conspicuous tanker right in the middle and all but claim they are suspect. Dark on AIS, odd maneuvers and suspect flag/ownership is quoted. (It is also an ad, ship is not named.)

One of three shadow tankers lack flag, ie are lawless and fair game for any navy, anywhere. Journalists took a look at the entire shadow tanker fleet and found a whole third of them lack a flag. But, as EU states get laws and are about to act the ships are already re-flagging, many to Russia.

#Shadowfleet in the news! www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl... h/t @golovchenko.bsky.social

Russia’s economy is under growing strain: falling oil revenues, a widening budget deficit, and sanctions that “do bite.” SITE’s Torbjörn Becker joins SR’s Radiokorrespondenterna Ryssland to unpack what this means for the war - and what comes next. Learn more (in Swe): tr.ee/0HqwZP

It feels like the EUs 20th sanction package is not getting much media coverage, at least here in Denmark. This little "detail" could potentially change the dynamic of sanctions and shadow fleet activity: "we introduce a full maritime services ban for Russian crude oil" ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

@pa.nton.cx @auonsson.bsky.social @maritimekiwi.bsky.social @tankertrackers.com @kerstin10785berlin.bsky.social 🤷‍♂️ www.lloydslist.com/LL1156288/Fa...

#BBC article on rise in numbers of abandoned #tankers and #seafarers worldwide #Shadowfleet #FoC #FlagOfConvinience #ITF #InternationalTransportworkersFederation #IMO #InternationalMaritimeOrganisation www.bbc.com/news/article...

This is a popular view in Western Europe, but it gets the logic upside down. The relevant question is whether Russia has the drone technology to close the Baltic Sea for us.

Rederiet Norden vil bidrage med sine danskflagede skibe til Danmarks beredskab. Desværre er kun 7 ud af 46 skibe på dansk flag. Måske skulle rederiernes fædrelandskærlighed begynde der.

AKADEMIK NIKOLAY STRAKHOV (IMO 8211174) is currently on the way back to Kaliningrad after completing its latest work in the Atlantic. Highlighted yellow track shows where it was operating over the last month - darker track shows areas from its previous operations.

1/ Tidligere på måneden blev jeg interviewet om amerikanske tiltag mod skyggeflåden. Her i morges er jeg tilbage til mit klassiske emne: pro-russisk propaganda. TV 2 kører en historie om en påvirkningskampagne om bl.a. Grønland. Kampagnen forsøger at forstærke splid internt i NATO...

Excited to give a talk in Stockholm tomorrow about the effects of sanctions on the Russian Shadow fleet!

#NorthSea #BalticSea coastal states sound the alarm due to safety risks from the increasing interference to navigation systems #GPS #GNSS #Jamming #AIS @auonsson.bsky.social @signalseta.bsky.social @oldsun.bsky.social @pa.nton.cx @electra1970.bsky.social www.dma.dk/news/2026/ja...

Går på P1 Orientering om lidt for at tale om USA’s bekæmpelse af skyggeflåden. Én ting er klar: Amerikanerne går hårdt til værks og foretager en eskalering, som vi indtil videre ikke har turdet i Europa.

Great to see increased effort against the Russian shadow fleet. But I also can't stop thinking: This could have been done in 2022. Every shipment keeps the Russian economy alive and sustains the full scale invasion.

1/ A potential regime change in Venezuela would be a long-term loss for Russia. Venezuela is both an ideological ally and a strategic partner. Losing it would push Russia further from global-power status toward a more regional role.

The US attack on Venezuela is yet another reminder that the international rules-based order is breaking down. Maybe it has already collapsed? This has been in the making for a while and will likely have consequences for us all.

Quick timelapse showing guard vessel activity as work on the Celtic Interconnector progressed in the second half of 2025. www.eirgrid.ie/celticinterc...

⚓️ 🇷🇺Russia now deploys about a dozen „zombie ships“ - such as the 27y old #TAVION, formerly known as #TIA, which was illegally assigned a new IMO number in China and since pretends to be a brand-new ship. “TAVION“ was escorted by 2 Russian warships off Fehmarn, acc. to a Kieler Nachrichten report.

Hvis nogen var i tvivl, er der ikke nogen grund til at være optimistisk omkring fredsforhandlinger mellem Rusland og Ukraine i dag. Forhandlingerne er mere seriøse nu. Det bedste man kan håbe på er dog en midlertidig og skrøbelig våbenhvile - ikke fred. Selv der er vi ikke endnu

Var forbi “Verden ifølge Gram” på P1 i går i rigtig godt selskab med Jeanette Serritzlev og Flemming Splidsboel Hansen for at tale om hybrid krigsførelse. Man kan høre det her: www.dr.dk/lyd/p1/verde...

1/ Jeg har skrevet en kronik i Politiken om hybridkrigsførelse, der sammenfatter mine tidligere opslag her. Mit vigtigste budskab er: Vi skal ikke være bange, men forberedte. Europa har været udsat for angreb som minimum siden 2007 – og der kommer flere. politiken.dk/debat/kronik...

1/2 Jeg gætter på, at flere danskere fortolker sådan en overskrift på DR anderledes nu, end de ville have gjort for få dage siden. Det har længe været virkelighed i Ukraine. Disse droner blinker ikke og smutter væk, men er der for at eksplodere.

1/ Droner er ikke kernen i hybridkrig. Det er som regel vores informationsrum, psykologiske reaktioner og politiske håndtering. Jo mere vi går i panik over en hændelse, og jo vildere overskrifterne bliver, desto mere attraktivt er det at rette angreb mod netop Danmark.

1/ Var forbi ‘Go’ aften Live på TV 2 i går for at tale om droner og hybridkrigsførelse i godt selskab med bl.a. Peter Ernstved Rasmussen. Jeg kom med mange af de samme pointer som i det forrige opslag. Hvis jeg skal tilføje blot ét fra interview:

1/ Har talt med Information om droner og russisk hybridkrigsførelse. Det er bag paywall, derfor kommer nogle af hovedpointerne lidt mere udfoldet her. 👇 www.information.dk/indland/2025...

#NATO #DK #Denmark warship on top of pipeline (gas). Close to same place #Russia #MechanicStepanov idled? @pa.nton.cx @auonsson.bsky.social @claudialanz.bsky.social @jakobbohr.bsky.social @glistrup.bsky.social @boelkjaer.bsky.social

1/ Måske er i dag et godt tidspunkt at skrive en mini-tråd om hybrid krigsførelse. Her kommer den 👇

Estonia’s Defence Ministry published a map showing the approximate route of Russian MiG-31 jets. Moscow claims the aircraft did not violate Estonian airspace and were allegedly on a planned flight to Kaliningrad.