1/ Jeg blev interviewet om PETs vurdering af risikoen for påvirkningskampagner rettet mod Danmark under valgkampen. Det mest dybdegående indslag kom i Mandag Morgen i selskab med gode kollegaer. Sandsynligheden for påvirkningsaktivitet rettet mod netop Danmark er stor. www.mm.dk/groen-omstil...

This exciting lecture is on Friday! 📣

1/ Svenske myndigheder har tilbageholdt et fragtskib, som de blandt andet mistænker for at sejle under falsk flag. Det har Danmark også gjort tidligere i år - og kan gøre mere af.

1/ Hvad har krigen i Iran at gøre med skyggeflåden, Venezuela og Kina? Herhjemme taler vi meget om den russiske skyggeflåde. Men faktisk har både Iran og Venezuela længe haft deres egne skyggeflåder til at omgå sanktioner rettet mod deres olieeksport. Hvem er en af de største købere? Kina.

Today's episode in the series of beautiful maps

1/ This is interesting news: The UK has sanctioned a New Zealand–based company that insured shadow fleet vessels, including some that were already sanctioned, according to journalist reports. www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...

SwePol high voltage power cable "malfunctioned" February 11. @windward-ai.bsky.social finds a conspicuous tanker right in the middle and all but claim they are suspect. Dark on AIS, odd maneuvers and suspect flag/ownership is quoted. (It is also an ad, ship is not named.)

One of three shadow tankers lack flag, ie are lawless and fair game for any navy, anywhere. Journalists took a look at the entire shadow tanker fleet and found a whole third of them lack a flag. But, as EU states get laws and are about to act the ships are already re-flagging, many to Russia.

#Shadowfleet in the news! www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl... h/t @golovchenko.bsky.social

Russia’s economy is under growing strain: falling oil revenues, a widening budget deficit, and sanctions that “do bite.” SITE’s Torbjörn Becker joins SR’s Radiokorrespondenterna Ryssland to unpack what this means for the war - and what comes next. Learn more (in Swe): tr.ee/0HqwZP

It feels like the EUs 20th sanction package is not getting much media coverage, at least here in Denmark. This little "detail" could potentially change the dynamic of sanctions and shadow fleet activity: "we introduce a full maritime services ban for Russian crude oil" ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

@pa.nton.cx @auonsson.bsky.social @maritimekiwi.bsky.social @tankertrackers.com @kerstin10785berlin.bsky.social 🤷‍♂️ www.lloydslist.com/LL1156288/Fa...

#BBC article on rise in numbers of abandoned #tankers and #seafarers worldwide #Shadowfleet #FoC #FlagOfConvinience #ITF #InternationalTransportworkersFederation #IMO #InternationalMaritimeOrganisation www.bbc.com/news/article...

This is a popular view in Western Europe, but it gets the logic upside down. The relevant question is whether Russia has the drone technology to close the Baltic Sea for us.

Rederiet Norden vil bidrage med sine danskflagede skibe til Danmarks beredskab. Desværre er kun 7 ud af 46 skibe på dansk flag. Måske skulle rederiernes fædrelandskærlighed begynde der.

AKADEMIK NIKOLAY STRAKHOV (IMO 8211174) is currently on the way back to Kaliningrad after completing its latest work in the Atlantic. Highlighted yellow track shows where it was operating over the last month - darker track shows areas from its previous operations.

1/ Tidligere på måneden blev jeg interviewet om amerikanske tiltag mod skyggeflåden. Her i morges er jeg tilbage til mit klassiske emne: pro-russisk propaganda. TV 2 kører en historie om en påvirkningskampagne om bl.a. Grønland. Kampagnen forsøger at forstærke splid internt i NATO...

Excited to give a talk in Stockholm tomorrow about the effects of sanctions on the Russian Shadow fleet!

#NorthSea #BalticSea coastal states sound the alarm due to safety risks from the increasing interference to navigation systems #GPS #GNSS #Jamming #AIS @auonsson.bsky.social @signalseta.bsky.social @oldsun.bsky.social @pa.nton.cx @electra1970.bsky.social www.dma.dk/news/2026/ja...

Går på P1 Orientering om lidt for at tale om USA’s bekæmpelse af skyggeflåden. Én ting er klar: Amerikanerne går hårdt til værks og foretager en eskalering, som vi indtil videre ikke har turdet i Europa.

Great to see increased effort against the Russian shadow fleet. But I also can't stop thinking: This could have been done in 2022. Every shipment keeps the Russian economy alive and sustains the full scale invasion.

1/ A potential regime change in Venezuela would be a long-term loss for Russia. Venezuela is both an ideological ally and a strategic partner. Losing it would push Russia further from global-power status toward a more regional role.

The US attack on Venezuela is yet another reminder that the international rules-based order is breaking down. Maybe it has already collapsed? This has been in the making for a while and will likely have consequences for us all.

Quick timelapse showing guard vessel activity as work on the Celtic Interconnector progressed in the second half of 2025. www.eirgrid.ie/celticinterc...

⚓️ 🇷🇺Russia now deploys about a dozen „zombie ships“ - such as the 27y old #TAVION, formerly known as #TIA, which was illegally assigned a new IMO number in China and since pretends to be a brand-new ship. “TAVION“ was escorted by 2 Russian warships off Fehmarn, acc. to a Kieler Nachrichten report.

Hvis nogen var i tvivl, er der ikke nogen grund til at være optimistisk omkring fredsforhandlinger mellem Rusland og Ukraine i dag. Forhandlingerne er mere seriøse nu. Det bedste man kan håbe på er dog en midlertidig og skrøbelig våbenhvile - ikke fred. Selv der er vi ikke endnu

Var forbi “Verden ifølge Gram” på P1 i går i rigtig godt selskab med Jeanette Serritzlev og Flemming Splidsboel Hansen for at tale om hybrid krigsførelse. Man kan høre det her: www.dr.dk/lyd/p1/verde...

1/ Jeg har skrevet en kronik i Politiken om hybridkrigsførelse, der sammenfatter mine tidligere opslag her. Mit vigtigste budskab er: Vi skal ikke være bange, men forberedte. Europa har været udsat for angreb som minimum siden 2007 – og der kommer flere. politiken.dk/debat/kronik...

1/2 Jeg gætter på, at flere danskere fortolker sådan en overskrift på DR anderledes nu, end de ville have gjort for få dage siden. Det har længe været virkelighed i Ukraine. Disse droner blinker ikke og smutter væk, men er der for at eksplodere.

1/ Droner er ikke kernen i hybridkrig. Det er som regel vores informationsrum, psykologiske reaktioner og politiske håndtering. Jo mere vi går i panik over en hændelse, og jo vildere overskrifterne bliver, desto mere attraktivt er det at rette angreb mod netop Danmark.

1/ Var forbi ‘Go’ aften Live på TV 2 i går for at tale om droner og hybridkrigsførelse i godt selskab med bl.a. Peter Ernstved Rasmussen. Jeg kom med mange af de samme pointer som i det forrige opslag. Hvis jeg skal tilføje blot ét fra interview:

1/ Har talt med Information om droner og russisk hybridkrigsførelse. Det er bag paywall, derfor kommer nogle af hovedpointerne lidt mere udfoldet her. 👇 www.information.dk/indland/2025...

#NATO #DK #Denmark warship on top of pipeline (gas). Close to same place #Russia #MechanicStepanov idled? @pa.nton.cx @auonsson.bsky.social @claudialanz.bsky.social @jakobbohr.bsky.social @glistrup.bsky.social @boelkjaer.bsky.social

1/ Måske er i dag et godt tidspunkt at skrive en mini-tråd om hybrid krigsførelse. Her kommer den 👇

Estonia’s Defence Ministry published a map showing the approximate route of Russian MiG-31 jets. Moscow claims the aircraft did not violate Estonian airspace and were allegedly on a planned flight to Kaliningrad.

I dag er der opmærksomhed på, hvordan svenske myndigheder forbereder befolkningen på en mulig krig. Måske skulle vores egne myndigheder også være mere direkte/åbne omkring de mulige scenarier? Hvis svenskere, nordmænd og finnere kan tage det, ville danskere nok også klare det

On my way to the American Political Science Association conference in Vancouver to present work on the effects of sanctions on the Russian shadow fleet. DM me if you are also there and want to meet up

No access ⛔ New report documents the difficulty for researchers to get access to social media data. The access challenge has multiple effects, such as turning away from studying some platforms, redesigning studies, and fears of violating terms of service. www.digmin.dk/Media/638923...

New toy for the office. PLH-34 “Akatsuki” operated by the Japanese Coast Guard. Hoping to see it in my data set. Yes, my newfound interest in maritime security has been taking over my life recently 🙂

Danwatch har skrevet om resultater i min seneste artikel. Jeg undersøger effekten af sanktioner målrettet mod enkelte skibe i skyggeflåden. Den sanktionerede del fortsætter med at sejle - men i et langt mere begrænset omfang. danwatch.dk/nyhedsbrev/i...

1/ I just uploaded a preprint on targeted sanctions against Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers. The results suggest that the most recent sanctions are working: the sanctioned fleet is still active, but in a much more limited capacity.

Forrige uge talte jeg om den nye russiske app, Maks, som en mulig forberedelse til mere censur i Rusland rettet mod lignende apps, som WhatsApp. Nu bliver WhatsApp og Telegram rent faktisk begrænset. Det kan man læse mere om i artiklen nedenfor, hvor jeg blev interviewet www.dr.dk/nyheder/udla...

1/ Jeg var på P1 Morgen for at tale om den nye russiske messenger-app "Max", som bliver udgivet af det statsloyale VK (dem bag Vkontakte). Appen spiller en rolle i den russiske censurstrategi. 🔗 www.dr.dk/lyd/p1/p1-mo...

DR reporting today on a SODAS research paper, finding that Danes don't like how much time they spend scrolling on social media, but the vast majority don't do anything about it. Of 9500 respondents, only 30% have turned off notifications or deleted apps. www.dr.dk/nyheder/vide... (in 🇩🇰)

1/2 I am very honored to see ‪@auonsson.bsky.social‬ notice the work of our excellent students! For most folks involved this was their first time working with AIS data or even the maritime domain. I have never seen students so interested in a problem - this seems like a very contagious topic.

1/ What happens when you give social data science students 821.6 GB of public vessel geolocation data (AIS) and just 9 hours to identify potentially suspicious behavior near the Danish coast? papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

The EU and UK just added additional 189 vessels on a sanctions list in an attempt to fight the Russian "shadow fleet". This is the right way to go. I am currently writing a piece on exactly this kind of sanctions. stay tuned. www.france24.com/en/europe/20...

Journalister fra K-Live (DR) har vist, hvordan russiske statskontrollerede medier, RT og Sputnik, stadig kan tilgås i Danmark på trods af EU's beslutning om at blokere adgangen. Jeg har bidraget med en smule baggrund om, hvad det er for nogle medier, det drejer sig om. www.dr.dk/lyd/p1/k-liv...

Har været på News her til morgen - og i livebloggen - for at tale om den baltiske reaktion på endnu et kabelbrud i Østersøen. nyheder.tv2.dk/live/udland/...

'Swedish authorities boarded a Maltese-flagged ship seized in connection with the latest breach of cables running along the bottom of the Baltic Sea to begin an investigation into the matter, the country's security police said on Monday.' www.reuters.com/world/europe...