Banger post on the buzziest (but fuzziest) phenomenon in institutional investing, from @tobyn.bsky.social naturally. on.ft.com/47MeI73

Who knew that gilts loved the idea of broad-based tax measures (i.e., rises) over a charcuterie board of narrow measures. 🤷🏻‍♂️

I....cant... anymore.....😭 take the change in job openings by industry. Plot it against the change in employment by industry. The sectors with the biggest REDUCTIONS in job openings also saw the largest INCREASES in employment. US, France, UK all the same story ChatGPT my ass

Buzzed that @thedailyshot.bsky.social is back!

Lots of factors getting rekt out there. Momentum one example but MS indices for Value (+3.3% today), Quality (+3.1% today), and Beta (-4.3% today) are all seeing super punchy moves.

The last 10 years for the median stock has been... less than ideal

State street has been publishing some interesting research lately. The one that caught my eye is on market concentration risk. According to their results, there is no predictive power in market concentration for future risk/returns. globalmarkets.statestreet.com/research/por...

Notwithstanding Friday’s sell-off, gold’s run this year has been something else. It’s beaten the Mag7 & Nvidia YTD.

Notwithstanding Friday’s sell-off, gold’s run this year has been something else. It’s beaten the Mag7 & Nvidia YTD.

Yesterday was the first day in a long time that gold prices rose (black) and the Dollar fell (blue). Ever since Jackson Hole on August 22, the rise in gold has been about a flight to safety out of ALL fiat currencies, but that changed yesterday. Tariffs caused a flight out of the Dollar into gold...

Goldman Sachs publishes a note on the curve steepener trade stalling on Friday Politics in Japan and France over the weekend: not so fast

Well, this is dramatic

The Fed funds rate is weird and alphaville highlighted how a Fed governor called it out. This is why I go to alphaville and exactly why you should too.

it's Tonty Time

In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong". Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!

This chart rules

UK long-dated bond yields are off their highest levels (chart), but they have settled in a range that significantly increases debt-servicing costs for both new issuance and rolled-over debt. This is now a common phenomenon in advanced economies, which, for countries like Britain and France... 1 of 2

For every buyer, there is a seller…but there might be more more buyers than sellers

Crazy chart from @bcaresearch.bsky.social showing the central bank cycle (note not the size of cuts or hikes just the direction). In a world that is hard to read, seems CBs are generally comfortable with the view that the global economy is weakening.

The physicist and hedge fund manager on why the efficient markets theory is ‘all wrong’, economists with ‘mathematics envy’ — and what Camus can teach us about compromise: on.ft.com/4pwdNy9

money. the answer is money. literally the first item is a jacket for £2,750 I 🧡 HTSI

JP Morgan counters the currently prevailing narrative by which the electricy demand fromdata centers justified new gas power plants. JP Morgan: solar + wind are the 'strategic solution' as they can be 'deployed faster' than gas. www.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/...

Robin is pointing out something that’s in all of our faces, but as he correctly states we haven’t really internalised yet. Japanese markets and rates are in a different era.

Carlos to Jannik: "I'm seeing you more than my family."

Chinese household loan growth bifurcation

If this isn’t the sign of a new era I don’t know what is

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz

What a way to start a month. Thanks Goldman 🫩

Not hard to see tons of articles, charts, etc showing how expensive the US/Large Cap/Growth (all basically different names for SP500 exposure) is. Haven’t seen how cheap everything is relative to that.

Acquired dropping another nearly 5 hour episode on Google? Guess that’s my Thursday then. @acquiredfm.bsky.social

"The independence of the Federal Reserve is not some technocratic nicety. It is the bedrock of US economic stability and global leadership."

@girinathan.bsky.social has written such a fantastic book-length treatment about ATP tennis and the Sincaraz rivalry. Didn’t even know that was possible in their careers. Thank you! Chapter 8 about Medvedev was a particular favourite surprisingly. H/T @the2ndserve.bsky.social

Market really feels like it’s going off of vibes/pressure rather than fundamentals. Why would Fed cut it CPI is staying stubbornly high otherwise? My sense is JPow is going to dig in to try to support Fed’s independence particularly after Lisa Cook comments made by WH.

red = bad btw

Fantastic chart @gilesyb.bsky.social guest-editing top of the charts! Fiscal restraint in out-turns (for a variety of legitimate reasons) really hasn’t been seen in the UK since the turn of the century.

Jannik Sinner after beating Alcaraz to win Wimbledon "How was it having to avoid a champagne cork?" Jannik: "Only here at Wimbledon." 😭😭😭😭 🍾

Jannik Sinner on the upcoming traditional Wimbledon champion’s dance with Iga Swiatek: "That's a problem. I'm not really good at dancing. But come on… I can handle it” 😂😂😂

Finally. www.ft.com/content/e99e...

An incredible resource recently published by @cambridgeup.bsky.social - incredibly helpful for anyone curious or needing to know more about portfolio optimisation! Comes with code, examples, etc. portfoliooptimizationbook.com

As Mohamed says - really hard to take these numbers as direction for travel on tariffs, impacts, etc.

🚨Reform made huge gains in the local elections. But as well as winning councils, they won influence on £100bn of LGPS pension assets. A US-style war on 'woke investments' looks to be coming to UK asset mgmt. on.ft.com/3ZhOh4j

On April 29, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.7%. The final alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold, is -1.5%: bit.ly/32EYojR. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: bit.ly/2TPeYLT#GDP

Confused over who's in the running to become the next pope? But you do have some knowledge of financial-crisis era central bankers? This is the thread for you!

Took me a few days to digest the report doing the rounds from Knut Kjaer. Some seriously good stuff in there for asset allocators. Key takeaway: we should step back from the models for a moment (MVO, etc.) & think about where we want exposure fundamentally as risk-adj returns rely on system working.

The falling Dollar is worrying. Up until recently, markets pushed USD down because they believed tariffs would hurt US growth more than elsewhere. Rate differentials moved against the US, pulling the Dollar down. But now rate differentials are spiking and USD is still falling. Unusual and worrying.

MOAR BUNDS!

Great piece by @katie0martin.ft.com. Really aligns with my own thinking. Highlights that no matter what, the world’s alleged risk-free just got riskier. Bunds anyone? on.ft.com/43PSUWr

Nowhere to hide, every sector and subsector is red

Bond yields up beyond the very front end. This is *really* not good.