Conviction in the short USD trade dropped to the lowest level since Liberation Day - BofA research

Some interesting thoughts from RBC BlueBay's Mark Dowding on the next Fed chair and Fed independence Sees Bessent as the frontrunner and Trump rate-cutting pressure not as much of an issue

Goldman Sachs: Why we are not in a bubble... yet "We see key differences" to previous bubbles Eg tech appreciation driven by fundamental growth from companies with strong balance sheets Tech valuations "are becoming stretched" but "not yet at levels consistent with historical bubbles"

NEW: Zero-day contracts become dominant force in S&P 500 options market ADV in zero-day options hit a record 2.5m contracts in September, now representing ~ 60% of all S&P 500 options volumes www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

NEW: Larry Ellison pledges 30% of his Oracle shares in loans Regulatory filings indicate Ellison increased his use of margin loans over the past year Comes as the tech magnate is increasingly active deploying his vast wealth to backstop corporate takeovers www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

NEW: Zero-day contracts become dominant force in S&P 500 options market ADV in zero-day options hit a record 2.5m contracts in September, now representing ~ 60% of all S&P 500 options volumes www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

Goldman Sachs publishes a note on the curve steepener trade stalling on Friday Politics in Japan and France over the weekend: not so fast

Nikkei 225 up 5%, yen off 2%, 30yr JGB yields 15bp higher is quite a set of moves

NEW: UK remains top FX and derivatives trading hub Half of all interest rate derivatives trading activity in April took place in the UK, according to the BIS, up from 43% in 2022 London’s share of FX trading also held steady at 38% www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

NEW: The data centre investment boom is providing a fast-growing line of business for investment banks Record amounts of debt being underwritten for these mega projects, often paired with bespoke, deal contingent derivatives hedges 👇 www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

NEW: The data centre investment boom is providing a fast-growing line of business for investment banks Record amounts of debt being underwritten for these mega projects, often paired with bespoke, deal contingent derivatives hedges 👇 www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

NEW: Banks ride gold rush trading bonanza Banks' precious metals trading revenues were up >60% to over $1bn in H1, says Coalition Greenwich On track for their best year in over a decade “This is the most interest and enthusiasm for gold I’ve seen in my entire career" www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

NEW: Banks ride gold rush trading bonanza Banks' precious metals trading revenues were up >60% to over $1bn in H1, says Coalition Greenwich On track for their best year in over a decade “This is the most interest and enthusiasm for gold I’ve seen in my entire career" www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

"By 2029, we expect 20% fewer wealth and asset managers" - Morgan Stanley

NEW: Nonbanks' trading growth stalls in $7.5trn FX market Nonbank trading firms made $2.1bn in FX marketmaking in 2024, Coalition Greenwich estimates, ~ flat from 2021 Banks, by comparison, increased FX revenues 32% to $39.4bn Story and 🧵on this rare trading slowdown www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

NEW: Nonbanks' trading growth stalls in $7.5trn FX market Nonbank trading firms made $2.1bn in FX marketmaking in 2024, Coalition Greenwich estimates, ~ flat from 2021 Banks, by comparison, increased FX revenues 32% to $39.4bn Story and 🧵on this rare trading slowdown www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

Deutsche Bank on gold prices rising 42% this year to fresh record highs: "Gold prices [are] well on track for their strongest annual performance since 1979, when prices surged +127% against the backdrop of the oil crisis after the Iranian Revolution"

Dollar index at its lowest level since early July

NEW: Bank of America's succession battle hots up Jim DeMare, the BofA's trading chief, has been named co-president alongside regional banking head, Dean Athanasia Puts them in line to succeed Brian Moynihan, the longest serving major US bank CEO behind Jamie Dimon www.ifre.com/people-and-m...

Sterling has quietly inched its way up to $1.36 against the dollar, highest level in over two months

I wrote about how a third of Elon Musk's stake in Tesla is tied up in margin loans, underlining how Musk continues to lean on his nearly US$250bn-worth of shares as a source of cash www.ifre.com/people-and-m...

I wrote about how a third of Elon Musk's stake in Tesla is tied up in margin loans, underlining how Musk continues to lean on his nearly US$250bn-worth of shares as a source of cash www.ifre.com/people-and-m...

Barclays predicts the Banks of England will slow quantitative tightening to £75-80bn a year from current level of £100bn "We also expect a sign that the BoE executive will be more flexible with the maturity profile of sales, enabling it to limit sales in the long end as appropriate over the year"

There's always an IFR angle... Prudence, James and Elizabeth Murdoch raised $1.37bn through a block sale of News Corp and Fox shares to Morgan Stanley overnight Monday Follows Rupert Murdoch's landmark deal to cut the three out of his succession plans www.ifre.com/equities/231...

EU bond futures start trading today www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

French-German 10-year spread flat/slightly tighter since French government fell on Monday Confirms this was the base case among investors, who had hedged heavily using futures in the run-up to the no confidence vote (see story link) Question is, where to now? www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

One for the bonds geeks: Did yields on 10-year France and Italy bonds really cross? Not if you look at bonds with close enough maturities, as my excellent colleague Divyang Shah notes Or zero coupon constant maturity swaps Still pretty close though! www.ifre.com/rates/231076...

UK 10-year Gilts are Goldman Sachs' top cross-asset investment pick over the next six months Forecasts yields to drop 40bp and a total return of 6.1% VS return of 1.6% for Treasuries, 2.2% for the S&P500 Only sees gold as producing better returns over the next year

NEW: Betting on the cost of leveraging US stocks has never been so popular Yes, that's right, another niche derivatives market is booming Welcome to the wonderful world of equity repo www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

NEW: Derivatives volumes soar ahead of crunch French vote Trading activity in French government bond futures jumped to record highs last week Comes as investors scrambled to hedge ahead of today's no-confidence vote www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

30yr gilt yield continues fall towards 5.5% after the weak US jobs report, for anyone still keeping track Cable also back above $1.35

Decent rally in long-end yields today (spot the odd one out, Japan) Just in time for everyone's big thought pieces on the long-end selloff to publish

Exclusive: US trading firm Jane Street files case against India markets regulator, document shows reut.rs/3VvgjqF

Jane Street continues to make out like bandits www.ft.com/content/c1d7...

How on earth do we still have over TWO MONTHS until the budget Make it stop bsky.app/profile/reut...

NEW: Crisis, what crisis? UK 10-year lands new records for size and demand Record £141bn of orders for UK's £14bn 10yr debt sale today Previous record book (£140bn) and deal size (£13bn) came in February, also on a 10yr Some investors clearly like higher yields www.ifre.com/region/23066...

NEW: Crisis, what crisis? UK 10-year lands new records for size and demand Record £141bn of orders for UK's £14bn 10yr debt sale today Previous record book (£140bn) and deal size (£13bn) came in February, also on a 10yr Some investors clearly like higher yields www.ifre.com/region/23066...

UK's 10-year £14bn debt sale today was over 10x covered (iie books over £140bn) - IFR Coupon set at 4.75%

Profile of UBS's new-look trading division - the fastest growing bank in global markets right now Revenues up nearly 2x as much as peers over last 18 months We talk to UBS's trading chief about how the Credit Suisse takeover turbocharged its growth strategy www.ifre.com/people-and-m...

Few quick bond charts to put some context around the recent long-end moves (LSEG/Tradeweb data) Over past month, France and UK leading the way higher in 30yr yields

One of world's largest private credit investors claims liquidity in public and private credit markets is "converging" And in some cases private credit may be more liquid 🤨

BlueBay's Mark Dowding calling for the Bank of England (under quantitative tightening) and UK Debt Management Office to halt sales of long-dated UK debt to "buy the government more time"

French five-year CDS at a nearly 4-month high at 38bp Worth noting that's still inside USA 5y CDS at 40bp, and well below the recent jump in April following Liberation Day

Full story: CDS market passes Altice debt test www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

NEW: Altice debt restructuring poses stern test for CDS market An auction to settle CDS contracts on Altice France is happening this morning But the outcome is in the balance after the telecoms company imposed a lock up on 95% of its bonds www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

Goldman Sachs on how the rally in credit has been much broader than the rally in equities

Enjoyed this on the lost art of admitting what you don't know - a particularly important skill in financial journalism One of my favourite questions over the years: can you talk me through this as if you were explaining it to a small child? www.ft.com/content/2d64...

NEW: Societe Generale gains ground in fixed income trading push SocGen's drive to expand in fixed income starting to bear fruit: spot FX volumes up 70-80% this year Part of broader push to diversify its trading division beyond structured equity derivatives www.ifre.com/people-and-m...

NEW: Societe Generale gains ground in fixed income trading push SocGen's drive to expand in fixed income starting to bear fruit: spot FX volumes up 70-80% this year Part of broader push to diversify its trading division beyond structured equity derivatives www.ifre.com/people-and-m...

NEW: Bank trading bonanza continues in second quarter Banks' trading revenues set to rise 10-15% in Q2, Coalition Greenwich says Equities trading leading the way again - up 20-25% Fixed income up 5-10% on the back of strong FX trading results www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...