I fear Labour people risk falling into an ecological fallacy visible from space when reacting to these results. Here is what is very clear in results so far: Labour are losing *seats* to Reform, but... Labour are losing *votes* to the Greens Greens split the vote, Ref comes thru middle

We are hiring! Survation is looking for a Junior Research and Data Analyst to join our team. More info: www.survation.com/survation-is...

Given how voters usually respond instinctively negatively towards anything Starmer does, these seem like pretty good numbers for him

This is not a robust way to assess the potential of a new party, the “new entry” is given prominence vs the alternatives - so what you see is more of a survey effect than a real vote intention. I imagine the % of people who even know what this party *is* is close to 1%

Much of the pol sci analysis has positioned McSweeney as a veto player against a proper policy reset. If that's true, then Keir Starmer now has his first real opening to reset on policy lines - the question is whether he now uses it - I think we can avoid rushing to judgement.

Anyway, obviously very, very important not to be blasé about an actual armed conflict with the US, but I do genuinely think over this year the US is suddenly going to find out that "being the most powerful country in the world" is still fundamentally reliant on having allies.

RIP Chris Rea youtu.be/FJCg_3DfKvU

Survation October Newsletter: Long Nights, Illuminating Insights This month, we've covered Welsh politics, the Labour deputy leadership election, and much more. Read in full: shorturl.at/D7Bav Subscribe to our mailing list here: eepurl.com/mOK8P 🧵 1/6

Note of caution on More in Common’s MRP showing a chunky Reform overall majority. It is based on a *10pt* REF lead over LAB. The pollster’s regular VI is just a 3 pt lead. MRP is not very good at getting national shares correct and needs assistance - which does not appear to have happened here.

Ballotbox.scot with their usual excellent coverage of our Scotland polling this week: ballotbox.scot/survation-se...

Some thoughts on our new poll of Labour members on behalf of @labourlist.bsky.social: Disappointed By Labour's Direction, Labour Members Turn To Lucy Powell in the Deputy Leader Race: mailchi.mp/survation/ne...

Labour's Next Deputy Leader? In terms of an ideological battle, there’s likely little perceived difference between Lucy Powell and Bridget Phillipson. In our councillor perceptions study of MPs on economic issues (mpsleftright.co.uk), both scored near-identical results.

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention RFM 30 (+3) LAB 24 (-) CON 19 (-1) LD 11 (-2) GRN 8 (-) OTH 6 (-2) F/w 28th August- 2nd September 2025. Changes vs 2nd June. 🧵1/5

Could Labour’s hope for the future be gaining tactical votes from Green & LibDem supporters? 👀 Polling guru @damiansurvation.bsky.social breaks down this strategic dilemma in the latest episode of The Political Marketing Podcast. politicaladvertising.co.uk/2025/07/19/p...

Great post about the limitations of ONS data and why being governed by statistical noise is the current state of affairs!

Signs you are getting old #342. The homemade Father’s Day cards reach political satire level:

Where are Reform’s new voters coming from in Scotland? More than 1 in 5 Labour voters from the 2024 general election are now intending on switching to Reform, with 1 in 4 Tory voters intending on making the switch also. New analysis from Survation's Fred Power: www.survation.com/new-survatio...

Ahead of the locals, I shared some thoughts with @alexrogerssky in that Reform could pose a real threat to Labour in "post-industrial" areas potentially receptive to a message of "protectionism, industrial revival, and national self-sufficiency". news.sky.com/story/how-ni...

In by-elections, losing parties often find some solace in blaming low turnout - not so in Runcorn & Helsby. While turnout yesterday was lower than at the 2024 general election in that seat - it was still higher than in 19 other constituencies at GE 2024:

Consensus seat forecast for net LE seat gains (Baxter, Hayward, Freedman, Fisher, Walker, Booth). I don't know yet if we will be told this would be a "very bad night for Labour" 😉

NEW: How did Labour members react to the Spring Statement? Our latest poll with @labourlist.bsky.social shows: - Sharp drops in cabinet favourability - Disapproval of welfare reforms - Pessimism ahead of May’s elections @vlazarov.bsky.social breaks down the findings 🧵 Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7f0

NEW: We’re excited to unveil a new partnership with @survation.bsky.social – polling Labour members among our readership. We think it’s important to highlight the full range and nuances of members’ views. Send us ideas for Qs at [email protected]. Some findings…🧵 labourlist.org/2025/03/cabi...

@lordashcroft.bsky.social's polling in Runcorn & Helsby shows Labour have a turnout problem they will need to fix if there's any chance of squeaking a victory. Just 55% of LAB 2024 GE voters say they will definitely vote, vs 78% of REF voters and 70% of CON: lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/03/runc...

Maybe there is such a thing as bad publicity? Tesla’s crash back towards reality, in several charts: www.ft.com/content/ca1c...

Pleased to see @politico.com’s article today “Top Trump allies hold secret talks with Zelenskyy’s Ukrainian opponents” featured our new Ukraine polling - which serves as a useful reality check on Zelenskyy’s true popularity: www.politico.eu/article/dona...

Trump slapping tariffs on Canada like they’re a global supervillain while giving Russia a free pass. Exactly what did Trudeau do to deserve this?

Is Zelenskyy losing public support at home? With strained US-Ukr relations, & Trump calling Zelenskyy a "dictator without elections" with a "4% approval" rating - where does public opinion in Ukraine actually stand? Approval, trust, and attitudes on war & peace: www.survation.com/is-zelenskyy...

Another day of US markets getting roiled again by Trump's tariff talk - US equities are now lower than inauguration day for the first time. Europe & Chi-na doing very well: Global market performance since Trump's Second Inauguration (Jan 20, 2025 - Feb 27, 2025)

Initial market reaction to the German exit polls of either a CDU/CSU + SPD coalition or involvement of the FDP (if they make the 5% cut) is relief. The DAX index is trading +0.53% the Euro +0.33%

Was TikTok’s algorithm manipulated at the Romanian election? Our new poll suggests that young people in Romania lack trust in the platform. 47% of young Romanians saw far-right candidate Călin Georgescu “very often” on TikTok before the annulled election—far exceeding other candidates.

Roses are red Violets are blue This may look exciting But most likely just skew

Headmaster Starmer faces questions from the Debating Society: my PMQs SKETCH: thecritic.co.uk/the-...

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries & UK gilts reflect borrowing costs for those governments. Here's how UK and US government 10 yr borrowing costs have trended over the past 3 months. Without checking - which one is the world's strongest economy and which is the country apparently in a crisis?

@labourlist.bsky.social have a piece out this morning "What is behind Labour’s polling woes and what can the party do to turn the tide?" with comments from @christabelcoops.bsky.social @chrishopkins92.bsky.social @luketryl.bsky.social and myself. labourlist.org/2025/01/labo...

Reviewing 2024, @jackpeacock1.bsky.social assesses the political landscape as we enter the new year. Final Westminster Voting Intention of 2024: LAB 30% (-4) CON 25% (+1) REF 20% (+6) LD 11% (-1) GRE 7% (-) SNP 2% (-1) OTH 4% (-3) F/w 12th - 16th December. Changes vs. 2024 General Election.

Survation’s recent polling of the British public on behalf of 38 Degrees finds majority support for a ban on wealthy foreign nationals donating large sums of money to British Political parties, and opposition to Elon Musk becoming influential in British politics. www.survation.com/what-role-sh...

Luigi Mangione’s manifesto reveals a straightforward motive: ‘The US has the #1 most expensive healthcare system in the world, yet we rank roughly #42 in life expectancy.’ Could he make more impact - tipping opinion than Michael Moore or Bernie Sanders? www.kenklippenstein.com/p/luigis-man...

Alan at Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot with an excellent run through of our recent Scotland polling: Labour's vote share undergoing a bit of a wobble: ballotbox.scot/survation-no...

Important from Adam Corlett on the ONS' Labour Force Survey. LFS is the means by which we benchmark national-level statistics on employment, unemployment & economic activity. Adam estimates the LFS has been underestimating growth in the workforce by a whopping 930,000 jobs. Also FT article here: