New preprint 📑 Fast inference in HMMs with latent Gaussian fields (via SPDE approach + RTMB) ⚡️ 🔗 arxiv.org/abs/2603.17469 We modify the forward algorithm to recover a sparse Hessian ➡️ Fast automatic Laplace approximation Case studies: 1) Detecting stellar flares 2) Lion movement w spatial field

LaMa and RTMBdist updated 😊

Published in @jappliedecology.bsky.social!😀 We show how (Hierarchical) Hidden Markov Models ((H)HMMs) can be tailored to different epidemiological scenarios to infer disease status directly from animal movement data. 🔗 ttps://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2664.70323

webRios is live. #rstats on your iPhone and iPad. I showed native R compilation on #iOS last week. Shipping it is another story (thanks, GPL). This version uses #webR 's #WebAssembly build instead. Different tradeoffs, but this one clears App Review. apps.apple.com/us/app/webri...

We have a new preprint on covariate-driven #HMMs! doi.org/10.48550/arX... @olemole.bsky.social, @rolandlangrock.bsky.social • commonly used hypothetical stationary distribution can be biased⚠️ • we propose 2 approaches allowing unbiased inference • simulations and case study on Galápagos tortoises🐢🗺️

⬛🟦⚪ Two years in the making! In a fantastic collaboration with Miguel from the International Labour Organisation! 🖤💙 The 'bpvars' package for Forecasting with Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressions is out on CRAN! And it's spectacular! cran.r-project.org/package=bpvars #bpvars #bsvars.org #rstats

Our paper on #HMMs with periodically ⏰ varying transition probabilities is published! 🎉 @carlinafeldmann.bsky.social, Sina Mews, @rmichels.bsky.social @rolandlangrock.bsky.social doi.org/10.1214/25-AOAS2107 We derive the periodically #stationary distribution and the implied dwell-time distribution

%notin% is coming to Base R! Heck to the yes. We are truly blessed on this day, thank you R Core. 🤩 #rstats

Day 2: devtools - Essential Development Workflow 🔧 The devtools package streamlines your package development workflow with key functions! ⚡ 💡 Pro Tip: Use Ctrl/Cmd + Shift + L in RStudio to quickly run load_all(). 📚 Resources: devtools.r-lib.org #RPackageDev #RStats #devtools #RPackageAdvent2025

We have a preprint about modelling three-dimensional movement tracks, led by @njklappstein.bsky.social. The model takes the form of a step selection function and, just like in 2D, it can include directional persistence, attraction to targets, and habitat selection. doi.org/10.1101/2025...

moveHMM version 1.0 turns 10 today 🎉 Such a fun 10 years; exchanging with folks who use the package (and its extensions) has been one of the best parts of my job!

Our review paper on latent Markov models is now published in Statistical Modelling! 🎉 @rolandlangrock.bsky.social @SinaMews. We discuss choosing the right time and space formulation and provide the R package 📦 LaMa for fast ⚡and flexible estimation. 📄 Paper: journals.sagepub.com/eprint/UETXX...

My paper is out! 🎉 I explore hidden semi-Markov models with covariate-dependent state dwell-time distributions — because sometimes Markov just isn’t enough. Case study: Arctic muskox movement! 🦬📊 🔗 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... #stats #TimeSeries #HSMM #StatisticalEcology #rstats

Rdatasets is a collection of 2300 free and documented datasets in CSV format. It's a great resource for teaching and exploration! The new `get_dataset()` function from the {marginaleffects} 📦 allows you to search and load them directly in #Rstats. vincentarelbundock.github.io/Rdatasets/ar...

happy first birthday to Bluesky, and what a year it's been! with every day, the need for an open network that puts people first becomes increasingly clear. we're glad to be building this with you. after all, the heart of a social network is the people.

The world is on 🔥 -- and here's my first publication in an astronomy journal: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3... We combine Gaussian processes + hidden Markov models to efficiently detect stellar flares in one modelling step. 🧪

Could watch this animation all day 😍 Did you know that you can create GIFs with gganimate()? They can even be embedded in a latex PDF file and played via Adobe Acorbat Reader 💥 #ggplot #gganimate #datavisualisation #statisticalmodelling #finance #economics #quants

I'm just saying this is syntatically correct #rstats code

2024 @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social #climate data out today: 📈 2024 - first year more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial; for ERA5 it was 1.6ºC 🌡️ the past 10 years were the 10 warmest years on record 📈 2024 was warmest year for all continental regions, except Antarctica and Australasia 🌍🌡️🧪⚒️🌊

Quite a nice watch: youtu.be/TE4R8bumI-Q?...

In this year‘s NFL Big Data Bowl 🏈 submission, @rmichels.bsky.social, Robert Bajons, and I employ hidden Markov models to uncover 🔎guarding assignments and use this additional information to improve the prediction of defensive strategies. 📊 #bigdatabowl #rstats

Big Data Bowl submissions are due tomorrow 🚨🚨 The deadline is 11:59 PM UTC, which is 6:59 PM EST 🚨🚨 #BigDataBowl

The {matrixStats} #RStats 📦 “provides highly optimized functions for computing common summaries over rows and columns of matrices, e.g. rowQuantiles(). There are also functions that operate on vectors.” By @henrikbengtsson.bsky.social github.com/HenrikBengts...

I crunch a lot of numbers to ultimately tell people „yeah this thing may or may not happen idk“.

What a year! Bluesky opened its doors just last February. Since then, we opened federation, launched video, rolled out trending topics, and a whole lot more. Happy New Year, and here’s to a great year ahead! 🎉

Every time it’s called a classifier, somewhere, a statistician dies. 😵‍💫 #stats #ML

Ooooooo arxiv.org/abs/2401.00649

Sina Mews, Roland Langrock, and I have updated 🆕 our review paper! It offers a comprehensive overview on choosing the right time ⏰ and space 📏 formulation for latent Markov models, providing a unifying perspective on discrete- and continuous-time HMMs, SSMs and MMPPs. 👉 arxiv.org/abs/2406.19157

You will be visited by three ghosts

I feel like not enough people know about Quarto for creating documents. How it works: Write in markdown and use Quarto to convert it to html, pdf, epub, ... I produce my books with Quarto (web + ebook + print version). But you can also use it for websites, reports, dashboards, ... quarto.org