❗️EU authorities demand urgent explanations from Hungary after leaked recordings reveal FM Szijjarto shared internal EU and national discussions with Russia between 2023 and 2025. Lawmakers are also pushing to restrict access to sensitive information for pro-Russian officials within EU institutions.

On 4 March, French Defence Minister Vautrin dropped quite the bomb in an interview with Etienne Ouvrier of Le Dauphine regarding French stocks of HEU and plutonium: France has enough recoverable material from dismantled warheads for new warheads. 1/8 www.ledauphine.com/defense-guer...

This thread about the blast radius of bombs is going around but it’s ridiculously inaccurate, which is why quoting and replying are disabled. PSA it’s misinformation slop.

Yeah, when pro-Israel voices say that the US military commits war crimes just like the IDF, I want to throw hands.

Meanwhile, the USAF isn’t procuring MAWS for F-15EX

2 things 1 Everyone should calm down, the US is not going to nuke Tehran. 2 Trump’s genocidal rhetoric is absolutely repugnant and should be instantly condemned in any decent society, regardless of politics, and it is pathetic and a sign of the times that this man is president

Have you ever heard of MMIII?

Few words on NATO nuclear deterrence by Jim Stokes (frmr NATO Director of Nuclear Policy) and Yanitsa Dyakova (NATO Nuclear Policy) www.jwc.nato.int/wp-content/u...

As for the possible Qaem payload- Iranians have some experience with graphite-filled carbon-phenolic (C-Ph) composites (for nozzles, the technology for TPS is fairly similar in that regard) even though they have never tested RVs at such ranges. Not speaking about the accuracy, likely horrible

Trilateral/3-body deterrence dynamics are spooky and might be intrinsically unstable. Guess we are going to find out!

I'm gonna say it: Bob is at least directionally right even if I do not agree on all of his prescriptions. "We build, they build. We stop, they build" is back on the menu. It takes two to arms race, but we are categorically NOT the initiators if this race begins in earnest.

TLAM, LRASM, JASSM and LRAShCM-N are really bad ideas but other points are quite sensible from the planning perspective. Agree that most of this aren’t happening. At least GLCM should happen though, even if it’s difficult to containerise SLCM-N (use control features)

This is one of my favorite products to produce because it is about getting the terrain to tell a story to the staff.

This is very good on how the cult of tactics and lethality is about to do serious damage to US PME I'd add that anti-intellectualism is a major threat to PME elsewhere, too

True in a technical sense, tho it’s important to note that in modern conflicts (Iran is no exception), the air dominance is localised to enable the mission objectives. So it is “localised total” air dominance

IYKYK

Re school strike-it likely wasn't a problem with the use of outdated imagery, it was an error in assessing the nature of the target. The planner relied on outdated intel and, based on the imagery he received he created a strike plan. You’d be surprised how much old info planning often relies on 1/2

I have had quite deep and lengthy on and off record discussions on these topics with researchers and NATO officers, but unfortunately it is true that institutional learning is slower than slow.

Ukrainian Special Forces Operations drones destroyed a Russian 9C19 Ginger radar station and an S-300V air defense system near Mariupol overnight, using domestically produced FP-2 drones with 100kg warheads. #Ukraine

Cross-posting it here from Twitter TL/DR - yes, a lot:) Interception geometry matters for endo-atmospheric TBM defence. A MaRV headed straight at the launcher is a different engagement from one aimed a few kilometres aside, particularly once overflight and rear-sector cases arise. 1/16

Interesting paper. One anchor point in the discussion that I am curious about is this, regarding selection effects & US ED. "I find no evidence that the US...extended its nuclear deterrence to states that were particularly more likely to be targeted by the Soviet Union's military challenges."

Something I couldn't possibly comment on, but would like to pull the pin on the discursive hand grenade for anyway, is more granularity when we talk about nuclear latency. There is a spectrum from "we have some plutonium somewhere" to "I have one cable left to plug in before launch". Details matter!

Interesting paper. There are also other reasons for expansion than just the credibility of extended deterrence, but it is definitely worth reading and food for thought.

Incidentally, it is deliberately designed as a limited operation to study what effects can be achieved in such a format, as this is apparently what the administration is considering. It is not what I would consider reasonable, and the number of sorties is at the lower end of what is realistic.

Hypothetical Iran scenario: US launches limited but intense air/naval campaign against Iran (personally, not a fan of limited efforts btw, but....) Goal: degrade remaining nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and IRGC/Basij command to prevent breakout & deter proxies. Joint US-Israel effort 1/12

They reinvented MBB’s Sänger, I see

Well well, if it isn't the KKV brothers.

The situation is obviously much, much worse than during the Caribbean missile crisis in October 1962, when it was seven minutes. I wonder for how many seconds they will set it when the New Start expires and the US announces uploading.

1-6 "Denmark was ready for battle ... The order was issued as recently as last week. If Greenland were attacked, contrary to expectations, Danish soldiers would be ready with live ammunition." www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...

"'We are discussing how to protect Europe with a nuclear deterrent with or without the United States,' one of the European officials said. Another described the discussions among European leaders about ways to guard against a nuclear-armed Russia without the U.S. as 'intense and productive.'"

Americans cannot fully comprehend the horror of what they have done by forcing the rest of Europe to concede that de Gaulle was correct

Some nice images of Boeing-Rockwell-RD LEAP III kinetic kill vehicle. You can also see it mounted on what looks like a Minuteman ICBM next to a RV.

Apparently a Russian heavy decoy released along the threat corridor (in a post-boost phase). Penetration packages (including these) constitute a 25-30% of payload (depending on the mission profile). Nice of them to let us examine the characteristics of their RVs and penetration aids.

Well, f*** you, you idiotic egomaniac. People died because they listened to the call of the US. I myself know ppl who were injured,and I know of those who literally lost loved ones in Afghanistan.Excuse me for not being diplomatic,this trampling on the memory of dead NATO soldiers angers me greatly

Gotta admit, this is the first time my words have appeared in USA Today (at least to my knowledge). No, I'm not quoted in the article, but, in spite of the credit given to an Air Force General, I coined the phrase "nuclear sponge" to describe the strategy of maintaining lots of aim points (1)

Thx:) I added in X thread (where I attached this screenshot cos I’m lazy person) “This is an open prediction, and I would be very happy to be wrong, but I would be a very poor analyst if I said what I wanted to hear and replaced judgment with wishful thinking. This is probably how it will happen”

A bit late (I can recommend logging off for a moment from time to time), but still - folks, all the best for the new year. May the 2026 be better than 2025. Also, have a meme.

#SubSunday #Submarines Los Angeles-class Flight III nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Alexandria (SSN-757) commanded by CDR Mike Bernacchi surfaces in the North Polar Ice Cap region as she takes part in a joint USN/RN operation ICEX 2007. Photo by PO Phot Terry Seward.

First UK-France Nuclear Steering Group took place on 10 December. UK and France presented their national approaches to strengthening deterrence in Europe and confirmed desire to cooperate. They observed operation POKER, French strategic nuclear exercise. First time foreigners have done so.

ADLER is very much IN Sweden, only 2 nautical miles from the coast. Legally Sweden have much more legroom here then if she was outside our territory. Let's see if we use it. Onboard one would likely find weapons or supplies headed for Libya/Syria or similar Russian base.

This picture is clearly from Finland. If you know you know.

This is only "news" if one is new to the debate/discussion of hypersonic glide weapons. From the beginning, (i.e. the early 2000s), the Pentagon talked about these weapons as a "niche" capability or, more accurately, a "leading edge" capability. The goal was always to knock down the A2/AD doors. (1)

It contains a small amounts of HE to enhance the penetrators (lateral velocity)

🇸🇪 Sweden’s Navy confirms Russia is conducting a military operation in the Baltic Sea to protect its “shadow fleet” of oil tankers used to evade sanctions. Russian naval ships now regularly patrol key sea lanes; some tankers reportedly carry armed, uniformed personnel.

Ngl, this is hilarious

Get in, Jamelle. We're drowning Soviet motor rifle battalions in enhanced radiation yield.

Very sad to hear that Bill Burr at @NSArchive has passed away. Over the years his work of documenting nuclear history with targeted and relentless FOIA requests created The Nuclear Vault with invaluable collection of declassified documents and analysis. nsarchive.gwu.edu/project/nucl...

The unsuccessful SS-X-30 test suggests that the programme is experiencing problems (let the SLBM designer build a liquid-fueled, heavy ICBM) but they will eventually overcome them. This is quite worrying, albeit an expected development. 1/6