All these arguments about how the stuff we have is obsolete ignore how badly other countries want what we have. You know who doesn't think drones can replace cruise missiles? Ukraine. You know who doesn't think carriers and next gen fighters are obsolete? China.

In other words, it means "secure our interests with your own money without getting anything in return” The logical Q is why? Yes, Europe is now an object, but the question is for how long, the transatlantic relationship has always been complex and the US just undermined its most important pillar.

Seeing the current political scene in Europe, I understand why Washington thinks the way it does. But it's a double-edged sword - Washington's demands are outrageous. Americans often push the narrative that they are generously contributing to Europe, but that's not true. 1/2

An educational wargame focused on the decision-making process for students of one course at Anton Neuwirth College. I let the Baltonia get smashed by the Northern Federation. Was fun but gotta say it's also a bit challenging to work with untrained people -they’ve unrealistic expectations.

It turns out that the missile was launched from an SS-18 silo that was reconstructed for Dneper SLV launches so that means that it is highly likely that the missile was indeed SS-X-30 (SS-18s aren’t tested since 2014).

Unless they prepared silo for SS-X-30 test my best bet ‘d be the SS-19 (Dombarovskiy houses them),the SS-18s haven't been tested for quite some time, and I've been told that there is a big problem with the SS-19’s WSR, the missiles are getting old, and there is a need to address the Avangard carrier

Me: Okay, no politics at my place during thanksgiving Cat: Mao

This is a part of the direct messaging, NATO is *preparing for the possibility* and signals it in advance and intentionally creates a commitment trap (Russia is aware of it). It is necessary, have been long arguing that we need to do something of that nature (essentially almost risk-free but signal)

"Europe does not want war with a nuclear-armed Russia and so has to figure out how to respond in a way that deters Moscow but does not cross any Kremlin red lines." Europe needs to change its attitude. We need to be willing to run greater risks. Moscow will only be deterred if it fears escalation.

Friends, do not argue about politics today. But if you must, argue with the in-laws about test yield thresholds and the relative merits of a "zero yield" criterion. Not college football or Congress.

Too tired to write something substantial on Chinese paper today (I will probably do tomorrow, some things are imo interesting) but I have to say that the language (“a certain country”) and some framings (“Arms Control - okay, NFU!!!!”) gave an honest lol moments.

Future USS District of Columbia (SSBN 826) Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine front section arriving in Groton, Connecticut for final assembly - November 21, 2025 SRC: FB- Naval Sea Systems Command

Happy Thanksgiving to all my American friends. May you and your country prosper

In principle I appreciate diverse perspectives in the history of (nuclear) science & society. In practice, when it's as condescending as this, I find myself appreciating the would-be subjects of British imperial anthropology who drove their interlocutors off with spears and Martini-Henry rifles.

When I stumble across something positive in my news feed about Ukraine, anything at all, it feels like a huge, rare surprise. Most of the time it’s bombings, deaths, and destruction. So here I am, sharing one of those rare good things:

Todd Harrison is by resume at least no fool, but this is a very foolish idea, perhaps explained by the fact that in Mr. Harrison's long career he has never worked nuclear matters. This idea does not survive first contact with the facts of that domain. A very rare work related thread.

Some unfinished maps i recently did showing PLARF brigades and their reach. It also includes US MDTF systems that are being deployed right now. Also included are US-Allied bases in the region and what sort of assets they have regularly. Two DF-11 brigades not included.

Ex-Slovak MiG-29AS - you can see MFI-54 MFD panel on the right and PUS-29 input panel in the middle. Tail number (formerly) 3709. Also, all indicators in the cockpit are imperial and not metric, but this cannot be seen with this resolution.

A few comments on the proposed deal No ban on LRS and limiting the AFU to a 600k professional army are relatively favourable for Ukraine.The negative form of the guarantees is a problem;it can be assumed that Russia will simply use it for rearmament and preparation for further…

💡Have you read our latest FASI paper? Read as @sophyantrobus.bsky.social examines the development of the University Air Squadrons over the past century & explores how they remain a vital link between universities & the armed forces. 👇 www.kcl.ac.uk/warstudies/a...

Convair B-58 Нustlеr🧵 Continued

Wrong

It’s a reasonable assumption but there’s the thing - he already demonstrated that he doesn’t have a very good idea what departments do, specifically DOE. If we assume that “nuclear weapons” means delivery platforms and not devices we must on the other hand consider this as well

I am thinking about Clausewitz and his application in nuclear warfare (and deterrence). Is there any work that deals with the theoretical principle of war as an isolated vs. non-isolated act and a single short blow? 1/2

You rarely see Harriers flying. The last vestiges of the Cold War. That's actually why I went there. An amazing aircraft and the spirit of British engineering at its best #NATOdays

There was a discussion on Twitter about how would NATO counter mass,droned (100s-1000s OWA UAVs) all-azimuth raids,so I’m copy pasting what I wrote there. In short,the answer is dispersion,hardening,and taking decisive action but the devil is in the details A short thread (well not that short) 1/14

IIRC it’s a third such incident that has been publicised, I know of at least one other incident that has not been publicised. Considering the range of Gerbera (600km) and the fact that drones that fell on Lithuanian territory were found without explosives activated kinetically after… 1/3

Improved KILO class, a Russian design. Safe move for China, not revealing their more advanced Type-039B/C Yuan (or coming Type-041 Zhou) Suggests both countries still guarded on sub tech

Absolutely no change of US posture has happened. (Based on only unclass reports) there are always two or more subs at sea and a change of a launch zones to maximise Trident’s PTPs and strike effectiveness on selected targets is a known form of signalling that was used in the past.

(1/2) Nuclear deterrence: 30 years after the Chequers Declaration, a major strategic announcement will take place today as London and Paris will state they are opening the possibility to "coordinate" their nuclear deterrents and that they now protect Europe against "extreme threats".

Russia’s “Kherson Human Safari” has gone on for well over a year with limited outrage from the international community or media coverage. Every day they use drones to specifically target civilians for “target practice” & often post videos of them doing it proudly. Today they targeted a 1 year old.

Groupe de Supervision Nucléaire seems to be a way to bridge the cooperation between FR and the UK on bilateral level and secondly between GSN and NPG.It’s a creation of redundant structure,but bilateral coordination mechanism was necessary (and it’s a good thing also for cooperation within the NATO)

This should be viewed in the context of the June NPG meeting, which was described as "historic" and was preceded by the approval of new CTs/BBs -most notably strengthening the NATINADS capabilities. SSBNs patrols coordination and CSNO (bear gap patrolling) will certainly be addressed as well.

“a newly signed declaration will state for the first time that the respective deterrents of [UK & France] are independent but can be co-ordinated, and that there is no extreme threat to Europe that would not prompt a response by both nations.” www.gov.uk/government/n...

Powerful argumentation. You’ve “made” a C-V targeting method based not on studying what the enemy values, but on what you think might work, thus trapping u into what you want to avoid, while the enemy has no reason to trust you, since flexible retargeting against unplanned targets is a thing Cool

👇🏻 Funny is that I, do not recall anyone *seriously* discussing how extremely escalatory Avangard can be, a BGV with a 2,2-2,5 Mt warhead that can cruise below the NORAD radars horizons for a significant part of its trajectory with and ability to vary approach azimuth. It’s always only the US/NATO

Not only that. Aside from the fact that it uses criteria that are highly questionable (ineffectiveness of C-F, it's mainly about the ability to use the force after the start of the conflict, but whatever), but also this exactly paradoxically creates the escalation risks he wants to avoid.

This is objectively one of the worst recommendations one can imagine and undermines the very logic of deterrence as res existens. While I as a proponent of C-F strategies disagree, I can understand if one argues in favor of C-V targeting of what the enemy values…. 1/5

Good grief, has Acton taken leave of his senses entirely? This is a recipe for us to (a) largely not be able to deter Russia or China, because *they do not view these targets as too existential or precious to risk*, and (b) be largely helpless in the face of a Red disarming strike.

Money is less of an issue. In fact, the expansion of production is limited by other factors such as a lack of qualified workforce firsts and foremost. These people will have to be cleared, you thus need to adequately pay them, working with software, explosives etc require special skills etc, etc.

🤷🏼‍♂️

#OTD in 2008, the decommissioned USS Horne (CG-30) sank after being hit by three AGM-84 Harpoon missiles while being used as a target ship during RIMPAC. The Horne was the last of the Belknap-class cruisers due to all the others already having been scrapped or sunk.

“Some of the American refueling aircraft sent to the region during Operation Rising Lion supported the Israeli Air Force's refueling efforts. Hundreds of aerial refuelings were carried out for fighter jets flying to Iran” Saying quite part out loud;) www.israelhayom.com/2025/06/26/u...

Excellent thread by Nicole y’all should read. I would only add that weaponisation=/= pursuing a deterrent, building a bomb is only a first step. You have to ensure a survivable and robust chain of command (NC3) and a second strike capability. In case of Iran, it could probably be only TELs. 1/2

Wrong is right (1982) Kiss me deadly (1955) I'll Wake Up and Scald Myself with Tea (1977)

Agree. Also wish more scholars focused on military adaptation (in conflict) as opposed to innovation, which overwhelmingly focuses on materiel versus training, education, organization, doctrine…. You “go to war with the army you have.” It shouldn’t be the same army in year 2, unless you like dying

❗ #NavalNews #Submarines 1/2 "Rubin" Central Design Bureau is preparing a project to turn the Project 941UM Akula/TYPHOON-class SSBN "Dmitry Donskoy" (TK-208) into a museum boat. Source: tass.ru/armiya-i-opk... FYI @covertshores.bsky.social @alxluck.bsky.social @mikeplunkett.bsky.social

Yes, the Patriot battery on operational alert only turns the radar on when it receives advance warning.