Interesting paper. One anchor point in the discussion that I am curious about is this, regarding selection effects & US ED. "I find no evidence that the US...extended its nuclear deterrence to states that were particularly more likely to be targeted by the Soviet Union's military challenges."

Something I couldn't possibly comment on, but would like to pull the pin on the discursive hand grenade for anyway, is more granularity when we talk about nuclear latency. There is a spectrum from "we have some plutonium somewhere" to "I have one cable left to plug in before launch". Details matter!

Interesting paper. There are also other reasons for expansion than just the credibility of extended deterrence, but it is definitely worth reading and food for thought.

Incidentally, it is deliberately designed as a limited operation to study what effects can be achieved in such a format, as this is apparently what the administration is considering. It is not what I would consider reasonable, and the number of sorties is at the lower end of what is realistic.

Hypothetical Iran scenario: US launches limited but intense air/naval campaign against Iran (personally, not a fan of limited efforts btw, but....) Goal: degrade remaining nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and IRGC/Basij command to prevent breakout & deter proxies. Joint US-Israel effort 1/12

They reinvented MBB’s Sänger, I see

Well well, if it isn't the KKV brothers.

The situation is obviously much, much worse than during the Caribbean missile crisis in October 1962, when it was seven minutes. I wonder for how many seconds they will set it when the New Start expires and the US announces uploading.

1-6 "Denmark was ready for battle ... The order was issued as recently as last week. If Greenland were attacked, contrary to expectations, Danish soldiers would be ready with live ammunition." www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...

"'We are discussing how to protect Europe with a nuclear deterrent with or without the United States,' one of the European officials said. Another described the discussions among European leaders about ways to guard against a nuclear-armed Russia without the U.S. as 'intense and productive.'"

Americans cannot fully comprehend the horror of what they have done by forcing the rest of Europe to concede that de Gaulle was correct

Some nice images of Boeing-Rockwell-RD LEAP III kinetic kill vehicle. You can also see it mounted on what looks like a Minuteman ICBM next to a RV.

Apparently a Russian heavy decoy released along the threat corridor (in a post-boost phase). Penetration packages (including these) constitute a 25-30% of payload (depending on the mission profile). Nice of them to let us examine the characteristics of their RVs and penetration aids.

Well, f*** you, you idiotic egomaniac. People died because they listened to the call of the US. I myself know ppl who were injured,and I know of those who literally lost loved ones in Afghanistan.Excuse me for not being diplomatic,this trampling on the memory of dead NATO soldiers angers me greatly

Gotta admit, this is the first time my words have appeared in USA Today (at least to my knowledge). No, I'm not quoted in the article, but, in spite of the credit given to an Air Force General, I coined the phrase "nuclear sponge" to describe the strategy of maintaining lots of aim points (1)

🔺Northern Fleet Air activity At least one Russian Navy NFAF Tu-142 MPA concluded a nine hour sortie in the Barents Sea / Norwegian Sea, PM 6 January 2026. ⚠️Aircraft likely supported warship/subsurface ASW activity but may have conducted wider area surveillance (SUSCH) activity.

Thx:) I added in X thread (where I attached this screenshot cos I’m lazy person) “This is an open prediction, and I would be very happy to be wrong, but I would be a very poor analyst if I said what I wanted to hear and replaced judgment with wishful thinking. This is probably how it will happen”

A bit late (I can recommend logging off for a moment from time to time), but still - folks, all the best for the new year. May the 2026 be better than 2025. Also, have a meme.

#SubSunday #Submarines Los Angeles-class Flight III nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Alexandria (SSN-757) commanded by CDR Mike Bernacchi surfaces in the North Polar Ice Cap region as she takes part in a joint USN/RN operation ICEX 2007. Photo by PO Phot Terry Seward.

First UK-France Nuclear Steering Group took place on 10 December. UK and France presented their national approaches to strengthening deterrence in Europe and confirmed desire to cooperate. They observed operation POKER, French strategic nuclear exercise. First time foreigners have done so.

ADLER is very much IN Sweden, only 2 nautical miles from the coast. Legally Sweden have much more legroom here then if she was outside our territory. Let's see if we use it. Onboard one would likely find weapons or supplies headed for Libya/Syria or similar Russian base.

This picture is clearly from Finland. If you know you know.

This is only "news" if one is new to the debate/discussion of hypersonic glide weapons. From the beginning, (i.e. the early 2000s), the Pentagon talked about these weapons as a "niche" capability or, more accurately, a "leading edge" capability. The goal was always to knock down the A2/AD doors. (1)

It contains a small amounts of HE to enhance the penetrators (lateral velocity)

🇸🇪 Sweden’s Navy confirms Russia is conducting a military operation in the Baltic Sea to protect its “shadow fleet” of oil tankers used to evade sanctions. Russian naval ships now regularly patrol key sea lanes; some tankers reportedly carry armed, uniformed personnel.

Ngl, this is hilarious

Get in, Jamelle. We're drowning Soviet motor rifle battalions in enhanced radiation yield.

Very sad to hear that Bill Burr at @NSArchive has passed away. Over the years his work of documenting nuclear history with targeted and relentless FOIA requests created The Nuclear Vault with invaluable collection of declassified documents and analysis. nsarchive.gwu.edu/project/nucl...

The unsuccessful SS-X-30 test suggests that the programme is experiencing problems (let the SLBM designer build a liquid-fueled, heavy ICBM) but they will eventually overcome them. This is quite worrying, albeit an expected development. 1/6

All these arguments about how the stuff we have is obsolete ignore how badly other countries want what we have. You know who doesn't think drones can replace cruise missiles? Ukraine. You know who doesn't think carriers and next gen fighters are obsolete? China.

In other words, it means "secure our interests with your own money without getting anything in return” The logical Q is why? Yes, Europe is now an object, but the question is for how long, the transatlantic relationship has always been complex and the US just undermined its most important pillar.

Seeing the current political scene in Europe, I understand why Washington thinks the way it does. But it's a double-edged sword - Washington's demands are outrageous. Americans often push the narrative that they are generously contributing to Europe, but that's not true. 1/2

An educational wargame focused on the decision-making process for students of one course at Anton Neuwirth College. I let the Baltonia get smashed by the Northern Federation. Was fun but gotta say it's also a bit challenging to work with untrained people -they’ve unrealistic expectations.

It turns out that the missile was launched from an SS-18 silo that was reconstructed for Dneper SLV launches so that means that it is highly likely that the missile was indeed SS-X-30 (SS-18s aren’t tested since 2014).

Unless they prepared silo for SS-X-30 test my best bet ‘d be the SS-19 (Dombarovskiy houses them),the SS-18s haven't been tested for quite some time, and I've been told that there is a big problem with the SS-19’s WSR, the missiles are getting old, and there is a need to address the Avangard carrier

Me: Okay, no politics at my place during thanksgiving Cat: Mao

This is a part of the direct messaging, NATO is *preparing for the possibility* and signals it in advance and intentionally creates a commitment trap (Russia is aware of it). It is necessary, have been long arguing that we need to do something of that nature (essentially almost risk-free but signal)

"Europe does not want war with a nuclear-armed Russia and so has to figure out how to respond in a way that deters Moscow but does not cross any Kremlin red lines." Europe needs to change its attitude. We need to be willing to run greater risks. Moscow will only be deterred if it fears escalation.

Friends, do not argue about politics today. But if you must, argue with the in-laws about test yield thresholds and the relative merits of a "zero yield" criterion. Not college football or Congress.

Too tired to write something substantial on Chinese paper today (I will probably do tomorrow, some things are imo interesting) but I have to say that the language (“a certain country”) and some framings (“Arms Control - okay, NFU!!!!”) gave an honest lol moments.

Future USS District of Columbia (SSBN 826) Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine front section arriving in Groton, Connecticut for final assembly - November 21, 2025 SRC: FB- Naval Sea Systems Command

Happy Thanksgiving to all my American friends. May you and your country prosper

In principle I appreciate diverse perspectives in the history of (nuclear) science & society. In practice, when it's as condescending as this, I find myself appreciating the would-be subjects of British imperial anthropology who drove their interlocutors off with spears and Martini-Henry rifles.

When I stumble across something positive in my news feed about Ukraine, anything at all, it feels like a huge, rare surprise. Most of the time it’s bombings, deaths, and destruction. So here I am, sharing one of those rare good things:

Todd Harrison is by resume at least no fool, but this is a very foolish idea, perhaps explained by the fact that in Mr. Harrison's long career he has never worked nuclear matters. This idea does not survive first contact with the facts of that domain. A very rare work related thread.

Some unfinished maps i recently did showing PLARF brigades and their reach. It also includes US MDTF systems that are being deployed right now. Also included are US-Allied bases in the region and what sort of assets they have regularly. Two DF-11 brigades not included.

Ex-Slovak MiG-29AS - you can see MFI-54 MFD panel on the right and PUS-29 input panel in the middle. Tail number (formerly) 3709. Also, all indicators in the cockpit are imperial and not metric, but this cannot be seen with this resolution.

A few comments on the proposed deal No ban on LRS and limiting the AFU to a 600k professional army are relatively favourable for Ukraine.The negative form of the guarantees is a problem;it can be assumed that Russia will simply use it for rearmament and preparation for further…

💡Have you read our latest FASI paper? Read as @sophyantrobus.bsky.social examines the development of the University Air Squadrons over the past century & explores how they remain a vital link between universities & the armed forces. 👇 www.kcl.ac.uk/warstudies/a...

Convair B-58 Нustlеr🧵 Continued