My experience has been that there are plenty of ministers, advisers and MPs who are not expecting the level of 2026 fall that now seems all but certain. Jonathan Hinder says net 170k is only considered low because of 2021-24 but well below 2016 levels too, and 2026 will be lowest this century

It is *incredibly* shabby that the Green Party cited "family and personal reasons" for their Makerfield candidate dropping out, given it was actually in relation to sharing antisemitic posts. Had a right-wing party done the same, they'd be getting called out loudly here for it. And rightly so.

Immigration salience by party (top 3 issue) Reform: 83% (1st priority) Conservatives 33% (2nd priority) Labour 17% (5th priority) Green 16% (=6th priority) Ipsos, 8th-12th May 2026 www.ipsos.com/sites/defaul...

Can't read because of paywall, but interesting fact in the abstract, that commuting is still at 60% of pre pandemic levels for large cities, but back to pandemic levels for small cities. [in the US].

big surprise that Ed Miliband comes in so low

Clowns. Fiscal credibility matters. We might have more if MPs knew the difference between percentage points and basis points.

There's also the q of who is best placed to do the seasonal adjustment. It's its own modelling niche. Necessary and useful, but fallible and uncertain.

I can remember a conversation with a mate who worked in comms in early 2010. One of the papers (the Guardian?) had just launched a politics live blog. His reaction, and mine, was basically “what they are going to write updates about politics all day and every day? That’s mad”. A more innocent time.

Health secretary Wes Streeting has just resigned from government, writing in his resignation letter that he has lost confidence in the PM - "where we need vision, we have vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift". We're live updating our chart here at @instituteforgovernment.org.uk

Current vibe

Mitsotakis has been more muted in his criticism, but hinted at a political agenda by complaining of "selective leaks" in the case. The farm funds scandal that has convulsed Athens centers on many Greeks improperly receiving farm subsidies for land they did not own, or for farm work they did not do.

Kevin Warsh is leaning on the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean Inflation measure (b/c it’s going down) at a time when the Dallas Fed itself is warning that it maybe misleading because it is calibrated to an era of low inflation that we are no longer in www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

What is the impact of the economic crisis on the UK government? I answer this from 27 mins into the Planet Normal podcast (maybe not many listeners on this platform but hey) podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/p...

This is excellent from @niesrorg.bsky.social On how central banks should respond to inflation shock niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-sho...

if you're a labour member and you dont like zac polanski then you should turn that anger at the people in your party making him relevant. and if you conclude that nothing you can do will make labour listen to you, maybe you shouldnt be a labour member (said with no anger).

The White House is considering temporarily waiving a century-old shipping law to allow more ships to deliver at U.S. ports as global shipping disruptions continue due to the Iran invasion.

The UK’s decision to use the proceeds of its upcoming green gilt sale on nuclear energy is a dealbreaker for one bond fund.

Note German military assets in Jordan

Purely defensive? Trying to figure this one out

Breaking news: In calls to Kurdish minority leaders in Iran and Iraq, President Trump offered “extensive U.S. aircover” and other backing for anti-regime Iranian Kurds to take over portions of western Iran, according to multiple people.

And if any of these right wing commentators thinks it is somehow untoward or strange that Starmer is discussing a question of war with his cabinet, much less discussing it with his chancellor & foreign secretary, they really need to pick up a history book. end

Vv interesting development Ukraine not only important for European security. But US security too www.ft.com/content/d077...

I'll have more to say on Reform's proposals to scrap ILR at some point but for now I'll just note this - anyone telling you this is a popular idea doesn't know the polling. Overwhelming majority of public back giving people who work and pay taxes most or all rights after 5 years or less

Azerbaijan just closed airspace "in the south of the country" per Bloomberg macro squawk. Losing that link would have a massive impact on Europe-Asia (incl the Indian subcontinent and ANZ) air travel.

Reform UK and the Greens are hoovering up financially insecure voters. My piece this week looks at the return of Britain's class politics (with a twist) www.economist.com/britain/2026...

China’s economic hurdles increase: Having lost access to Venezuelan oil, Beijing is now seeing a second source of cost-effective energy,Iran,falter. This as the 2025 strategy of propping up growth through global export expansion to offset dwindling US shipments looks increasingly difficult to repeat

You can have no idea where this sentence is going as.ft.com/r/4860d9c4-7...

A consistent recurring theme of Farage byelection losses over a decade - Oldham 2015 with Ukip, Peterborough 2019 with Brexit Party, Gorton & Denton 2026 - is to talk loudly about electoral challenges about minority voters. But never to actually put the case to authorities. Media should spot pattern

On the back of @stevepeers.bsky.social excellent thread, a graphic of the border arrangements under the Gibraltar Agt PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic145 @ukandeu.bsky.social @davidheniguk.bsky.social

Morgan McSweeney sits in his house in Lanarkshire, reading Keir Starmer's letter to Labour MPs. A single tear rolls down his cheek. All his teaching paid off. Keir had it in him all along. When you love someone you have to set them free.

“Focus intensely on getting stuff done, taking the initiative, and achieving outcomes... Remove barriers, don’t create them…Be clear on objectives, what success looks like, and relentless in scrutinising performance.” Antonia Romeo's first memo to mandarins www.economist.com/britain/2026...

Labour's swing toward racism is perhaps the biggest unforced error in British political history; burnt their base to ashes and won them not a single vote on the right.

The mistake is to think that pro-Brexit voting means that people are specifically interested in "doing more Brexit", rather than wanting to be seen and understood and taken seriously and even loved by the politicians who represent them, who they rightly feel now actually despise/are scared of them.

The Green victory in Denton is the result which will have the biggest effect on Labour, far more so than a Reform win. The blithe assumption progressives have nowhere else to go has been proved catastrophically wrong. Can’t help thinking of this quote from a Labour minister, a year ago…

ANDY BURNHAM: 'Gorton and Denton by-election is pivotal - don't let Reform poison in' www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...

Great interview with Fed Miran from @izakaminska.bsky.social for The Peg He’s not just a perma dove

On the face of it, this sacking is at least as significant as the sacking of Tom Scholar as head of the Treasury by Truss/Kwarteng, but it seems to making fewer ripples. www.gov.uk/government/n...

Understand that Wormald, UK's most senior civil servant, told perm secs he was standing down at 10am y'day - and left the building the same day. Mood among senior civil servants said to be "sulphurous" over way they believe he been treated.

Views that immigration is good (a third), neutral (a third) or bad (a third).for culture & the economy now divide parry voters much more dramatically Labour/LD/Green: +40 Good > Bad Reform/Cons: -45 Bad > Good

You may not like it, but strip out the hyperbole and abuse and it's quite hard to argue with this Cummings asssessment of the public mood

Is there no job not at risk from AI?

Alistair Darling and the official Treasury were always aware that investment banks had an inside track to Number 10. But the brazen nature of that inside track is rather breath-taking.

I see some people (<side eyes>) are talking about space based AI server farms. Please stop this. The entire ISS solar array provides enough power to fire up less than two H200 equipped racks. And don't get me started on getting rid of the heat and how hard it is to rad-harden chips in space.

BREAKING: The Metropolitan Police: "Following this (Epstein) release and subsequent media reporting, the Met has received a number of reports relating to alleged misconduct in a public office. The reports will all be reviewed to determine if they meet the criminal threshold for investigation."

Oh.

You have to admire Peter Mandelson's capacity to deliver surprises. thecritic.co.uk/pete...

While Reform's candidate Matthew Goodwin is much better known in academia, media & think-tanks than to the publicl, he is unusually high profile for a by-election candidate. I wonder which if any party by-election candidates (say this century) were better known without having previously been an MP?