Getting TikTokY for @cityam.bsky.social youtube.com/shorts/40ZVW...

It’s a tough budget for Starmer as well as Reeves. My latest for @cityam.bsky.social www.cityam.com/keir-starmer...

"...and in the "French story of the year" category..." 77 year-old cyclist who fell 40m into a ravine survived in the cold and the rain for three days by drinking "several bottles" of the wine he was bringing home from the market. france3-regions.franceinfo.fr/occitanie/ga...

The politics is catching up with the economics blondemoney.co.uk/insights/uk-...

It might or might not ultimately make a difference in electoral terms, but Zack Polanski really is very good at this sort of social media stuff.

Come help me and @svaneksmith.bsky.social make everybody’s business bloomberg.avature.net/careers/Publ...

A little data for the data hungry--the Indeed job postings index dropped 2 points b/2 the Sept employment week & the end of last week suggesting an ongoing loss in momentum in labor demand. Texas & Florida saw the largest drops after being outperformers in the slowdown in recent months

Establishing a supply chain to produce rare earths outside of China isn't expensive. If only governments stepped up

Il ne faut pas mentir aux gens. Ce qui les attend dans le projet de loi de financement de la sécurité sociale va faire extrêmement mal. Ça va être terrible sur le plan social et environnemental. Et les premières victimes seront encore les plus précaires. #CensureLecornu

Is Macron going to be Superman or Clark Kent? The building is burning as I discuss with Equitile Investments www.equitileconversations.com/2459100/epis...

The new trade agreements are going to be country-company as much as country-country. This NHS-global pharma deal may well turn out to be the most significant trade agreement the UK has signed since Brexit. www.politico.eu/article/brit...

. @roberthutton.co.uk keeping the art of sketch-writing alive...

Why are France’s borrowing costs below the UK’s? Good article from @cityam.bsky.social here www.cityam.com/how-are-bank...

They have yet to consult. It seems probable that there will be further changes/clarifications: that some new rules (eg maybe some of the extended wait conditions) will apply to those already here, but that "earn your right to stay" (or leave) is not the policy, despite it being the chosen soundbite

My piece for @niesrorg.bsky.social on Why Bond Markets are Now In Charge niesr.ac.uk/publications...

Just left the book launch for this excellent and timely new book by Bloomberg’s Joe Mayes. Have a go and see if you can be Chancellor!!

‼️🇪🇺🇺🇦 All eyes are on Trump's second state visit to the UK, yet a far more important development is unfolding in Brussels, where senior EU officials are closing in on a plan to use the roughly €200 billion in frozen Russian assets in Euroclear to support Ukraine

"Cutting the VAT rate on restaurant meals, for example, was not one of the most pressing priorities coming out of the Munich Security Conference." Well put, Deutsche Bank. (On the disappointment with Germany's infrastructure fund helping to finance giveaways.)

This was a great chat with Gerald and George, from why markets struggle to price in political risk to why central banks should (not?) be independent www.equitileconversations.com/2459100/epis...

Poor/inaccurate journalism - leaves out the crucial point that there is a very high threshold for censure (not 'no confidence') votes against the Commission (it's not a personal vote on the Commission President) - majority of MEPs, including 2/3rds of MEPs voting - eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/treaty/t...

Europe must sever the link between fossil-fuel electricity costs and green or nuclear power and use its collective economic weight to bargain for lower gas prices, Mario Draghi told EU leaders on Tuesday.

Eyebrows raised in the Commons as SNP's Stephen Flynn quotes Mandelson telling the FT to "fuck off" Jim Shannon's face says it all

⚡️Why #BondMarkets are now in charge⚡️ This 'Box analysis' by @blondemoney.bsky.social published in our latest UK economic outlook is well worth a read 📈 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ @resmedia.bsky.social niesr.ac.uk/publications...

A simple factor model of real yields explains 83% of the variation in the G7 up until 2024. That means that real yields are a global phenomenon The UK factor loading (ie the extent to which it follow the global trend historically) is close to 99% A break from global trend is therefore significant

Well worth revisiting Zack Polanski’s comments on net zero from May

The reason the pre-1994 Labour governments tended not to hold onto power is a tendency to confuse 'important core stakeholders' with 'core voters'. And the remake is going the same way.

one of the most baffling things about all this is that I really can't understand why nobody in government seems to be saying "guys the strategy isn't working"

UK services PMI: New business rebounded to its fastest pace since September 2024, driven by stronger domestic and international demand. However, employment levels in the sector continued to decline, extending the current run of workforce reductions to eleven consecutive months

Labour never built up proper political capital in the first place. They're election campaign was pretty much entirely 'kick the Tories Out'. But failing to lay the groundwork for 'we'll fix the country but this won't be easy or free' meant that people weren't ready for the tougher decisions.

Just about the most challenging environment possible for monetary policymakers: ‘In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation’. www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

US President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top ally.

Shameless hopping on this to promote my column from last week: the cost of living is the number one issue. Inflation really matters. It is a reliable government killer. Yet hardly anyone in Westminster talks about it:

Where was I last night?

#WeekendReading:🔖⚡️Why #BondMarkets are now in charge⚡️ This Box analysis by @blondemoney.bsky.social published in our latest UK economic outlook is well worth a read 📈 👇👇

Congratulations! 👏 "Not since 2011, when a tsunami rammed into Japan and triggered a nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, have first-half insured losses stemming from natural catastrophes been greater." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Obvs I meant on penalties 🤣

Sir Paul Tucker has the answer on how to avoid Fed Chair reappointment drama in his 2021 FT oped: one eight year term. on.ft.com/3DOuHQp

Bailey: “Success in financial stability is when nothing happens" One of those things you could see either way www.ft.com/content/2cf9...

This note by the Labour Growth Group is good on the politics of growth and stagnation imo. But I worry it just isn't engaging seriously with the question of why economic growth slowed down. Here are their "five giants" holding back the UK economy... www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

President Trump confirmed a possible visit to China and did not rule out a meeting with Putin [Q]:The Kremlin yesterday said that if you are going to Beijing in September,they wouldn't rule out a meeting between you&president Putin.Is such a meeting possible and how soon do you plan to visit China?

Rice prices in Japan have a lesson for us all!!! Not just the economics - the political impact has now left the govt without a majority in both houses

On welfare cuts, Labour's Debbie Abrahams MP at the Liaison Committee tells the PM to his face: "This was poor legislation, designed to save money...by cutting support to disabled people. "It was so far removed from Labour values of fairness, social justice, and decency...It made me feel ashamed."

'Big tax hikes so that there is actually a serious prospect that UK will have started reducing its debt by 2029 + £18bn for local government + £3.5bn for two child as your shield against any other spending demands' - that's what I think gets the government into 2028-9 in the best shape.

It's safe to say that some of the Labour committee chairs are being deeply sceptical of the prime minister at the Liaison Committee this afternoon...

This is a centre-left control message that is distinct from Reform's populism (on taking refugees + on cooperation with neighbours over withdrawal from all the treaties and deals) and which seeks to compete with Reform on what will actually work + as well as on the principles of a balancer approach

He urgently needs a comms person. Anyone.

My latest for @cityam.bsky.social www.cityam.com/markets-are-...

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