WARNING - contains stealth advertising! Available at all good bookshops, etc. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

UCU NEC election results were published a few weeks ago. Some people have asked what this means for the factional make-up of the Higher Education Committee (HEC), so I've put together this short blog breaking down the results. open.substack.com/pub/dyfrigjo...

New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform

For those interested in devolution in the UK and Welsh politics, this is an interesting analysis in @admincourtblog.bsky.social on the Divisional Court's judgement in the Greyhound Ban case vs Welsh Ministers #devolution #greyhoundracingban #Senedd

Plaid open 14 point lead over Reform UK in our January 2026 Senedd voting intention Plaid Cymru: 37% (+7 from 4-10 Sep 2025) Reform UK: 23% (-6) Green: 13% (+7) Conservative: 10% (-1) Labour: 10% (-4) Lib Dem: 5% (-1) Other: 2% (-2) yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Our latest pod is in the feeds and on YouTube. In the first of our explainer pods, @lauramcallister30.bsky.social is joined by @edgarethpoole.bsky.social of @walesgovernance.bsky.social as we grapple with the national finances, how we have the system we do and how it could be better. #Senedd26

Senedd (Welsh Parliament) Voting Intention: PLC: 30% (+3) RFM: 29% (=) LAB: 12% (-6) CON: 12% (+1) GRN: 9% (+2) LDM: 7% (=) Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 16 Dec - 4 Jan. Changes w/ 5-16 Jun 2025.

‘They misjudged Caerphilly’: how the Reform juggernaut backfired in Welsh byelection

Caerffili - featuring our very own @jaclarner.bsky.social! Blwyddyn newydd dda! www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

“Caerphilly isn’t some post-industrial wasteland passively absorbing whatever political winds blow from across the border – it has its own political traditions” - Dr @jaclarner.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

As if by the magic of Disney, those live-action bean counters at @walesgovernance.bsky.social have produced their analysis of yesterday's UK Govt budget and its implications for Wales #budget2025 #devolution #senedd

🚨 NEW: 'FROZEN 2': 🧊 Here's the Wales Fiscal Analysis team's first breakdown on what the 2025 Autumn Budget means for Wales 🚨NEWYDD: Beth mae Cyllideb y Hydref 2025 yn ei olygu i Gymru? Dyma ddadansoddiad cyntaf o'r newidiadau sydd ar y ffordd blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

NEWYDD - Adroddiad gan @robdjones.bsky.social yn dadansoddi'r data diweddaraf ar garchardai a charchariad yng Nghymru 👇 NEW - Report from Dr Robert Jones analyses the latest data on prisons and imprisonment in Wales 👇 #Wales #Cymru #Senedd26 www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-n...

New blog Cracks in the Stonehenge of Welsh Politics: Caerphilly and Labour’s Future Read @nyedavies.bsky.social on why the result in Caerphilly should act as a wake-up call to Welsh Labour, despite many in the party having warned against reading too much into the defeat Read more: edin.ac/4949g0m

NEWYDD - @jaclarner.bsky.social a minnau ar Etholiad 2024 yng Nghymru NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...

Interesting read from @walesgovernance.bsky.social’s @lauramcallister30.bsky.social on the Caerphilly by-election, the intergovernmental & intra-party fault lines and pressures within Labour, and the road to next Spring’s Senedd election #senedd #devolution

Coverage in @financialtimes.com of the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, featuring analysis from the Enron of Welsh political statistics, and friend of the gnomes of Zurich, @walesgovernance.bsky.social’s @jaclarner.bsky.social #senedd #devolution

Those bean counters/abacus fetishists at @walesgovernance.bsky.social have done it again - a super speedy assessment of yesterday’s initial/provisional/potential/theoretical/that would be an economical matter/outline draft Welsh Govt budget #senedd #devolution

NEWYDD: Dadansoddi Cyllideb Ddrafft Amlinellol Llywodraeth Cymru 2026-27 gan tîm ymchwil Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru👇 NEW: Analysing the 2026-27 Welsh Government Outline Draft Budget by the Wales Fiscal Analysis team 👇 #Wales #Cymru #Senedd26 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

Our new BARN Cymru poll run with @itvcymruwales.bsky.social and @yougov.co.uk has landed 📈 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

A write up of today's poll featuring analysis from @walesgovernance.bsky.social's @jaclarner.bsky.social can be found here www.itv.com/news/wales/2... #senedd #devolution

A... remarkable new @walesgovernance.bsky.social ITV Wales @yougov.co.uk poll of Welsh voting intentions for the next Senedd election (changes since May) - Plaid 30% (-) - Reform 29% (+4) - Labour 14% (-4) - Cons 11% (-2) - Lib Dems 6% (-1) - Green 6% (+1) - Other 4% (+2) #Senedd #devolution

NEWYDD: Adroddiad byr gan y tîm Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru ar y Dreth Gyngor yn Nghymru a’r achos brys dros diwygio. NEW: Short report by the Wales Fiscal Analys team about rising Council Tax rates in Wales and the urgent case for reform. 👇 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

The Welsh Government’s failure to reform Council Tax has put the people of Wales at a serious disadvantage compared with those in England and Scotland, according to new analysis released today ✍️ Martin Shipton

NEWYDDION MAWR (i mi os neb arall!) Ar ôl i bob copi o'r gwreiddiol gael eu gwerthu mae @gwasgprifcymru.bsky.social wedi ailgyhoeddi fy llyfr am Blaid Cymru ar gyfer canmlwyddiant (swyddogol!) y blaid a hynny mewn clawr newydd ysblennydd. Ar gael ar faes @eisteddfod.cymru etc. AMDANI BOBL!

On the first Monday of every month, residents of a small village in Flanders hold a ceremony of remembrance for Welsh soldiers who died in WWI Tonight is the 200th ceremony. Their quiet dedication to ensuring our fallen are never forgotten is remarkable nation.cymru/feature/the-...

Os yn byw yng Nghymru neu hefo'r diddordeb lleol yn y wlad yna mae'n RHAID DARLLEN hwn >>> ESSENTIAL READING for anyone in Wales or with the slightest interest in our country >>>

Faster than a speeding rail replacement bus, the resident bean counters at @walesgovernance.bsky.social have provided their, at times quite frank, analysis on the spending review and Wales #devolution #senedd #spendingreview

🚨 NEWYDD: Dadansoddiad llawn o beth fydd Adolygiad Gwariant ddoe yn ei olygu i Gymru. 💷 🚨 NEW: Full analysis of what yesterday's Spending Review will mean for Wales. 💷 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

I'm so shocked and very sad that Claire O'Shea has died. I really hoped she'd have had more time after her diagnosis. At every political event or in any pub she was always the first to bound over with lovely friendly chat. She played a big role in Wales and would've had a huge future too. Gutted.

Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats. 🧵 on some of what it can do below: jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...

🚨 NEWYDD 🚨: Ymateb Dadansoddiad Cyllid Cymru i Ddatganiad Gwanwyn y Canghellor - beth fydd ei effaith yng Nghymru? 💷 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 🚨 OUT NOW 🚨: Wales Fiscal Analysis's reaction to the Chancellor's Spring Statement - what will be its impact in Wales? 💷 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 >> blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

Ymchwil gan Rob Jones yn cael sylw (haeddianol) yma>>> Research by @walesgovernance.bsky.social colleague Rob Jones featuring here>>> www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Wales has been screwed over by its own Labour MPs. The 27 Welsh Labour MPs voted to deny Wales millions of £ in the coming years. When I approached them they gave very weak excuses for their actions. Stay with me here because it's a bit fiddly but really matters. [Thread]

Let's break down the numbers (thanks to @edgarethpoole.bsky.social from @walesgovernance.bsky.social for helping with the maths). Scotland DOES get less money in the block grant from Westminster because they have the crown estate. It gets £10m less. You can see the figures here:

🚨Yn Cymru Fyw, mae @jaclarner.bsky.social yn ymchwilio i sut mae siarad Cymraeg yn dylanwadu ar dy safbwyntiau gwleidyddol fel trethi a gwariant, Brexit, annibyniaeth a’r frenhiniaeth 📖 www.bbc.co.uk/cymrufyw/ert...

🚨Over at CymruFyw, @jaclarner.bsky.social investigates how speaking Welsh influences your political views, such as your left-right position on tax & spending, Brexit, independence and the monarchy 📖 www.bbc.co.uk/cymrufyw/ert...

Today’s Nation article on the very Belgian outcome of a pro-Flemish Independence party leading the new Belgian government, with commentary by @edgarethpoole.bsky.social

Peak example of utter absurdity of university management speak. Using language of ‘future generations’, ‘co-creation’ and ‘academic synergies’ in a ‘slide deck’ announcing 400 academic job losses at our institution 👌

Delighted to be (a small) part of the big @ukandeu.bsky.social big Brexit Files report. media.ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/u... My 1000 words (at p 123) considers how UK political leaders - and decisions taken by the U.K. Supreme Court - have weakened devolution since the Brexit referendum. A wee 🧵 1/n

****NEW JOB!**** Research Assistant (Gr5) working with the Wales Fiscal Analysis team👇

Great people to work with. Smell a bit.

****SWYDD NEWYDD!**** Cynorthwyydd Ymchwil (Gr5) yn gweithio hefo tîm Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru 👇

BLWYDDYN NEWYDD, CYFLE NEWYDD? DEWCH I WEITHIO HEFO NI! NEW YEAR, NEW OPPORTUNITY? COME WORK WITH US!

V sad news about the late Baroness Randerson - culture minister (& acting Deputy FM for a year) during the Welsh LabLib coalition, the first Welsh Liberal to serve as a UK govt minister since the WW2 coalition and one of a select few who’ve served in ministerial office in Cardiff Bay & Whitehall

NEW: @walesgovernance.bsky.social researcher vacancy in the Wales Fiscal Analysis team, working with me and Guto Ifan 💴 🧮 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Full details here >> krb-sjobs.brassring.com/TGnewUI/Sear...

🚨NEWYDD HEDDIW: Dadansoddiad newydd gan Guto Ifan ar Gyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26 🧮 🚨NEW TODAY: Wales Fiscal Analysis's Guto Ifan delves into the detail - what does the Welsh Government Draft Budget mean for Welsh public services? 🧮 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

A huge shift from Guto in his overnight analysis of yesterday's Welsh draft budget 👏🧮📊