Accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social: After EU Referendum Remain voters became less British🇬🇧 Same gap emerged between Yes and No voters after 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 IndyRef but then disappeared; Brexit's hasn't, because ongoing implementation keeps reinforcing the threat, meaning gap has continued to grow. Full link 👇

Ironic. If Greens decided not to stand in Valleys seats for Senedd election then their chances of playing part in govt would have increased. They're unlikely to win 12% in any seat there but 5-8% vote they'll get cld have gone to Plaid - almost guaranteeing Plaid-led govt.🤔

Tactical voting likely to play a big role in driving vote choice (yes, you can tactically vote in this system) Majority want to stop a Reform government and see Plaid as best placed to stop them, but progressive fragmentation remains Reform's route to being largest party (though not government)

Welsh polling remains very noisy Reform has dropped off in other polling but steady here 29% would be Plaid's worst Senedd VI from YG since Nov 24 (sceptical of this given other trends both in Wales and UK) Lab bounce driven by MiC polling, but some small hope for them

The latest YouGov/ITV Wales/Cardiff Uni is a real puzzler given that, alongside Senedd VIs, we also have this - and I have no idea how to reconcile them! A three pipe problem?!

New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform

Hmmm …. The Green Party printing their Cardiff leaflets for Senedd Cymru election 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 in Southend-on-sea, Essex, England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 … 🧐 Why are they not supporting local businesses in Cymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 to print these leaflets? 🧐

Welsh icon Michael Sheen has declared his support for Plaid Cymru ahead of May's Senedd election, saying the country is undergoing a ‘huge transformation’

Proving Misconduct in Public Office is not easy, as it’s a matter of ‘AND’ not ‘OR’. All four elements👇🏻must be proven together to prove that the offence has been committed. All or nothing… Though this does not preclude other issues from surfacing in the process…🧐👀

‘Welsh Gov stats are not telling the full story’ ‘It is layer upon layer of systems which aim to provide everything but clarity.’ ‘manufacture superficial wins based upon selectively highlighting columns on an Excel spreadsheet’ @willhaycardiff.bsky.social latest newsletter

‘The absurdity of GP funding in Wales’ by Dr Jim Pink and Dr Matthew Jones bjgplife.com/the-absurdit...

‘GP practices in wealthiest areas of Wales receive more funding than deprived areas.’ ‘There is an urgent need to restore fairness in the funding for GP practices in Wales, finds new research by Cardiff University.’ Dr Jonny Currie & Cardiff University www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/28...

‘Devolution is supposed to allow Wales to do things creatively, to find Welsh specific solutions to Welsh specific problems. GPs are the frontline in Wales but they have been tethered to a funding formula which was designed for England for decades.’ @willhaycardiff.bsky.social DrJonny Currie says:

The absurdity of GP funding in Wales bjgplife.com/the-absurdit...

I have made some predictions for what we can expect in Welsh politics in 2026. I would love to know what you predictions are... willhaywardwales.substack.com/p/the-big-we...

Reform UK's director for Wales has been removed from Cwmbran Community Council for failing to attend meetings. David Thomas is also goes by the names "DJ Dowster" and "Dr Squeegees" (I am not joking). Find out more about Dr Squeegees here: willhaywardwales.substack.com/p/special-re...

This is a clip from inside the Welsh Parliament. So much to say about this. For one thing, Mike Hedges is having an absolute mare here. Jenny Rathbone's facial reactions when he starts praising the USA are incredible. 😮 Andrew RT Davies being the spectre at the feast stuck behind a pillar. 👻

Labour's plans for the 2026 Senedd election have been leaked to my news letter. Some of it makes sense. Some is bizarre. Some is frustrating. Much is enraging. willhaywardwales.substack.com/p/exclusive-...

Bwriadau pleidleisio Senedd / Senedd Voting Intention (YouGov - nid MRP/ not MRP method) / (28/11 - 10/12) PC: 33% REF: 30% LLAF/LAB: 10% CEID/CON: 10% GWYRDD/GRN: 9% DEM RHYDD/LD: 6% ERAILL/OTH: 2% N=1,891 Ein dadansoddiad ni / Our analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

New 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 data paints picture of consolidation within two blocs: a Welsh-identifying/progressive bloc (with Plaid as largest party) and a British-identifying/conservative bloc (with Reform as largest). Adds to evidence that 2026 is shaping up to be 2-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK 🧵

For those interested, raw data download is here along with some basic cross tabs: github.com/jaclarner/Ca...

‘What makes the (Welsh Lab Gov) refusal to hold a Welsh inquiry all the worse is that one of the findings of the UK inquiry was that many of the mistakes made in Wales were well after the first lockdown - when they were overwhelmingly in charge of the response’ @willhaycardiff.bsky.social newsletter

Nathan Gill's social media bio... They claim to love the country they would sell down the river for a stuffed brown envelope. He was the head of Reform in Wales. How do you think Reform would react if any other party leader had been found to have committed such crimes?

Can you imagine how Reform UK would react if a Welsh leader of any other party had been sentenced for 10 years for taking bribes? Nathan Gill once said he "would never apologise for being patriotic". Tbf he never said to which country...

Bribery is a "malignancy" at the heart of British public life, says judge. The law responds with "stern punishment"

🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇

‘Multilingualism protects against accelerated aging in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of 27 European countries’ @erictopol.bsky.social @plaidcymru.bsky.social @mabonapgwynfor.bsky.social @rhunapiorwerth.bsky.social @cefincampbell.bsky.social

This,This, Hwn!👇🏻 ‘In Wales, a country where our politicians can rarely go more than an hour without mentioning the Future Generations Act, Does a nation where 45% of those aged under 4 live in poverty really give a crap about future generations?’ @willhaycardiff.bsky.social newsletter 🔥👏

This is shockingly uninformed about how polling works

Sarah Rees, @plaidcymru.bsky.social said: “When even seasoned trade union leaders are saying keeping out Reform means voting for Plaid Cymru, it's clear the tide is turning. "If voters in Wales want to protect our hard won rights, Plaid Cymru is the party that stands up for them and for Wales.”🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

‘Referring to the October 23 Senedd by-election in Caerphilly, Kevin Courtney of TUC Cymru backed campaign group Stand Up To Racism told the conference: “To stop Reform in Caerphilly that means voting Plaid Cymru’” @plaidcymru.bsky.social nation.cymru/news/union-m...

@zackpolanski.bsky.social @ashleydaltonmp.bsky.social @eddavey.libdems.org.uk @libdemdaisy.bsky.social @zarahsultana.bsky.social @jeremycorbyn.bsky.social

Two unpopular governments at both ends of the M4 🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

The Westminster implications are staggering too. On these numbers, Labour would likely be reduced to just 3 Welsh seats, Plaid would win around 6, and Reform could take most of the remaining 23 seats out of Wales's 32 constituencies 🧵 End

Reform's success creates its own problems for government formation. By cannibalising Conservative support, they may find themselves without natural coalition partners, while their vote could be inefficiently distributed across constituencies 🧵

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

Any political party that says they can fix the Welsh NHS without tackling its labyrinth of an organisational structure is, in my opinion, not serious about tacking the problem.

This means that even when we are asking basic questions about what the current situation is within healthcare, we can’t be sure if we are getting the right answer.

The Wales Centre for Public Policy made a graphic showing how this works:

The Welsh NHS structure is immensely convoluted. This makes driving system wide change challenging. Let me explain just how complex the NHS in a country of 3m is... [Thread]

Patients died since May 2021 waiting for NHS treatment🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 @AneurinBevanUHB 14,180 @BetsiCadwaladr 5,934 @CV_UHB 2,234 @CwmTafMorgannwg 1,920 @HywelDdaHB 6,353 @PTHBhealth 1,182* @SwanseabayNHS 6,571 Now the eagle eyed will notice something strange here’ (see newsltr) @willhaycardiff.bsky.social

A quote from @willhaycardiff.bsky.social’s latest newsletter 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿: 🔴🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 ‘between 2016 and 2022, over 15,000 people had died while on a waiting list 🔴🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 since May 2021 Senedd election 38,374 patients died while waiting for NHS treatment This is the breakdown by 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 health board … 1/2

Lots of talk of Cymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 and England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 WAITING LISTS over the last 10 or so yrs … but what about effects on the 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿&🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 ANNUAL NUMBER OF REGISTERED DEATHS BY PLACE 2015-2024(prov)? DEATHS (All)📈🧐 at HOME 📈🚨🧐‼️ at HOSPITAL ~ at CARE HOMES ~ at HOSPICES ~ at OTHER ESTABLISHMENTS ~ ELSEWHERE 📈🧐 Source :ONS

A Welsh language campaign group has hit out at the 'disappointing' 0.2% increase in the number of children attending Welsh medium schools, at odds with the Welsh Government's target for one million Welsh speakers by 2050

Bad news. The longes Welsh NHS waits have risen for a 2nd month. The FM had said she wanted the longest waits down to 8k by March. This led to a rapid drop but since lists have started to rise again. If this is the record they are taking into 2026 Reform/Plaid will be licking their chops

And finally finally, please share far and wide! www.trumpactiontracker.info This thread adapted from my substack post here: christinapagel.substack.com/p/introducin... 14/14

Types of help needed in the screenshot - if you think these might apply to you, please do get in touch! [email protected] 11/14