👉Our findings demonstrate how historical variation in inherited coercive capacity and informational frictions can shape the subnational logic of authoritarian control.

💥 Our results indicate that after the sudden increase in dissent, municipalities with a stronger militia presence experienced more repression events and less land redistribution than areas with weaker or no militia presence.

(3) newly digitized archival records documenting individual instances of repression over time from archivo.archivosdelarepresion.org

(1) a large-scale land reform that redistributed over half of all agricultural land between 1910 and 1992; (2) the localized presence of regime-aligned rural militias with revolutionary origins and

💎We then test these predictions using novel data from twentieth-century Mexico under PRI rule. Our empirical strategy exploits a sharp increase in overall dissent in the mid-1960s and three sources of subnational variation:

🪖The model predicts that when dissent rises, rulers are more likely to rely on repression rather on redistribution in areas with strong inherited coercive capacity.

🧩 We develop a model in which an autocrat’s localized response to dissent depends on incomplete information about the geography of people’s discontent and the government’s coercive capacity, a feature that authoritarian governments often inherit from the past.

🗺️ In contrast, we argue that subnational differences in the inherited coercive capacity of the regime are a central—yet underexplored—determinant of whether autocrats respond to local dissent with repression or redistribution, thereby preventing its escalation at the very early stages of uprisings.

👉While this trade-off is well documented, existing accounts often treat this strategic choice as uniform across space, attributing variation primarily to national-level factors, such as regime type or macroeconomic conditions.

🤔What could explain the subnational variation in authoritarian responses to local unrest? 📜 Authoritarian regimes commonly employ a mix of coercion and redistribution to maintain political control (Gandhi 2008; Albertus 2017).

📢New Working Paper Alert📢 Very excited to share the latest version of our paper with @hlarreguy.bsky.social, David Martinez, and Mariano Sánchez-T on how authoritarian regimes vary their strategies across territory to maintain political control. 🔗https://juanfeliperiano.com/papers/militias.pdf

So, happy that we finally have a draft with David Martinez, @juanfeliperiano.bsky.social and Mariano Sánchez-Talanquer. All this started informally over a dinner at the @weatherheadcenter.bsky.social almost 10 years ago! tinyurl.com/MexicoMilitias

#DemocraticBacksliding: The erosion of US democracy under Trump is steeper than any recent precedent, including Hungary, Venezuela, Turkey, R//ZZ.l'a/nd Source: Financial Times @jburnmurdoch.ft.com www.ft.com/content/b474...

So happy that this work with Antonella Bandiera and Jorge Mangonnet @apsrjournal.bsky.social is finally in press t.co/LyI7UbBIaU

After 6 years of work, I am thrilled to introduce "Polarization and Exposure to Cross-Partisan Media in an Electoral Autocracy," with Jeremy Bowles @shelleyliu.bsky.social and Ahmet Akbiyik. We hope you enjoy it! tinyurl.com/TBLLA

Combating Misinformation. What Works and What We Should Do www.ifo.de/en/econpol/p...

Always fun to work with Cesi Cruz and @drernestocast.bsky.social!

📢 Our new VoxDevLit on Political Polarisation is out now! Senior Editors Cesi Cruz (University of Michigan) & Horacio Larreguy (ITAM) review research on the causes and consequences of polarisation. Read & download here: https://voxdev.org/voxdevlit/political-polarisation

👀 Out now in @voxdev.bsky.social! VoxDev senior eds. Cesi Cruz, @hlarreguy.bsky.social and @ernestotiburcio.bsky.social share a lit review on the causes and consequences of polarization. Read & download here: voxdev.org/voxdevlit/po...

📢 Political polarisation has been rising sharply in both advanced and developing democracies. At our VoxDevLit launch event on October 27, Cesi Cruz and @hlarreguy.bsky.social will summarise research on the causes and consequences of polarisation. Register➡️ cepr-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

So nice to this in print! Always a pleasure to work with José Ramón Enríquez @asimpser.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...

🔍 #EconJob Research Assistant in Political Economy You'll work w/ M. Montenegro @hlarreguy.bsky.social, J. Merilainen & N. Garviras 💡France-based—Toulouse ideal; remote OK; part/full-time 🧠 Advanced Stata skills + knowledge of Spanish preferred Application: mateo.montenegro[at]tse-fr.eu

1/2 Buscamos RA (con base en Francia—ideal Toulouse; remoto OK; medio tiempo o tiempo completo). Stata obligatorio. Proyectos en economía política (desinformación y capacidad estatal local) con @hlarreguy.bsky.social @jmerilainen.bsky.social Natalia Garbiras Diaz Mateo Montenegro

1/2 We’re hiring a Research Assistant (France-based—Toulouse ideal; remote OK; part/full-time). Projects: experimental & quasi-experimental political economy on misinformation and local state capacity w/ @hlarreguy.bsky.social @jmerilainen.bsky.social Natalia Garbiras Diaz Mateo montenegro_z

"Political brokers use social networks to identify & target reciprocal non-copartisans for vote buying. Parties recruit brokers central in networks to sway persuadable voters." From @rduartegonzalez.bsky.social, Finan, @hlarreguy.bsky.social and Schechter: www.restud.com/brokering-vo... #Econsky

📅Let's meet on Dec 4 & 5 to ̶d̶i̶s̶g̶u̶s̶t̶ discuss about Disgust accross borders, a theme that's anything but tasteless ! 👃 As you'll see very soon, the program is still appetizing. ⬇️Interested in presenting? Subdmissions are now open!⬇️ @cmolho.bsky.social @csarabian.bsky.social @atognetti.bsky.social

Recently accepted by #QJE, “Who You Gonna Call? Gender Inequality in External Demands for Parental Involvement,” by Buzard (@kbuzard7.bsky.social), Gee (@laurakgee.bsky.social), and Stoddard (@olgastoddard.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

Inspired by this lineup? Join us at the IAST workshop. ✍️Register by 15/06: www.iast.fr/registration... 👉Organized with care by: A. Degrave, @dwingerfelix.bsky.social @haasvioleta.bsky.social @hlarreguy.bsky.social @giacomolem.bsky.social K. Michelitch, A. Ezzeldin Mohamed & @asimpser.bsky.social

I still cannot believe that we finally got "Missionary Activity, Education, and Long-run Political Development: Evidence Across Regime Types in Africa" conditionally accepted at @cpsjournal.bsky.social with @soerenhenn.bsky.social and Carlos Schmidt-Padilla

Nice to see this in LAER's Special Issue on Experimental Economics! Thanks to Hernan Bejarano for the invitation submission! www.latinaer.org/index.php/la...

🚨Finally in print: our (with Kiran Garimella) methods piece on how to do research on WhatsApp and collect WhatsApp data using donations. "Whatsapp Explorer: A data donation tool to facilitate research on WhatsApp" journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Interested in participating in the Friends of ITAM Political Economy Workshop in Mexico City on August 16? Please send us a paper to [email protected], [email protected], and [email protected]. The submission deadline is May 23, and decisions will be communicated by June 2.

Very happy to see this with @piaraffler.bsky.social in press www.annualreviews.org/content/jour... It was a great excuse to go back to interacting more often as in our good old times at @harvard.edu

"National Elections Database," including the results of 1,023 presidential and 2,962 parliamentary elections conducted worldwide since 1946! From @vinpons.bsky.social, Marx and Rollet. The companion paper: www.restud.com/electoral-tu... #EconSky #Elections

Very happy to see this in press! It was a please to work with Bruno Calderón-Hernández John Marshall and José Luis Pérez-Castellanos www.nature.com/articles/s41...

First publication, now accepted at the @reveconstudies.bsky.social after many years from the first working paper draft! @hlarreguy.bsky.social

Political scientists: please consider signing, and sharing with other political scientists, this petition, which expresses urgent concerns about threats to the balance of powers in the U.S. today. Hundreds have already signed.

Someone has spoofed my email. If you receive an email from me asking for help, please do not respond.

After years work assembling and organizing it, together with Bruno Calderón, John Marshall and José Luis Perez Castellanos, we present you the "Electoral precinct-level database for Mexican municipal elections" osf.io/6jteh/ dropbox.com/scl/fi/3kqnb...

This year has been with an incredible publication yield: 3 APSR acceptances, 1 conditional acceptance at ReStud, and one NHB acceptance. I cannot be more grateful to my collaborators and research and teaching assistants. Without them, this would have been impossible given my 200-hour teaching load.

Argentina, one year into its libertarian presidency Milei is starting to post some good numbers. Fiscal cut of ~5% of GDP. Inflation continues to fall. Structural reforms and deregulations Recession ending. Latest: poverty falls after spike earlier this year.

This is certainy what we need to do in Mexico City. Altitude aside (usually it does not affect me), I am finding incredible easier to exercise this days in Toulouse (even under 5 C) than recently in Mexico City.

New paper with Romain Ferrali "Combating the Harassment of Online Activists in Authoritarian Settings" www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/gbrh1...

We're hiring profs (open field) at the econ dept of King's Business School - we also have lecturer, senior lecturer, and reader positions (those are on econjobmarket) #econsky

"Family Ties, Social Control, and Authoritarian Distribution to Elites" with Antonella Bandiera and Jorge Mangonnet was just accepted at the @apsrjournal.bsky.social! www.dropbox.com/s/7x8twiz4wb...

📣We are hiring! Please share! 👉2-4 Associate Professors in Political Science 🇳🇴 Department of Political Science, University of Oslo 📅 Deadline: February 3rd, 2025 🔗 www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...

Call for Papers – The Economic Journal special issue: Polarization in Field Experiments res.org.uk/call-for-pap...

In the middle of working for my slides for tomorrow!

The World Bank and Lingnan College of Zhongshan University, Guangzhou are partnering for the fifth annual Infra4Dev Conference, to be held on the 15th and 16th May 2025 in Guangzhou, China. Submit your paper online: www.worldbank.org/en/events/20...