Seeing several non-US online commentators justify (if not praise) threats of invasion, abductions, and now plain murders, just because they like Trump and dislike the left of their countries, I feel bad for when in grad school I thought Svolik was overstating the role of polarization.

Imagine your last act in life being to try to pick someone up off the icy ground and the consequence is you get repeatedly pistol whipped in the face and then shot to death. Donald Trump and his goons robbed a human being of their life during a moment of compassion. It is hard to even imagine.

In just over eight months, Berlin will hold its 20th state election since 1946. While its well known East West divide in voting behaviour is often attributed to the city’s former split into capitalist and socialist halves, these differences existed even before the city’s division. A thread. 🧵

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1/10 🧵 The U.S. just captured a sitting head of state in a military operation—and Trump says the U.S. will "run" Venezuela “for now.” Whatever you think of Maduro, this is the most consequential unilateral move in the hemisphere since Panama (1989).

Secretaries Rubio and Hegseth looked every Senator in the eye a few weeks ago and said this wasn’t about regime change. I didn’t trust them then and we see now that they blatantly lied to Congress.

Look, libs, he is a man of peace, not like that Hillary Clinton warmongerer, ok?

Very important and underrated point. In HPE people often use historical surveys without discussing the original sampling and measurement process. Historical researchers had their own research questions and constraints. A common problem I found on my own digitization - linguistic surveys.

The IT newspaper I subscribe to (which normally has a good coverage of international news) gave a very disappointing "analysis" of the Chilean election. The 3 key words: Trump, Pinochet, Allende (the latter evoked as a contrast with the present). No serious discussions of Chilean domestic politics

I promise if you’re not Jewish and don’t know any Jews quite well you really do not understand the level of justified paranoia baked into most public Jewish gatherings: Security at swimming lessons at the JCC, off duty police outside a bar mitzvah as a favour, etc. It shocked me.

Combining a high-quality probability sample with data from larger online panels statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/14/c...

Three days ago. No more words.

you hate chomsky for posing with bannon, i hate chomsky for denying genocides going back decades we are not the same

New Nobel Prize for racism and electoral interference just created!

Trump administration - FIFA A marriage of the two most corrupt orgs of the globe

New paper! @william-dinneen.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social Yiqing Xu and I use GPT to code 91k articles from 174 polisci journals (2003–2023)and track research designs, transparency practices, and citations. How has the credibility revolution reshaped the discipline? doi.org/10.31235/osf... 🧵

📢 📢 Call for Papers IV Yale–UB Historical Political Economy Workshop Organized by @Didacqueralt.bsky.social & @Cescamat.bsky.social 🎤 Keynote: Lisa Blaydes (Stanford) 📍 University of Barcelona 🗓 June 29–30, 2026 Submit your papers by Jan 21, 2026: shorturl.at/oZTNy #pleaseRT

“He combined more than 30 plays for the theatre with a steady stream of works for television and radio, and with screenplays including an adaptation of John le Carré’s The Russia House, Terry Gilliam’s Brazil and a joint credit for the Oscar-winning screenplay of Shakespeare in Love.”

new paper by Sean Westwood: With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research

I am excited to travel to Amsterdam this week for a great workshop on Political Identities in Europe @acesuva.bsky.social. I will present my paper (in progress) on language reform and identity changes in Navarre (Spain). aces.uva.nl/content/even...

I jump into the moderation debate. I agree with @adambonica.bsky.social and @gelliottmorris.com on the methodology, but I want to draw attention to a bigger issue. The collapse of candidate effects generally. leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...

📢 Two weeks left to apply for a (2-year) research fellowship @iast.fr A fantastic opportunity to work full-time on your own research, in an interdisciplinary environment, and in a lovely city in the South of France. Deadline: November 15, 2025 How to apply: www.iast.fr/research-fel...

The question now is whether what happened in Madagascar will be repeated elsewhere on the continent. Young people in Africa have been increasingly vocal, calling for major reforms amid growing unrest. The continent has the world's youngest population. https://cnn.it/4nevWhP

The U.S. military has destroyed five boats it has alleged were ferrying drugs into the U.S., killing 27 people. No authority has publicly released the names of any of the dead. One family is believed to be the first to publicly say they believe a relative is among those who were killed.

Another important paper of a new generation of PEDev studies rethinking concepts of "precolonial" politics that the first generation of studies oversimplified www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Scholars & pundits have focussed a lot on the electoral demise of center left, but in doing so we paid to little attention to the electoral problems of the center right. Case-in-points here not only British conservatives or center right in France, but increasingly also the center right in Spain.

Fukuyama gets laughed at all the time because of "The End of History" (or at least because of the title choice), but honestly, "The Origins of Political Order" and "Political Order and Political Decay" are quite good.

It's 2025 and research institutes are still gating working papers/preprints written by academics. I don't know their business model, so they may have a reason, but for academics, posting *preprints* under a paywall without providing an ungated version is very unethical, sorry

Riley's book is an important one.

Nice post by @kylefbutts.bsky.social. I have been puzzled too by papers using randomization inference in obs settings with no discussion of why/when the assignment should be seen as random. www.kylebutts.com/blog/2025-09...

Gabriel Zucman be like

Remember when the left was actively trying to get people fired for right wing tweets? A bunch of people back then said, "hey maybe ceding authority to companies to regulate private speech isn't exactly the leftist position you think it is." They all got called dirty centrists. And here we are.

Great opportunity to work with my fantastic colleague Mateo and a team of top political economy scholars. Consider forwarding to your students.

Radical-right parties are often linked to the “left-behind”. But supporting them when stigma is strong is costly. So who is willing to pay that cost early on, before it’s normalized? In my new WP, I argue that breaking political norms is socially stratified. 🧵👇

All this thread. Personally, my prior probability that a flashy headline finding is true, especially in the nutrition area, is close to 0.

Fyi statistical methods to detect ballot stuffing were often developed on Russian data because it was so easy to spot and validate

Great paper that clarifies a long-standing doubt of mine on the connection between empirical measures of persuasion and its behavioral definition. Identifying the Effect of Persuasion | Journal of Political Economy: Vol 131, No 8 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....

Are there any good reviews of how behavioral games have been used in political science? They are very popular in behavioral economics and psychology but seem underused in political science (for now).

Please share this thread. It is important that political scientists, in Europe and across the world, understand why EPSS exists and why we are encouraging people to attend our inaugural conference, in Belfast next June.

A very interesting article on the logic of elite propaganda and group mobilization, an area with rich empirical evidence but many theoretical open questions. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

New preprint with @cmparreira.bsky.social and Lindsay Walsh posted to @socarxiv.bsky.social: "From Protest to Parliament: Lebanon’s October Revolution and the Rise of Movement Parties." Link: osf.io/preprints/so...

One of our “green new scam” research grants that USDOT terminated focused on making transit infrastructure more resilient to more frequent and severe weather events. But “climate change adaptation” was too woke, obviously, and doing this research is clearly unnecessary

We always assume that politicians optimize their chances of staying in office. But it’s also true that politicians can be bad at politics. This is the underlying theme of my take on the Kenyan opposition’s chances in 2027: kenopalo.substack.com/p/how-kenyas...

"As a former police officer, I can tell you that my first reaction to unidentified men in masks converging on me or someone nearby would be to take cover and prepare to fight."

This should not even be controversial. The "it's all unpaid labor" crowd often misses that continued critical engagement with frontier work is the basis of our job.