Eliminar a un capo sin desmantelar las condiciones de mercado y las debilidades institucionales que sostienen al crimen organizado no reduce la violencia. La reacomoda. open.substack.com/pub/garciapo...

When cartel leaders are targeted, command structures break down and rivals jockey for influence. @garciaponce.bsky.social summarizes the research on kingpin strategies and what might be different about El Mencho. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/el-m...

I wrote about the recent killing of El Mencho, what the evidence says about decapitating the leadership of major criminal organizations, and whether things could actually be different this time. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/el-m...

Read in companion with Thomas’ book on the radical environmental movement! www.zeitzoff.com/no-option-bu...

"Midterms" by Adam Przeworski open.substack.com/pub/adamprze...

While researching my book, I was struck by the role racist and xenophobic ideas played in U.S. environmental history. Prominent figures: -Pushed "Great Replacement" style demographic fears -Helped build the modern anti-immigration movement -Argued against famine aid on ecological grounds

Thanks to @au-spa.bsky.social for the feature discussing my book, *No Option But Sabotage*, and repression, radical environmentalism, and today’s climate politics. www.american.edu/spa/news/no-...

📢1 WEEK LEFT to apply! EGAP #LatAm Learning Days Workshop + PhD Lab @Institute of Sociology, Catholic University of Chile. Deadline: Feb 28, 2026 buff.ly/9xgFGs2 @jakebowers.bsky.social @dktrdr.bsky.social @slopezcariboni.bsky.social @garciaponce.bsky.social @lmaldona.bsky.social

Cualquier gobierno en Caracas tendrá que enfrentar un aparato de seguridad fragmentado, un territorio disputado por el crimen organizado y un sector petrolero vulnerable a la captura y la extorsión. open.substack.com/pub/garciapo...

Any new government in Venezuela will have to address the country’s broken military, fragmented politics, and an oil sector vulnerable to corruption, writes @garciaponce.bsky.social.

My book—No Option But Sabotage: The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis—comes out today! It's the result of 3+ years of research and 150+ interviews with 100+ activists and experts.

What Will It Take to Rebuild the Government in Post-Maduro Venezuela? I wrote about three interrelated governance challenges: 1) a fragmented security apparatus, 2) the strong presence organized criminal groups, and 3) the vulnerability of the oil sector. 👇 www.lawfaremedia.org/article/what...

A lot of smart people have been in denial about AI for understandable reasons: – the people pitching it can be distasteful – there’s been a ton of snake-oil hype – it’s easier not to reckon with a major disruption

Look at Bangkok for the last four elections compared to this A city that once was a royalist Democrat stronghold has become a blaring orange progressive bastion I think that there's a really interesting story in there about Thai Millennials and Gen Z, economic development, and progressivism

*No Option But Sabotage* is out in 10 days. Pre-order links are pinned—thank you for all the support!

Did NAFTA unintentionally reshape Mexico’s drug violence? A new JDE paper (Hidalgo, Hornung & Selaya) shows NAFTA may have raised the value of trafficking corridors, reorganizing where drug-related violence occurred. open.substack.com/pub/garciapo...

Really enjoyed the conversation last Friday at Politics and Prose with @jjgreenjr.bsky.social —talking repression, protest tactics, and climate activism. We discussed my new book, No Option But Sabotage, that comes out Feb 16 with @academic.oup.com ⬇️

Este verano impartiremos un taller sobre inferencia causal y ensayos controlados aleatorizados (RCTs) en Santiago de Chile! Quienes postulen deberán estar vinculados a una universidad, entidad gubernamental u organización de la sociedad civil en América Latina.

Looking forward to this book talk on Friday —really important work by @zeitzoff.bsky.social on the growing threat of climate change and the ways activists are responding to it.

ICE detained hundreds of thousands of people last year, shuttling them between jails and detention centers around the country, limiting access to legal support.

As scholars like @gabrielzucman.bsky.social, @adambonica.bsky.social, and @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social show, extreme wealth concentration profoundly distorts U.S. politics: data4democracy.substack.com/p/money-does... www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... paulkrugman.substack.com/p/talking-wi...

Highlights from today's #AmericasMigrationBrief include: ➡️ 🇺🇸 immigration agents murder another citizen ➡️ 🇹🇹 migrant regularization program begins ➡️ 🇨🇱 president-elect looks to emulate 🇩🇴 enforcement strategies ➡️ 🇬🇹🇧🇿 border crossing cards a success www.migrationbrief.com/p/americas-m...

When you explain it plainly, it’s hard not to see where we are as a country.

I’m excited to share that I’ll be doing a book talk and launch with @jjgreenjr.bsky.social for my new book: *No Option But Sabotage* at Politics and Prose (The Wharf) next Friday, 1/30. politics-prose.com/thomas-zeitz...

In interviews, nurses and doctors in the Twin Cities said federal agents have broken hospital protocol, refused to provide warrants and gotten into shouting matches with staff. Some compared the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown to the coronavirus pandemic. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/19/u...

🚨WHOA. The El Paso Medical Examiner says it will rule the death of a 55-year-old Cuban man at ICE's "Camp East Montana" tent camp as a homicide. He was allegedly choked to death by a guard during a "struggle" after he refused to enter a housing unit without his medications.

What is happening in America right now. The arbitrary power of a tyrant deployed against his political enemies.

The dynamic I'd guess we're likely to see going forward: Trump gets less popular → stops trying to persuade More heavy-handed repression at home + strikes abroad More protests → more crackdowns → even less popularity Key is elite defection: can opposition peel off business and other elites?

If there's one empirical insight I'd want everyone to understand about American politics, it's this: America's problems are solved problems. Just not here. What would change if the US simply matched the average of 31 peer democracies? Not Denmark or Norway. Just the middle of the pack. 🧵

¿Qué sabemos sobre la retórica violenta que alimentan varios líderes políticos alrededor del mundo? Vale la pena echarle un vistazo al excelente libro de Thomas Zeitzoff, “Nasty Politics”, que ofrece un análisis riguroso sobre la lógica del lenguaje agresivo en la política contemporánea.

The Norwegian Nobel Prize committee has been forced to make a statement, declaring that the prize cannot be transferred. It's hard even to comprehend how stupid this has become

ICE is much less about “immigration actions” and more about the creation of a paramilitary militia that is loyal to regime with a key goal of crashing public forms of dissent. www.ms.now/news/shootin...

Heavily armed, masked teams of men roaming our schools, hospitals, courtrooms, and churches—men who understand that they enjoy legal immunity for any acts of violence—do not advance the interests of any "side". They will ultimately harm all Americans, on the Right and Left.

Iran is experiencing a nationwide internet blackout, according to an online monitoring group, amid escalating protests over a worsening economic crisis

New paper out in @psrm.bsky.social "Red lines versus negotiables" w/ agetmansky.bsky.social, Grushetsky, @nadiyakostyuk.bsky.social @tsinmazdemir.bsky.social @austinwright.bsky.social With pressure on Ukraine to negotiate, understanding what Ukrainians themselves will accept matters enormously.

Five years ago, the president of the U.S. launched a self-coup to stay in power. He wasn’t punished, ran again 4 years later, and won. Our current politics and the state of U.S. democracy are downstream of this.

New piece in @goodauth.bsky.social on what Trump's actions in Venezuela might mean. goodauthority.org/news/what-ha...

I’ve expanded this thread into a Substack post: "After Maduro: What the U.S. Intervention in Venezuela Means for Latin America." open.substack.com/pub/garciapo...

1/10 🧵 The U.S. just captured a sitting head of state in a military operation—and Trump says the U.S. will "run" Venezuela “for now.” Whatever you think of Maduro, this is the most consequential unilateral move in the hemisphere since Panama (1989).

A few observations following the U.S. strike on Venezuela and capture of Maduro. 1) Hopefully, this improves the lives of ordinary Venezuelans, but I'm very skeptical. There's no serious plan for dealing with the Venezuelan economy or security forces. www.cnn.com/venezuela-ma...

The full spiked 60 Minutes CECOT package, clean & subtitled. 1/5

The International Monetary Fund asked me to review the literature on migration economics to draw lessons for low-income countries. In a new @iza.org paper, I argue that policy for the 21st century must discard four outdated ideas. www.iza.org/publications... 🧵 thread—>

As Greg Bovino returns to Chicago, this story looks at children detained by ICE, including one 5-year-old swept up in Operation Midway Blitz earlier this year. “We didn’t eat anything for days. They didn’t even give us water to drink,” the mother said. www.themarshallproject.org/2025/12/17/c...

Why did that happen, what does it tell us, and what can we do next? That’s what my forthcoming book, The Wage Standard, is about: how rules, norms, and power in the labor market shape who shares in growth. Coming out March 31. Pre-order here: www.thewagestandard.com

The current Trump pressure campaign against Ukraine to accept a pro-Russia peace deal is actually worse than it looks. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/w...

Every professor I know is struggling with AI in a different way. I found a few things that really helped this semester. 1) I banned cellphones and laptops in class— made a huge difference in attention and quality of discussions.

In Mexico, the share of income captured by the 1% has declined noticeably in recent years. This shift toward lower income concentration—alongside poverty reduction—helps explain not only the popularity of AMLO and Sheinbaum, but also some of the ongoing political battles and sources of polarization.

A few observations based on this week's election results 1) Trump is unpopular and the elections were a rebuke to him and his unpopular policies.

The two competing dynamics that will define Trump's second term: 1) He wields more unchecked power than his first term—and arguably than any other president in history. 2) He is deeply unpopular, and getting more so.

Today we are sharing our conversation with @garciaponce.bsky.social ‏and co-author Isabel Laterzo about their paper, “Who is to Blame? Youth Crime and Attribution of Responsibility in Urban Mexico”. Check it out: buff.ly/6n4yjKY