Back in NYC for Climate Week. Cheers to this glorious city.

something to note is that the reason this is possible is the perpetual limbo our immigration system keeps people in. the solution to this is not just limiting the power of the presidency, it is making it easier for people to become fully citizens, with all the protections that entails

For those who aren't familiar, H1B visas aren't just used in the tech industry. They are also widely used by universities, hospitals, engineering firms, and other industries that rely on extensive training. Fees were previously under $5k -- still high, but doable, and many employers would pay them.

The “common and enduring culture” is as vibes-y and anti-material as the “Japanese social norms are what let them have trains and clean streets” we sometimes hear as an explanation of Japan’s livability.

The funny thing about “voters chose deflation” is that it makes the same infamous assumption from the 1970s that deflation is what must accompany stagnation.

Seeing commentary in India amounting to “look what your striving got you, NRIs.” Trumpist xenophobia here reinforcing anti-emigrant prejudices abroad.

My favorite 2019 GE lore is that John McDonnell’s economic program ran into the cluster that was Corbyn’s leadership.

A fantastic way to kickoff Yimbytown. Hope to see folks there!

[BILL ALERT] SB 79, which broadly legalizes more homes near high quality transit stops, has passed the Senate floor! The bill is now on the Governor’s desk. Learn more: cayimby.org/legislation/...

SB 79 PASSES!

Last hurrah for me and the tax credits till IRA 2.0! Leased my first EV!

(1) Wasn't this basically the IRA and IIJA? (2) Isn't the main reason we observe these huge omnibus bills because Congress fails to legislate normally?

there will not be a liberal unitary executive. it is possible, perhaps, to have a liberal imperial congress and we should strive for it.

The lawyers v engineers debate is silly. Everyone knows economists should rule.

20% of India's trade is with the US and its nominal GDP is now bigger than Britain's and by PPP exceeds Japan's. It is among the fastest growing world economies. If you can't figure out that universities should be teaching Hindi, Urdu and Sanskrit you deserve to decline into irrelevance

This from @aarmlovi.bsky.social is the best path forward with AVs. It's also @johnericson.me thought iirc. Labor, congestion, vehicle utilization, and safety are all constraints on mobility (and hence growth). Let's use automation to tackle all and enhance our transit systems.

If you had told me in 2012 that Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign manager would be posting like this 13 years later i would not have believed you

Public financing of Tx offers significant savings for ratepayers! In this research note, @buddyyakov.bsky.social & I argue replacing equity in IOU capital stacks won’t harm utility credit ratings. Rather, using cheaper debt will preserve IOU rate-basing capacity. publicenterprise.org/report/resea...

Industrial policy is for making things part 100.

Imo it’s tricky because the GND likely would’ve been vulnerable to the exact same criticism vis a vis energy price shocks. We need specific electricity, market, planning, institutional, public finance, and industrial policies for that. It’s not something even BBB could be expected to solve.

The political reason Trump is doing the fascist assault on the Fed & trying to fire Lisa Cook is because he’s a fascist. The economic reason is that he’s locked himself in a policy trilemma where the only way to not blow up the economy was to not touch the stove in the first place.

So many American institutions have responded disastrously to the Trump Administration by surrendering in advance and playing footsie with his ideological crusades. Fantastic to see Lisa Cook buck the trend and stand her ground. The Federal Reserve should back her to the hilt.

Only losers bet their future on fossil fuels. 🔌💡

EVs and fuel economy (plus the rail infrastructure) are likely make a big difference to India’s fuel use trajectory, even if adoption rates are slower than countries with more Chinese imports. (India does have some JVs with Chinese firms iirc).

Great snippet from @lovering.bsky.social. It is wrong to suggest the economics of nuclear power are intrinsically bad. Policy makes the economics.

Nice bit of optimism. Synergistic with the bigger market for new and used EVs. Given the rise in hybrids / PHEVs, there's decent potential to constrain nationwide petrol consumption AND provoke a bigger substitution out of ICE vehicles in an oil shock. www.wsj.com/business/aut...

Any upcoming books folks wanna flag? One's I'm waiting for: - Tooze's Climate opus - Obama's Part 2 autobio - Capitalism by Sven Beckert - Land Trap by Mike Bird - Breakneck (Audible) by Dan Wang - Spy & State by Jeffrey Rogg - Second Front by Marc Milner

I never find the time to write this up, but I have an intuition that compression of the income distribution and homogenous mass consumption are stabilizing for society for exactly this reason.

An idea that needs a lot more validation relative to its popularity is China "replacing" real estate investment with higher ROI investment. I buy that they tried. We all see the latter's progress in many sectors. I don't buy that "replacement" worked or is even conceptually appropriate framing.

AI systems are becoming more efficient through research innovations and software and hardware efficiency. Over a recent 12 month period, the energy and total carbon footprint of the median Gemini Apps text prompt dropped by 33x and 44x, respectively, all while delivering higher quality responses.

In November 2024, I made a list of things I thought the fascism theory of Trumpism predicted could happen.

Build a party organization and you have a vehicle to steer reconstruction.

It’s pretty simple: - AI is driving electricity demand up - The Trump Administration is restricting new electricity supply from being built - When demand goes up and supply goes down, you pay more for electricity.

They’re gonna create an energy crisis.

FDR built the new deal in the span of a decade

"It will take decades to rebuild" is just a prediction. It has no reality or meaning until it happens. Our work must make it false.

A decade in power, with at least 6 years in trifecta, which is historically not that much, would fundamentally revolutionize the US and the world

Pretty, pretty good.

I remember folks like Rob Meyer were criticized for analogizing Trump’s policies to degrowth. Even as some left accounts defended unions for backing the tariffs or argued “at least Trump has a policy to tackle American consumption.” Liberalism’s critics never fail to land in the horseshoe.

It's darkly funny to see Twitter's right wing posters start using anti-GDP talking points that've been commonplace among far left groups for years. Liberalism's critics never fail to land in the horseshoe.

PSA that GDP critics should not reason from accounting identities.

Talked with @buddyyakov.bsky.social about this over lunch at APPA a few years ago and they wrote up some incisive commentary with @cthelala.bsky.social i was glad to see publicenterprise.org/pricing-prob...

I continue to think the labor supply story is *far* more important and has far greater impacts on wages/inflation than is currently internalized by the market. There was no way we were going to create jobs at a solid pace in Q2 with this many people being forced out of work.

Democracy Dies in Unilateral Disarmament There is an option if you don't like this. Like everything else about preserving our democracy, it's entirely up to the far right authoritarian party to stop acting like a far right authoritarian party, & Democrats can't fix that. bsky.app/profile/mcop...

The economy is weakening for many reasons: tariff-induced price + uncertainty + demand shocks; high rates; public spending cuts, collapse in migration, a slackening labor market. AI impacts will be build on these forces, but they don't drive them. This was true of the China shock too.

Yup! Imo this is perfectly complementary to specialization. Never hurts to enter a new line of work with fresh perspectives from another.

Sotomayor should have resigned under Biden.

Her assertion that incumbents couldn’t be term-limited even by a constitutional amendment is patently absurd. It’s the supreme law of the land! Of course it could say you stop being a justice in 2029 or whatever, and that’s how the amendment should be drafted, to phase it in for the incumbents.

This is a completely insane argument from Sotomayor, and is directly hostile to a constitutional form of government. Either we are all bound and protected by that document or it’s meaningless.

it never fails to gall me that Americans who believe that foreign nationals crossing the border illegally to work jobs US citizens will not take is the greatest violation of national sovereignty in human history also want Ukraine to just cede 25% of its landmass to an actual invading army