Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners, write @kirland.bsky.social and Vasil Navumau @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social https://bit.ly/42jwgnI

Se i negoziati tra 🇺🇸 e 🇷🇺 dovessero fallire, il ruolo di Lukashenko svanirebbe da un giorno all'altro, le sue concessioni andrebbero sprecate e la sua reputazione con Putin verrebbe danneggiata. 🖊️ @kirland.bsky.social & Vasil Navumau

Belarussisch-russiche Militärdrills: Zapad 2025 ist nicht nur eine Machtdemonstration, sondern auch Lukaschenkos Versuch, eine Rolle in der europäischen Sicherheitsordnung zu spielen, schreiben @kirland.bsky.social und @vasil-navumau.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/zapa...

Should US–Russia negotiations collapse, Lukashenko’s role would evaporate overnight, his concessions wasted and his standing with Putin damaged, write @kirland.bsky.social and Vasil Navumau https://bit.ly/42jwgnI

As the full-scale invasion enters its final stage (even radical pro-war Russian groups are talking about an end), the Russian leadership is seeking ways to influence Western perceptions of the war and their calculations regarding the desired outcome. 1/4

The Huffman family thought Russia’s “shared values” visa would be their escape from U.S. “indoctrination.” But their plan hasn’t gone the way they hoped. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

Would you like to know why it has been so difficult for Putin's Russia to build a powerful military? @waterstones.bsky.social has launched a 25% discount on upcoming titles, including my book on Russian military development! 1/4 #WPreorder

#Russia will likely try to keep the #Iranian regime weak and out of Western reach, hoping to exploit any deal for its own gains, @kadriliik.bsky.social‬ and @kirland.bsky.social‬ argue in their last commentary. Read it here ⬇️

My MA & PhD uni is in the news again: “The repercussions of the American turmoil are being felt in places like Vienna. By mid-May, C.E.U. had recorded a 40 percent increase in applications from American students compared with last year.” www.nytimes.com/2025/06/08/u...

Interesting debate on what defence spending adds to your economy on.ft.com/4jCLJFs How big is the economic dividend from extra defence spending?

Back from a long research trip to Russia. Insightful professional meetings, and more importantly, human contact and on-the-ground observations. First time back since autumn ‘22, surprisingly little has changed on the streets. My analysis re current RU and negotiations coming soon

What domestic constraints does Russia face in negotiating with Ukraine? Risa Brooks, Margarita Zavadskaya, and I explore this in our new piece on the military’s role in Russian politics. It draws on a unique survey experiment we designed for an academic study.

Deploying a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine might seem like a step toward stability. However, without a comprehensive peace agreement and clear mandates, such a move could entangle Europe in a protracted conflict, writes @kirland.bsky.social @ecfrwidereurope.bsky.social

„Russland hat kein Vertrauen darin, dass ausländische Truppen zur Friedenssicherung eingesetzt werden. Ihre Stationierung wird als Gefahr gedeutet und ich würde auch erwarten, dass sie mit Raketen und Drohnen angegriffen werden“, erläuterte @kirland.bsky.social.

See our catalogue for more upcoming non-fiction➡️ tinyurl.com/k2bpzrct Featuring titles from @dankaszeta.bsky.social @kirland.bsky.social @kalathmika.bsky.social @fieryparticle.bsky.social @irgarner.bsky.social @paulclammer.bsky.social @shuja-jamal.bsky.social @marwecki.bsky.social and many more!

Trump’s USAID freeze has put 90+ Russian pro-democracy groups and independent media at risk of closure. Europe cannot fully replace the lost funding, but it must step up with targeted support for the most influential organisations. @kirland.bsky.social 📝

Donald Trump has frozen USAID. This is bad news for civil society organisations in the Russian democratic community, but Europe has the chance to step up its soft power influence in the eastern neighbourhood, writes @kirland.bsky.social 👇

Yeah folks, it doesn’t look good for us at ridl.io

Read this earlier this year and highly recommend that you do, too. Recounts the most quickly-forgotten-about episode of ethnic cleansing in recent memory.

USIP hosted an event with Belarusian, Russian, and Ukrainian youth as part of the Eastern European Youth Dialogue. This news made my Monday and I hope that such initiatives will continue.

Putin gets a grand welcome by Tokayev et. al. as he arrives in Astana for an official visit.

So glad people in Lebanon can finally return to their villages. A side note from another region: According to the sociologist Volodymyr Paniotto, about a third of Ukrainians - more than 10 Million people - are internally displaced

🚨#ICC Prosecutor announces application for an arrest warrant for Senior General and Acting President of #Myanmar Min Aung Hlaing, Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services 🚨 Suspected responsibility for #CrimesAgainstHumanity for the deportation & persecution of #Rohingya from Aug - Dec 2017

On the topic of last week's internet cable outages in the Baltic Sea, an interesting point by @katjabego.bsky.social for @meduza.io.

hard to exaggerate how nuts the engagement is on Bluesky compared to 𝕏. a vastly smaller user base (at least officially), but just look at these stats for one of the biggest newspapers on Earth. Musk has absolutely trashed the platform. folks, you are not locked in on 𝕏. not even a little.

A very good piece on Russian state ideology that does in fact reflect existing reality ridl.io/etatism-base...

So far the only people who look like they actually cared about RU missiles are RU-based strategic studies people and the pro-war community. Western media, experts and politicians swiftly discussed the technical aspects (range, type, etc) and moved on. Poor outcome for Moscow.

Russian president increased the payment for warfighters with serious injuries to 4 million RUB. Recently, the government set payments at 3 mln RUB (now 4) for severe injuries, 1 mln for moderate, and 100,000 for minor.

I recently acted as an expert witness at the First-tier Tribunal (Immigration and Asylum Chamber) in London in an appeal against the Home Office's refusal to grant international protection to a Russian national. 1/5

I know tens of thousands of words about a Russian soldier is something many people will refuse to read, but this is one of the best things I’ve ever read about Russia. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

🎧 In this podcast, @kadriliik.bsky.social, Pavel Podvig and @kirland.bsky.social analyse who is really in charge of the Russian military and its nuclear weapons. The answer is far from simple. Listen to the podcast: buff.ly/48udryu

To understand what’s keeping the West from grabbing frozen Russian sovereign assets and what it will take for the confiscation to go ahead, The Naked Pravda spoke to journalist Alexander Kolyandr and welcomed back political risk advisor Maximilian Hess. meduza.io/en/episodes/...

🎧New podcast mini-series! Our new podcast, “Under the Overcoat” will explore the deeper trends beneath the surface ofdaily politics. For a closer look at history, our host @kadriliik.bsky.social is joined by Ksenia Luchenko, @kirland.bsky.social & Mikhail Komin. ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

Just returned from DC, where I chatted with Russia, natsec and civmil community. I am now researching the future of RU military reform, accounting for past policy/political challenges and OSINT sources. How can qual research legitimately integrate probabilities in the analysis? LFR sources!

A 🧵 on trust and the Israeli war in Gaza. Last night Netanyahu tweeted this, following his first Q&A sessio since the war started. It denies being warned about the Hamas attack by intel agencies and *blames them* for saying Hamas was deterred and seeking settlement. 1/ CivMilSky polisky

CALL FOR PAPERS: I'm directing a workshop on Hybrid & Authoritarian Regimes at ECPR's Joint Sessions in March 2024! Deadline for abstracts is 14 November. Abstracts on civil-military relations & conflict studies in autocracies also welcome! Polisky Dictatorsky Comparativesky ecpr.eu/Events/Event...

Second American journalist detained in Russia, charged with failing to register as a foreign agent after going to Russia for family reasons. First – our friend and colleague Evan Gershkovich who is still behind bars www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/w... Alsu Kurmasheva holds dual US-Russian citizenship.

A man who was wrongfully imprisoned for more than 16 years before being released in 2020 was fatally shot by a sheriff’s deputy in Georgia during a traffic stop on Monday, the authorities said. An official said he was pulled over for speeding.

Israel calls for evacuation of 1mn people from northern Gaza https://on.ft.com/3POmS4u

On my way to IUS AFS 2023 conference to present my draft on the future of RU military capabilities, meet DC friends and colleagues. Panel 14: Russian Civil-Military Relations and Military Performance Panel 65: Roundtable on Ukraine—How Does This End? www.iusafs.org/wp-content/u...

As the situation escalates in Israel-Palestine, misinformation is rife. It can be difficult to decipher what is really happening and what is not. Our team has gathered examples of misrepresented footage and imagery from the latest conflict, helping you tell facts from fiction

The American ambassador to NATO said U.S. military aid to Israel after the attacks by Hamas assailants would not come at Ukraine’s expense. D.C. could “stay focused on our partnership and commitment to Israel’s security” and still support Kyiv, she said.

Yes-I even recall former Secretary of Defense Esper calling himself apolitical (as a Cabinet official) It’s really important that civilians are seen (and see themselves) as political actors supporting an administration’s agenda. That’s essential for democratic civ-mil to work as intended.

Coming here feels like starting my social media life anew. Hi everyone, I’m Kirill, fellow at ECFR focusing on RU civ-mil, domestic politics, and, in the times of war, its foreign & defense nexus in foreign policy. In my other life, research consultant for the EU (pub admin & evaluation).

The very fine Russian military and otherwise expert @kirland.bsky.social has joined Bluesky.