Have you written a great macro paper? Submit to the CJE. New macro crowd in the editorial board with Joe Steinberg at the helm. #macro #econbluesky

If, as the say, "Wars are God's way of teaching Americans geography," it must be the case that "Tariffs are God's way of teaching Americans Economics."

"I thought I was voting for pro-business policies and small, targeted, and incremental tariffs, that would encourage..." How could anyone watch Trump, listen to what he says, and think anything constructive would ensue on the economic policy front?

We're in the midst of an election, so lots of not-entirely-fleshed-out promises being made. I think we have to wait to see the first budget from the incoming government.

The Toronto Life folks (Ali Amad, in this case) did a great job summarizing how things have been. torontolife.com/city/it-felt...

Our paper with Jack "Trade Wars with Trade Deficits" has made quite the rounds as of late. We put together these notes to help understand the results: drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...

Our paper with Jack "Trade Wars with Trade Deficits" has made quite the rounds as of late. We put together these notes to help understand the results: drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...

Yes, the stock market behaves efficiently. Erratic, volatile are not antonyms of efficient. Williamson is spot on, as usual.

1/So, I take "efficient market hypothesis" to be the proposition that there is some model of rational behavior consistent with asset market behavior. What's puzzling? You load the world up with a highly unusual amount of uncertainty, and then force it to respond to a quickly-evolving series...

I am happy the Globe and Mail published this piece.

Don't blame @paupujolas.bsky.social

Trump Administration has cited this paper by Pujolas & Rossbach as justifying recent Trump tariffs. It does not. Nor does it justify 2018 Trump tariffs on China: "We find that both the United States and China experienced welfare losses from their recent trade war." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Worried about Smoot-Hawley repeating? You should be *even more* worried now. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Advertencia importante de @paupujolas.bsky.social : los países pequeños siempre pierden en guerras comerciales. Razón de más para mantener filas prietas en la UE.

Ya lo dijimos en este artículo nadaesgratis.es/admin/guerra... De cara al futuro, los responsables de la formulación de políticas comerciales, deben comprender que los desequilibrios comerciales bilaterales cambian la manera de pensar en guerras comerciales... 1/3

Elbows up, Canada.

A great idea from my friend David Feeny and his wife Darrell Tomkins. Help a first-generation student by donating! dailynews.mcmaster.ca/articles/why...

www.cbc.ca/news/canada/... Because "retaliating" is a misleasing word.

One of my companies informed me they cancelled a $2m conference in Florida. Why ? They didn’t feel they could pass on the incremental cost of tariffs. So they are cutting expenses. That’s a city that lost a ton of tourism revenue. The cost of tariffs isn’t just the cost of the tariff

Let's have a second to think of all those Old Folks in Trumpland that voted for the Very Stable Genius and are now panicking when they look at their 401k. Vote for the Qualified, Dark-Skinned Female next time, ey? (If there is a next time)

"I've seen photographs..." What a clown.

Anyone indeed youtube.com/watch?v=uhiC...

Trudeau: "He talked about banking again today in a tweet, which doesn't make any sense because 16 banks are currently active in Canada holding about $113b worth of assets in this country... what he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that'll make it easier to annex us."

Guys, a trade collapse today vs the 1930s. We already know the (ugly) answer: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Young economics researchers--especially PhD students in Europe preparing for next year's job market--should apply for the Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics in Vigo, Spain, 8-10 July 2025. Submission deadline is 10 April. workshop.webs.uvigo.es/index.html

Here in Canada, for some reason, banks are regulated federally but most other financial services are regulated provincially (insurance, securities etc). Another example of #InterProvincialTradeBarriers in #Canada #EnoughIsEnough!!! #CanadianizeCanada!!! 🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦

People calling for the US govt to be run off tariff revenue alone lack ambition. Real tough guys would do it off USPS revenue.

If we’re renaming bodies of water based on petty grievances, I propose that this be renamed the Kendrick Lamar passage.

[Corrected] Pallas Data: Federal voting intentions with Mark Carney as LPC leader: 🔴LPC 39% 🔵CPC 38% 🟠NDP 9% ⚜️BQ 7% 🟣PPC 4% 🟢GPC 3% [Pallas Data, February 6, 2025, n=1,241] #canpoli

Interesting. Here in Ontario, we have an opportunity to hire first-rate academics from the U.S. Unfortunately, we're in the middle of a budget squeeze from the provincial government.

Hey Dom, here is a free idea: CANADIAN SINGLE MARKET www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

The Bluffoon

Avui, a la radio catalana! www.3cat.cat/3cat/pau-puj...

3/24 left-of-center (on average) senators.

2/whatever it has become, will not be successful. No one in their right mind north of the border wants to be a part of this. Further, I don't think Trump understands what absorbing Canada might mean. We're not going to settle for one state - we want 10, 11, or 12. And that comes with 20, 22, or...

1/What a lot of nonsense. I looked up "viable" just to make sure I've got all the subtleties. Meaning: "capable of working successfully." So, by that measure, it's the United States of America that has become non-viable. With that idiot running around wrecking things, this thing...

Some simple facts about international trade: 1. It's voluntary, so the idea that only one side is benefiting from any trade is in general ridiculous 2. Saying that tariffs *MAY* raise prices to consumers is just bad economics. In almost all realistic cases, tariffs WILL raise consumer prices.

The first order response must be the ELIMINATION OF INTERPROVINCIAL TRADE BARRIERS! www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

it's not a real economic crisis without an anakin and padme meme

Did I tell you guys we wrote this paper with Jack Rossbach? "How Should Canada React to the Looming U.S. Trade War?" Link: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

I wish I had come up with this title! www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...

The first symptoms of this second Trumpitis are starting to unfold... Oy US friends, stay safe

Well, timely piece we wrote with Jack, I guess papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Now Trump claims he will stamp a 25% tariff rate against Canadian products very soon. Since we built the tool, we use it for the Canada-U.S. trade war. Here is the paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... After all this work, I have 4 results in the next tweet, and 1 thought in the last one. 3/5

Muchas gracias, Antonia!

Guerras y Déficits en Comercio Internacional nadaesgratis.es/admin/guerra... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economía

Nueva pieza en Nada Es Gratis nadaesgratis.es/admin/guerra...

Thought: The gains from economic integration in Canada are way larger than the costs associated with a Trump war (3 or 4 times larger). CANADA: use this opportunity to create a single market, dismantle monopolies, and fully liberalize the economy! 5/5

Results: - The U.S. could win a trade war with Canada if it chose tariffs well - Canada will lose the trade war, no matter what - A 25% tariff rate is a bad idea for the U.S. - The U.S. has a lot more to win if it concentrates on going after China and leaves Canada alone. 4/5