Jerry Goff (@jerrygoff.bsky.social)

Is there a better chance that a noncitizen will be struck with lightning than attempting to vote in a national election? Yes, there is a much better chance (meaning higher probability) of being struck by lightning than a noncitizen attempting to vote (or successfully voting) in a U.S. national election. Multiple studies, audits, and official reviews from sources across the political spectrum consistently show that noncitizen voting in federal elections is extremely rare—often on the order of 0.0001% of votes cast or far lower—while lightning strikes, though also rare, occur at a notably higher rate. Lightning Strike Odds According to the National Weather Service (NWS/NOAA): The odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are about 1 in 1,222,000 (based on 2009–2018 data, including both injuries and deaths). The lifetime odds (over ~80 years) are about 1 in 15,300. More recent estimates sometimes adjust this slightly higher (e.g., 1 in 1,600,000 annually in some compilations), but the lifetime risk remains in the range of roughly 1 in 15,000–20,000. Noncitizen Voting/Attempt Rates It is already illegal for noncitizens to vote in federal elections, with severe penalties (fines, imprisonment, deportation). Extensive evidence shows actual instances or attempts are vanishingly rare: A Brennan Center study of 42 jurisdictions (covering 23.5 million votes in 2016) found only ~30 suspected cases of noncitizen voting—0.0001% of votes cast. Many jurisdictions reported zero cases. The Heritage Foundation (a conservative organization tracking fraud) has documented only dozens of noncitizen voting cases over decades (e.g., 23 from 2003–2022, 77 from 1999–2023, or ~68–99 total in some reviews), out of billions of votes cast. This equates to rates well below 0.0001%. Recent state audits (e.g., Michigan: 16 credible cases out of 5.7 million votes in 2024, or 0.00028%; other states like Georgia, Ohio, Louisiana, Utah found tiny numbers—often single digits to low hundreds—after reviewing millions of registrations/votes). Nationwide reviews and expert consensus (including from election officials, Cato Institute, Bipartisan Policy Center, and others) describe noncitizen voting as "exceedingly rare," "statistically insignificant," or effectively zero in detectable, impactful numbers. Claims of widespread attempts (e.g., millions) have been debunked or drastically revised downward upon investigation. Even taking higher-end estimates of rare cases (e.g., a few hundred proven or suspected over many election cycles), the per-election, per-noncitizen probability remains orders of magnitude lower than lightning risk. Some analyses note you're more likely to be struck by lightning (or even twice) than to encounter a confirmed case of noncitizen voting in typical large-scale reviews. In short: Lightning strikes are rare but happen hundreds of times per year across the U.S. Noncitizen attempts to vote in national elections are far rarer still—far less likely than being hit by lightning. https://x.com/i/grok/share/063c821790404efd8ef79f2f8e84dfb7