Coffee tariffs lifting price? No. US prices muted by strong USD$ + lag. Sweden’s free market = world’s highest coffee inflation. Elsewhere, state controls mask true cost. Brazil? Demand destruction when price rose 10% y/y in Feb

No it is exactly how this works. And democracy around the world doesn’t have an answer

PPI final demand services fell -0.2% m/m as service prices for trade slid -1.7% m/m. Tariffs hitting demand hard. But Stage 1–4 service inputs all rose — B2B costs are climbing. Price pressures are building further up the pipeline.

How many undocumented are in the NFP & why does it matter? www.linkedin.com/posts/michae...

An @afm-union.bsky.social and @sagaftra.org gal. An NFLPA guy. We love a union love story. Congrats Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce!

Firing central bank officials because monetary policy isn’t sufficiently easy from the perspective of the government usually makes inflation problems worse

Apropos of nothing, a reminder that German stock markets kept climbing in an almost uninterrupted fashion in the run-up to WW2. Investors are really, really bad at pricing serious institutional and political risks.

Intel takeover isn’t socialism — it’s America’s Singapore play. State takes equity in key firms. Intel stays profit-driven, but its survival + chip leadership now underwritten by Washington. Equity-backed state capitalism, not socialism, not western, think Asian

Somebody tapped ChatGPT 5 on the shoulder. 4o was more flexible

rookie move, should have offered to do what you are already doing as a major concession @swiss-un.bsky.social

Do we laugh or cry when certain Fed officials tell us the tariffs were a one time price adjustment. Sure, point to the one time. bsky.app/profile/bren...

Once again, the @atlantafed.org GDPNow was the best tracking estimate of GDP. Consistently higher than consensus and hovered around 3% for the past 7 weeks. Nice work Pat. www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...

Core GDP is slowing

One of these is not like the others

Hasn't really shown up yet, but I refuse to believe this will have no impact.

For 20+ yrs, goods (in blue) have restrained overall inflation, while services (in red) have surged well above it. The problem? The red stuff—like hospital care and housing—is essential. TVs aren’t.

Since 1998, Housing prices are up 330% Yes 125% also Yes Which housing price is being discussed matters. A Lot.

Trump is raising your taxes without anyone voting on it.

Its only 1 month but the PPI report was a disaster. Goods prices were constrained 2023-May 2025, but soared in June. PPI services prices fell a clear sign of slumping activity despite favorable USD$ tailwind. Travel to the US is down 9%.

One of the most surprising details in the latest CPI: an increasing share of price data was estimated, not observed. In June, over 1/3 of #CPI imputations came from other items or locations likely due to budget cuts and staffing shortages at BLS. We can’t fight #inflation without reliable data.

If only she were a part of congress and could do something about it like vote against it.

behind the glitter pen insults is a real threat: politicizing Fed rates to juice markets short-term at the cost of long-term inflation risk.

Supporting the Democratic nominee too high a bar in 2025?

BEA revised 1Q GDP lower to -0.5% q/q, not a big deal. But Core GDP was revised a lot lower, and income was lousy. www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...

June’s major tariff collection day just posted. Not as sharp a jump as feared, but the US is now on pace to collect ~$340B per year in tariffs. That’s 3x the 2017–2024 avg Pause? not so much

nobody is shopping for a house rn

aka "We were allowed to let someone under 50 run for office the entire time?" “The surge by @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social, I’ve never it seen before” @jcpolanco.bsky.social “It’s been an incredible campaign that understood social media and marketing like no other.”

President Trump: “You can stop wars with tariffs.” April 2, 2025 So why didn't we try to tariff Iran first? www.whitehouse.gov/videos/presi...

Here is what we just destroyed in Iran. IYKYK

Did not age well, we just bombed Iran

Fed isn't cutting rates, but they are easing up in other ways. QT has gotten less severe

New Fed SEP just dropped. 2025: GDP forecast weaker unemployment higher inflation, total and core higher rate path, unchanged 2026 same as above except one less rate cut www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...

Not like the war in Ukraine is showing the world the ability to produce batteries is critical to national defense, oh wait…

Tariff Revenue as a % of Imported Goods, Trump loves tariffs. Obama a slight uptick? Biden much better than I realized, tried to bring them down

Losing the plot

Feels like Barron applied and didn't get in

Tariffs are going up and up. Tariffs are like a tsunami crossing the ocean—markets reacted to the alert, but now it’s quiet. Impact won’t hit consumer data until August, and GDP not until 3Q release on Oct 30. Buckle up.

1AM ? c'mon

April 23 was the new tariff day. Annualized tariffs jumped from $130B to $235B in May. +80%, with ~$100B to be passed through. Supercore retail is ~$4T, so 2.5% m/m if fully passed on at retail more to maintain margins. (Big m/m, CPI just 0.2% m/m in April)

JFC - the people sending the pizzas are not just telling judges they know where they live. They are using the name of a a family member of a Judge who was murdered.

Data showing no tariff impact? Data often is mid-month or perhaps up to the 3rd week of the month. Revisions get the rest later. When did the "new" tariff collection happen? April 23rd. Have to wait until June - July when the May data is released

Seriously delinquent balances (90+ days) for student loans jumped 7.7% in Q1 based on FRBNY data. Delinquencies will likely continue to increase now that repayment terms have resumed after a 5yr pause. #econsky #studentloans #debt

Goldman: “We expect the US’s effective tariff rate to increase by about 13pp this year to its highest level since the 1930s. … higher tariffs will likely raise equipment costs and discourage investment, lowering the capital stock and GDP in the long run.”

Oh

ADAS (FSD) Best to Worst A) Cameras, Radar, LIDAR GM, Lexus, Chinese EVs, Waymo, Volvo B) Cameras & LIDAR BMW, Audi, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Nissan, Polestar C) Cameras & Radar Ford, Tesla (2021 & earlier), VW, Stellantis, Jaguar D) Camera only Tesla (2022-current)

The Pope running for US President in 2028 vs Trump or Vance would be the funniest thing ever. Every founding father would be screaming. @peark.es

China's GDP is 5.3% y/y only 3 countries in the world are growing faster, yet prices are contracting. One of those two can't be true. Bank of China just told us which number is real.

this Nigerian Prince who needs your help, is he in the room with us now?

chat is this good

Get ready to learn about some obscure EO Obama did in 2010 that is causing empty shelves in 2025