Yoshie Furuhashi
@yoshiefuruhashi.bsky.social
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Bill McBride
1 day ago
Goldman: "The underperformance likely reflects pressures on lower-income consumers—including more limited borrowing capacity and weaker income growth—as well as the slowdown in immigration. Our distributional income growth forecasts suggest a continued underperformance of low-end spending in 2026 ."
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Bill McBride
1 day ago
Goldman: "for retailers whose stores are generally located in lower-income zip codes, sentiment around the consumer turned negative on net and nominal same store sales have grown only 0.2% over the last year (vs. 2.5% for companies exposed to middle- and higher-income zip codes)." 1/2
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Conor Sen
1 day ago
If the Dem keeps it to mid single digits in TN-07 tomorrow it’d be reasonable for conventional wisdom to shift to House odds being more like 85-90%. Curious what bitcoin and similar assets would do in response:
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Zohran Kwame Mamdani
1 day ago
ICE raids are cruel, inhumane, and do nothing to serve public safety. My responsibility is to be the mayor to each and every person that calls this city their home. That includes millions of immigrants— of which I am one.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Helene Meisler
4 days ago
They have learned to BTFD. What happens when that stops working? Aw heck, it never will because, apparently we are in a permanant state of BTFD. 😄
add a skeleton here at some point
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Conor Sen
4 days ago
Seems like a pretty big limitation on a paper modeling out Gen Z homeownership rates at retirement!
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Schrödinger's Sneetch Belly
5 days ago
A reminder for those who are not aware: "remigration" is the process of deporting all non-white people from a country. It includes citizens and is, by definition, ethnic cleansing. And to be clear: this is not fake. I just screenshot it myself.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Tom Hearden
5 days ago
Remember when Black Friday was a thing?
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Bill McBride
5 days ago
November Forecast: Vehicle Sales Down Year-over-year
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/nove...
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November Forecast: Vehicle Sales Down Year-over-year
From J.D. Power: November New-Vehicle Retail Sales Decline 4.8% as Effects of EV Pull-Ahead Persist Brief excerpt: Total new-vehicle sales ...
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/november-forecast-vehicle-sales-down.html
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Helene Meisler
5 days ago
Cool new thing I have seen at COST. Waiting on checkout line a COST person comes to you, scans your card & everything in your cart. When you get to the cashier (or self checkout) you just flash your card & you're good to go.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Doug Henwood
5 days ago
It ties Biden’s low in July 2024.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Doug Henwood
5 days ago
This is at the 9th percentile of all approval ratings since Gallup started asking the question in 1941. It’s the second-lowest (after Nixon) of any pres 11 months into his second term. Trump's Approval Rating Drops to 36%, New Second-Term Low
news.gallup.com/poll/699221/...
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Trump's Approval Rating Drops to 36%, New Second-Term Low
President Donald Trump's job approval rating has slipped to a new second-term low point and is approaching his all-time low of 34%.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/699221/trump-approval-rating-drops-new-second-term-low.aspx?utm_source=twitterbutton&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=sharing
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Yoshie Furuhashi
All that "post-neoliberalism" has accomplished so far is to make tradable sectors less efficient and more expensive, while doing nothing to curb the costs of non-tradable services. 🙃
7 days ago
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Karthik Sankaran
7 days ago
Please stop blaming on trade the things (or putative things like the $140k number) that are pretty much entirely the fault of America’s terrible nontradeable sectors.
www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Conor Sen
13 days ago
By this I mean -- I doubt real-world actual humans are going to say "The labor market is getting worse and I dislike Trump more, but I'm noticing inflation is cooling off so I'll give Trump credit for that." Orange Man Bad is going to have a high correlation to all the issues.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Conor Sen
13 days ago
The approval ratings of Trump going down at the same time that his approval on both the economy and inflation are going down makes it tough to tease on what's the driving force -- not really a nitpick, just something I'm thinking about:
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Yoshie Furuhashi
George Pearkes
13 days ago
COST is a great one to watch in part because they do monthly sales reports.
add a skeleton here at some point
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Yoshie Furuhashi
George Pearkes
13 days ago
Make of this what you will but with WMT comps up mid-single-digit the odds consumer spending is slowing rapidly are negligible.
add a skeleton here at some point
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Yoshie Furuhashi
George Pearkes
13 days ago
WMT beat and raise...hard to be too worried about the consumer with this result. *WALMART 3Q ADJ EPS 62C, EST. 60C *WALMART 3Q TOTAL US COMP SALES EX-GAS +4.4%, EST. +4% *WMT SEES FY SALES EX-FX +4.8% TO +5.1%, SAW +3.75% TO +4.75% *WALMART SEES FY ADJ EPS $2.58 TO $2.63, SAW $2.52 TO $2.62
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Joe Weisenthal
14 days ago
MONETARY MALPRACTICE A great guest contrib from Neil Dutta in today's newsletter, where he calls out the Fed's reluctance to cut rates. You can read the full thing here
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
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Yoshie Furuhashi
George Pearkes
13 days ago
Here's the counter-argument to my view expressed above (which has puts and takes). I've disagreed with Dutta most of this year, and so far things have not deteriorated as much as he thought they would, but that could change.
add a skeleton here at some point
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Yoshie Furuhashi
George Pearkes
13 days ago
All together, mixed bag. Market added 10% to the pricing of a December cut on this report (now 35%, up from 25% earlier this AM), but given the strength in payrolls and the underlying details that feels like the wrong price action to me.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
George Pearkes
13 days ago
No sign of weak labor demand in wages. Line worker avg hourly earnings looks like it's stabilizing around 2% ann., which means 2-3% inflation and 1-2% productivity growth...pretty reasonable. Total line worker payroll disbursals grew 4.2% ann. in nominal terms in Q3, plenty to sustain spending.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
George Pearkes
13 days ago
Significant underperformance among college educated unemployment rates and younger worker unemployment rates.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
George Pearkes
13 days ago
On the one hand, unemployment due to job loss is trending rapidly higher. On the other, the typical duration of unemployment is declining. Part-time work for economic reasons also declining gently. And unemployment for high school grads no college is low + stable.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
George Pearkes
13 days ago
Some jobs day observations Pick your indicator: is the labor market deteriorating measurably and weaker than 2018? Unemployment rate says yes. Or is the jobs market stronger than 2016-2019 and stable? Prime-age emp-pop says yes.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Tom Hearden
13 days ago
Mister Softee amirite
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Tom Hearden
13 days ago
it really is notable how a) the Bitcoin bounce was meh ish b) it led the rollover again
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Tom Hearden
13 days ago
the quantum shit* is getting pummeled *technical term
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Tom Hearden
13 days ago
$MSTR is ten buck lower than the open
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Tom Hearden
13 days ago
sad trombone for store of value
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Tom Hearden
13 days ago
<---flipped out remaining longs and looking to put out shorts
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Dow
13 days ago
Got suspended yesterday on Twitter for “violent speech”, but I really think I’m getting woke-policed for content Twitter doesn’t like. I appealed, but haven’t heard back yet. Twitter keeps reminding me that if I remove the tweet, I can be fully reinstated immediately.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Carl Quintanilla
13 days ago
Page One in Iowa.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Bill McBride
13 days ago
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
Sales are essentially unchanged year-to-date. Will this be the lowest level of annual sales in 30 years?
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Bill McBride
13 days ago
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/nar-...
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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.2% Increase in October Month-over-month • 1.2% increase in existing-home sales – seaso...
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/nar-existing-home-sales-increased-to.html
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Heba Gowayed هبة جويد
15 days ago
Today there was an attempted ICE raid in Bensonhurst & community members showed up. Even though NYPD collaborated with ICE by trying to disburse the crowd; community members stood their ground & ICE left without kidnapping a single person per the rapid response groups I'm on. We protect us!
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Ivan the K ™☑️
14 days ago
Here's my two pesos on NVDA earnings: They can't say anything credible about what really matters to its valuation, which is what's going to happen in 2027+.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Conor Sen
14 days ago
Bad business stays bad: *TARGET 3Q COMP SALES -2.7%, EST. -2.06%
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Julia Coronado
14 days ago
Investment in tech equip & software rivals the 90s in growth rates but accounted for 2/3 of all growth in H1 vs only ~15% in the late 90s. Other things going on in the 90s--broad based boom in the labor market/GDP, globalization, peace dividend, consumer optimism, labor force growth & immigration
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Tracey Ryniec
14 days ago
Who?
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Tom Hearden
14 days ago
absolutely no one: Tom Steyer: *TOM STEYER ENTERS CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR'S RACE: POLITICO
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Conor Sen
16 days ago
Fresh 52-week low for $OWL.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Conor Sen
16 days ago
Fun, I win a cookie
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Conor Sen
16 days ago
Figure it’s upsized to $15 billion: *AMAZON SEEKS TO RAISE ABOUT $12 BILLION FROM US BOND OFFERING
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Conor Sen
16 days ago
It's Liberation Day for the homebuilder supply chain -- they're being liberated of their profits and gross margins:
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Yoshie Furuhashi
George Pearkes
16 days ago
Contrast with small caps which broke below their 50-DMA and trend channel on Thursday, but are now >2 std dev oversold and getting into similar territory on their 14d RSI. Could run lower but look much more extended than large caps.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
George Pearkes
16 days ago
S&P 500 set to close both below its 50-DMA for the first time since April and below the May-current trend channel for the first time since it was established. Momentum starting to set up pretty consistently negative and index way short of being significantly oversold by any measure.
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Joey Politano🏳️🌈
19 days ago
It only took 7 months, but my “why tariff banana?” crusade has FINALLY been vindicated: the White House has exempted bananas (and a bunch of other tropical fruits) from the tariffs today Now if they could just realize this whole trade war is stupid and counterproductive…
add a skeleton here at some point
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Yoshie Furuhashi
Karthik Sankaran
20 days ago
This is funny.
add a skeleton here at some point
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