Clive Cowdery tells @bloomberg.com how Resolution Foundation became the UK’s most influential think tank, talks about his remarkable personal journey from care homes to £millions and his “frenemy” Paul Marshall www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Runners and riders to replace Hughes at the OBR. Andy King, Ruth Curtice, Stephen Farrington, Paul Johnson, Sam Beckett, Gemma Tetlow, Rain Newton-Smith www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

New paper cited by BOE ratesetter Swati Dhingra and co-authored by BOE senior economist Philip Bunn puts the Brexit damage at twice the OBR's 4% estimate. And it's been getting worse since the TCA came into force www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

glad to see this piece from summer on Labour's "all pain, no gain" strategy still works www.economist.com/britain/2025...

Excessive levels of Budget kite-flying risk exacerbating market uncertainty @ruthcurtice.bsky.social responds to latest rumours that the Chancellor is no longer planning to increase Income Tax rates in her upcoming Budget, following rumours last week that this would be the centrepiece of the Budget

How the bond markets appear to be reading the latest budget u-turn. Labour can’t cut spending (welfare u-turn) Can’t raise major broad based taxes (income tax u-turn) Reeves and Starmer are hostage to the backbenchers. Like the drunken sailors have taken command of the ship

eeves has asked the OBR to score her plan to lower inflation by tackling regulated prices. It could knock up to £6bn off borrowing costs - fully offsetting the increase since March, Bloomberg Economics work shows, helping to fill the £30bn hole. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

BoE gov Bailey lending the government a hand. Brexit will be a drag on growth for the “foreseeable future,” he says. Reeves needs growth, Thomas-Symonds is negotiating better trade with the EU, and Bailey helpfully points out the reward on offer. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Reeves gave a series of interviews at the IMF setting out the broad shape of her budget. Key things: tax rises coming, certainly on wealth 1/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Wholesale energy costs aren't the *sole* driver of higher energy bills. For electricity, the largest source of upwards pressure comes from increasing costs of government policies and schemes funded through bills. Read 'Splitting the bill' to learn more 👉 buff.ly/4x4GNAa

The value of Fuel Duty is now at historic lows, having fallen by 23p per litre (or a third) in real terms over the past decade. It would cost £5 billion *per year* to continue the freeze by the end of the decade. Instead, smaller quarterly increases should be introduced.

IMF has urged Reeves to stick with two OBR forecasts a year. But only judge her once. It's not plausible. The Act states the OBR has to do two forecasts and assess her both times. Reeves says she wants one proper forecast. That will require legislation www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/4...

Reeves could end the threat of further tax rises by lifting her £9.9bn buffer this budget, economists say. More margin for error would lower borrowing costs and hand her another boost in what's being called a "virtuous circle." Does mean more tax in Nov tho www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The OBR is about to downgrade productivity just as the productivity figures start to pick up, from @tomreesjournalist.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Reeves risks a clash with the OBR as she considers scrapping the spring forecast in a bid for greater policy stability www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Striking data point from ONS today. Income inequality at lowest level in 40 years, with the low reached under the Tories. From ONS dataset www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

Mandelson has lost voting rights, dividends and had the value of his shareholding capped in the lobbying firm he founded and co-owns. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The £1.14bn Covid rescue scheme for start-ups, the Future Fund, has so far cost the taxpayer £400m. Of the 1,191 companies rescued, 334 are bust. Government accounts show www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Thursday’s Bank of England decision on gilt sales could add another £4bn to Reeves’ budget hole. That’s equivalent to 1p on corporation tax www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Mandelson’s advisory firm failed to buy him out of his 28pc stake, prolonging the risk of conflicts of interest with the former US ambassador, because it is loss-making and therefore prohibited from buying back shares under the 2006 Companies Act www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Mandelson was defending Epstein after his conviction as a serial sex abuser in 2008. He even offered to discuss Epstein’s plight with his contacts. @harrynwilson.bsky.social and @bloomberg.com have had exclusive access to emails www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

Businesses are warning government policies will stoke inflation for a second year running as tax, employment rights and minimum wages pile on billions of pounds more cost. The BOE and OBR say the last budget was inflationary. The risk is this one is, too www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Starmer's strategist, former IPPR director Tom Kibasi, lasted just two weeks amid allegations of an "aggressive communication style". From @pronouncedalva.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

This @economist.com piece on the Resolution Foundation insurgency in govt is great. A roll-call of RF staffers now "running the country" www.economist.com/britain/2025...

"What began as a think-tank aimed at helping the poor has, somehow, ended up running the country." www.economist.com/britain/2025...

The OBR’s anticipated productivity downgrade will be the defining feature of the budget. Reeves will fight back with growth counter measures. But the scale of tax rises will likely make it anti-growth 1/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

He's one of Britain's richest men. So why does Asif Aziz's property company keep leasing London gift shops to overseas students based in abandoned offices or flytipped car parks — before vanishing without paying millions of pounds in taxes? www.londoncentric.media/p/asf-aziz-l...

open.substack.com/pub/londonce... Fantastic piece on how scam shops in central London work

BOE Governor Bailey has just confirmed our scoop from this morning that the central bank will step back from creating a digital pound if commercial banks press ahead enough with payment innovations. Read our story 👇 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Thoroughly enjoying Reeves' war on the little critters getting in the way of growth. In Jan she said we must "stop worrying about the bats and the newts." In April, it was the "absolutely insane" bat tunnel again. Today, at the Lords, the snails got it in the neck (foot?)

Must read piece from @alexwickham.bsky.social on the “Starmtrooper” rebellion over welfare reforms www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Reeves says that defence spending will not rise above 2.6pc until the next parliament. But Treasury pushes back, saying this is a misreading of her words www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Reeves will be keen there is progress at next week's EU summit. If a deal can be struck in time for the Autumn budget on dynamic alignment on goods that removes border frictions, the reward will be £10-15bn more headroom and less risk of tax rises. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Brexit may have helped the UK secure half the tariff the EU faces, but leaves the country weaker in negotiations What comes next ... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"There is really no methodology there," said Mary Lovely, Senior Fellow at @piie.com. " "It is like finding you have cancer and finding the medication is based on your weight divided by your age. The word 'reciprocal' is deeply misleading." www.reuters.com/world/trumps...

Oxford Economics' @andrewgoodwin.bsky.social cuts 2026 UK growth forecast to 1.0% (pvs 1.5%) after Trump tariffs. "The OBR will almost certainly cut its growth forecast and revise up borrowing projections in response," Goodwin says, adding that another fiscal policy overhaul is looking more likely.

8 THOUGHT ON ONE OF THE CRAZIEST DAYS EVER From the newsletter. Subscribe here. www.bloomberg.com/account/news...

Trump objects to EU's €147bn goods deficit with the US. Following the same logic, surely the EU ought to object to the US's €109bn services deficit with the EU. If Trump is consistent, he should support tariffs on US tech and banks.

A long way to go of course but Labour’s first 8 months have been a struggle. Here’s our scorecard for this parliament’s economic priorities. That 80pc employment target already looks implausible www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

🏦 Arguably a bigger deal for the Bank of England than this morning's GDP data - a noticeable uptick in inflation expectations in its survey of the public. They will see it as backing the need for caution in cutting interest rates.

How journalism works (and why while I’m less fussed than I used to be about being ripped off). If you pick up the print Daily Mail today, or look at the top of MailOnline right now, you’ll find a an exclusive special investigation into London’s Harry Potter shops and the couple who “own” them.

Govt officials are piling pressure on UK pension funds to commit 10% of their assets to listed & unlisted British equities as part of a new Mansion House compact. The veiled threat is: agree something meaningful or risk being mandated w/ @kehnscherper.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

They called their crypto extortion/ malware gang 'Evil Corp', because of course they would. www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/who-we-are/p...

For some reason or other Basic Books have decided to bring forward the publication date of my new book "Exile Economics" to 15 May 2025 ⏰🚨 It's all about tariffs, trade wars, protectionism, self-sufficiency, isolationism...🚢📦❌

Britain's defence spending boost was a win-win. A diplomatic coup for the PM and an extra £2.4bn+ for the Chx. The aid-to-arms budget switch helped because a third of defence spending is capital, which is excluded from Reeves' budget rule. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"For the first time ever, young women are more likely to be out of the workforce because they're off long-term sick, than because they are looking after children" @chris-smyth.bsky.social speaking at our event earlier this week. Catch up here 👉 buff.ly/JcsOODM

Was Michael Gove right? There's a brave question to start a thread about my latest post... But in the current turmoil it might help liberals to think through the limits of 'expert-led politics', which is but one branch of liberalism. 🧵1/n benansell.substack.com/p/politics-w...

European leaders look to rehabilitate Zelenskiy and rekindle a deal with the US, from @alexwickham.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Consumer confidence is in the dumps, more so than it should be. As household consumption accounts for 2/3rds of GDP that’s a problem. Reeves is casting around for a growth plan. Giving sentiment a boost would surely be worth a go. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

This is an exceptional analysis piece by @gideonrachman.bsky.social on the implications of the Trump Administration's stance towards Europe for Europe I want to say it's highly provocative, but I fear it's the basecase. A rupture and realignment, unfolding before us www.ft.com/content/11f1...