Rawls’ Veil of Ignorance, but UK party edition

Game over

One chokepoint, global compounding effects: 18 PRIF researchers show how the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affects different regions and intersects with conflict dynamics. Read now on #PRIFblog ⤵️ blog.prif.org/en/2026/05/0...

Can we please stop interpreting these weekly „how would you vote“ polls as sacred truths, thank you

Kein Doktorand vor mir hat so etwas ertragen müssen.

“What has gone missing are the institutional consequences that disapproval used to trigger. Public opinion is working. The machinery that once converted public opinion into accountability is not. The jury came back. The foreman spoke and then everyone went out to lunch, including the accused.”

Priceless post from the official White House social media

I discussed the use of AI with my students today. What really stood out to me is that they are as concerned/confused/irritated as we are. We shouldn’t assume that most of them will use AI to cheat, and instead develop policies in class that establish a shared understanding of how to use AI.

YouGov finally starts to ask the important questions

In a new study my collaborators and I focus on this alternative hypothesis. We asked participants if this statement is true or false: “The Canadian Armed Forces have been secretly developing an elite army of genetically engineered, super intelligent, giant raccoons to invade nearby countries”.

Poll: More Europeans see US as threat than China Washington outranks Beijing as a threat in Spain, Italy, Belgium and Germany, according to POLITICO Pulse survey.

Difficult to describe how unusual it is for @icrc.org to speak publicly like this. "Heavy explosive weapons with wide-area effects struck densely populated urban areas, including the capital Beirut, without effective advance warnings." ICRC Outraged by Deadly Strikes in Densely Populated Areas

A ceasefire deal ordered from Wish

📕 Mein neues Buch "Das Recht der Gewalt. Warum Waffen allein keinen Frieden schaffen" erscheint am 15. Juli 2026 @reclamverlag.bsky.social Darin beschäftige ich mich mit Völkerrecht, Krieg und Frieden - von Thukydides bis in die jüngste Gegenwart. 1(2 Mehr hier: www.reclam.de/produktdetai...

okay hear me out

God help us.

A ton of great thoughts in this 🧵, especially the engagement with some of the fundamental literature about public opinion in democracies

Disgraceful! The US/Israel just bombed Sharif University in Tehran. This is not only Iran's best university, but also a top 100 global university in the field of Civil Engineering. It has also been a center of student opposition to the Iranian gov And Trump just bombed it...

If there is one significant factor across all studies about public opinion on war then it is that the American public really dislikes military casualties. Let’s see how this story develops.

Beirut yesterday (Guardian)

This. Ich hab auch das Gefühl, viele Männer verstehen gar nicht, wie heftig die ganze Geschichte auch unbeteiligte Frauen trifft. Das reiht sich ein in eine lange Liste (Epstein, Pelicot, Rammstein, etc.), die Frauen zeigt, dass sie nirgendwo sicher sind. Das ist brutal.

das ist wirklich übel

Das Sondervermögen wurde mit dem Versprechen der Zusätzlichkeit durchgesetzt. Jetzt zeigen Ifo und IW: So gut wie alles zweckentfremdet, reiner Verschiebebahnhof. Die Regierung vergibt nicht nur eine historische Chance, sie schenkt den Rechten das Narrativ vom unfähigen Staat. Was für ein Desaster.

Entire families wiped out and towns emptied as Israel’s war on Lebanon intensifies

„The USA loses its long-term status as a liberal democracy – for the first time in over 50 years. […] The speed with which American democracy is currently dismantled is unprecedented in modern history“ (V-Dem 2026)

Atrocity upon atrocity. Every detail here is worse than the last. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

Mit Jürgen Habermas ist einer der Riesen von uns gegangen, von deren Schultern wir Zwerge in die Welt gucken.

I was in a 2 hour briefing today on the Iran War. All the briefings are closed, because Trump can't defend this war in public. I obviously can't disclose classified info, but you deserve to know how incoherent and incomplete these war plans are. 1/ Here's what I can share:

Ein Politiker sexualisiert Schulmädchen und die Republik greift die Frau an, die das öffentlich gemacht hat. Und ihr tut so, als würde euch Epstein schockieren. Das ist genau das Klima, das sowas überhaupt über Jahre hinweg ermöglicht hat.

Today we're releasing AI for RStudio. It's really, really good—I'd encourage you to point it at the messiest data sources you have and see what it can do. www.simonpcouch.com/blog/2026-03...

„Ambos: Soweit ich sehe, herrscht nicht nur hierzulande weitgehend Konsens, dass dieser Krieg völkerrechtswidrig ist. Manche sprechen von einer manifesten Verletzung der UN-Charta, andere sogar von einem Angriffskrieg.“

eLearning 2.0: our fully revised course on Arms Control, Disarmament, and Non-Proliferation is now online! The new version features fresh content, more expert diversity, a new user-friendly design, and flexible learning. Find the course here: nonproliferation-elearning.eu @eunpdc.bsky.social

Great blog post by @gelliottmorris.com which is backed by decades of academic research. How you ask a question impacts how people answer the question! This has important consequences for how to think about puic opinion and how to treat opinion polls. Short 🧵

Die 18. ECIB Tagung war ein voller Erfolg! Innovative Ansätze, lebhafte Diskussionen und drei Tage, die die Bandbreite der #IB gezeigt haben. Besonders dankbar sind wir unseren Diskutant:innen, deren Input unseren Austausch so wertvoll gemacht hat. Bis zum nächsten Mal!

Page 1 ad in Haaretz today: Settler pogroms against Palestinians in WBank are war crimes. Prime minister responsible for not stopping them. Orders to army officers to allow these actions are illegally & must be refused. Among those signing: Former Likud justice ministers Dan Meridor & Meir Shitreet

Make Monroe Great Again?! Nun auch online auf @faznet.bsky.social: Mein Beitrag zur zweischneidigen Geschichte der Monroe-Doktrin. www.faz.net/aktuell/feui... cc @fgz-risc.bsky.social @prif.org @goetheuni.bsky.social

This is somewhere between 40-50% of deployable US air power (and it’s still growing). On a scale with the Gulf Wars.

A retired British primary school administrator with a British passport and a valid visa was shackled, chained and detained for six weeks by ICE www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

Quite the chart

how is everything so impossibly stupid

how not to Zeitenwende

The more time passes, the more I’m convinced that the only numbers he genuinely cares about are from US public opinion. Only if these are in large majority against what he plans, he’ll adapt. In the current political system and his administration, this makes public opinion explicitly powerful.

Auschwitz was at the end of a process. We must remember that it did not start from gas chambers. This hatred gradually developed: from ideas, words, stereotypes & prejudice through legal exclusion, dehumanization & escalating violence... to systematic and industrial murder. Auschwitz took time.

This was a threat of force. I don’t understand how anyone can interpret this differently.

He is 100% threatening to use force. He still might not, but a headline that accepts this as a climb-down from force is simply inaccurate. And his word means nothing anyway.

Is this the most dangerous, and unhinged, international speech by a US president ever? Demands Greenland (and Iceland). Threatens Canada. Trashes NATO. Makes fun of leaders. Disparages Europe's environmental goals. Carney was right to call our current moment a "rupture"

2024: can Europe defend itself ALONGSIDE America? 2025: can Europe defend itself WITHOUT America? 2026: can Europe defend itself AGAINST America?

I‘m just hoping that all this Greenland saga eventually will turn out positive for the people of Greenland. I think they never had such attention on their very own interests. This might be a turning point in how the international society, and especially Denmark, will recognise them.