Excited to share new study in Criminology (open access) on GLP-1s & violence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... Among current GLP-1 users, the link b/t impulsivity and violence was flat across impulsivity levels. Similar story w/alcohol use. More to come from me & @daniel-semenza.bsky.social

I made a small visualisation of the birthplace and nation represented of players at the World Cup. Stunning 96(!) players born in France. You can play with it here: claude.ai/public/artif...

"Whatever Israel does, including Lebanon in the MOU gives Iran leverage in future talks... Iran could cite Israel’s actions to scuttle future talks with the US. Or Iran could strategically ignore Israel’s military activity if they like how negotiations are going." The US-Iran deal, point by point:

New paper with Niklas Jakobsson ✅ Did the 2024 Eurovision final in Malmö affect crime? We find that non-police initiated crime went down during Eurovision week - but this was counteracted by increases in adjacent weeks - so displacement rather than reduction. www.scup.com/eprint/7IZQE...

New (null) paper out ✅ led by Jens Widmark Using a staggered DiD, we evaluated interventions such as improved lighting & reinforced access points in basements and attics. There was no significant reduction in theft associated with the interventions. criminologicalencounters.org/index.php/cr...

I just took a look at the summary of my publications - and the 42 papers of mine that have gotten accepted for publication are spread out across 23 different journals. About as many are in journals I only published in once (14) as journals I published in two or three times (16) and more (12).

New paper out✅ In work led by Mia Puur we do Risk Terrain Modeling of 32 Swedish cities and show that city characteristics matter a little for model performance - whereas methodoligical choices matter much more. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Yesterday the students who volunteer to do systematic social observations of hotspots presented their work on a poster. They are observing policing, crime and disorder to enable analysis on what it looks like and how it is related- a bit of replication on Koper 1995

📣New Article: Measuring geographies of fear of crime and crime in semi‑rural Sweden Nicklas Guldåker, Karl Kronkvist, and @mannegerell.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

New paper out in Methodological Innovations with Nicklas Guldåker and Karl Kronkvist. We study places perceived as unsafe, and note that a lack of data is hampering research on the topic. To advance the question we test and compare to data collection methods journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

New paper:🚨 A Model of Social Duties 🚨, with @toreellingsen.bsky.social, in Journal of Political Economy (lead article). www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... Free version: drive.google.com/file/d/1-I7E... We present a conceptualization and a formal model of duties and duty-based motivation.

Kommunikationsavdelningen bad mig kommentera att 13-åringar ska kunna sättas i fängelse med anledning av en satsning som universitetet gör kring forskning i valrörelsen. TL/DR. Forskningen är skeptisk, men förståeligt att regeringen vill göra något. www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbhm...

Same here! Since Trump’s return, I have had almost no interview requests from US media but also almost no lecture invitations from US NGOs or universities (!). Invitations for academic and public speaking from the rest of the world are the same level if not higher.

New York City, Washington DC and Philadelphia all are reporting the fewest murders through Q1 ever recorded (note that NYC's data is only through March 29 but the city should easily set a new low). Detroit reported the fewest murders recorded there through March since 1964.

Remember to be wary, as today is the only day of the year that incorrect or misleading information is posted on the internet.

🎉🎈🍾Very good news - today our consortium led by Lund University were awarded a "Strategic research area" for practice oriented research on crime. A strategic research area is a large, semi-permanent, addition to research funds. We will receive SEK 25 million per year from 2028.

"Autocratization is now truly global. (...) In 2025, Western Europe and North America registers the most notable decline on both country- and population-weighted averages. This is primarily due to the recent developments in the US." V-Dem released its latest report. www.v-dem.net/documents/75...

nu i höstas hände det här mig med. på torsdagsförmiddagen skrev jag en tweet om Jessika Stegrud. på fredagsmorgonen ringde soc min fru. två anmälningar hade kommit in en timme efter att jag publicerat min tweet, och i dem påstods det att jag hade slagit mitt barn på tunnelbanan.

#PrisonMatters #ChildrenMatter #OffShoring prisoners... 👀 *The new policies include an agreement w/ #Estonia to jail #Swedish citizens & longer sentences for all, including children*. @joakimkulin.bsky.social @mannegerell.bsky.social francescrook.substack.com/p/copy-swede...

1/ Has life expectancy fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic? In a new pre-print, we find that 31 of 34 high-income countries had still not returned to their expected life expectancy trajectories five years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6... #demography

It's fascinating to me that Sweden, once global pariah for flouting lockdown consensus, seems to have come out better than even its Scandinavian neighbours

Bluesky is the new science Twitter, new study by @whysharksmatter.bsky.social and Julia Wester concludes! "Results show that for every reported professional benefit that scientists once gained from Twitter, scientists can now gain that benefit more effectively on Bluesky than on Twitter."

Emelie Stiernströmer has a scoping review of facial recognition technology in law enforcement out now. It is a small but growing field, 11 studies but the oldest from 2020. Most studies are on attitudes, and more research on its use and impact needed. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Overall, I think our results are: 1. Believable. I think deep down we all know we publish "too many" significant results. 2. Disastrous. Selecting on significance in this way biases results across our whole literature away from zero & it stops us from learning what doesn't work.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

First post of the year, new paper out today: we present possibly the biggest case of systematic Measurement Schmeasurement in tech use. It seems that most studies on gaming (videogame) addiction/disorder haven't measured gaming after all. This research took years, so long 🧵 doi.org/10.1098/rsos...

We're consumed by stories of murder, but how much do you know about homicide in England and Wales? Every day this week I'm going to post a thread summarising a different aspect of what data can tell us about the nature of homicide. 🧵

Preliminary 2025 crime stats for Sweden were released today. Over all a 3% (50k) drop in police reported crimes. This is driven by large drops in theft (-12%, -43k) and vandalism (-13%, -26k). Assaults up 4% (+3k) and fraud up 1% (+3k). (Link in Swedish) bra.se/statistik/st...

You've heard about the @MarkJCarney speech. You should listen to it all. It is one of great speeches of all time. We will talk of this for decades. www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQOr...

Mark Carney's speech really is terrific: full text is here and very much worth your time.

Spiralling.

I’ve never seen a US president hated this broadly worldwide. Trump’s name comes up in bars,coffee shops far from America, and it’s never complimentary. That’s before you factor in the US itself.

Man, Du Bois had some bangers, but for me, it doesn't get much better than his scathing indictment of the "Christianity" of the United States. Certainly this was all true of the nation in his lifetime. But in my lifetime, his criticisms have never felt so true of the nation right now.

It is really time to cut all ties with the US. It is an autocracy that uses force of different means to achieve more power. I do not understand why the European response is so muted.

Europe. Is moving military assets. To deter an invasion. By the United States of America.

Bara ett år har sett färre mord sedan 60-talet.

Shootings continue to drop in Sweden, in some categories dramatically. Since 2022, shootings (incl. incidents w/no injuries) down by 65% & shooting injuries down by 60%. 43 deaths in 2025, but 2025 included worst mass shooting in Swedish history w/10 killed. Without that, deaths down 50% since 2022.

One example of how Grok is being used to target women. Swedish Deputy Prime Minister Ebba Busch being sexualised, degraded, and humiliated step-by-step by Grok. All the images accurately reflect the prompts provided.

The thing that’s so dumb about this is that there’s nothing legitimate about the strategic importance of Greenland that the US doesn’t get through existing alliances. Denmark isn’t impeding US strategic interests. It’s about them wanting to increase US land area by 20%.

Jan. 6 was widely condemned at the time, recognized as a violent attack on America. Trump clearly caused it by lying about the election to attempt a coup. Within a year, Trump, GOP politicians and right-wing media flipped Republicans to neutral/positive, rendering it another muddy partisan dispute.

When the original version of this "Procedural Justice Training Works" study came out in PNAS a couple of years ago I posted the thread below on twitter. I'm going to re-post here because as far as I can tell the same questions apply to this new study.

Paper with Mia-Maria Magnusson accepted in International Journal of Drug Policy ✅ The geography of drug markets, drug crime and systemic gang violence – Open drug scenes in Sweden   I will be back with a thread outlining the findings when it is published.

Our new study provides rare causal evidence about NYC’s speed camera program. We find large reductions in collisions (30%) and injuries (16%) near intersections with cameras. www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1... @astagoff.bsky.social ky.social @brendenbeck.bsky.social nbeck.bsky.social 🧪

Stunning admission from Trump in his Politico interview. He confesses he knows almost nothing about the drug trafficking of the guy he pardoned even though he helped bring 500 tons of cocaine into US. Trump also reveals his narcissism makes him easy to manipulate: newrepublic.com/article/2041...

Another grant rejection. ❌ I believe that is the fourth for this year.

Again...a reminder WE GET NO FENTANYL FROM VENEZUELA We are about to go to war on a pretense more ridiculous than Iraq

Swedish bureaucracy: Organized international workshop doing crime scripts on cocain smuggling. EU-funded. Everyone got lunch at a Uni restaurant. Have now finished the billing procedure, and found out I need to get everyone who participated from our end to report this as a taxable benefit.

A new Chinese law regulating influencer speech has gotten applause from social media users and commentators who want similar policies in their own countries. But the truth is far from what's in the news and it's a sad reflection of our internet and media space. wenhao.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...

Why impact evaluations are so important: not everything that sounds like a good policy actually has the desired impact. While many interventions are highly effective, others don't work at all:

I have an undergrad who is doing work on how different news networks used different terms over the past 15 years. Here is "woke" at Fox News and in official congressional e-newsletters