I have a new piece with The Guardian where I look into the history of aerial confrontations going back to the Cold War. I argue that intruding Russian aircraft must be shot down as a prophylactic measure. There will not be a nuclear war. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

“Companies in the sector have raised €2.4bn since the start of 2022 including €1.4bn in the first seven months of this year alone, up from just €30mn in 2020 and €150mn in 2021” on.ft.com/3VJiU0d

Josephine Baker’s secret war | @matthefler.bsky.social engelsbergideas.com/portraits/jo...

The man who brought Sweden in from the cold | Rikard Westerberg engelsbergideas.com/portraits/th...

Must read from General Hayden and David Gioe www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Glad speaking with @svenskadagbladet1.bsky.social on US intelligence on Iran and how to consider the public disputes around assessments 🇺🇸 Though hard to guauge from outside, recent events remind us to beware politicization of intelligence or secret services 🌍 English 👇 www.svd.se/a/kwoBJX/exp...

🚨📚 New Publication - The #Intelligence Behind the Strike: Was Everyone Wrong About Iran’s Nuclear Program? 🇮🇱🇮🇷 in @thecipherbrief.bsky.social www.thecipherbrief.com/intelligence...

Thanks to Sweden’s national TV network @svtnyheter.bsky.social for getting my reaction to 🇸🇪's recent intelligence review by Carl Bildt 🌍 I said that a new foreign intelligence agency will take time and must reflect Sweden's security needs and "intelligence culture" 🛠️ 🇸🇪 www.svt.se/nyheter/inri...

Me in @TheCriticMag: David Ben-Gurion believed Israel in its hostile region could never have finality on its terms. It would always have to deter, requiring discipline. Netanyahu's war of temptation on Iran rejects that vision. Decisiveness may elude him. thecritic.co.uk/deterrence-r...

Stuck in Copenhagen airport all day, but luckily I have some great reading material with me 📚

What happens when allies don’t see eye to eye on intelligence? warontherocks.com/20...

American intel agencies have assessed that, despite Israel's attack, Iran has not decided to move to a nuclear weapon. That could change, officials said, if the US attacks Fordo or Israel kills the Supreme leader. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/u...

Israel’s secret war inside Iran https://on.ft.com/44or9UI

Exclusive: President Trump told senior aides he approved attack plans for Iran, but is holding off on giving the final order to see if Tehran will abandon its nuclear program.

NEW: In @globeopinion.bsky.social, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and I argue that the US should not become a pawn in the Israel-Iran war www.bostonglobe.com/2025/06/18/o...

SCOOP: Tulsi Gabbard cancels Senate Intel briefing

My latest BCISS blog post on the Iran Israel war. Was Iran really close to building a bomb? I doubt it, but who knows?! The pretext and cause for war are far less certain than its consequences. intelligencestudiesreview.blog/2025/06/18/s...

On ‘64, I’d also add Burr and Richelson’s article in International Security (www.jstor.org/stable/2626706) and a @sarabcastro.bsky.social chapter about assumptions and intelligence on China’s nuclear programme (bokforlagetstolpe.com/en/books/int...).

I’ve been thinking a lot about Frank Gavin’s ‘Nuclear Statecraft’, in particular ch. 4 on US policy towards China’s nuclear test in ‘64. Provocative for thinking about the risks of nuclear armed rogue states and proliferation in 2025. An analogy to ‘64 perhaps shows a rush to war is unnecessary?

Will China's spy agencies adopt A.I. tools faster than the west? New report by Recorded Future on Chinese intelligence agencies investments in A.I. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/u...

Podcast alert! 🚨 📻 I had the pleasure of chatting about my collection Intelligence and Contemporary Conflict on "Yukiko and Patrik meet"👇 This book brings together experts on issues of intelligence and security and was produced by the Ax:son Johnson Institute 🌍 open.spotify.com/episode/6VsQ...

With a lot of discussion about the US-Israel alliance in the news, I’m resharing an article I wrote last year for @engelsbergideas.bsky.social on how LBJ and the Cold War 1960s helped establish what became a special relationship 🇺🇸🇮🇱

A small boost for intelligence services in the spending review. "At this SR, the government will deliver an increase of £0.6 billion to the Single Intelligence Account...by 2028‑29, reflecting the rising demand on the [IC] to illuminate & deter threats." www.gov.uk/government/p...

Ukraine’s drone strike against Russia and Israel’s operations against Hezbollah show how technological advances and good tradecraft can potentially alter the course of wars

Why would a country sabotage its own security agencies in wartime? Israel's leadership crisis reveals a troubling global pattern. warontherocks.com/20...

Donald Trump’s nuclear nightmares | In conversation with Fiona Hill engelsbergideas.com/essays/in-co...

New report from our member Elena Grossfeld (@kloosha.bsky.social) 'Quantity Has a Quality All of Its Own' — how Russian intelligence shifted to mass, low-cost tactics post-Ukraine invasion. Sabotage, spying & disruption at scale. What does it mean for NATO? www.cna.org/reports/2025...

“Because he has been taking the PDB a little less than once a week on average, Trump currently receives a product that one of the people familiar with the PDB discussions described as the “best of” highlights from the past week, in addition to anything new that day.” www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...

New research from me - published in the @officialbaas.bsky.social Journal of American Studies - on William Raborn's tenure as Director of Central Intelligence. 🇺🇲 Including the Dominican Intervention, Vietnam, and some tragicomic anecdotes. Available Open Access 🔓: shorturl.at/PG4Eb

New research from me - published in the @officialbaas.bsky.social Journal of American Studies - on William Raborn's tenure as Director of Central Intelligence. 🇺🇲 Including the Dominican Intervention, Vietnam, and some tragicomic anecdotes. Available Open Access 🔓: shorturl.at/PG4Eb

In his latest for Binding Hook, @kirichenko.bsky.social interviews a member of Ukraine’s IT Army, a group of volunteer hackers supporting the war effort. #cyberconflict #russiaukrainewar #ITArmyofUkraine bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...

The Swedish Defence University advertises a postdoc focused on ”narrative geopolitics” - or how widespread and emotionally charged narratives influence international security, great power relations, and geostrategic rivalry. Deadline August 31: fhs.varbi.com/en/what:job/...

New EBB from @ajimenezbacardi.bsky.social and @lucatrenta.bsky.social for the @nsarchive.bsky.social on the US role in the 1963 coup and assassination of South Vietnamese President Ngô Đình Diệm. Some really fascinating new documents here. (Click below to read) nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-boo...

'If the threat to European security is genuinely grave, and increased UK-EU cooperation is vital to security, then why are both sides holding up progress over relatively minor domestic priorities and legacy disagreements?' notes @edrusi.bsky.social.

Me in yesterday’s Sunday Times (£) trying to put recent major UK cyber incidents into context: 1. The scale of this is so vast, & the vast majority of it comes from outside the UK. For that reason it breaks traditional policing 1/3 www.thetimes.com/article/364e...

The company’s artificial-intelligence tool Lura is at the heart of the setup, processing data from SG-1 Fathom drones.

The insight from every RMA… “Right now [the battlefield] is not about new technology,” Yakovenko told the Financial Times in his headquarters in the Black Sea port of Odesa. “It’s about how to adapt to new strategies.” on.ft.com/4jUroME

Direct peace talks: a possibility? open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... In this substack, I discuss the likelihood of direct Russian-Ukrainian peace talks, some of the core issues that separate the two sides, and what we are to expect in coming months. [Free].

⁉️ What does the UK public think about GCHQ, MI5, MI6/SIS? Do they trust them? 🆕️ In this new Intelligence & National Security article, we study 🇬🇧 public trust and knowledge in detail. 📊 The results make interesting reading. If you're interested, link here ⏬️ 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

FT Exclusive: Elbridge Colby, the third-most senior official at the Pentagon, has told British officials that the Trump administration believes the UK military should increase its focus on the Euro-Atlantic region, according to people familiar with the matter. www.ft.com/content/21df...

Great essay from @davidpriess.bsky.social on the delicate role briefings can play in American intelligence-policy relations.

Buyout groups and VCs ready to play role in Europe’s rearmament https://www.ft.com/content/a414486d-ed45-4eac-b6c4-f966b2e12714

New: The U.S. is stepping up its intelligence-gathering efforts regarding Greenland, drawing America’s spying apparatus into President Trump’s campaign to take over the island. www.wsj.com/world/greenl...

India retaliates against Pakistan: “A little while ago, the Indian Armed Forces launched ‘OPERATION SINDOOR’, hitting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir from where terrorist attacks against India have been planned and directed.”

My piece on a week of major Pentagon reforms. Hegseth is slashing the number of generals—a 20% cut in four-stars. Army is focusing on homeland & Asia, investing in drones & AI, reshuffling commands and cancelling kit—incl the M10 light tank, which arrived last year. www.economist.com/united-state...

An excellent couple of days in DC at SAIS! 🇺🇸

New article published in Intelligence and National Security titled "Is the mere existence of an intelligence committee enough? Learning from the case study of the Finnish parliament" by Tapio Raunio at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

It was great to give a guest lecture on CSSC’s Applied History module yesterday in Stockholm. We discussed American intelligence and strategy during the Vietnam War and what they can tell us about contemporary intel-policy relations. 🇺🇸

Why China is winning the geopolitical battle in Africa | Mpiti Mosothoane engelsbergideas.com/notebook/why...

The Shallow State: Trump 2.0 is putting America’s critical intelligence liaison relationships in jeopardy @warstudieskcl.bsky.social visiting professor David Gioe writes that Trump's return to the Oval Office may force U.S. allies to keep more of their secrets to themselves.