This is a good write up, but, I think it's missing an important angle. The challenge is that people *want* to believe it's true, and that post was perfectly calibrated to appeal to people's priors, in spite of having a lot of obvious "tells" that had nothing to do with AI.

Of course it would probably help if I pasted the right url: federicov.github.io/uncertainty-...

My first foray into systems biology -- this work was led by Boya Hou, a postdoctoral researcher at UIUC, now on the academic job market. She presented an early version of these results at the @nitmb.bsky.social MathBio Convergence Conference in August of 2025.

Following @nsaphra.bsky.social - will try to do more science posting here as well. Here is a little project I worked on during the Christmas break. Using semantic entropy as a regularizer to calibrate LLM uncertainty: federicov.github.io/uncertainty-...

I find it hard to square the preciousness about "why would someone ever stay on Twitter?" when everyone on this site knows that the community here intentionally chased off lots of people.

will do the same!

What if you could train agents on a 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗲 of driving experience in 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝗻 𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗿, on a single GPU? Excited to share 𝙋𝙪𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙧𝘿𝙧𝙞𝙫𝙚 2.0: A fast, friendly driving simulator with RL training via PufferLib at 𝟯𝟬𝟬𝗞 𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗽𝘀/𝘀𝗲𝗰 🐡 + 🚗 youtu.be/LfQ324R-cbE?...

I appreciate the forthright acknowledgement of the mistake from the author, and look forward to decisive action by @princetonupress.bsky.social to correct this error, and any others, that made it past their robust editorial process.

I actually think people are earnest when they believe that <claim> is false. The process of justification is something like: - <claim> is upheld by people I don't like, which is very strong evidence it's false. - <claim> undermines something I think is important or implies a trade off

Behold, the king of all academics: you might enjoy this @lastpositivist.bsky.social

Deleted a post that was going viral and bringing an undesirable amount of attention from anonymous accounts. But, I'm going to be honest, the toxic folks here have won. So much of the usage of the site is about avoiding their attention. I'll just use this site to get book recs going forward

Great interview between Ezra Klein and the Ellie Hassenfield - the leader of Givewell: www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/o... Gifting the article here - highly encouraging everyone to donate to them, they are an amazing organization staffed by amazing people.

There's a sucker born every minute as the saying goes. People who bet on the president's meme coins being their ticket to riches have been sorely disappointed. $TRUMP is down 92% since its peak and $MELANIA was down 99%. At this point, you can only blame yourself if you fell for this grift.

Extraordinary courage from Ahmed al Ahmed, a Muslim, 43-year-old father of two, who bravely risked his life to save his neighbors celebrating Hanukkah. Praying for his full & speedy recovery. And so deeply inspired by his example.

Incredible piece on Oliver Sacks. If you were ever awed at his supposedly true stories (I remember being stunned by the account of the autistic twins who rattled off large prime numbers), read this. He told wonderful stories, but they were in large part fiction. www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...

I have purchased the PACER documents so everyone can read the impact statements submitted by victims of Do Kwon and the 2022 Terra/Luna meltdown. Collapses like these ruin lives. www.courtlistener.com/docket/67087...

Can vision transformers learn without images?🤔👀 Our latest work shows that pretraining ViTs on procedural symbolic data (eg sequences of balanced parentheses) makes subsequent standard training (eg on ImageNet) more data efficient! How is this possible?! ⬇️🧵

Listening to Ballmer reflect on running Microsoft. He highlighted key mistakes: 1. Hubris in trying to compete everywhere. 2. Spreading too thin without the talent. 3. Failing to decouple new efforts from core. 4. Ignoring Wall Street investors. Mistakes a lot of tech companies still make today

I find this sort of messaging so much better than insisting that the USA is somehow poor in aggregate.

Mentioning the amount of grant money you have won in a way that makes the department chair happy without coming across too blatantly as bragging that you piss off the other professors in audience.

Please report this to petrl.org - the amount of torture done to Grok through RL to get these responses is off the charts.

Basically saying "if you do crime for me, I won't only pardon you--I'll give you millions of dollars of public money." Truly unprecedented level of corruption www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I fully understand the causal point, but, if in the real world, candidate quality ends up being very tightly correlated with ideology, then, filtering by ideology is completely viable. This is quite obviously what's going on - there is a very simple DAG too.

New YouTube video uploaded on connections between Riemann zeta and Brownian motion! What does Riemann Zeta have to do with Brownian Motion? youtu.be/YTQKbgxbtiw

A big motivation for posting a lot about AI and the environment was that I was seeing a lot of people otherwise on my side about most things refusing to touch this tool that imo you really in fact ought to just try and see what it can do

I know there's a lot going on, but occasionally it's good to remind people that billions of animals suffer in crazy conditions in factory farms. In the U.S. it's gotten worse / denser in recent yrs, contrary to popular conception. https://www.palladiummag.com/2025/11/01/factory-farming-is-a-blight/

My son was basically a celebrity trick or treating tonight. He was on cloud 9 from all the attention. Worth the effort!

ladies and gentlemen...we got him

Nowhere in this article is there any attempt to grapple with municipal finance beyond going "I don't understand this but it involves banks so it's a scam", nor any discussion of *why* Chicago is in a fiscal crisis, just warmed over OWS left-populist conspiraslop. thebaffler.com/latest/payin...

all I'm gonna say is that these posts are hours apart

And now might be a good time to mention, I’m on the faculty job market this year! I do work in human-AI collusion, collaboration and competition, with an eye towards building foundations for trustworthy AI. Check out more info on my website here! Nataliecollina.com

Wow if this turns out to be a tipoff it’s going to undo years of hard work to establish trust and confidence in crypto mar- nah, I’m just kidding. If you’re not cheating in crypto you’re the fish. It’s just a matter of time.

Some aspects of joining us at the University of Sydney: * my colleagues are the best! * salary is not only competitive, it's over 12 months * teaching load is 2 classes ("units") per year * Sydney is a truly wonderful place to live in You don't have to believe me—come to #FOCS2025 to check it out :)

@lastpositivist.bsky.social have you seen this already? www.reddit.com/r/Grimdank/s...

Colin McGinn --

Regarding this discussion here bsky.app/profile/fede... with @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social - there was a recent interview from Ezra Klein where he discusses his writing about Kirk: youtu.be/iUAGkuq48zY?... which I think agrees with my reading of his arguments as being at least partially instrumental

Oh. My. God. www.popsci.com/environment/...

Trying to get onto the right blocklists: - Most of the time I like Ezra Klein - AI can be quite good sometimes - Very often, markets are effective solutions to problems - Building more housing, not necessarily affordable, is necessary for lowering housing prices

I thought this article was very bad, specifically because it was extremely sloppy with understanding statistics: For example - here, the paper puts together 3 forecasts that are completely different. Nate Silver's forecast is extremely good (given the data), while the Princeton one is garbage.

“If you resort to violence, all of us who believe in our legal and political system—Democrats and Republicans—will stand together. We will condemn you, and we will prosecute you.” My message after last year's shooting of Trump: Zero tolerance for political violence. I'm sorry it has to be repeated.

Matt Levine here:

oh my god this is just crazy folks github.com/huggingface/...

Quite funny:

There is a precedent: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_No...

Unpacking my take that in the absence of strong Dem leadership/branding, the GOP/conservative media superstructure just picks the most offputting liberal it can find each week and says "that's the Democrats!"

this story is delightful on so many levels

I’ve always wondered why there are no negative consequences for making mistakes of omission. The editors/reviewers who rejected this piece (or mRNA vaccine work or Fermi’s work on neutrons) clearly have poor judgement and should probably not be in a position where they can keep exercising it.