We're hiring! We're after a recent graduate with quant and comms skills to work with me on ideas for the UK's development policy; and on benchmarking development performance. You need to have the right to work in the UK Full details here: centerforglobaldevelopment.applytojob.com/apply/gIODpv...

New survey: Brits think that the UK's new aid budget is too low. One of many interesting findings in the BFPG survey.

The UK Government needs to cut £3bn from its aid budget. But can it also fulfill commitments on greater multilateralism, targeting poverty, and ensuring impact? @samhugh3s.bsky.social and I set three tests on aid allocation that would signify the 'change' promised. www.cgdev.org/blog/how-uk-...

Very rough and ready estimate of the most affected countries by the new tariffs, apologies for errors. Sources in thread. Cambodia, Vietnam, Nicaragua Guyana all *highly* dependent on exports to US (= to 25%+ GNI), facing tariffs 18-38%.

New blog by @justsand.bsky.social and me on USAID cuts by country and updated (again) sectoral cuts based on the list that went to Congress today. Ukraine $1.4bn cut. Ethiopia, the DRC, Colombia, South Africa, Palestine, Bangladesh, Kenya, Afghanistan, and Tanzania >$200m

Make America Great Again by slashing basic health services in the Congo. Hopefully Congress doesn't take these numbers as given.

Today's spring statement quietly revealed that the vast majority of the aid cut the PM announced for 2027 will actually happen in 2026. In fact, 2026/27 will see a 27% cut. That is steeper than the Boris Johnson aid cut in 2021. A short thread on the figures:

We are delighted to announce that @helenmiller.bsky.social has been appointed as the next IFS Director, following on from @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social in July 2025. Find out more:

Fascinating this - do Chinese contractors delivering World Bank projects achieve worse outcomes than others? Answer: no. [US and UK contractors also perform around the average but Australian and French ones do less well]

New @cgdev.org blog from me on the UK aid cut in 2027 as HM Treasury finalise budgets. Just three points: 1) Many are saying the cut needs a 'glidepath'. But this is misleading - glidepaths are supposed to soften cuts. But in this case, it just means making cuts a year sooner.

Incredibly clear thread on the US cuts, and the responsibility Secretary Rubio bears for them

At last some courage and leadership from someone in Labour on international development A mid-sized economic power like the UK cannot spend just 0.3% of income on international issues.

"Sir Keir Starmer is to take UK overseas aid to its lowest level as a percentage of national income since records began" Great to see the @theguardian.com lead with our @cgdev.org analysis. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Even the PM instinctively understands that aid should be spent overseas - his official statement on the cut refers to "Overseas Development Assistance' (usually "Official" Devt Assistance). Let's hope he stops counting the £4-5bn spent in the UK as aid. www.gov.uk/government/n...

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer just cut the UK aid budget from 0.5% of GNI to 0.3% in 2027 to fund increases in defence spending. He says he’s making tough choices, but cutting funding for the world’s poorest people is the easiest—and cruellest—choice he could make (1/4)

NEW: @ianmitchell1.bsky.social & @samhugh3s.bsky.social find a 1 year US aid freeze could trigger an economic shock of 1% of GNI in 23 economies—with 8 countries, incl. South Sudan, Somalia & Ethiopia, facing a devastating 3%+ hit. Which other countries could step up? www.cgdev.org/blog/which-c...

20 years ago this week Nelson Mandela told a UK audience that poverty was man-made and could be eradicated. Most think aid should tackle poverty - but with the US stepping back - is the UK actually focussed on that goal? Does it still care? A 5-point thread on our new @cgdev.org blog & analysis:

Here is United States law regarding the President's attempts to close our development assistance agency in secret over the weekend. It is illegal. No ambiguity. Americans decide with their actions, today, if the US is a country of laws or—something else. —> crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...

The closing panel at #OxCSAE2025 will be 'Evidence-based Policy: Towards an Improved Research-policy Equilibrium in Africa' 🗣️@scepticalranil.bsky.social, Nompumelelo Nyathi-Mohohlwane, Miriam Laker, Justice Tei Mensah, @olihanney.bsky.social Find out more cvent.me/vbN029 Register cvent.me/grRQBN

The world's wealthiest man harming the world's poorest people. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

Rumours that USAID is being eliminated or integrated. Having the State Department or Ministry of Foreign affairs be responsible for aid is what small counties do, not global superpowers.

Very good piece this from Rachel with practical suggestions for a smart US aid review on advancing American interests.

The UK remains one of the largest ever recipients of US aid, thanks to massive post-WWII support.🇺🇸🇬🇧 Roman Napoli, @ianmitchell1.bsky.social & @samhugh3s.bsky.social reflect on the UK-US relationship & draw out lessons on how foreign assistance can help build allies ⬇ www.cgdev.org/blog/special...

Our new blog highlights how abnormal is the current Gov's policy of using the limited foreign aid budget to fund support for asylum seekers within the UK. Before 2014, nearly no UK asylum seeker support was funded via aid, even when it faced spikes in applicants similar to today's (eg around 2000).

Nearly 30% of UK aid is spent on refugees in the UK. But what happened in past refugee spikes? We find if Blair & Brown had taken the current approach, the UK would have spent zero on overseas aid in some years. A 🧵 on new @cgdev.org analysis w/ @samhugh3s.bsky.social:

Extraordinary achievement indeed! Also a case for a multi-country agreement on this

Perversely, Britain now forces a one-to-one tradeoff between one of the most bloated and inefficient bits of government (the asylum system) and one of the most cost-effective (development aid in the poorest countries). My piece in this week's @economist.com: www.economist.com/britain/2024...

"Foreign-aid fiddle" Great to see the @economist.com highlight the UK's misuse use of aid (inc some of our @cgdev.org work w/ @samhugh3s.bsky.social ) economist.com/britain/2024...

Nations agreed on a target of $300bn/year in climate finance for developing nations by 2035. Sounds like a big number, but it's not as ambitious as it seems... 1⃣ Pre-COP, rich nations were already on track to reach $200bn with "no additional effort". ➡️ buff.ly/49o9iyi

Absolutely essential reading for foreign ministers from @charlesjkenny.bsky.social Is it plausible your 10th biggest aid project has a material impact? For most the answer is no. So, focus your efforts in fewer, bigger, less fragmented programmes. www.cgdev.org/blog/tenth-r...

Developed countries have committed to providing billions in climate finance to offset their contribution to the environmental crisis; but much of this funding is being redirected from existing development assistance, @ianmitchell1.bsky.social www.economicsobservatory.com/how-much-cli...

The UK Government has confirmed it will provide £1.98bn to the World Bank's IDA fund over 3 years. This is a step up, a great use of aid and good news. Still, given IDA aligns perfectly with Labour's mission (inc growth & climate) - it could have been much bolder. A 🧵

Indeed. It’s insufficient, ill-defined, with no public finance target, no grant equivalent figure, and no refs to additionality or burden sharing. So much for learning lessons of the $100bn goal!

My take on the #COP29 climate finance goal (#NCQG); based on our model. It will require barely any additional effort from providers and creates a greater risk of diverting funds from existing development finance @fionaharvey.bsky.social @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social @kenzabryan.bsky.social

For those negotiating in Baku on the #NCQG climate finance goal @edwickstead.bsky.social and I have calculated two new scenarios in our @cgdev.bsky.social model of baselines relating to multilateral development banks and the latest negotiating text 1/5

The updated text on the new climate goal #NCQG is finally out, suggesting a goal of $250bn per year by 2035. This figure is slightly above our 'no effort' baseline scenario of $222bn (this increased current efforts by inflation and economic growth). Short 🧵

The anti-business lefties at the Financial Times have called for open beneficial registers in the British Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies www.ft.com/content/0bb3...