Earlier estimates suggested USAID program cancellations could lead to up to 700,000 additional deaths annually. New analysis by @charlesjkenny.bsky.social and @justsand.bsky.social finds the toll could reach 1 million now and 1.6 million with future cuts. Learn more: https://go.cgdev.org/4s0Z8w7

Useful from CDG, costs and tradeoffs of increased defence spending. Depressing that, at the end of the day, there's always more money for guns, and never enough for aid. www.cgdev.org/blog/peace-d...

Everything's dating fast but this from @markleongoldberg.bsky.social & Elizabeth Dickinson is the best analysis I've hear of the Venezuela crisis and the challenges of governing the country now: www.globaldispatches.org/p/the-us-jus...

Good analysis of what's happened to US aid, and what the consequences have been: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Economic development has its sceptics, in this article I look into the case for and against: open.substack.com/pub/terencew...

Trump administration sacks several US ambassadors in Pacific countries: www.rnz.co.nz/internationa...

A grim update on the number of lives potentially lost thanks to US aid cuts from @cgdev.org: www.cgdev.org/blog/update-...

This is spot on from @charlesjkenny.bsky.social. "Aid isn't fairy dust", what it should and shouldn't be focused on: www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...

In parts of academia international development is viewed as a mere construct -- a discourse of control. This is nonsense, as I explain in my most recent Substack post development is real and it matters. open.substack.com/pub/terencew...

Want to know what the real -- actually existing -- China wants? There were two great presentations on this at the Australasian Aid Conference. You can watch them via the links in my newsletter: open.substack.com/pub/terencew...

What if we dealt with the actually existing China in the Pacific rather than the phantom menace that haunts Wellington and Canberra? A barnstorming presentation from Eric Olander at the Australasian Aid Conference summarised neatly in this blog: devpolicy.org/china-the-gl...

What's the state of democracy like in the Pacific? Listen to this Devpol podcast to hear the answers: devpolicytalks.simplecast.com/episodes/pac...

File under "Late Capitalism Afterall". Via Gallup polling

i’m not crying you’re crying xkcd: Fifteen Years

Incredibly proud of this 🤩🥹! So much work and determination behind this publication. What a journey this was! Honored to have done it with you @vickybarone.bsky.social 🚀❤️

Might be of interest @robertwrighter.bsky.social

Argument well made in this NY-Times op-ed that China, whilst not benevolent, is not an expansionary power. Link to interesting journal article too. It would be great if the Australia/NZ Fright Industry paid attention. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/o...

“Food, doctors, and everything else are desperately needed”

An interesting new paper: would people be willing to trade off democracy against things such as affluence and security? journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

File under: "well who could have seen that coming". The Billions to Trillions agenda of using aid to crowd in private finance for development hasn't worked: devpolicy.org/beyond-aid-p...

New Zealand businesses are lobbying the government to tie more of its aid to the Pacific. In this post I explain why this would be a terrible idea: open.substack.com/pub/terencew...?

Dr @terencewoodnz.bsky.social “said that New Zealand's aid approach, amid an ever-increasing scarcity, is becoming more transactional rather than being based on a larger vision for long-term outcomes”. 😬 www.rnz.co.nz/internationa...

Welcome to the new world of aid influencing. This from @timhirschelburns.bsky.social makes me think I need to get out more often, or actually stay in more often and watch YouTube: timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/mrbeast-is...

Note to self THEA (used to be CLEA) has election data on a lot of Pacific countries: electiondataarchive.org/wp-content/u...

More interesting research on NBER: homeless shelters help www.nber.org/papers/w34376

Interesting research: cellphone bans are not unproblematic, but they do seem to lead to better education outcomes: www.nber.org/papers/w34388

Prediction: this is all going to end in tears - www.cgdev.org/blog/other-o...

i desperately want everyone involved in the destruction of USAID to have to, st the very least, answer to the american people for the suffering and misery they have caused apnews.com/article/myan...

Last month, Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka opened Fiji’s new embassy in Jerusalem. My Inside Story report looks at recent Pacific diplomatic support for Israel - a sharp contrast to international condemnation of Israeli policy in Gaza and the occupied West Bank. insidestory.org.au/palestine-an...

Australians are becoming more supportive of aid spending over time. My latest blog post from our public opinion survey data. Very surprised by trends among conservative voters: devpolicy.org/australians-... @amitam.bsky.social

Very useful discussion of some key development economics myths: voxdev.org/topic/mythbu...

Of windmills and windbags, @pkrugman.bsky.social debunks nonsense from the usual suspects on the rise of renewable energy and the decline of coal: open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

Thanks to the New Cold War the 2024 Solomon Islands elections ended up on the international stage. How did things work out? A lot better than the pundits predicted. My new open access journal article on what happened: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

NZ and Australia on this list. Overreach. responsiblestatecraft.org/drug-war-aumf/

Globally, an increasing share of people say they feel safer walking at home at night, though it varies from country to country obviously, and is gendered too. www.gallup.com/analytics/35...

The latest on US aid. Likely lessons to emerge from this: vertical funds are ok actually if they get medicines to people in need; in poorly governed states NGOs are a good alternative; well given aid doesn't cause poor governance, domestic political economy does. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/u...

A blast from the past. What Australia thought about the Pacific during the Old Cold War (1987): nla.gov.au/nla.obj-3381...

This is very helpful. From PNG's NRI a bibliography of all chapters, papers, studies etc. on elections in Papua New Guinea: pngnri.org/images/Publi...

File under trivial curiosities: in the 2002 general election in Papua New Guinea a party called National Front stood 30 candidates. My guess is that their ideology was somewhat different from their northern hemisphere namesakes.

Interesting on attitudes to Israel in the Pacific. In North Malaita there are actually people who believe they are lost tribe of Israelites. Other support is to do with evangelical Christianity and the internet. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/s...

What might the Trump administration's proposed pocket rescission mean for aid flows? Good explainer on @cgdev.org: www.cgdev.org/blog/pocket-...

Is Australian climate adaptation aid really on the rise? Alyssa Leng and I dug into the data. Much of the rise is due to recoding of projects. To make matters worse projects are now more likely to have an adaptation focus in countries less vulnerable to climate change: devpolicy.org/assessing-au...

New Zealand's development NGOs need to take action on Gaza: terencew.substack.com/p/new-zealan...

Papua New Guinea's state-owned electricity company is trading while insolvent, with insiders describing the situation as "hopeless" and "untenable".

🚨Border Patrol arrested two firefighters who were actively fighting a wildfire at the time. When the other members of the crew asked for a chance to say goodbye, a Border Patrol agent told the crew member “you need to get the f*ck out of here. I’m going to make you leave.”

NEW: 50% of Americans think Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, including 77% of Democrats and 51% of Independents. 60% of Americans oppose sending Israel more military aid for use in the Gaza war, including 75% of Democrats and 66% of Independents. Quinnipiac poll: poll.qu.edu/poll-release...

Good post on @cgdev.org from @ianmitchell1.bsky.social & Sam Hughes. How and where should the UK focus its aid amidst cuts. www.cgdev.org/blog/uks-aid...

Does news of US aid cuts change Australians' attitudes to aid? Today's blog answers this question drawing on our latest survey experiment. It also details broader trends in Australian attitudes to aid. devpolicy.org/have-trumps-... @amitam.bsky.social @leecrawfurd.bsky.social

Moraes has given Bolsonaro 48 hours to explain apparent violations of his house arrest. If the explanations are deemed insufficient, he'll go to prison. The deadline will be Friday evening, so put some beer in the fridge just in case you need to celebrate.

Such an important article by @jakescottmd.bsky.social looking at the “evidence” used by RFKjr to support the decision to revoke mrna vaccine research: omit s large studies, misrepresents data, uses irrelevant studies and done without science ie immunology expertise 🧪