Stats NZ has handy NZ poverty data. 3 three poverty lines. Anchored relative line, relative line (both based off 50% median) and an "absolute" needs based line. Good Stata practice. Now I'm tying to infer respective effects of growth, inflation, and intervention from movement of lines. (1/3)

Very interesting from the Development Engagement Lab on trends in public support for aid in the US and several European countries: sdg-communicator.org/2026/02/03/w... Quite different from Australia.

Good from Anatol Lieven on the changing nature of war: responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-war-...

New blog: Millions Lost Access to PEPFAR-Supported HIV Drugs During the US Foreign Assistance Pause The US State Department has collected data on the performance of PEPFAR in 2025, but is yet to officially release it. But some data has become available...

An indictment of UK Labour. Quite possibly their aid cuts will be more dramatic than coming US ones. Shameful: www.cgdev.org/blog/uk-aid-...

New Blog for CGD: US Aid Cuts Fueled Conflict in Africa www.cgdev.org/blog/us-aid-...

Interesting new NBER paper on the negative life expectancy impacts of NAFTA: www.nber.org/system/files...

Interesting heresy on how to reduce housing costs: eduardoelreportero.substack.com/p/how-not-to...

More affluent countries are better governed on average. Which makes this all the more puzzling. From: www.gallup.com/analytics/70...

Economists have debated whether aid works of not for years. All of a sudden, with the World's richest man & the World's most powerful man, gutting US aid, the question of whether aid works or not is an urgent one. Does aid work? I try and answer this: open.substack.com/pub/terencew...

note to self. Inequality data in NZ: www.inequality.org.nz/understand/w...

The UK government is thinking about dismantling the Independent Commission for Aid Impact. Why? Do they actually want their aid to help fewer people? @leecrawfurd.bsky.social & Andrew Mitchell make the case for saving the ICAI: www.cgdev.org/blog/dont-sc...

Useful from @cgdev.org on problems with poverty measures: www.cgdev.org/blog/what-do...

From @cgdev.org interesting interviews with aid "agency" staff including MFAT. Warning small samples. But WRT to MFAT, who generally thought they were wonderful, surprise surprise...

New Blog: Congress: Please Help Restore Lifesaving Data Systems The US Congress has restored considerable global health and humanitarian finance. But it needs to ensure the data is available to use it effectively and monitor delivery. (1/n)...

So now we can see the official report of what happened to PEPFAR coverage in 2025 compared to 2024. 14.5m fewer people received testing and counselling (leading to a 400k drop in positive tests) 100,000 fewer on ARVs 1.6m drop in ART patients with documented viral load

New Zealand's Foreign Minister is a try hard Trumpest. He's only chasing votes. But his thirst for power will hurt the real world: open.substack.com/pub/terencew...

Our health care system is collapsing. Housing is unaffordable. 60% of people are living paycheck to paycheck. Instead of trying to "run" Venezuela, Trump might try to do a better job running the United States.

Six reasons why Trump’s attack on Venezuela was very wrong:

This on deservedness and economic outcomes from @mattbruenig.bsky.social is great. But I'm surprised - given the importance of nature, nurture, chance & whether we have free will all - that anyone ever tries to make the cased for desert based theories of justice. mattbruenig.com/2025/10/03/d...

After a long decline people are starting to donate more to Australian aid NGOs. devpolicy.org/the-fall-and... @amitam.bsky.social

Trump administration happy to lob insanely expensive missiles into Nigeria to little effect. Trump administration equally happy to cut inexpensive, effective peace-building aid project next door in Benin. Great article from @timhirschelburns.bsky.social timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/trump-bomb...

Earlier estimates suggested USAID program cancellations could lead to up to 700,000 additional deaths annually. New analysis by @charlesjkenny.bsky.social and @justsand.bsky.social finds the toll could reach 1 million now and 1.6 million with future cuts. Learn more: https://go.cgdev.org/4s0Z8w7

Useful from CDG, costs and tradeoffs of increased defence spending. Depressing that, at the end of the day, there's always more money for guns, and never enough for aid. www.cgdev.org/blog/peace-d...

Everything's dating fast but this from @markleongoldberg.bsky.social & Elizabeth Dickinson is the best analysis I've hear of the Venezuela crisis and the challenges of governing the country now: www.globaldispatches.org/p/the-us-jus...

Good analysis of what's happened to US aid, and what the consequences have been: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Economic development has its sceptics, in this article I look into the case for and against: open.substack.com/pub/terencew...

Trump administration sacks several US ambassadors in Pacific countries: www.rnz.co.nz/internationa...

A grim update on the number of lives potentially lost thanks to US aid cuts from @cgdev.org: www.cgdev.org/blog/update-...

This is spot on from @charlesjkenny.bsky.social. "Aid isn't fairy dust", what it should and shouldn't be focused on: www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...

In parts of academia international development is viewed as a mere construct -- a discourse of control. This is nonsense, as I explain in my most recent Substack post development is real and it matters. open.substack.com/pub/terencew...

Want to know what the real -- actually existing -- China wants? There were two great presentations on this at the Australasian Aid Conference. You can watch them via the links in my newsletter: open.substack.com/pub/terencew...

What if we dealt with the actually existing China in the Pacific rather than the phantom menace that haunts Wellington and Canberra? A barnstorming presentation from Eric Olander at the Australasian Aid Conference summarised neatly in this blog: devpolicy.org/china-the-gl...

What's the state of democracy like in the Pacific? Listen to this Devpol podcast to hear the answers: devpolicytalks.simplecast.com/episodes/pac...

File under "Late Capitalism Afterall". Via Gallup polling

i’m not crying you’re crying xkcd: Fifteen Years

Incredibly proud of this 🤩🥹! So much work and determination behind this publication. What a journey this was! Honored to have done it with you @vickybarone.bsky.social 🚀❤️

Might be of interest @robertwrighter.bsky.social

Argument well made in this NY-Times op-ed that China, whilst not benevolent, is not an expansionary power. Link to interesting journal article too. It would be great if the Australia/NZ Fright Industry paid attention. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/o...

“Food, doctors, and everything else are desperately needed”

An interesting new paper: would people be willing to trade off democracy against things such as affluence and security? journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

File under: "well who could have seen that coming". The Billions to Trillions agenda of using aid to crowd in private finance for development hasn't worked: devpolicy.org/beyond-aid-p...

New Zealand businesses are lobbying the government to tie more of its aid to the Pacific. In this post I explain why this would be a terrible idea: open.substack.com/pub/terencew...?

Dr @terencewoodnz.bsky.social “said that New Zealand's aid approach, amid an ever-increasing scarcity, is becoming more transactional rather than being based on a larger vision for long-term outcomes”. 😬 www.rnz.co.nz/internationa...

Welcome to the new world of aid influencing. This from @timhirschelburns.bsky.social makes me think I need to get out more often, or actually stay in more often and watch YouTube: timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/mrbeast-is...

Note to self THEA (used to be CLEA) has election data on a lot of Pacific countries: electiondataarchive.org/wp-content/u...

More interesting research on NBER: homeless shelters help www.nber.org/papers/w34376

Interesting research: cellphone bans are not unproblematic, but they do seem to lead to better education outcomes: www.nber.org/papers/w34388

Prediction: this is all going to end in tears - www.cgdev.org/blog/other-o...

i desperately want everyone involved in the destruction of USAID to have to, st the very least, answer to the american people for the suffering and misery they have caused apnews.com/article/myan...