1/4 Very interesting and timely paper. The authors find that "industrial policies lead to trade surpluses if the government pursues an unbalanced policy mix, such that domestic demand does not rise as much as supply. These surpluses are absorbed by the rest... bw.bse.eu/wp-content/u...

🤷🏻‍♂️

My letter in the Economist pushes back on its take on Europe and the second China shock. The Economist lays out the profound pressure China is putting on EU manufacturing, but then proceeds to advocate the EU give up and switch to services à la the UK. That feels thin. Pleased they published it.

So what the hell just happened? Two things: Ukraine will get 90 billion euros. And Orbán did not veto that even though he could have. How so? Short thread:

Should give serious pause to those who want euro or EU exits. But of course most of them don't look at research in the first place. @pgkroegerbb.bsky.social

1. Clampdown on benefit cheats! 2. Clampdown on benefit cheats doesn’t work. 3. Blitz on red tape! 4. Blitz on red tape doesn’t work. 5. Go to 1. Currently we’re between 3 and 4. I’m confident we’ll be back at 1 by Christmas.

In other words, the whole legal and political hassle of taking the money from Euroclear (via an EU bond), and handing the money to Ukraine could be avoided by just issuing an EU bond, handing *that* money to Ukraine, and servicing it from the returns on Euroclear's assets.

📢We are hiring at ISEG! 2 Assistant Professor Positions in Economics (any field) More info: econjobmarket.org/positions/11... Get in touch if you have any questions and join us in beautiful Lisbon! 🇵🇹 Please RT #EconSky

New paper out with a blueprint for a proper European industrial policy in the automotive sector. The urgent issue is to offset geopolitical demand shocks - coordinated EV subsidies of the big four (FR FR ES IT) could cover 70% of the EU market. Will tweet more later :)

Why do rustbelts vote radical right? Studying the German Ruhr area, @nilsblossey.bsky.social, @lstoetze.bsky.social and I show: it’s not just about deindustrialization, but also about the original industrialization. Where coal is buried deeper and mining started later, the AfD is stronger today 1/12

Helpfully I explained to some pointing tourists that Glaswegians had much longer legs back in the day

Imagine an alternative universe where, after WW1, the advisors of Woodrow Wilson would have prevailed

Europe’s astonishing drop in illegal migration "In the first eight months of this year 112,000 people crossed illegally into Europe, down 21% from a year earlier. The drop is an even more impressive 52% from the comparable period in 2023" www.economist.com/internationa... From The Economist

But I was told that Keir Starmer’s conference speech marked a pivot away from imitating Reform and towards a bold new liberal something! I WAS PROMISED! on.ft.com/4mGqFPF

Just saw an epic TV rant by Robert #Habeck on the state of the German economy from May 2019. He was very prescient, and basically everyone around the table thought he’d gone mad. There is a reason why Germany is in this mess.

Striking stat from @kellycnbc.bsky.social on this: The rise in treasury yields since Trump’s tariffs were announced leads to an increase in US debt interest payments that is larger than all the DOGE savings.

Some thoughts on the strategic rationale behind the "Brandmauer” – the cordon sanitaire vis-à-vis the AfD – and the challenges associated with maintaining it. Seems pertinent, given that senior CDU/CSU figures regularly float the idea of ditching it and exploring avenues for closer cooperation.

Critical reactions on this. That’s fine I get it. Worth gauging and probing US intentions for Europe I’d say. US provides demand, China mainly supply, making the former despite everything a more logical dance partner for trade surplus EU…

"We zitten in een polycrisis: begroting, veiligheid, wonen,... Is het wel de moment? Maar wat we aan het doen waren, die voorlopige regering, was erger." @willemsas.bsky.social. Is een minderheidsregering in Brussel de oplossing? Bekijk hier de #terzake reportage: vrtnws.be/p.j1Zeo9N6dGx

‘It’s become almost the norm’: Misinformation ramping up during election, expert www.ctvnews.ca/edmonton/alb... Me: "...if you feel like something is playing to your rage, playing to your grievances, those kinds of emotional responses should be a red flag to pause & to double check the veracity..."

On that market response to Germany deploying fiscal policy and the plethora of obviously wrong market reads from Germany and the Netherlands. @rajakorman.bsky.social nails it here in the FT. The best part? 1/2

“76% of respondents believe the EU needs greater resources to effectively address future challenges.” www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

Hope that Merz and Co realise that Germanys core engineering sectors are not only rapidly losing market share to China’s subsidised and increasingly sophisticated competition in global export markets. But also in the truly indispensable European home market. 1/3

We also thought Hungary / Orban would not be so stupid to kill the country’s best University. Yet, it did chase CEU out of the country. Never underestimate zealots’ and idiots’ ability for self-harm, nor what a politician is willing to do to cement his power.

Thousands took to the streets of Hungary’s capital, Budapest, today in a massive opposition protest, demanding the resignation of pro-Russian PM Orbán. Opposition leader Péter Magyar declared that those who betray their own nation “should end up in the dustbin of history.”

In truth the greens should get a huge amount of credit. For pushing back against the original CDU/SPD candy-handout. For ensuring the spending also provides the future-oriented investments Germany so badly needs. And for ultimately agreeing despite not governing - putting country and the EU first.

Dutch parliament speaks out against joint borrowing at EU level to strengthen European defence. From frugal four to frugal one.

Even rustig afwachten. Wat CDU en SPD op tafel hebben gelegd als uitgaven was een gedrocht - pensioensverhogingen, snoepjes uitdelen, niks aan moderniserende investeringen (maar ja wel defensie). Goed dat de groenen er nog even druk op zetten (ja ze zijn ook boos over proces maar dat terzijde).

The difference between Keynesian stimulus Vs Liz Truss and the "moron premium" in a nutshell

Mancur Olson distinguished between stationary vs roving bandits. A roving bandit rapes and pillages then moves on. A stationary bandit takes the long view, cultivating the economy so they can maximize their extraction over the long-term. Mobutu eg was a roving bandit. I fear that's what we have now.

Exciting news for tax evasion and money laundering!

This 100 % this.

The Russian-backed government of Serbia under pressure tonight as massive protests fill the center of Belgrade. It seems that only the US hasn't gotten the note that Russian-backed fascism just isn't cool anymore.

After the Oval Office disaster, let’s remember : Europe is wealthy, Europe is strong, If it wants to, Europe can deal with this. Demand EU leaders take action! How? 👇

Support for the Far Right is highest in countries with the least immigration. (Via The Economist)

The world is on fire and look what the Belgians talk about

If one attempts to fit a simple regression model for the AfD's gain since 2021, other predictors appear to be more robust than the GDP per capita of a constituency. Per capita disposable income also seems to be a weak predictor and quickly becomes insignificant when control variables are added.

Our leader on #Merz and the debt brake. Get rid of it, and do it now. www.economist.com/leaders/2025...

Waar komt onze staatsschuld vandaan, aan wie zijn we die verschuldigd, en wanneer is dat een probleem? Ik antwoordde op die vraag vorige vrijdag op @radio1vrt.bsky.social: www.vrt.be/vrtmax/luist...

Prof Wim Marneffe over regeldruk en administratieve vereenvoudiging in @tijd.be

🇮🇹 schrijver Umberto Eco zei ooit dat Europeanen ‘gevaccineerd zijn door de ervaringen van alle oorlogen op ons grondgebied’. Met het besef dat macht boven recht gruwelijke gevolgen kan hebben, zijn onze voorouders het Europese samenwerkingsverband gestart. Laat we dat Europa nu weer groot maken.

Our article 'A Crisis of Political Trust?' led by @viktorv.bsky.social is now out in @bjpols.bsky.social! We use >3,000 surveys in 143 countries between 1958 and 2019, finding that trust in representative institutions has generally been declining in recent decades. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Iedereen middenklasser! Laten we vooral niet vergeten dat 79% van de beursgenoteerde aandelen in handen zijn van de top 10% rijkste Belgen. Meest ongelijk verdeelde deel van het totale vermogen. De sterkste schouders dragen wel degelijk een meerwaardebelasting. Als ze er ooit komt. 🥲

Political trust is likely in global decline. What are the consequences? Our experiment suggests low-trusters more often accept info saying immigration threatens the welfare state. Trust matters more than most economic, cultural, and contextual factors - with @finseraas.bsky.social & Atle Haugsgjerd

Welfare States and Moral Character: Lost Wallet Edition journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

This approach changes the nature of the conflict: it’s not country vs. country anymore— a sure recipe to inflame nationalist tensions, with all the risks involved— but consumers vs. oligarchs Consumers of Mexico and Canada, unite to make Musk pay! /end

De nieuwe armoedecijfers zijn er. In 2023 leefde nog 12,3% van de bevolking met een inkomen onder de armoedegrens, vandaag is dat verder gezakt naar 11,5%. In 2019 was dat nog 14,8%. Een daling met 3,3 procentpunt of 22 procent: goed nieuws! Maar er is een maar. 🧵 statbel.fgov.be/nl/themas/hu...

An incredible photo from Berlin this evening. An estimated 100,000 have been on the streets in the German capital today to protest against the Far Right and fascism in Europe. #Resist (📸 Ricarda Lang)

4/ The biggest surprise? Media indoctrination and civil liberties repression are the most predictive of autocratic survival. These findings have big implications for “information autocracies” in the digital age.