New blog post! It’s on why Rachel Reeves would be wrong to scrap the custom duty exemption for low value imports. It would: exacerbate the cost of living crisis; hammer small businesses; and be an attack on free trade. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/the-uk-sho...

Again, keep forgetting to use Bluesky but here is a new blog post. It's on why the government should unfreeze Fuel Duty before phasing it out and replacing it with road pricing. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/when-is-a-...

I keep forgetting to use Bluesky but I've written a new blog post. The two-child benefit cap is cruel and has failed on its own misguided terms. It should be abolished. This should be funded by scrapping the State Pension Triple Lock. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-we-sho...

Keep forgetting to use Bluesky. Anyway, here are my thoughts on the government's Trade Strategy. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/some-thoug...

New blog post! It's on why the government is wrong to clamp down on cheap imports. Instead it should move towards unilateral free trade and (probably) abolish the Trade Remedies Authority. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-to-ab...

New blog post! It's on why I've changed my mind on British Steel and why I now think that (short term) nationalisation is the least bad option. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-ive-ch...

New blog post! It's on Trump's Nixon moment and why the tariff war is actually a currency war. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-for-a...

Is the #UK government heading in the right direction on #housing? To solve the housing crisis, we need to make better use of existing urban housing, build more in cities and build on the green belt to reach #NetZero @benramanauskas.bsky.social @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social

A typically anti-UK diatribe from the EU-ultra equivalent of the Brexit ultras, both of them being agreed that they would like geography not to exist. @chrisgrey.bsky.social article is worth reading on the reset.

This week I wrote for @unherd.com on why the UK shouldn't retaliate against Trump's tariffs. Instead if the government wants to support the steel industry then it needs to look at ways of lowering energy costs. unherd.com/newsroom/uk-...

Europe doesn't need any more wake-up calls. It's awake. It's just very comfortable in its warm bed and procrastinating on getting up in the hopes something turns up to magically take care of all the chores it knows it should be getting on with.

If today ends with tariffs - purportedly needed because of drug smuggling and illegal immigration - placed on Canada but not Mexico then I will be very confused.

Britain has seen a significant divergence between its goods and services trade since Brexit. Here's 4 things you need to know 👇 Read the full analysis: https://buff.ly/3VjVEX3

JUST PUBLISHED: Trump's announced tariffs—25% on Mexico & Canada (besides Canadian energy, at 10%) + a 10% increase in tariffs on China—would be the largest tax increase in at least a generation. It would cost the median US household more than $1,200 a year. #PIIECharts

New @nberpubs: "Divergent Paths: Differential Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases on Individuals with Disabilities" https://buff.ly/4hlQtP9 "large minimum wage increases significantly reduce employment and labor force participation for individuals of all working ages with severe di…

'Happy' memories of working on the UKGT and being lobbied by Big Margarine

Would mean that the UK is subsidising the US (in goods)

Sad to see so many conservatives and former free traders support Trump's tariffs just because they might not be levied on us. As I wrote back in November, it's not in the UK's interests to support policies which make our trading patners poorer. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/trump-and-...

Never a good sign when I get asked by a producer to be interviewed on the radio. Not least of all because it means they've gone through their list and @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social, @davidheniguk.bsky.social, @explaintrade.com, et al are clearly busy!

New blog post! Protectionism did NOT make America great. Levying high tariffs is what failed states and developing nations do and so using them to replace other taxes is a terrible idea. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/will-tarif...

I do not understand kale consumption. There are hundred other green things which are better than kale. Mustard greens, rapini, the non-broccoli thing sometimes called 'Chinese broccoli', leaves of the turnip plant, snow pea stems, etc. Every single one of them better than kale no matter the prep

I've given this a quick read and I do think it's worth your time (despite Chris disagreing with me)! I'll probably respond properly in a few days.

Building houses leads to lower rents. (Latest in a near-infinite series.) www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

One benefit to recent weeks is they confirm how right I was to leave the civil service. I'd hate to be there now, working on the onslaught of attacks on excellence, academies and parental rights. Policies that will harm tens of thousands of children. www.edrith.co.uk/p/on-leaving...

Ultimately I'm sure that @benramanauskas.bsky.social is right that the UK has to choose the US over China, and that this is the real choice, but equally we have to accept that US the attempt to isolate China isn't going to work. Conundrum. capx.co/labour-must-...

Went on a date and it was going really well until I told them about my weekend plans (flying with wings made for me by my dad with feathers and beeswax). Think I must have given them the Icarus...

The reason I cannot take too seriously the claim that globalisation started earlier than the 19th century when market integration indices shoot up is because pre-industrial pseudo-globalisation never resulted in an Italian version of xiao long bao; and no, filled pastas in brodo aren’t close enough

“Buying Greenland actually makes a lot of sense, in this piece I shall …”

The UK has acceded to CPTPP. I played a very small role in this back in 2021 so it's wonderful to see the process finally completed. Here is a post I wrote a while ago on why I think this is significant for 🇬🇧 even if the economic gains are modest. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/cptpp-find...

One from the weekend. "Those who despair at the UK’s inability to spawn a Facebook and want our kids to learn Visual Basic in nursery, often seem dismissive of our creative industries" Indeed. Why does the UK so consistently talk down our strengths? www.ft.com/content/801e...

New blog post! It is very unlikely to happen but if Trump really wants to challenge China then he'd get the US more involved in the WTO and (re)join CPTPP. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/rip-mfn

One of the best thing you can do to maintain or improve the political viability of your favorite economic policy is to not pass it during a global burst of inflation.

Please tell me that the South Korean President's supporters call themselves 'Yoonatics'?!

The historical institutions take on current events.

I'm declaring martial law... for an hour!

Imagine trying to do a military coup in 🇬🇧. The OBR would force you out by tea time.

New blog post! The reason why Coca Cola in the US uses High Fructose Corn Syrup is protectionism. If Robert F. Kennedy Jnr wants to change that then Trump will have to embrace free trade. Good luck with that! opportunitylost.substack.com/p/how-to-get...

They should show MasterChef but dub Gregg Wallace's voice like they did with Gerry Adams.

Would save money. Ease pressure on councils. And reduce human suffering. Only reason for not doing this is bureaucratic conservatism and political timidity. www.standard.co.uk/news/winter-...

James Bond movies never show the part where the supervillain collects government subsidies to build his death tech.

This is (obviously) complete nonsense. DWP Research Paper 18, by me and Simon French, analysed the impact of EU migration on jobs and wages in 2005.

New blog post! 5 reasons why the UK should not retaliate against Trump's tariffs. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/the-uk-sho...

The increase in disability and poor health in low-to-middle income families means that more people are also taking on caring responsibilities. One-in-eight (12 per cent) people in a low-to-middle income family care for an ill, disabled or elderly adult, more than in higher income families.

I've written a piece for @capx.co. Javier Milei is doing a good job in Argentina. The UK could learn a lot from his policies. capx.co/what-can-the...

TOP TIP! If you can't get hold of Tangfastics or if you're tired of chewing, you can recreate the taste (if not the experience) by adding sliced lemon and honey to boiling water.

It's snowing again in Huddersfield. More like 'Snowvember' amirite?!

New blog pot! Inheritance Tax is cruel, distortionary, and does nothing to increase social mobility. It should be scrapped. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/death-and-...

Important new analysis from @jreland.bsky.social at @ukandeu.bsky.social - the new UK government is embarking on a path of greater alignment with EU rules/regulations. media.ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/u...

Surging rents are just one part of Britain's endless betrayal of its young people. The country is now near-unliveable in parts if you're under 40.

This is good work from the Resolution Foundation and shines a light on how low LFS response rates have dropped. This is causing all sorts of problems for policy makers as we have no real idea how many people are actually in work and why they might have dropped out of the labour force.