New blog post! It's on why the Bank of England should cut interest rates this week - even though it almost certainly won't. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/what-shoul...

New blog post! Starmer's whisky trade deal with China is probably unlawful. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/is-starmer...

New blog post! It's on why Gordon Brown was right to sell off the country's gold reserves. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/gordon-bro...

Back in 2024 I wrote that Trump 2.0 wouldn't mean a choice between 🇺🇸&🇪🇺 for 🇬🇧. Instead, in terms of trade, Britain's choice was always going to be between the US and China. Think it's held up pretty well. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/the-uks-ac...

New blog post! It's why Trump is right on trade. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/trump-is-r...

New blog post! It's on why the UK rejoining the EU Customs Union would be a mistake. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/rejoining-...

New blog post! Die Hard is a Christmas film. It also has a lot to teach us about free trade and the folly of protectionism. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/what-if-di...

New blog post! It's time for the Bank of England to be bold and cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/what-shoul...

New blog post! The bond vigilantes are the unsung heroes of the financial and political system. Imposing fiscal discipline on our profligate politicians. We should thank them - and heed their warning. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/in-defence...

New blog post! The MPC was wrong to not cut interest rates on Thursday. The Budget is going to cause further damage to the labour market and demand will be far weaker than forecast by the Bank of England. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-the-ba...

I keep forgetting to use BlueSky but I'm on the @cityam.bsky.social Shadow MPC. I voted for a 25 basis points cut. In the article I explain why I hope the Bank will also vote for a cut. www.cityam.com/cut-interest...

Finally got around to reading the Policy Exchange how to cut public spending report. A genuinely excellent contribution to the debate. Rather starkly illustrates how hard meaningful cuts to public spending are by using actual numbers rather than weasel words. policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...

I will write more about this Policy Exchange report when I’m back from holiday, but broadly speaking I think it’s the most serious thinking from the British right on how you’d cut spending and the test for Con and Reform is “if you don’t like this, shut up about tax rises”.

I have pretty solid admiration for this PX report by @igmansfield.bsky.social @benramanauskas.bsky.social et al, not because I love everything in it, but its honest about how if you want to cut spending, you must do hard unpopular things. policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...

New blog post! Declining cheese exports to 🇯🇵 teaches us 5 things: FX matters; agri tariffs are too high; non-tariff barriers are a real pain; 🇬🇧 needs to get better at export promotion; & trade takes place between firms & households, not governments. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/brie-trade...

New blog post! It’s on why Rachel Reeves would be wrong to scrap the custom duty exemption for low value imports. It would: exacerbate the cost of living crisis; hammer small businesses; and be an attack on free trade. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/the-uk-sho...

Again, keep forgetting to use Bluesky but here is a new blog post. It's on why the government should unfreeze Fuel Duty before phasing it out and replacing it with road pricing. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/when-is-a-...

I keep forgetting to use Bluesky but I've written a new blog post. The two-child benefit cap is cruel and has failed on its own misguided terms. It should be abolished. This should be funded by scrapping the State Pension Triple Lock. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-we-sho...

Keep forgetting to use Bluesky. Anyway, here are my thoughts on the government's Trade Strategy. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/some-thoug...

New blog post! It's on why the government is wrong to clamp down on cheap imports. Instead it should move towards unilateral free trade and (probably) abolish the Trade Remedies Authority. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-to-ab...

New blog post! It's on why I've changed my mind on British Steel and why I now think that (short term) nationalisation is the least bad option. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-ive-ch...

New blog post! It's on Trump's Nixon moment and why the tariff war is actually a currency war. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-for-a...

Is the #UK government heading in the right direction on #housing? To solve the housing crisis, we need to make better use of existing urban housing, build more in cities and build on the green belt to reach #NetZero @benramanauskas.bsky.social @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social

A typically anti-UK diatribe from the EU-ultra equivalent of the Brexit ultras, both of them being agreed that they would like geography not to exist. @chrisgrey.bsky.social article is worth reading on the reset.

This week I wrote for @unherd.com on why the UK shouldn't retaliate against Trump's tariffs. Instead if the government wants to support the steel industry then it needs to look at ways of lowering energy costs. unherd.com/newsroom/uk-...

Europe doesn't need any more wake-up calls. It's awake. It's just very comfortable in its warm bed and procrastinating on getting up in the hopes something turns up to magically take care of all the chores it knows it should be getting on with.

If today ends with tariffs - purportedly needed because of drug smuggling and illegal immigration - placed on Canada but not Mexico then I will be very confused.

Britain has seen a significant divergence between its goods and services trade since Brexit. Here's 4 things you need to know 👇 Read the full analysis: https://buff.ly/3VjVEX3

JUST PUBLISHED: Trump's announced tariffs—25% on Mexico & Canada (besides Canadian energy, at 10%) + a 10% increase in tariffs on China—would be the largest tax increase in at least a generation. It would cost the median US household more than $1,200 a year. #PIIECharts

New @nberpubs: "Divergent Paths: Differential Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases on Individuals with Disabilities" https://buff.ly/4hlQtP9 "large minimum wage increases significantly reduce employment and labor force participation for individuals of all working ages with severe di…

'Happy' memories of working on the UKGT and being lobbied by Big Margarine

Would mean that the UK is subsidising the US (in goods)

Sad to see so many conservatives and former free traders support Trump's tariffs just because they might not be levied on us. As I wrote back in November, it's not in the UK's interests to support policies which make our trading patners poorer. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/trump-and-...

Never a good sign when I get asked by a producer to be interviewed on the radio. Not least of all because it means they've gone through their list and @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social, @davidheniguk.bsky.social, @explaintrade.com, et al are clearly busy!

New blog post! Protectionism did NOT make America great. Levying high tariffs is what failed states and developing nations do and so using them to replace other taxes is a terrible idea. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/will-tarif...

I do not understand kale consumption. There are hundred other green things which are better than kale. Mustard greens, rapini, the non-broccoli thing sometimes called 'Chinese broccoli', leaves of the turnip plant, snow pea stems, etc. Every single one of them better than kale no matter the prep

I've given this a quick read and I do think it's worth your time (despite Chris disagreing with me)! I'll probably respond properly in a few days.

Building houses leads to lower rents. (Latest in a near-infinite series.) www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

One benefit to recent weeks is they confirm how right I was to leave the civil service. I'd hate to be there now, working on the onslaught of attacks on excellence, academies and parental rights. Policies that will harm tens of thousands of children. www.edrith.co.uk/p/on-leaving...

Ultimately I'm sure that @benramanauskas.bsky.social is right that the UK has to choose the US over China, and that this is the real choice, but equally we have to accept that US the attempt to isolate China isn't going to work. Conundrum. capx.co/labour-must-...

Went on a date and it was going really well until I told them about my weekend plans (flying with wings made for me by my dad with feathers and beeswax). Think I must have given them the Icarus...

The reason I cannot take too seriously the claim that globalisation started earlier than the 19th century when market integration indices shoot up is because pre-industrial pseudo-globalisation never resulted in an Italian version of xiao long bao; and no, filled pastas in brodo aren’t close enough

“Buying Greenland actually makes a lot of sense, in this piece I shall …”

The UK has acceded to CPTPP. I played a very small role in this back in 2021 so it's wonderful to see the process finally completed. Here is a post I wrote a while ago on why I think this is significant for 🇬🇧 even if the economic gains are modest. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/cptpp-find...

One from the weekend. "Those who despair at the UK’s inability to spawn a Facebook and want our kids to learn Visual Basic in nursery, often seem dismissive of our creative industries" Indeed. Why does the UK so consistently talk down our strengths? www.ft.com/content/801e...

New blog post! It is very unlikely to happen but if Trump really wants to challenge China then he'd get the US more involved in the WTO and (re)join CPTPP. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/rip-mfn

One of the best thing you can do to maintain or improve the political viability of your favorite economic policy is to not pass it during a global burst of inflation.

Please tell me that the South Korean President's supporters call themselves 'Yoonatics'?!

The historical institutions take on current events.

I'm declaring martial law... for an hour!