New paper out in @jamanetworkopen.com In 2022, there were 905,159 more deaths in the US than we'd expect if Americans had death rates of other high-income countries. That difference has nearly tripled since 1999. COVID played a role but gap was widening well before 2020. tinyurl.com/y4ecvfrs

This paper is incredible. The question, the data, the methods. Congrats to @jacob-bor.bsky.social and team! Can't wait to teach it in the methods class next year!

A great write-up on brand-new research I was involved in. We used a really different approach from the ones that we & many others have used previously to estimate how many Covid deaths there *really* were--almost 20% more than known. Our results broadly accord w others but add new demographic detail

The COVID-19 pandemic’s early death toll was much higher than the official U.S. count, according to a new study that spotlights dramatic disparities in the uncounted deaths. apnews.com/article/covi...

19% more deaths from Covid in the US than counted thru 2021 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Preston’s death was first labeled an overdose. The autopsy found no drugs. Likely an asthma attack amid LA’s wildfires. Our recent analysis suggests 440 excess deaths—far beyond the official 31. We’re undercounting climate’s toll. @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

I also recommend this great piece in the @us.theconversation.com by @wrigleyfield.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social & colleagues walking through some of their great work to counter this myth of "overcounting" coming out of previous news cycle. theconversation.com/covid-19-dea...

Persistent minimizing of the COVID death toll hits me especially hard in the #demography feels. To be clear: ➡️ Over one million Americans died of COVID-19. ➡️ Official COVID deaths were likely undercounted, not overcounted. jenndowd.substack.com/p/how-many-p...

As a mortality researcher, I haven’t generally paid a lot of attention to people my own age (elder Millennial here). That’s, unfortunately, changing. (With @astokespop.bsky.social and Jacob Bor)

New study 🚨 out in @jama.com! We find that California wildfires🔥in January may have contributed 440 excess deaths in Los Angeles County. This estimate significantly exceeds the 30 direct fatalities linked to these events jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... @pophel.bsky.social @helsinki.fi

Study: 30 direct fatalities from the L.A. wildfires, but 440 deaths from January 5 to February 1, 2025 attributable to the wildfires--likely reflecting "a combination of factors, including increased exposure to poor air quality and health care delays and interruptions..." 🛟 😷 health policy

An estimated 440 excess deaths were attributed to the January 2025 wildfires in Los Angeles County, underscoring indirect health effects and the need for improved mortality tracking. ja.ma/4oFM3af #MedSky

NEW PAPER: "Evolution of the US nonmetropolitan mortality disadvantage by sex, state, and year, 1999‐2019" in @jruralhealth.bsky.social w/Associates Irma Elo & Samuel Preston @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social K Hempstead @astokespop.bsky.social doi.org/10.1111/jrh.... pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...

The U.S. once saw steady declines in mortality—but progress stalled around 2010. New research: In 2023 alone, there were 525,505 more deaths than expected had pre-2010 trends continued. 91% were among adults without a BA degree. Most were due to CVD and diabetes. jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Thanks to The Oklahoman (www.oklahoman.com) for running my opinions on the new budget and impacts on Alzheimer's research (bit.ly/4mZXrg7) and public health progress for all of us. #PublicHealth #EndAlzheimers #Epidemiology #ScienceHomecoming

For 40 years, Americans have lived shorter lives than people in other rich countries. For 10 years, that's been rapidly getting worse. New research: in 2022-2023, there were 1.5 million "missing Americans," who died--but wouldn't have, if America didn't have such uniquely high death rates.

New study with @jacob-bor.bsky.social @wrigleyfield.bsky.social & colleagues estimates that US saw 705,331 excess deaths in 2023—a number in line w/ rising pre-pandemic trend. Over 1.5 million deaths could’ve been averted in 2022–23 if US mortality matched peer nations. 🧵 (1/5) tinyurl.com/569pr9ty

Excess deaths in the US vs other high-income countries. Coming down relative to prior US data but still the outlier jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

The biggest project I've worked on for the last chunk of years was just published. It asks, how big are US Black-white lifespan differences? This might seem like a narrow question. I hope to convince you by the end that there are answers you didn't anticipate. And I hope some of them will move you.

A neat paper by @wrigleyfield.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social and team looks into this post 2010 period, showing that death rates from many different conditions increased relative to previous trends. More evidence of generalized #populationhealth stressors. jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Excess mortality rates of U.S. Americans age 25-44 (relative to 1999-2010 baseline) by cause of death from @wrigleyfield.bsky.social and co-authors from new article here: jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

1/ How should public health think about new GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic? Do pharmaceutical solutions undermine public health prevention efforts? In @milbankfund.bsky.social, Neil Mehta & I consider what new anti-obesity drugs might mean for population health. 🔗 www.milbank.org/quarterly/op...

New study with @wrigleyfield.bsky.social & colleagues finds that excess deaths among young U.S. adults have surged since 2011, accelerating during the pandemic and remaining high in 2023. Our research shows that this crisis extends far beyond drug overdoses. 🧵 (1/6) jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

U.S. Mortality trends in the young, ages 25-44 years jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... Drug overdoses are the leading cause of excess mortality. There were substantial numbers of Covid fatalities in this age group during the peak pandemic

New today: Death rates for Americans aged 25-44 have been rising since 2010. Their mortality is now 70% higher than it would be had pre-2011 mortality declines continued. w Rafeya Raquib, Katie Berry, Keeley Morris, & @astokespop.bsky.social 1/ jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

#MELODEM is accepting applications--by 1/27/25--to participate in this year's Annual In-Person Meeting! The meeting features: Jun 23-25: presentations w extensive discussion Jun 25-27: hands-on data workshop, involving a subset of participants See deets & apply: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

The first report from our collaboration with the Society of Actuaries (SOA) is now out! @astokespop.bsky.social We look at cause-specific excess mortality in the US and reflect on the most likely explanations for the gap between excess and COVID-19 mortality. www.soa.org/resources/re...

The Department of Demography at the University of California, Berkeley, invites applications for a Postdoctoral Scholar position in the research group of Prof. Ayesha Mahmud. For more info, visit: aprecruit.berkeley.edu/JPF04716

@ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social is accepting applications for Fall 2025 for the PhD program in Demography AND the Graduate Group in Sociology & Demography. Seeking a diverse and strong cohort; applications DUE 12/17/2024. Learn more about the program: www.demog.berkeley.edu/graduate-pro...

IAPHS is where I gave my first oral presentation. Super welcoming community and the annual meeting always brings together prolific researchers across all career stages. If you’re doing work in Population Health Sciences, you should submit an abstract! 🛟🧪 #MedSky #MedEd

I am endlessy fascinated by these new GLP-1 developments-how ironic would it be if these drugs were what reshaped the food industry? (esp. from a upstream-downstream social determinants of health perspective). #episky #publichealth @rmcarpiano.bsky.social

My dissertation "The Demography of Shocks: Migration and Mortality under the Influence of Environmental and Epidemiological Shocks" is now publicly available! repository.upenn.edu/entities/pub...

My first try at a Demography "Starter Pack". There's a limit of 50 contacts, so this is definitely partial. go.bsky.app/FqXNjEh

We have a new faculty opening at Oxford Sociology and Nuffield College — come join us and be my colleague! An Oxford AP is the main faculty grade and a very broad category — covering those just out of PhD to those more senior, incl. Full Professor. www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/article/asso...

“Since Texas’ ban on abortion went into effect, infant deaths in the state increased by nearly 13%, according to a new analysis published on Monday in JAMA Pediatrics. In the rest of the country, infant mortality increased less than 2% over the same period.”

Kudos to @alisongemmill.bsky.social & her team for doing important (but heartbreaking) work on the rise in infant mortality in Texas following its 2021 abortion ban. CNN coverage here: www.cnn.com/2024/06/24/h... Study here: jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Our new AJPH commentary with @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social discusses: 1. Excess mortality estimates and their interpretation 2. How to design an excess mortality analysis 3. Excess mortality as a tool to monitor future health emergencies beyond COVID-19 ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2...

overall mortality is higher vs prepandemic current disparities in mortality: similar* to prepandemic, ie way higher for Black Americans *exception: nonurban mortality is higher than prepandemic by @wrigleyfield.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social in JAMA Netw Open jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

We're now accepting applications to our 10th Annual Workshop on Formal Demography, Jun 3-7, 2024. The workshop covers classic topics incl fertility, mortality, & population dynamics. This year’s special emphasis is on the demography of immigration. populationsciences.berkeley.edu/population-c...

An under-emphasized aspect of preparing for future pandemics (and other disasters): modernize the US’s disastrously patchwork death reporting system

Did the U.S. undercount COVID-19 deaths? Our new study in PNAS finds that: 1. There were approximately 163,000 excess deaths from natural causes other than COVID-19 between Mar 2020 and Aug 2022. 2. Many were unrecognized COVID-19 deaths Thread. www.bu.edu/sph/news/art...

Here's the picture showing how the timing of spikes in excess natural cause deaths NOT due to diagnosed COVID changed in sync (or just a little earlier) than COVID death spikes. What would explain that? If the excess natural cause deaths were basically all undiagnosed COVID.

Amazing work from colleagues (1st author E Paglino, sr author A Stokes) counting the unrecognized COVID deaths www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/.... I'm pasting the maps here b/c everyone loves maps, but the evidence that most convinced me was the timing of excess deaths vs COVID deaths (next skeet).

🚨New article out in PNAS! We find 162,886 more excess deaths from natural causes than COVID-19 deaths in the first 30 mo of the pandemic and provide evidence that many of them are unrecognised COVID-19 deaths @astokespop.bsky.social https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2313661121 (1/1)

I'm trying to write down some of the core public health ideas that I think are truly amazing -ideas I wish were part of popular understanding of health. Here's my first effort: www.linkedin.com/posts/maria-... (forgive slightly maudlin language and AI cover art). Suggestions welcome.

New in PNAS w/ @polizzan.bsky.social we engage w/ recent work by Abrams, Myrskylä & Mehta that highlighted slowing older age mortality driving US life expectancy stagnation since 2010. 1/3 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... #episky #popsky #demography

Come work with me! Looking for an associate or full professor of human and planetary health. You’ll be joint at the Med School and the new Doerr School. More info in the posting. I’m on the search committee, so feel free to email me questions. facultypositions.stanford.edu/en-us/job/49...

An invaluable review paper that brings together recent developments in causal inference and life-course epidemiology.